A Closer Look at the Gold Miners Santa Claus Rally

Key points

• Most investors have heard reference to the "Santa Claus Rally" in stocks
• Gold-related stocks have also enjoyed a boost during a specific late-year seasonal window
• The typically favorable period for gold miners is starting soon

The Santa Claus Miner rally

Most of us are aware that stocks tend to receive a seasonal tailwind around this time of year. Less well known is that gold-related stocks have also enjoyed consistent gains.

As I define it, the Santa Claus Gold Miner Rally period:

• Begins on the close of the 11th trading day of December and; 
• Extends through the close on the first trading day of January in the New Year 

For 2025, this period extends from the close on December 15th through the close on January 2, 2026.

The data we will use

To test the longest possible history, we will use the Gold Bugs Index (ticker: HUI), for which we have data dating back to 1957. The chart below displays the growth of $1 invested in HUI only from the close of December Trading Day of Month (TDM) #11 through January TDM #1. 

The chart below displays the same data on a logarithmic basis.

The table below summarizes HUI's performance during this late-year seasonal window. Note that big moves of 7% or more have all skewed to the positive side.

GDX as a trading vehicle

Ticker HUI is an index and cannot be traded directly. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (ticker: GDX) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks an index of gold mining stocks, providing traders with a direct way to play the sector. GDX began trading in 2006. Per Vaneck:

GDX seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), which is intended to track the overall performance of companies involved in the gold mining industry.

The chart and table below display GDX performance during this favorable window since inception.

What the research tells us…

The good news is that gold stocks have shown a reliable long-term tendency to rally during the latter part of December. Over 68 years, gold stocks have shown a gain in 7 out of 10 years. So will 2025 be one of the seven out of ten good years? Or one of three not so good? Unfortunately, there is no way to predict. In light of that fact, the correct approach is probably to treat this as a speculative opportunity with a conservative position size and a manageable stop-loss provision, and remember not to take it personally if a loss is incurred occasionally.