Posts tagged as spx


Volatility Regime Change As Utilities Try

2018-03-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Regime changeAfter going more than 400 days without a major cluster of volatility, stocks have moved 1% most of the past 30 days.That is commonly believed to suggest a trend change but has not been consistent. It was especially bullish when we saw ...

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Historic Pace Of Selling

2018-03-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Hated Bonds As U.S. Economy Out-Surprises Eurozone

2018-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Survey says: sell bondsRecent surveys of diverse investor groups show nearly universal expectations for higher rates (lower bond prices). An average of different surveys is the most extreme since 2005.Other extremes mostly led to lower interest ...

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Down Days And MLPs

2018-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Shades Of '87 In Stock/Dollar/Rate Moves As 50-Day Fails

2018-02-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shades of ’87 (among others)Over the past year, stocks have rallied, and the dollar has collapses as the Fed raises rates.That is similar to 1987, but there were also other dates that didn’t lead to nearly such dramatic results. After similar ...

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High-Yield Pessimism Hits Other Assets

2018-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Heavy selling in high-yieldMost of the measures we track for the high-yield bond market are getting stretched. This week, there was some of the most indiscriminate selling in over a decade.Future returns have been very positive after similar ...

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Gaps Galore As Another Streak Ends

2018-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gaps galoreHeading into the peak in January, stock futures were gapping up almost every day. Now, they’ve gapped down at the open almost every day, tied for the most in history over an 8-day span.Other tight clusters of gap down opens led to ...

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Panic And Reverse

2018-02-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Panic and reverseStocks suffered a panic day on Monday, then reversed early losses to close higher. That matches several other instances that led to consistent returns going forward.There was volatile back-and-forth then another run at the prior ...

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Record Gaps As Investors Pour In

2018-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Green every morningStocks have been gapping up in the morning almost every day. During the past 30 sessions, more than 85% of them have seen the futures open higher than the prior close.That is – by far – the most since futures began trading in ...

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Dollar Ignores Rates As S&P Shows Exhaustion

2018-01-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ignoring the rise in ratesDespite a steady rise in interest rates, the U.S. dollar has declined more than 10% over the past year.That’s unusual, especially given the magnitude of the fall in the dollar and the rise in rates. The other times it ...

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Record Gaps

2018-01-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Doubling Up Moving Average As S&P Members Get Overbought

2018-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Doubling up the averagesThe S&P is 3% above its short-term moving average, 6% above its medium-term and 13% above its long-term.It hasn’t managed to “double up” its gains above each successive moving average in 20 years. Similar bouts of momentum ...

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Gapping Up And Nasdaq New Highs

2018-01-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Burst Of New Highs As Optimism Hits 30-Year High

2018-01-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A rare burst of new highsMost of the major indexes and sectors had more than 25% of their stocks hit a 52-week high on Tuesday. Only Staples and Utilities saw fewer than 10% of their stocks hit a new high. On average across indexes and sectors, 27% ...

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Gap Up While Bears Scatter And New Highs Jump

2018-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Persistent Trend As Stocks Become Stretched

2018-01-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The most persistent trendThe persistence of the S&P’s uptrend over the past year is among the highest in its history. Same goes for the past 3, 5, and 10 years.When we look at the 5 comparable trends, using the 200-day average as a guide was ...

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The S&P's Momentum Streak Aided By Industrials

2018-01-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The S&P’s consistent, rapid rallyThe most important index in the world has rallied consistently for the past 1, 3, and 6 months. It has also picked up its gains, nearing or exceeding its upper Bollinger Band on daily, weekly, and monthly time ...

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January's Prediction Record, Soaring Materials And The "Not Too Hot" Streak

2018-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So goes January…or AugustA popular rule of thumb suggests that how stocks start a New Year means something for the full year. It correctly predicts the return over the next year about 60% of the time.That’s likely a statistical fluke, and other ...

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Housing Optimism Helps Gap And Go Attempt

2017-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Housing optimismConfidence among those in the housing industry has jumped to one of the highest levels in 30 years. Similarly high levels led to poor returns in home building stocks, but good returns in suppliers like Home Depot and Lowe’s.Over the ...

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Record Exposure As Small-Caps Drop And Commodities Suffer

2017-12-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Record exposureActive investment managers saw a record jump to record exposure and record aggressiveness toward stocks this week.There is a tendency to think this is automatically a contrary sign, but it has not been a consistent signal in the ...

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Good Times As S&P Shrugs Off Financials

2017-12-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good timesLow stress and easy financial conditions have led to high confidence, low savings and good economic surprises.That combination of positive factors has never been seen to the degree we’re enjoying now. Prior “good times” led to mixed ...

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Record Small Business Optimism As Investors Buy The Dip

2017-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Near-record optimism (again)Small business owners are showing nearly the highest optimism readings in 45 years, confirming other surveys that are showing somewhere between multi-year to multi-decade extremes in optimism.High levels in the past led ...

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Strategists' 2018 Estimates; S&P's Relative Strength

2017-12-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Another 7% gain for 2018Wall Street strategists are looking for a 7% gain for the S&P 500 in 2018. That’s slightly more optimistic than the Big Money poll a couple of months ago, and it’s about what they estimate every year. Actual results vary ...

