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A potentially favorable period for France

Jay Kaeppel
2022-03-21
In recent months, the France stock market was hit hard before bouncing in the latest fortnight. Is this a dead-cat bounce? Or are better days ahead for this foreign market? For a clue, we took a closer look at seasonality. The suggested implication was quite clear.

Key Points

  • The French stock market suffered a -25% peak-to-valley decline from late mid-November 2021 into March 2022
  • This market is about to enter a seasonal period of typically favorable performance
  • Ticker EWQ (iShares MSCI France ETF) tracks the MSCI France Index

France

The chart below displays the annual seasonal trend for EWQ (iShares MSCI France ETF). A favorable seasonal period extends from Trading Day of the Year (TDY) #56 through TDY #83. For 2022, this period extends from the close on  3/23 through 5/2.

The chart below displays the growth of $1 invested in EWQ only during this favorable period each year since EWQ started trading in 1996.

The table below displays a summary of performance results.

What the research tells us…

The problem with seasonality is that there is no guarantee that a given seasonal trend will work as it has in the past "this time around." Still, it does offer clues that most investors miss completely and, as a result, can offer an "edge" to alert individuals.

The information detailed above does not guarantee that the French stock market will rally in the weeks ahead. However, it does suggest that a bullish opportunity may be at hand and that investors should not be surprised if the action in French stocks is better than expected in the weeks ahead.

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