SentimenTrader Blog


2020-09-23 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

The U.S. dollar closed above its 50-day moving average for the first time since May. Positive momentum has been hard for the dollar to hold, however, and over the next 1-3 months, the dollar showed a negative return almost every time after ending similar streaks.

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2020-09-23 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

The U.S. dollar closed above its 50-day moving average for the first time since May. Positive momentum has been hard for the dollar to hold, however, and over the next 1-3 months, the dollar showed a negative return almost every time after ending similar streaks.

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2020-09-23 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

For the first time since May, there were more 52-week lows on the NYSE than 52-week highs.

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2020-09-23 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

The USD Dollar cratered as stocks recovered from April - August. Now that stocks are falling, the USD Index has rallied a little:When the USD Index reached a 2 year low in the past, and then rallied above its 50 dma, the Dollar's forward returns over the next 3 months were more bearish than random. But that's because many of the bearish historical cases occurred in the great 2002-2007 USD bear market:As for the S&P 500, this did not have a consistently bearish impact. But perhaps this time ...

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2020-09-23 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

DAX's decline on Monday saw half of its members crater below their lower Bollinger Band:As one would expect, such breadth readings led to better-than-random returns for DAX over the next 3 months:If we look more closely at signals over the past 10 year, DAX's returns over the next 3 months were slightly better. But then again, that's mostly because the past 10 years have been a bull market (barring the hiccup we saw in March).

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2020-09-23 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Silver crashed in March and then soared as global central banks cranked up their printing presses. But nothing goes up forever, and silver has fallen sharply over the past few days:This is typical for silver's price action (surge then plunge). When silver rallied to a 3 year high in the past and then dropped -19% sometime over the next 3 months, silver's forward returns were mixed. However, volatility was extremely high. In a bull market this usually occurred after 2/3's of silver's ...

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2020-09-22 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

For the first time in more than 4 months, there were more 52-week lows than 52-week highs among securities traded on the NYSE. Stocks struggle when this figure is negative; the sole caveat is that after a long streak of positive momentum, the first drop into negative territory has preceded good medium-term returns.; In recent years, the S&P 500 has been highly correlated to changes in the Nasdaq 100. That has plunged lately as the market has shrugged off the influence of big tech stocks. Other times when the correlation between them dropped, it was a shorter-term weight on tech.

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2020-09-22 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

For the first time in more than 4 months, there were more 52-week lows than 52-week highs among securities traded on the NYSE. Stocks struggle when this figure is negative; the sole caveat is that after a long streak of positive momentum, the first drop into negative territory has preceded good medium-term returns.

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2020-09-22 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

In recent years, the S&P 500 has been highly correlated to changes in the Nasdaq 100. That has plunged lately as the market has shrugged off the influence of big tech stocks. Other times when the correlation between them dropped, it was a shorter-term weight on tech.

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2020-09-22 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

The smallest of options traders increased their bets on a market rally last week, even as stocks declined.

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