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S&P futures gaps

2017-12-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Market Oddities And Nikkei Reversal

2017-11-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Straddling The S&P

2017-10-17 | Jason Goepfert


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SPY Streaks And Twitter Updates

2017-10-04 | Jason Goepfert


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VIX Split

2017-06-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Misleading Buy Signal In Options

2017-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Crude Oil's New Bear Market

2017-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Jump In New Lows

2017-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


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New Lows Among The S&P

2017-05-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Gapping After A New High

2017-05-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Low Vol (Again) As Tech Love Rises

2017-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Retail Investor Confusion As The Vol Trade And Bitcoin Roll

2017-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


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VIX Sigh Of Relief

2017-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Holiday Trading

2017-04-13 | Jason Goepfert


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First Large Down Open

2017-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Jobs Report Gap

2017-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Quiet Market No More

2017-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Bulls Reach 30-Year Highs On Futures Gap

2017-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Gap Opens On Nonfarm Payroll Day

2017-02-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks Struggle To Match The S&P

2017-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Large Gap On First Session

2017-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Spike In Buying Climaxes

2016-12-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Pre-FOMC Strength

2016-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


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December Tends To Peak...Now

2016-12-08 | Jason Goepfert


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All Four Major Indexes At New Highs

2016-11-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Thanksgiving Bias After A Rally

2016-11-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

2016-11-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Markets Don't Like Surprises

2016-11-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Big Gains Ahead Of Elections

2016-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


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3-Month Lows In November

2016-11-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Largest Deals In History

2016-10-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Gap And Go?

2016-10-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Reversal Day As A Bottoming Signal

2016-10-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Negative Bias In Weeks Following FOMC

2016-09-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Reversing The Reversal

2016-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday-Monday Selling

2016-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Streak Without A 1% Loss About To End?

2016-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Gap To A Record

2016-07-14 | Jason Goepfert


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The Probability Of "Gap And Go"

2016-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Gapping To A New High

2016-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P Nearing A New High On Nonfarm Payroll Day

2016-07-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Buyers Enjoying A 2nd Gap Up Open

2016-06-29 | Jason Goepfert


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A 1% Gap Up Following Down Days

2016-06-28 | Jason Goepfert


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VIX Drops With S&P; Friday-Monday Declines

2016-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Losing The 200-Day Average

2016-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


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A Gap Down Monday

2016-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Intraday Price Action Following Large Gaps Down

2016-06-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Optimistic Extremes Jump Above 40%

2016-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Big Payroll Miss

2016-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


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AAII Survey Shows Big Jump In Bulls

2016-06-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Market Rising Into Memorial Day

2016-05-27 | Jason Goepfert


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The 50-Week / 100-Week "Death Cross" Is Yet More Bunk

2016-05-18 | Jason Goepfert


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The Most Frightening Chart

2016-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Golden Cross With A Rising 200-Day Average

2016-04-19 | Jason Goepfert


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is about to enjoy a "golden cross", when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average. We've looked at this in various markets over the years, typically with the conclusion that it's mostly useless.The wrinkle being discussed this time is that the 200-day ...

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Bad Breadth On A Good Day

2016-04-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Back-To-Back-To-Back Reversal

2016-04-07 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P Rallies Hard, May Cross 200-Day Avg

2016-03-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Opening Gap Odds As Investor Optimism Doubles

2016-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Gapping Up On Nonfarm Payrolls

2016-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Getting Out When Averages Cross

2016-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


Basic, long-term trend-following systems have become all the rage. Backtested results show that owning stocks, or almost any other asset class, when they are above a long-term moving average (such as 10 or 12 months), and not owning them when below the average, is superior on a risk-adjusted ...

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Quick Look At Futures Positioning

2016-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Gapping After Optimism Hits An Extreme

2016-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Yet Another Gap As Opening Fervor Continues

2016-02-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Three-Day Rally Triggers More Short-Term Extremes

2016-02-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Up Volume Going For 3 In A Row Above 80%

2016-02-17 | Jason Goepfert


There is still a few hours to go in today's session, but buyers are working on a third straight day of impressive pressure.Friday, Tuesday and today (so far) have all seen more than 80% of volume on the NYSE flowing into stocks that are positive on the day.From the intraday charts:The last time ...

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Third Gap Of +1%

2016-02-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Optimism Flat As Buying Surrounds Holiday Break

2016-02-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Survey Pessimism Pushes AIM Model To Low Level

2016-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Large Loss On Nonfarm Payroll Day

2016-02-05 | Jason Goepfert


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New-Month Gap Down After A Big Surge

2016-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


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A Big Month-End Rally Day

2016-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth Flush Pt 2 - New Lows

2016-01-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Morning, Another Opening Loss

2016-01-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Morning, Another Gap

2016-01-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Individual Investors Flee

2016-01-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Selling Off After We're Already Oversold

2016-01-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks Hitting A Low On Monday

2016-01-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Gaps From A Low

2016-01-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Gaps Indicate Short-Term Panic

2016-01-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Second Big Gap Down In Three Days

2016-01-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Bad Start

2016-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


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