Posts tagged as momentum


Internal momentum shifts for the 1st time in 4 months

2020-09-23 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time since May, there were more 52-week lows on the NYSE than 52-week highs.

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Streak of highs beating lows finally ends

2020-09-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Breaking the S&P's medium term trend

2020-09-19 | Troy Bombardia


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The Nasdaq's momentum bubble is getting pricked

2020-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time in months, there are signs that the Nasdaq's relentless momentum has become unglued.

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The Nasdaq's momentum bubble gets pricked

2020-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


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A year like no other since 1932

2020-09-08 | Jason Goepfert


The spread between the best- and worst-performing sectors in 2020 is the most egregious since 1932 through August.

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The Nasdaq has run and run and run

2020-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


The Nasdaq's run over triple time frames has been matched only twice before in its nearly 50-year history.

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The Nasdaq's run, and potential end

2020-09-03 | Jason Goepfert


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More NASDAQ momentum

2020-09-01 | Troy Bombardia


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Monster momentum versus poor participation

2020-08-31 | Jason Goepfert


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Many overbought tech stocks

2020-08-29 | Troy Bombardia


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Another gap preps SPY for record momentum

2020-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


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An incredible 5 months

2020-08-25 | Troy Bombardia


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Two sides of the S&P 500 - total return vs. equal weight

2020-08-11 | Jason Goepfert


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NASDAQ's momentum is weakening?

2020-08-11 | Troy Bombardia


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One of the most consistent years ever

2020-07-31 | Jason Goepfert


So far this year, the Nasdaq has enjoyed a gain on more than 62% of its sessions. This ranks among the most consistently positive years in its history.

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The dollar's largest monthly losses

2020-07-31 | Jason Goepfert


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One of the most consistently positive years for the Nasdaq

2020-07-30 | Jason Goepfert


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The past 3 months' "everything rally"

2020-07-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth is breaking out

2020-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Another day, another new all-time high

2020-07-11 | Troy Bombardia


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Big stocks continue to power the Nasdaq higher

2020-07-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Big momentum in the big indexes

2020-07-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Strong rally and strong momentum

2020-07-07 | Troy Bombardia


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Emerging markets are showing signs of momentum

2020-07-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Sky high tech sentiment

2020-07-02 | Troy Bombardia


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Breadth momentum cools down

2020-06-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Questionable participation, a historic Nasdaq run, consumer attitudes

2020-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


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The last time tech stocks ran like this was 1996

2020-06-25 | Jason Goepfert


The technology sector has rallied for 19 out of 22 days and is leading every other major sector year-to-date by more than 5%.

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Tech's streak is historic, beating every other sector by more than 5% this year

2020-06-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Similarities between the NASDAQ now and in February

2020-06-24 | Troy Bombardia


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Some factors to consider as we start the new week

2020-06-21 | Troy Bombardia


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Broad display of medium-term uptrends during long-term downtrends

2020-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


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High beta indexes are jumping

2020-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Wall Street can't keep up with torrid gains in stocks

2020-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


Share prices have surged, and have far surpassed where Wall Street strategists and analysts think they should be.

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Very strong short term uptrend

2020-06-11 | Troy Bombardia


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Prices are surging and Wall Street can't keep up

2020-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


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All of the 'big four' indexes have come at least 75% back

2020-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


All of the 'big four' indexes (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000) have reclaimed at least 75% of their declines.

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The 'big four' have stormed back

2020-06-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth has broken out

2020-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


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The Nasdaq is almost all the way back

2020-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


The Nasdaq Composite has almost fully recovered from more than a 30% drawdown from a 52-week high.

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Summation Indexes show broad-based recovery

2020-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


The NYSE McClellan Summation Index has moved above +500 from below -1000. The Summation Index for bonds and overseas indexes recovered, too.

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The Nasdaq's short road back to even is golden

2020-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Summation Indexes show complete recovery from devastation

2020-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Over the past 2 weeks, another historic thrust

2020-06-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Short-term speculation within long-term recovery

2020-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Signs of speculation continue to pop up

2020-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


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The Nasdaq goes positive

2020-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


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A front-loaded rally as gains peter out

2020-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: A strong start even as economic data plunge

2020-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


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A 'double' Zweig Breadth Thrust just as we hit the worst six months

2020-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks have rarely done this before

2020-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has gained at least 1% at some point intraday for the last 6 days. That's one of the longest streaks in nearly 40 years.

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S&P notches yet another big intraday gain

2020-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Underlying momentum has turned negative

2020-04-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Another thrust narrowly missed

2020-04-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: News flow still horrid, but the buying thrust has been historic

2020-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


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A breadth thrust that wasn't

2020-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Another surge as Dow nears 20% threshold

2020-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth coming back to normal

2020-03-26 | Troy Bombardia


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Quick pullback from all-time high

2020-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Bulls' nightmare week

2020-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


The past 2 days have seen a historic selloff in stocks, cycling from new highs to multi-month lows. This week saw back-to-back 90% down days.

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Warnings spike as complacency ends

2020-02-25 | Jason Goepfert


Technical warning signs have piled up over the past month. The Nasdaq 100 has relieved its overbought condition for the first time in 3 months.

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Stocks can't keep up...and a dirty little secret

2020-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


A record number of S&P 500 stocks are falling behind the index itself. How to be a successful newsletter writer - don't ever be wrong!

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Is the stock market's rally dead?

