Data &
Technology
Research
Reports
Report Solutions
Reports Library
Actionable
Strategies
Free
Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Free Webinar
Pricing
Company
About
Meet Our Team
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Commodities haven't done this in 50 years

Jason Goepfert
2021-04-26
Over the past year, more than half of major commodity contracts show a gain more than 50%, the highest in more than 50 years.

Commodities continue to be in the news, and rightfully so.

While lumber is getting all the headlines, commodity participation is broad. The 252-day rate of change for the Bloomberg Commodity Index just crossed above 46%, a level last reached in 1980.

The question we should be asking is the following: Does the current surge represent the initial stages of a new commodity bull market like the early 1970s, or does it represent the typical post-recession recovery roadmap? 

When we look at major commodity contracts and measure the percentage of them with a 252-day rate of change of 50% or more, we can see that the percentage has reached the highest level since the 1970s. Never before in the past 50 years have more than half of them jumped by 50% in a year.

Trouble is, this hasn't been sustainable.

When we look at other instances when the year-over-year change in the Bloomberg Commodity Index was very high, the index showed further gains over the next couple of months only 2 times out of 12 precedents.

Stat Box

On Friday, nearly 40% of Health Care stocks were overbought. According to our Backtest Engine, there have been 43 other days with this high of reading in the past 20 years, preceding an average 1-month return in XLV of -0.6%. 


What else we're looking at

  • More details on the commodity surge, including impacts on other markets
  • Among commodities, corn is showing a setup between seasonality, trend, and sentiment
DATA &
TECHnologies
IndicatorEdge
‍
BackTestEdge
‍
Other Tools
‍
DataEdge API
RESEARCH
reports
Research Solution
‍
Reports Library
‍
actionable
Strategies
Trading Strategies
‍
Smart Stock Scanner
‍
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Free Webinar
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
Meet our Team
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
Announcements
‍
FAQ
© 2024 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.