Posts tagged as patterns


The Anti-Hindenburg Omen; Fed Recession Risk Rises

2019-01-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The anti-HindenburgA compelling reason for caution last fall was the kind of split market that triggered a cluster of Hindenburg Omen warning signs. Over the past two weeks, there has been a cluster of signals that are the exact opposite of the ...

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VIX Jumps 20% Again As Rates Lose 50-Day

2018-03-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A questionable precedentA month ago, we saw that after a 10% decline, the Dow Industrials was most closely tracking “good” corrections. That has started to change in recent sessions, and now the closest precedent is from November 2007.Double ...

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SPY's Red Monday Leaves An Island And Death Crosses

2018-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A red bull market MondayBull markets sometimes suffer heavy selling following weekend news events, but even so, Monday was severe. It ranked in the bottom 3.5% of all bull market Monday’s since the inception of the popular SPY fund.Other times it ...

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Neutral Investors, With Soaring Small-Caps And Dow Theory Warning

2018-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mom and pop just shrugIndividual investors have become neutral to one of the most extreme degrees in the past 15 years.That’s usually a good sign in a bull market, especially longer-term. It’s also been a good sign that there are more bears than ...

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Large Losses As Volatility Ebbs Amid ETF Outflow

2018-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A scary beginningBefore Friday’s open, stocks were facing another large loss, following three days of 1% declines. That has led to consistent rallies over the short-term, especially if measured from Friday’s open.We’ve seen this volatility show ...

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Lopsided Volume Swings As MLPs Suffer Pessimism

2018-03-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody out, then in, then out againDuring the past month, volume has been gyrating wildly between losing, winning, then losing securities. A 3-day average of the Up Volume Ratio keeps swinging from one extreme to the other.During uptrending ...

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Hated Bonds As U.S. Economy Out-Surprises Eurozone

2018-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Survey says: sell bondsRecent surveys of diverse investor groups show nearly universal expectations for higher rates (lower bond prices). An average of different surveys is the most extreme since 2005.Other extremes mostly led to lower interest ...

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Down Days And MLPs

2018-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


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A "Good" Correction As Silver Specs Give Up

2018-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good vs bad correctionsIn these first two weeks following the Dow’s drop into a correction, it has followed the path of many “good” corrections. Those are times when the Dow fell 10% from a high, then no more than a further 7% during the next ...

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Best Recovery Ever As Investors Flee Bonds

2018-02-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Best recovery everAfter falling into a correction a week ago, the Dow Industrials index has rallied every day and added 5.6%. That ranks among its best-ever recoveries after falling more than 10% below its high for the first time in months.Other ...

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S&P Jumps Multiple Days As Volatility Halves

2018-02-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.What a difference a week makesThe S&P 500 has jumped more than 1% on 3 out of the past 4 sessions. That buying thrust comes on the heels of a multi-month low during a bullish long-term trend.Future shorter-term returns were skewed positive, a stark ...

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Six-Month Analogs With Record Momentum Shift

2018-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Six-month comparisonsLooking at analog comparisons of different time periods is fraught with data-mining risk, but they can still prove useful in some contexts. Looking at how stocks have traveled since August, there have been 26 six-month time ...

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High-Yield Pessimism Hits Other Assets

2018-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Heavy selling in high-yieldMost of the measures we track for the high-yield bond market are getting stretched. This week, there was some of the most indiscriminate selling in over a decade.Future returns have been very positive after similar ...

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Gaps Galore As Another Streak Ends

2018-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gaps galoreHeading into the peak in January, stock futures were gapping up almost every day. Now, they’ve gapped down at the open almost every day, tied for the most in history over an 8-day span.Other tight clusters of gap down opens led to ...

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Panic And Reverse

2018-02-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Panic and reverseStocks suffered a panic day on Monday, then reversed early losses to close higher. That matches several other instances that led to consistent returns going forward.There was volatile back-and-forth then another run at the prior ...

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Unfolding Momentum

2018-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.CrashMonday’s trading – and post-close moves – are the types of action only seen a few times in history. Large, swift declines from a high have tended to lead to capitulatory moves that lead to rebounds in the medium-term. The possible liquidation ...

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Cornucopia Of Extremes

2018-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Happy New Year As Investors Go All In

2018-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy New YearThe S&P has enjoyed a record start to the year, with back-to-back gains and new highs. It has never before managed to climb more than 0.5% with 52-week highs on the first two sessions. Similar years saw pullbacks, with the short-term ...

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Opening Enthusiasm As Wall Street Upgrades

2017-12-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Don’t sleep or you’ll miss itSo far in December, the stock market’s gains have come overnight, with regular trading hours showing a net loss. That is unlike what we’ve seen for most of this year. The Smart Money Index looks at early-morning versus ...

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Sector Correlations; Volatility Flows, Small-Cap Selling

2017-12-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.  Sector correlations near all-time lowOver the past 3 months, the average correlation of each of the 10 major sectors to the S&P 500 has plunged to the 2nd-lowest level in history.The only time sectors moved more independently than now was in the ...

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Closing On Lows, Discretionary Streak

2017-12-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Closing on the lows (WHAT?!)The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has closed near the day’s intraday low for the past two days, an unusual sight during this strong uptrend that has seen so many intraday dip-buyers. It hasn’t closed on the low on consecutive days ...

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SPY Streaks And Twitter Updates

2017-10-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Silver's Inconsistent Signs

2017-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Gapping After A New High

2017-05-25 | Jason Goepfert


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First Large Down Open

2017-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Jobs Report Gap

2017-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Quiet Market No More

2017-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


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QQQ's 5th High On Low Volume

2017-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Spike In Buying Climaxes

2016-12-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Pre-FOMC Strength

2016-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

2016-11-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Big Gains Ahead Of Elections

2016-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


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3-Month Lows In November

2016-11-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Gap And Go?

2016-10-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Reversal Day As A Bottoming Signal

2016-10-13 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P Nearing A New High On Nonfarm Payroll Day

2016-07-08 | Jason Goepfert


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QQQ Reversal Has Been Inconsistent

2016-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


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About That Rounded Top

2016-01-16 | Jason Goepfert


A big concern among technically-oriented traders is what looks to be a pending breakdown from a rounded top formation. Many also point out a potential head-and-shoulders formation.Technical analysis has never proven to be consistently predictive, partly because it is subjective. There are a lot ...

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SPY Outside Negative Reversal

2015-12-02 | Jason Goepfert


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