The worst six months are even worse during bad (so far) years
Those next 6 months could be a challenge based on the calendar. We've all heard about 'sell in May and go away' and it has been particularly acute during down years. When the S&P 500 was down at least 5% year-to-date through April, the months ahead were skewed more toward risk and less toward reward.
It has been particularly dastardly over the past 60 years. The next 2-6 months were not pleasant.
Contrast that to the returns during the 42 years when the S&P was up at least 5% through April.
When the S&P was down 5% or more heading into the summer, the next 6 months averaged -1.4% with a 47% win rate, compared to an average of +3.6% and 74% win rate during up years.
Seasonality is a tertiary input at best, but it suggests that upside over the summer months might be hard to come by given the already-weak conditions.
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We also looked at:
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