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A positive sign for stocks and the economy from the Leading Economic Indicators

Jay Kaeppel
2026-07-06
A positive reversal in the Leading Economic Indicators has typically been a favorable sign for both the economy and the stock market. But, some sectors more than others, one in particular. Details herein.

Key Points:

  • After a prolonged decline, the Conference Board Index of Leading Economic Indicators finally flipped to favorable in the most recent month
  • This recent reversal triggered a favorable signal for our LEISUM indicator
  • The current LEISum indicator reading has typically boded well for stocks in the months ahead, particularly the real estate, technology, energy, and financials sectors
  • Real estate has historically been far and away the top performer; Annual seasonality also bodes well for this sector in the near-term

A quick review of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators

Per Wikipedia:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a

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