2020-02-21 | Troy Bombardia


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Dollar momentum isn't stopping gold

2020-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


The correlation between gold and the dollar is breaking down. The Relative Strength Index for the dollar has now pushed into extreme territory.

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Options traders spend billions betting that this rally won't end

2020-02-19 | Jason Goepfert


Each of the past two weeks, options traders have spent at least $7 billion in bets on a rally. The Nasdaq's correlation to 1999 isn't exclusive.

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Market overview: tech and growth stocks surge

2020-02-15 | Troy Bombardia


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7-figure accounts surge along with mo-mo market

2020-02-14 | Jason Goepfert


There has been a surge in 401k millionaire accounts, an 80% jump from a year ago. The S&P 500 hasn't pulled back more than 5% for 6 months.

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What I'm looking at - standard deviations, tech breadth, relative strength, USD

2020-02-14 | Troy Bombardia


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1/3 of days at all-time highs

2020-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Mom & Pop are manic about stocks

2020-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


Trading activity among retail traders has gone parabolic, due in part to zero commissions. The S&P 500 has hit 36 all-time highs in the past 4 months.

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Island Of Misfit Bears

2020-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 formed an island formation. Crude oil has now dropped for 5 straight weeks.

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Market & fundamentals overview: the rally continues

2020-02-08 | Troy Bombardia


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Half Of Nasdaq Stocks Are In Bear Markets

2020-02-07 | Jason Goepfert


Half of the stocks on the Nasdaq are in bear markets, and nearly 70% are in corrections. The S&P 500 hasn't had a 7% drawdown in a year.

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What I'm looking at - Dow earnings, German manufacturing, tech rally, shallow drawdowns, Treasuries sentiment

2020-02-07 | Troy Bombardia


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A 4th Straight Gap Up

2020-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Sentiment Is Normalizing As Technical Warnings Trigger

2020-02-04 | Jason Goepfert


Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence shows sentiment is starting to normalize. The Hindenburg Omen is triggering again.

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Market & fundamentals overview: the overdue pullback?

2020-01-25 | Troy Bombardia


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As Good As It Gets For Trend Followers

2020-01-24 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has gone 3 months with great gains and very little volatility. There has been a jump in breadth extremes in defensive sectors.

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Options Traders Have Never Done This Before

2020-01-22 | Jason Goepfert


Options traders are buying calls to open and not selling many as an offset. The small-cap Russell 2000 is close to breaking out.

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An Extreme - And Protracted - Stretch Of Optimism

2020-01-21 | Jason Goepfert


There has been an extreme number of indicators showing optimism over the past month. More than 25% of S&P 500 stocks are overbought.

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Big Stretch Of Calm Even As Investors Leave SPY

2020-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has gone 3 months without a 1% daily move. Traders are leave the SPY ETF even as it rallies.

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What I'm looking at - Cass Freight Index, strength of the trend, more breadth, Put/Call

2020-01-16 | Troy Bombardia


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The "Energizer" Rally Keeps Going Despite Rising Jobless Claims

2020-01-13 | Jason Goepfert


Smart Money and Dumb Money spread has been wide for 2 months but momentum keeps stocks rising. Continued jobless claims are rising.

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Market & fundamentals overview: the relentless rally continues

2020-01-11 | Troy Bombardia


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The Market "Un-Splits" As Momentum Is Relentless

2020-01-10 | Jason Goepfert


The HiLo Logic Index shows an un-split market, and momentum has helped stocks hit new all-time highs more than 25 times in 3 months.

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What I'm looking at - relentless rally, bullish percent index, recession probabilities, abandoning utilities

2020-01-10 | Troy Bombardia


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Options Traders Are Leveraged After A Good Year-End

2020-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


After a good end to the year, stocks often struggle, and options traders are leveraged and bullish, with the U.S. dollar breaking down

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Market & fundamentals overview: looking at the year ahead

2019-12-28 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - equity Put/Call, low volatility, relentless momentum, low volume, Brazil

2019-12-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Investors' Very (Very, Very) Good Year

2019-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


The value of household equities in 2019 is going to show one of the best gains on record.Investors’ very good yearThe value of American households’ holdings in corporate equities and mutual funds has surged 25% over the past year to a new high. This ranks 2019 among the very best since 1951.Once ...

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Persistent Momentum Gets Investors Back In The Mood

2019-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Investors are back in the moodAfter more than 9 months, the AAII survey of individual investors shows that more than two-thirds of them are finally ...

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What I'm looking at - sentiment, LEI, Hong Kong volatility, strong momentum, Mexico surge

2019-12-20 | Troy Bombardia


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Net New Highs On NYSE And Nasdaq Hit 6-Month High

2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


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MSCI All World and NYSE Composite Indexes Break Out

2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


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CFOs Are Getting More Confident (But Their Bosses...)

2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


Corporate insiders, CEOs and CFOs, are becoming more optimistic as stock market indexes break out.Insiders show diverging sentimentIn recent quarters, corporate CFOs have become more optimistic after a long time expecting declining conditions. At the same time, their bosses (CEOs) have continued ...

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Smart Money Is Betting On The "Gundlach Ratio"

2019-12-12 | Jason Goepfert


Smart money is betting on the Gundlach Ratio to predict a rise in interest rates, and micro-cap stocks are breaking out.Smart money’s bet on ‘Gundlach Ratio'Respected bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach highlighted his use of a ratio of copper to gold to forecast the future path of interest ...

