A coronavirus beneficiary: lumber

Lumber has been an unexpected beneficiary of coronavirus. The residential construction industry has been resilient during this pandemic, with low interest rates and a desire to get out of cities pushing demand for suburban housing. As a result, Lumber prices and sentiment are sky-high:

The only historical cases in which Lumber Optix was this high occurred during the previous runup in 2018. Needless to say, Lumber performed poorly in the months and year ahead:

We can loosen the study's parameters to increase the sample size. The following looks at historical cases in which Lumber Optix > 85:

Forward returns in 1996 and 2018 were weak. The 1992 historical case saw a short term pullback before lumber surged. Since lumber's rally has already gone parabolic, it's hard to imagine a repeat of the 1992 historical case: