11 Election Cycle months you should know about

Key points:

• The stock market will soon enter the heart of the four-year election cycle
• A particular 11-month period has typically tended to be favorable for stocks
• The performance of the S&P 500 during the seasonally favorable period is detailed below

A key 11-month period within the four-year Election Cycle

I measure the election cycle using calendar years. This means there are four years in the cycle. They are:

• Post-Election year
• Mid-Term year
• Pre-Election year
• Election year

There are various theories purporting that certain months within the 4-year election cycle are better for stocks than others. The version of the 4-year election cycle that I follow appears in the table below.

For the purpose of this note, we will focus solely on the 11-month period that begins October 1^st of the mid-term year and runs through August of the pre-election year. For the current cycle, this period technically runs from the close on September 30^th, 2026, through August 31^st, 2027.

Testing the key 11-month period

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