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Bond Market Does The Splits

2019-12-09 | Jason Goepfert


The bond market is showing split performance, and stock market momentum is impressive.More splits than a gymnastDifferent parts of the bond market are seeing vastly different treatment from investors. Riskier, lower-credit parts of the market are seeing low demand and heavy selling pressure ...

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Is This A Blow-Off Top?

2019-12-05 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P might be showing signs of a blow off top, and the range in Chinese stocks is very small.Blow-off behavior?Heading into Thanksgiving, stocks just couldn’t lose. The S&P 500 managed to sport a positive return on all common time frames, with a strong median gain, while hitting new highs to ...

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All 'Bout That 'Mo

2019-12-02 | Jason Goepfert


The Nasdaq has rallied 9 out of 11 months, and the MACD indicator is about to turn up.MomentumWith just one month left this year, U.S. equities have rallied significantly year-to-date. U.S. equity indices like the NASDAQ Composite have gone up 9 of the past 11 months.As is the case with most ...

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What I'm looking at - momentum, MACD, Medium Term Risk Levels, GS Current Activity Indicator

2019-11-30 | Troy Bombardia


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What The Breakout In Small Caps Might Mean

2019-11-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Intermediate Term Optimism IndexWith the stock market pushing higher relentlessly, sentiment remains elevated. Our Intermediate Term Optimism Index's 20 day ...

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A Cluster Of Warnings

2019-11-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Cluster funkIf we focus on one particular data point too much, then we risk getting blindsided by a structural market change or simply a failed signal. That’s ...

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What I'm looking at - LEI, sentiment pullback, low volatility stocks, NASDAQ, Index Put/Call

2019-11-22 | Troy Bombardia


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Stocks Haven't Done This For 7 Years

2019-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.There’s always tomorrowSince early October, holders of the S&P 500 have not had to suffer back-to-back losses. It’s been 25 sessions since the S&P faced ...

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Risk Is Back, Baby

2019-11-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Risk on assetsOver the past 50 days, a handful of “risk on” assets have all returned more than 2.5%, while “risk off” assets have all lost more than -2.5%, ...

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Pension Tension

2019-11-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Public pension tensionPublic pension funds have been adding to their stock allocation, raising it significantly over the past year. They’ve also dropped their ...

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Why Investors' Money Market Rush Isn't Necessarily A Buy Signal

2019-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Money market mysteryAssets in money market funds continue to ramp higher. Knee-jerk contrarians will take that as a buy signal, but it’s not that easy. Assets ...

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Speculative Options Trading Picks Up

2019-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Options optimismThanks to a lot of volume in index options, the CBOE’s total put/call ratio dropped to a very low level. Over the past two weeks, it has moved ...

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Value Line arithmetic index breaks out to new high

2019-11-05 | Jason Goepfert


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One Of These Things Is Not Like The Others

2019-11-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.One of these things is not like the othersOut of the “big four” equity indexes, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are all sitting at new all-time highs. The small-cap ...

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Smart Money vs Dumb Money Is Getting Extreme

2019-10-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Confidence conflictQuite a few times over the past couple of months, we’ve discussed how various aspects of sentiment were curiously subdued. From individual ...

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The Year That Everything Rallied

2019-10-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The year of everythingThrough late October, stocks, bonds, gold, and oil are all showing solid year-to-date gains. This is only the 5th year in the past 30 ...

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VIX drops below 13 for 1st time in 50 days

2019-10-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Everything is rallying this year

2019-10-25 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - TLT Optix, Leading vs. Coincident, Russell range, DAX breadth, REITs, Smart Money Index

2019-10-22 | Troy Bombardia


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A rebound in momentum but investors are still crabby

2019-10-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.In recoveryMomentum stocks have largely recovered from the swift, massive losses earlier in September. That drop triggered a rise in anxiety, but it’s not the ...

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Momentum stocks go from -10% to +10%

2019-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism

2019-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - momentum's resurgence, new highs-lows, Index Put/Call, job openings, soft data

2019-10-10 | Troy Bombardia


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Wednesday Color - Small-cap outflows, financial & energy breadth, natty drop, energy options

2019-10-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Gold hasn't done this for a decade

2019-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Heavy hedgingThe smallest of options traders continue to protect themselves against a market decline to an unusually heavy degree. Last week, they spent ...

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Monday Color - Small traders, dollar sellers, S&P momentum, quarterly run, energy bonds

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Why this is different than other bull market peaks

2019-09-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bear market momentumThe big drop in momentum stocks earlier this month triggered the theory that the long bull market in stocks was likely over, since ...

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Wednesday color - Utility surge impact on stocks/gold, breadth rollover, skittish signs, Egypt

2019-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

2019-09-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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McClellan Summation above zero for 169 days

2019-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


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ETF Traders, Foreigners Jump In Right Before Momentum Stock Shock

2019-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Momentum stock shockAfter last week’s huge drop in momentum stocks, and shift toward value from growth, those shares fell a bit more and have since rebounded. ...

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S&P 500 after Momentum 10-day average z-score > 2.5

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


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A Big Jump In Big Money Bulls

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big money gets bullishThe latest survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that polls large money managers with nearly $700 billion under management showed a ...

