A week of records

Jason Goepfert
2020-03-16

Record volatility

Its hard to overstate the level of volatility investors have suffered across assets. Cross-asset whipsaws are setting records.

Stocks are the most widely held, though, and have the greatest impact on the general population’s sense of well-being. Even before Monday's near-record decline at the open, Friday marked the 8th straight session with an opening gap more than 2% from the prior day’s close.

Over the past week, the S&P 500 futures have gapped open an average of more than 5% from the prior day's close. It's never been higher, even during the depths of 2008.

A week of records

Wicked swings

The stock market has experienced extreme swings up and down each day. Each of the past 5 days has seen either at least 85% of NYSE volume flow into issues that went up, or at least 85% of NYSE volume flow into issues that fell. This all-or-nothing attitude is extremely rare:

A week of records

When the stock market was anywhere near this choppy in the past, the S&P 500 always rallied over the next 6 months:

A week of records

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We also looked at:

  • Correlation among S&P 500 sectors is nearing the highest since 1950
  • Put/call ratios are soaring
  • Money market funds have seen a 10-year high flow over the past 2 weeks
  • The McClellan Summation Index is getting very negative
  • A BlackRock risk gauge is showing that stocks are heavily undervalued
  • Asset managers are aggressively selling
  • Looking at the past week's crash across overseas indexes and commodities and bonds
  • Record oversold readings within sectors and overseas indexes
  • Smart Money vs Dumb Money Spread is nearly at a record