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A favorable seasonal window for index traders

Jay Kaeppel
2024-11-20
The stock market is entering a little-known, generally favorable short-term seasonal period. This may have implications for short-term traders, investors sitting on cash, and those thinking about lightening up on their stock holdings. We detail the history and the potential implications herein.

Key points

  • The fourth quarter tends to be favorable for the stock market
  • Specific periods within the fourth quarter have shown to be pretty consistent
  • One such period includes the late November/early December period

Defining the period

The period we will consider here encompasses the following:

  • The last six trading days of November
  • The first three trading days of December

For 2024, this period extends from the close on 2024-11-20 through 2024-12-04.

Measuring historical results

The chart below displays the hypothetical growth of $1 invested in the S&P 500 Index only during this nine-trading day period every year starting in 1942.

A favorable seasonal window for index traders

The chart below displays the same results on a logarithmic scale.

A favorable seasonal window for index traders

The table below displays year-by-year results.

A favorable seasonal window for index traders

The table below summarizes S&P 500 performance during this nine-trading day period.

A favorable seasonal window for index traders

What the research tells us…

The good news is that the S&P 500 has tended to perform well during the late November/early December period. The bad news is that there is no guarantee that things will follow suit in 2024. In any event, aggressive short-term traders should consider giving the bullish case the benefit of the doubt (with reasonable risk management measures in place, of course). Investors with cash to invest might consider doing so sooner rather than later, while investors looking to lighten up on their stock holdings might consider waiting a little longer.

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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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