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Wednesday Color - FOMC Bias, Emerging Recovery, Japan, Fund Flow

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Nikkei 225 sees jump in stocks at 1-month high

2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Color - Breakaway Gaps, Japan Jumps, Small-Caps Pop, Dollar

2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


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A Historic Turn In Fortunes

2019-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Growth no mo’ momoThe swift exodus from momentum stocks has hit those classified as “growth” hard, especially relative to those considered to be “value.” The ...

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Momentum Traders' Massive Loss

2019-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Massive momentum moveOn Monday, many momentum traders likely had their worst day in a decade. Stocks that showed the best gains year-to-date suffered some of ...

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Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

2019-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Gold's Shocking Drop

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Gold’s bull runETF traders have consistently poured money into gold funds, even during Thursday’s big drop, which was a “shocking” decline.It started to fall ...

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Gold Has Only Done This 4 Other Times

2019-08-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Stocks down, bonds upHeading into the last few sessions of the month, the total return on the S&P 500 was on track for one of its worst in almost 30 years ...

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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P 500 after McOsc rises above 0 and McSumm never went < +100

2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Color - Lows Recede, Summation Rollover, Bad Ag, Bond Bulls (Again)

2019-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


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200 Reasons Why The Hindenburg Omen Matters

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


Warning signsFor the first time since October 2018, there are hints of trouble brewing beneath the market. While major indexes have been at or near all-time highs, under the surface there are more and more stocks losing momentum, and there has been a split with many securities at 52-week highs ...

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Friday Color - Gold Momentum, Internal Warnings, Mexico

2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Momentum Is Waning And Stocks Are Starting To Split

2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


Six months of momentumThe McClellan Summation Index has now gone 6 months in positive territory.That’s a long streak compared to others since 1962. Momentum is very difficult to time, almost by definition, but by the time this measure of breadth momentum went this long above zero, forward ...

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Thursday Color - Fading 'Mo, Energy Stock Drop, Titanic Signal, Cotton, Euro Junk

2019-07-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - Discretionary Streak, Fund Exposure, Small Trader Enthusiasm, Earnings Season

2019-07-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Tech Has Led - What That Should Mean For The Summer

2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


Similar sector first halvesThe S&P 500 has enjoyed great gains through the first half of the year, as have most of its sectors. Looking at other years when the S&P gained at least 10% through June that had the most similar returns among sectors, the next couple of months tended to be ...

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This Is One Of Tech's Quickest Recoveries

2019-07-03 | Jason Goepfert


New highs, but...The S&P jumped to a record high along with several other indexes on Monday (and Tuesday) but fewer stocks were coming along for the ride both days. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE and within the S&P itself has shrunk from when the indexes moved toward new highs in June.That ...

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Why Gold Bugs Shouldn't Fear A False Breakout

2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


Risk-on hasn’t caught onMonday’s session was almost totally risk-on, even if the magnitude faded during the day. Most “risk-on” assets rose, which was the case on Friday, too. But over the past 200 days, risk-off sessions have dominated, reversing the trend that led up to the fall of 2018.Since ...

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Best June In Decades Is Hated By Wall Street

2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


A good monthThe S&P 500 enjoyed its best June gain since 1955, with 1999 being the only other year with more than a 5% gain. It also managed to hit a multi-year high during the month.Since 1928, this has had a strong tendency to lead to a good start to July, but not so much after that. For the ...

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Monday Color - High Gap, Weekly Indicators, Sector Breadth

2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


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The Everything Rally

2019-06-24 | Jason Goepfert


The everything rallyTotal return stock and bond indexes are hitting all-time highs at the same time. They cover an array of stocks and bonds, suggesting extreme breadth of buying interest, as noted by Bloomberg.When they’ve all hit records together, it has been an especially good longer-term ...

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Gold Just Did Something For The 1st Time In 25 Years

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


Gold’s near-record streakGold broke out to a multi-year high for the first time in more than 2,000 days, which was nearly its longest streak in 40 years.The ends of other super-long streaks without a new high all saw the metal trade lower over the next couple of months. The dollar tended to be ...

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Tight Range Following A Surge

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight

2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

2019-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Buyers' 1-2 Punch For Stocks

2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


A one-two rallyThe S&P 500 fell to a 50-day low on Monday, and the charts didn’t look good, but they hid a lot of underlying potential. Both Monday and Tuesday saw eager buying pressure under the surface, and Tuesday’s one-day jump in the S&P was the largest in nearly six months.When the index ...

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


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5 Weeks Of Losses - What's Next?

2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


Dow dingedThe Dow Industrials have lost ground for five straight weeks, its 2nd-worst stretch since the financial crisis and among its worst since 1900.It’s relatively unusual to see such a string of losses while relatively close to a 52-week high, and over the past 40 years that has led to ...

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Friday Midday Color - Dow's 5th Loss, Energy Breadth, Utes, Social Negatives

2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


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A Perfect Technical Buy Signal

2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings approach peakSince last fall, earnings among S&P 500 companies have been in a pullback. A recent trend higher has nearly erased that and they’re closer to their peak than they’ve been in six months.After other times earnings near their peak after several months, stocks performed well.A ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

2019-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


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This Has Happened To Tech Only Twice Before

2019-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


From first to worstStocks have lost one of their biggest drivers. Tech stocks have powered much of the rally through April, and then fell hard. The sector was leading the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, and then fell to the worst among them over the past few weeks.That does not happen often, and ...

