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A Few More Hopeful Indicator Signals

Jay Kaeppel
2026-04-09
The stock market is struggling of late to hold on to an uptrend. Recent signals from a variety of indicators - including breadth, crude relative to gold, and consumer confidence - offer hope to stock market bulls that things can still play out to the upside. Details herein.

Key points:

  • The character of the market changed recently, with several breadth, interest rate, and price action warnings
  • Nevertheless, as long as the major indexes hold above their longer-term averages, investors and traders can look for favorable indicator signals
  • Recent favorable signals have been flashed by industry group action, crude oil relative to gold, and consumer confidence

Industry % in Bear Market hits a key level

As the name implies, our Industry % in Bear Market indicator shows the percentage of 23 industries that are trading more than 20% below their 52-week highs. This is an important indicator of overall market health. Ironically, a rising trend can represent good news or bad news. When the percentage of industries that are 20% or more below their respective 52-week highs reaches a significant level, it means one of two things. Either a) the overall market is plunging into a broad bear market, or b) a serious intermediate decline may have just about run its course. Unfortunately, there is no way to know for sure which event is taking place solely from this indicator's action. We need confirmation or denial from other indicators, and from watching subsequent price action. Regardless, it is useful to know when this indicator crosses a key level.

The chart below highlights those dates when the 20-period moving average for the Indust

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