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A positive signal for the economy (that most investors are unaware of)

Jay Kaeppel
2026-08-04
Debt, deficits, war, and energy prices are all meaningful factors impacting the stock market and the economy. Nevertheless, one measure of economic strength and its impact on the stock market just flashed an unabashedly favorable signal. Details herein.

Key points:

  • The JK Economic Barometer combines our Macro Index Model with the Leading Economic Indicators to gauge the strength and trend of the economy
  • Not surprisingly, favorable readings tend to be quite favorable for stocks, particularly relative to unfavorable readings
  • This monthly barometer spiked to a high level at the end of August; Historically, this type of action has been a favorable sign for the stock market

The JK Economic Barometer as an economic indicator

The JK Economic Barometer (heretofore JEB for short) is a monthly economic indicator designed to gauge economic conditions by combining leading and current economic signals. It is calculated specifically to reflect the latest economic trends, with no subjective adjustments beyond its defined formula.

It is updated once a month, typically on or shortly after the first trading day of each month-this timing aligns with the monthly update of the Macro Index Model (a key input for the indicator).

Its calculation relies solely on two objective data points: the LEISum indicator (a leading economic signal based on the trend of the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators) and our own

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