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Friday Midday Color - Bonds, Renewed Momo, Overseas Extremes

2019-05-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Traders Are Panicking The Most Since The Financial Crisis

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


More momentum miscuesSigns of waning momentum are everywhere. One of the more impressive signs of intense underlying buying was in the Dow Industrials, where the McClellan Summation Index held above 1,000 for nearly three months, until now.Other times that extreme momentum finally ended over the ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Big Outflows, More Hedging, Falling Momo

2019-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Momentum Traders' First Real Test

2019-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


Testing momentumIn early January, stocks registered a Zweig Breath Thrust when Up Volume quickly swung from oversold to overbought. This week, the indicator hit an oversold level for the first time, testing momentum traders’ conviction.Other times that months passed between a thrust and the ...

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Sentiment Is Curling

2019-05-13 | Jason Goepfert


Summation finally weakensWe’ve discussed the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes a lot in recent months, because they have been showing notable readings of momentum. That’s starting to ease with the long-term Summation Index, which dropped below 750 for the first time in months, ending ...

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Friday Midday Color - Pre-Market Fear, Failures, Overseas Extremes, Momentum Drops

2019-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


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4 Energetic Extremes

2019-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


Energy extremesThe selling pressure earlier this week in the energy sector triggered several shorter-term extremes in breadth. Most of those stocks fell to their lowest in a month, below their volatility bands. Few held above their short-term moving averages.When the sector had rebounded more ...

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Friday Midday Color - Momentum Market, Energy Washout, Russell Breakout

2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Why Beans Should Bounce

2019-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


No oomph in OscillatorThe McClellan Oscillator hasn’t been able to get above zero even as the S&P 500 and other indexes tick to new highs on multiple days.Over the past 57 years, this has been a negative sign of underlying weakness for stocks, though the sample is small, and the most recent ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch

2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ...

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Breadth Breathes As A Bearish Candle Engulfs Oil

2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth takes a breatherIn January, breadth momentum was so impressive that the McClellan Oscillator held above 50 for over a month. Since then, it hasn’t climbed above that level even as stocks made great gains.This is a divergence that has triggered near several important market peaks, but the ...

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A Most Excellent Recovery

2019-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


An excellent recoveryThe S&P 500’s new high marks an end to the correction, one of the S&P’s most impressive recoveries from a major decline from a prior all-time high. Other times it made a somewhat similarly-sized recovery over a quick- to moderate time frame, it tended to keep going, but it ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Uh-Oh, Options Speculators Are Back

2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


Sector battleThe ratio between the S&P 500’s technology and health care sectors has swung by an extreme amount. The 50-day rate of change in the ratio between the two has cycled from negative to a 10-year high.Since 1990, other times it swung like this, tech suffered, while health care held up ...

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Investors Cycle Into Cyclicals, Tech

2019-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


Cyclical reboundCyclical stocks got hit hard late last year, especially relative to defensive stocks. They’ve made an impressive rebound. The rate of change on the ratio of cyclical to defensive stocks has cycled from an extreme low to an extreme high.Over the past 20 years, a cycle like this ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Tech Breakout & Breadth, Screens

2019-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Most Confident "Dumb Money" In A Decade

2019-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


Maximum optimismDumb Money Confidence has been climbing steadily for a month, and stocks have so far shrugged off that extreme optimism. Now it has reached its highest level in a decade.Every date that saw this high of a reading in the past 20 years sported a negative return in the S&P 500 at ...

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Does The Low Volume Really Matter?

2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


Low-volume rallyEach of the past three weeks has seen the S&P 500 inch ever closer to a new high. At the same time, investors have grown increasingly comfortable, as volume continues to decline and is now more than 10% below its yearly average.It’s entirely normal for volume to ratchet higher ...

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color

2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Tech's Perfect Signal

2019-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


Tech’s fully recoveryOut of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, only one has made a fully recovery from the December decline, and it’s an important one. The information technology group has fully recovered from its decline of more than 24%.Other times it fully recovered a drop of 20% or more within ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-09 | Jason Goepfert


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2 Reasons Why Earnings Season Is A Worry

2019-04-09 | Jason Goepfert


Let the earnings beginAs companies start to report earnings this week, there is a fear that projected weak growth could be a stumbling block. To check, we go back to 1930 and look for every two-year span with the most similar earnings pattern of high growth, then low to negative growth, then ...

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The Curious Case Of Ebbing Momentum

2019-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


No mo’ mo-mo?Even as the S&P 500 index trades at a fresh 100-day high, the ratio of the S&P 500 Momentum Index to the S&P itself is struggling, and just hit a 30-day low.This divergence is like what happened last August. Longer-term, failing momentum wasn’t a consistent negative, but three of ...

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-05 | Jason Goepfert


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An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

2019-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ...

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Shanghai Rally Bodes Well Long-Term

2019-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Why The Price Surge Is A Good Sign

2019-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


GoldenThe concept of a Golden Cross is over-hyped, but it’s still a popular question. Putting some context to it, when the S&P’s 50-day average crosses above its 200-day after a medium-term decline, forward returns were okay, but nothing special. Over the next three months, an investor's average ...

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Surge In S&P For The Quarter, Off A Low, And With Bonds

2019-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Who's Afraid Of An IPO Surge?

2019-03-30 | Jason Goepfert


New issuesThe IPO market is thawing, and we could be on track for a record-breaking year. The only other years that investors absorbed this much in new issues, stocks stumbled the next year. But when accounting for inflation and the growing market value of all equities, it’s not such a worry.If ...

