Posts tagged as stocks-and-sectors


Neutral Investors, With Soaring Small-Caps And Dow Theory Warning

2018-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mom and pop just shrugIndividual investors have become neutral to one of the most extreme degrees in the past 15 years.That’s usually a good sign in a bull market, especially longer-term. It’s also been a good sign that there are more bears than ...

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Volatility Regime Change As Utilities Try

2018-03-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Regime changeAfter going more than 400 days without a major cluster of volatility, stocks have moved 1% most of the past 30 days.That is commonly believed to suggest a trend change but has not been consistent. It was especially bullish when we saw ...

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Correlations Go Back To Normal Without A Breadth Thrust

2018-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correlations go back to normalAs stocks sold off, correlations between sectors rose as they usually do and are back at a normal level. That has reversed a period when correlations were almost at the lowest level in history, eclipsed only by the ...

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Gaps Galore As Another Streak Ends

2018-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gaps galoreHeading into the peak in January, stock futures were gapping up almost every day. Now, they’ve gapped down at the open almost every day, tied for the most in history over an 8-day span.Other tight clusters of gap down opens led to ...

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All-Day Trading As Shorts Flee

2018-01-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.With overnight gains, why not trade all day?Most of the gains in stocks come overnight, and mom and pop traders have taken note. TD Ameritrade is trying to meet that need by rolling out 24-hour trading. That rhymes with the 1999-2000 period when ...

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Burst Of New Highs As Optimism Hits 30-Year High

2018-01-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A rare burst of new highsMost of the major indexes and sectors had more than 25% of their stocks hit a 52-week high on Tuesday. Only Staples and Utilities saw fewer than 10% of their stocks hit a new high. On average across indexes and sectors, 27% ...

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Momentum's Dominant Even As Biotech Turns

2018-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is enjoying its turnThe highest momentum stocks have nearly doubled the gains in the S&P 500 over the past year. That’s among their best relative performance in 20 years.If we zoom out and look at the past 90 years, there were periods with ...

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Yield Inversion As Utilities Correct

2018-01-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Yield inversionThe yield on 2-year Treasury Notes is now higher than the dividend yield on the S&P 500. That’s the first time in 10 years, causing consternation among some who only look back that far, since it preceded the financial crisis.But ...

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The S&P's Momentum Streak Aided By Industrials

2018-01-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The S&P’s consistent, rapid rallyThe most important index in the world has rallied consistently for the past 1, 3, and 6 months. It has also picked up its gains, nearing or exceeding its upper Bollinger Band on daily, weekly, and monthly time ...

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January's Prediction Record, Soaring Materials And The "Not Too Hot" Streak

2018-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So goes January…or AugustA popular rule of thumb suggests that how stocks start a New Year means something for the full year. It correctly predicts the return over the next year about 60% of the time.That’s likely a statistical fluke, and other ...

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Options Worries As Energy Breadth Surges

2017-12-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Trouble signs from the options marketTraders in VIX options appear to be betting on a spike, and they’re usually right. The few other times the options market was set up like this, volatility spiked.Meanwhile, traders in SPY options have been busy ...

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Housing Optimism Helps Gap And Go Attempt

2017-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Housing optimismConfidence among those in the housing industry has jumped to one of the highest levels in 30 years. Similarly high levels led to poor returns in home building stocks, but good returns in suppliers like Home Depot and Lowe’s.Over the ...

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Record Exposure As Small-Caps Drop And Commodities Suffer

2017-12-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Record exposureActive investment managers saw a record jump to record exposure and record aggressiveness toward stocks this week.There is a tendency to think this is automatically a contrary sign, but it has not been a consistent signal in the ...

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Good Times As S&P Shrugs Off Financials

2017-12-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good timesLow stress and easy financial conditions have led to high confidence, low savings and good economic surprises.That combination of positive factors has never been seen to the degree we’re enjoying now. Prior “good times” led to mixed ...

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Bitcoin Blow-off, Sector Performance, SLV Pessimism

2017-12-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bitcoin blow-offAnecdotal evidence of a blow-off in Bitcoin has exploded over the last couple of days. That’s hard to incorporate, so using data related to price action and public interest, we see that a sentiment model has reached blow-off ...

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Sector Correlations; Volatility Flows, Small-Cap Selling

2017-12-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.  Sector correlations near all-time lowOver the past 3 months, the average correlation of each of the 10 major sectors to the S&P 500 has plunged to the 2nd-lowest level in history.The only time sectors moved more independently than now was in the ...

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Closing On Lows, Discretionary Streak

2017-12-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Closing on the lows (WHAT?!)The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has closed near the day’s intraday low for the past two days, an unusual sight during this strong uptrend that has seen so many intraday dip-buyers. It hasn’t closed on the low on consecutive days ...

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Sector Surge, MLP Rebound

2017-12-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Sectors surging along with the S&P 500.The S&P has been above its upper Bollinger Band for 3 days. Among sectors, Telecom and Financials are also surging. That’s different from what we saw last December, when it was Staples stocks that were ...

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Seasonality, Utilities, and Junk

2017-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Market Oddities And Nikkei Reversal

2017-11-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Financials Trying To Emerge From Oversold

2017-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Testing Oversold Small-Caps

2017-08-25 | Jason Goepfert


With the introduction of our backtesting engine, it's now possible to determine how a market (or almost any market) has responded to various conditions from our indicators.Let's go over a use case with the small-cap Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.From the Dashboard, if we click on the Optix Heatmap and ...

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The Dow's Dominant Stock

2017-07-31 | Jason Goepfert


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QQQ's 5th High On Low Volume

2017-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Materials, Info Tech New High Surge

2017-01-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Group Think Heading Into Earnings

2017-01-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth Thrust In Euro Stocks

2017-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Surge In Financials At 52-Week Highs

2016-12-09 | Jason Goepfert


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ETFs Trading At Extremes To Value

2016-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

2016-11-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Amazon's Optimistic Group-Think

2016-10-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Largest Deals In History

2016-10-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Amazon Upgrade As A Sign Of A Top

2016-10-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Utilities Have Been (Too) Strong

2016-07-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Biotech Is Taking Off

2016-07-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Semis Going For 10th Up Day

2016-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Utilities Average Is Stretched

2016-05-05 | Jason Goepfert


With utility sector stocks doing so well, it's no surprise that most members of the Dow Jones Utility Average are trading above their moving averages. The rally has been swift and sustained enough that more than 95% of the stocks in the index are now trading above their 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-day ...

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Every Major Telecom Is Above Average

2016-03-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Put Trading On Gold Miners Nears Record

2015-11-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Dividend Appreciation Fund Has Achieved 7 Up Days In A Row

2015-11-25 | Jason Goepfert


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