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A molehill divergence

Jason Goepfert
2021-04-09

At the risk of making a mountain out of a molehill, there has been a curious drop in the percentage of S&P 500 stocks holding above their 10-day moving averages in the past few sessions.

The index has rallied over the past 3 days, setting new highs, all while almost 20% fewer of its member stocks are trading above their short-term averages. This is pretty unusual. Almost all the others saw either negative or weak returns in the S&P over the next month or so.

Basically every longer-term breadth measure we follow is still pristine and showing excellent participation. This is very short-term and is showing only the beginnings of a divergence. It's worth paying attention to whether this ends up resolving to the upside like every other one in the past 3 months, or finally ends up bleeding into some of the longer-term measures.

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