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Stocks, Bonds Rise As Volatility Diverges

2019-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


A balanced investor’s dreamThe S&P 500’s total return over the past three months is well over 10%. The total return in an aggregate bond index is up over 3% at the same time, a large move for that market.When both markets enjoyed such large total returns over a multi-month period, it tended to ...

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Catching Up

2019-03-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb

2019-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ...

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-03-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Options Bulls Return As Investors Get Whipsawed

2019-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


Options bulls returnThe smallest of options traders spent nearly 60% of their volume last week on bullish strategies, either buying call options or selling puts to open. That’s among the most aggressive bullishness using real money since the financial crisis.There were some weeks that showed ...

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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions

2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ...

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Slowing GDP As Survey Sentiment Rebounds During A Nice Couple Of Months

2019-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


Slowing growthThe GDP release relieved some investors by being better than feared. But forecasts show that growth this quarter is likely to be the lowest in 8 quarters.Like we’ve seen during past studies looking at economic or earnings recessions, the hype doesn’t often translate to forward ...

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ...

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An Industrial-Led Rally As Shanghai Surprises

2019-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


The rally’s workhorsesThe Industrials sector has led all major S&P 500 groups since the December 24 low, while defensive ones like Utilities have lagged.Going back to 1928 and looking at all two-month, 10% rallies from a low, we see that the rallies with the highest sector correlation to our ...

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Friday Midday Color

2019-02-22 | Jason Goepfert


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A Remarkable Run, As Bulls Return And Dow Stocks Are Above Average

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


A remarkable runBoth the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have enjoyed a near-historic run from their Christmas Eve lows. The magnitude of their gains, interrupted by only a few large daily losses, have been matched only a few times.The sample sizes are tiny, but the implications are mostly positive, ...

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Jobless Claims Hit 52-Week High As High Beta Shows Relative Struggles

2019-02-15 | Jason Goepfert


Climbing claimsA 4-week average of jobless claims hit a 52-week high this week, triggering an increase in the probability of recession.Other times that claims cycled from a 52-week low to a 52-week high since 1967, there was a headwind for stocks and tailwind for bonds, especially over the next ...

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Sustained Momentum Even As Cumulative Net New Highs Barely Budge

2019-02-12 | Jason Goepfert


Sustained momentumThe McClellan Summation Index continues to power higher, showing impressive and sustained momentum. After being below -500 for at least 10 consecutive days, it is now above +500 for 10 straight, flipping its momentum.When it has been able to maintain a high level after flipping ...

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Cumulative New High / New Low Lagging

2019-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Possible Earnings Contraction; Mom And Pop Roar Back; Dollar Momentum

2019-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings contractionCompanies in the S&P 500 have shown 10 quarters of year-over-year growth in operating earnings, but that streak is in danger of ending. Estimates for this quarter continue to come down.If that’s going to be the case, then traders start to anticipate slower growth, and returns ...

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U.S. Dollar Shows Short-Term Momentum

2019-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Nasdaq Escapes Bear Market As Investors Pull Out

2019-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


Escaping the bearThe Nasdaq Composite has ended its bear market, at least according to two metrics. Unlike its rallies during the 2001 and 2008 bear markets, this time it has managed to exceed the 61.8% retracement of the decline. And it has rallied 20% from its low, the accepted definition of a ...

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Nasdaq Escapes Its Bear Market

2019-02-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Good Overbought; Dow Leads Above 200-Day

2019-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


Good overboughtAfter reaching an extreme oversold reading in December, the long-term McClellan Summation Index has cycled back to an overbought reading. What’s notable about this is just how quickly the Summation Index has cycled up to 500 after being so depressed just a month ago. The only time ...

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McClellan Summation Crosses 500

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


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Back To Greed; Low Exposure; Oscillator Streak

2019-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Back to greedThe CNN Fear & Greed model has gone from extreme Fear in December to Greed now.It’s not unusual to see it swing this much, this quickly, but it is unusual when the S&P 500 still hasn’t made it above its 200-day averages. And those ...

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McClellan Oscillator Above 50 For 3 Weeks

2019-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Narrowing Smart-Dumb Spread; 4 Straight Up Weeks

2019-01-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Narrowing spreadAs stocks rally, Dumb Money has become more confident while Smart Money has increased their hedging activity. The spread between the two hit a multi-year extreme before Christmas and is now nearing zero for the first time in ...

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S&P Gains 1% Four Weeks In A Row

2019-01-22 | Jason Goepfert


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A Bad Month; Wide Confidence Spread

2018-11-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bad monthThe S&P suffered 16 negative days in October, tied for 3rd worst since 1928 and the most since 1970.The pressure was enough to trigger a sell signal for a popular trend-following strategy, with a close below its 10-month average, that ...

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Unshakable Confidence; Immense Last-Hour Selling Pressure

2018-10-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.UnshakableConsumer Confidence rose in October despite a bad month for stocks. The S&P dropped more than 5%, and not only did Confidence hit more than a 1-year high, it’s well over 100. Forward returns here were decent in the medium- to long-term, ...

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Massive Sell Programs; Hard, Fast Pullback, Near-Record Negative Momentum

2018-10-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody outDuring the past 3 weeks, we’ve seen a near-record amount of sell programs at some point during the trading day.The lowest NYSE TICK during that stretch is now the 2nd most extreme in history, with an average of more than a net 40% of ...

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A Non-Recessionary Correction; The Trend Is No Longer Your Friend

2018-10-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Non-recessionary pullbackMost recession models show a low probability of an imminent economic recession. If we use a simple, non-optimized, real-time model, it’s currently showing 0% probability.In that kind of environment, 10% pullbacks in stocks ...

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Quick Change In Character; Smart Money Steps In; Emerging Stocks Rebound

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A quick change in characterThe S&P went from 52-week high to below its 200-day average in only 3 weeks. That ended a streak of more than six months above its 200-day average. Other times it underwent a quick change in character, from a 52-week high ...

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Momentum Shift As Bonds Have Big Move

2018-10-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum shiftThe McClellan Summation Index is below zero for the first time in a half-year.It’s also turning negative while stocks are still relatively close to their recent highs, and that has been more of a negative shorter-term.Bonds’ biggest ...

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Options Bulls Reign As New Lows Rise Even Amid Good Price Momentum

2018-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Calling all bullsOptions traders are showing a historic preference for speculating on the upside. In recent weeks and months, they’ve spent most of their options volume on buying speculative calls.At the same time, they don’t want to risk a large ...

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Dow Theory Buy Signal Even As Homebuilders Slip

2018-09-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow theory buy signalBoth the Dow Industrials and Transports have reached new highs. This is the first new high in the Industrials in months, following the previous breakout from Transports. Similar buy signals according to trend-following theory ...

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An August High As Option Speculation Ramps Up

2018-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Summer highStocks ended August at their highest monthly close in at least 36 months. A new high in August has preceded poor returns during the next 1-4 weeks as September lived up to its reputation. The S&P struggled to hold its gains, especially ...

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Stocks Shrug Off Economic Reports Amid Buying Follow Through

2018-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shrugging off disappointmentEconomic reports haven’t kept up with economists’ outlooks, but it hasn’t mattered as the S&P 500 has rallied to all-time highs. When stocks hit a 200-day high and economic surprises a 200-day low, future returns were ...

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Dollar Fails As S&P Momentum Stalls

2018-08-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A dollar failureThe U.S. dollar ended a long streak without a new high in early August by closing at its first 52-week extreme in more than 400 sessions.Since then, it rallied more than 1%, then failed by closing below its breakout price, which has ...

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Record Positive Divergence As We Near An August High

2018-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A near-record positive divergenceThe S&P 500’s Advance/Decline Line is more than 5% above its high from January, showing that even as the index itself has struggled to hit a new high, a majority of stocks in the index have consistently climbed ...

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High-Yield Bonds Overbought As U.S. Stocks Beat The World

2018-08-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Junk bonds are anything butHigh-yield bonds have been among the best performers short- and long-term. That has led to an extreme overbought reading in the Relative Strength Index as well as a 52-week high in the iBoxx Liquid High Yield Index.That ...

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Breadth Divergences Not Much Of A Concern As Staples Recover

2018-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Few highs as indexes rallyThe S&P 500 has rallied close to its prior highs, but there is a divergence. Relatively few stocks are registering 4-, 12-, and 52-week highs as the index rallies.It’s a concern among technicians but has not been a ...

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Risk Appetite Wanes As Small-Caps' Trend Ends And Funds See Outflows

2018-07-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lack of risk appetiteDiscretionary stocks are at a multi-month low relative to defensive Staples.That sign of risk-off behavior is unusual with the S&P near a high but has not been a good excuse to sell stocks.Another trend endedThe small-cap ...

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Momentum Worries As Emerging Stocks Start Uptrending

2018-07-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum worriesAs the S&P hit a 100-day high, a very low % of stocks are showing momentum. An almost record low % of stocks are above their 10-day avg or have an RSI > 70, which has preceded weak shorter-term returns or failed rallies.Emerging ...

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Copper Drops To 200-Day Low As Value Lags And Gold Sinks

2018-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Copper slides to 200-day lowCopper closed at its lowest level since last July, a worry for believers in “Dr. Copper.”Its record for stocks is mixed, but for copper itself, it wasn’t a good sign.No valueOverseas investors have favored Momentum over ...

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Dow's Streak Snapped As China ETF Nears Bear Market

2018-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Had to happen sometimeThe Dow Industrials Average ended its 2-year streak of holding above its 200-day average, its 7th-longest streak in an uptrend since 1900.It wasn’t a death knell for the index, especially when the Leading Economic Indicators ...

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GE Booted From Dow As Russell And Nasdaq Hit Highs

2018-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Somebody turn on the lightsGE got booted from the DJIA after 100 years, after a similar stretch of poor returns from Alcoa when it was removed…and before it doubled during the next year.Other stocks that got removed from the Dow did fine going ...

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Gold Bugs' Bad Day As Cap-Weighted Indexes Take Over

2018-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gold bugs’ ruined weekendHeading into the weekend, gold futures suffered their largest loss in over a year, to a multi-month low. When it happened it May, the selling marked an exhaustion and gold worked higher. Most times it did something similar, ...

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Breadth Momentum Picks Up As Value Lags Growth And Homebuilders Turn Up

2018-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is picking upMomentum in breadth figures is returning, with the McClellan Summation Index climbing. When it reaches 500 for the first time in months, it has led to an excellent risk/reward skew for stocks.The S&P 500’s annualized return ...

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Energy ETF Traders Rush In As Animal Spirit Indicator Hits A High

2018-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF traders rush into EnergyAssets in the primary ETFs focused on the Energy sector have reached $32 billion, a new all-time high. That’s up 20% in just 30 days, among the most rapid increases since at least 2010.Similar surges led to declines for ...

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S&P Jumps Multiple Days As Volatility Halves

2018-02-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.What a difference a week makesThe S&P 500 has jumped more than 1% on 3 out of the past 4 sessions. That buying thrust comes on the heels of a multi-month low during a bullish long-term trend.Future shorter-term returns were skewed positive, a stark ...

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Gaps Galore As Another Streak Ends

2018-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gaps galoreHeading into the peak in January, stock futures were gapping up almost every day. Now, they’ve gapped down at the open almost every day, tied for the most in history over an 8-day span.Other tight clusters of gap down opens led to ...

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Fund Managers Ignore Cash As Streaks End

2018-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fund managers still hate cashMutual fund managers are holding a near-record low amount of cash according to the latest figures. That was easier to justify when interest rates were nearly zero but gets harder as rates rise.Their cash deficit is now ...

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Options Traders Pour Into Calls As Breadth Lags

2018-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Forget stock, call options have more oomphRetail traders have returned in a big way. We saw on Friday the surge in brokerage transactions, and that has bled over into the options market. The smallest of options traders put on a skyrocketing number ...

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Doubling Up Moving Average As S&P Members Get Overbought

2018-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Doubling up the averagesThe S&P is 3% above its short-term moving average, 6% above its medium-term and 13% above its long-term.It hasn’t managed to “double up” its gains above each successive moving average in 20 years. Similar bouts of momentum ...

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Gapping Up And Nasdaq New Highs

2018-01-24 | Jason Goepfert


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All-Day Trading As Shorts Flee

2018-01-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.With overnight gains, why not trade all day?Most of the gains in stocks come overnight, and mom and pop traders have taken note. TD Ameritrade is trying to meet that need by rolling out 24-hour trading. That rhymes with the 1999-2000 period when ...

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Momentum's Dominant Even As Biotech Turns

2018-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is enjoying its turnThe highest momentum stocks have nearly doubled the gains in the S&P 500 over the past year. That’s among their best relative performance in 20 years.If we zoom out and look at the past 90 years, there were periods with ...

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Persistent Trend As Stocks Become Stretched

2018-01-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The most persistent trendThe persistence of the S&P’s uptrend over the past year is among the highest in its history. Same goes for the past 3, 5, and 10 years.When we look at the 5 comparable trends, using the 200-day average as a guide was ...

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The S&P's Momentum Streak Aided By Industrials

2018-01-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The S&P’s consistent, rapid rallyThe most important index in the world has rallied consistently for the past 1, 3, and 6 months. It has also picked up its gains, nearing or exceeding its upper Bollinger Band on daily, weekly, and monthly time ...

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Global Momentum Spurs Melt Up Chatter

2018-01-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Global synchronized momentumMost major stock markets are not only rallying, they’re showing extreme momentum. The weekly Relative Strength Index across 6 major global indexes is now the highest in history.High readings in that indicator suggest ...

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January's Prediction Record, Soaring Materials And The "Not Too Hot" Streak

2018-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So goes January…or AugustA popular rule of thumb suggests that how stocks start a New Year means something for the full year. It correctly predicts the return over the next year about 60% of the time.That’s likely a statistical fluke, and other ...

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A Historic Streak As Investors Wade In

2018-01-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A(nother) historic streakAfter setting so many different records last year, 2018 is on track to score even more. Among them, the major indexes haven’t been more than 5% from a 52-week high for nearly 400 days (more than 450 days if we exclude a ...

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Happy New Year As Investors Go All In

2018-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy New YearThe S&P has enjoyed a record start to the year, with back-to-back gains and new highs. It has never before managed to climb more than 0.5% with 52-week highs on the first two sessions. Similar years saw pullbacks, with the short-term ...

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Dollar Doldrums Leads To Commodity Streak

2018-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dollar doldrumsThe dollar has only been able to rise twice in nearly three weeks, tied for its worst streak since it entered its trading range in 2015.Similar selloffs since then have led to quick rebounds, but longer-term history is mixed and not ...

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Mining Momentum And Gas Rally

2017-12-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mining momentumThe Metals & Mining industry is in the midst of a historic run. Over the past 30 days, it has enjoyed a cluster of up days seen only 4 other times since 1990.Each of the others led to short-term weakness.Gas powered rallyNatural gas ...

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No Negative Surprises As Indexes Hit Highs

2017-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No negative surprisesEvery major Economic Surprise Index across the world is now positive. From the U.S. to China, Europe to Emerging Markets, all regions have had economic reports that have exceeded economists’ expectations.When we’ve had such ...

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Record Small Business Optimism As Investors Buy The Dip

2017-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Near-record optimism (again)Small business owners are showing nearly the highest optimism readings in 45 years, confirming other surveys that are showing somewhere between multi-year to multi-decade extremes in optimism.High levels in the past led ...

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Strategists' 2018 Estimates; S&P's Relative Strength

2017-12-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Another 7% gain for 2018Wall Street strategists are looking for a 7% gain for the S&P 500 in 2018. That’s slightly more optimistic than the Big Money poll a couple of months ago, and it’s about what they estimate every year. Actual results vary ...

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Quiet Market No More

2017-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


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All Four Major Indexes At New Highs

2016-11-22 | Jason Goepfert


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