The Fed keeps saying that inflation is transitory. Is it or is it not? The truth is no one knows for sure. But gasoline prices may be about to offer an important clue as to which way this all plays out. If gas prices do what they typically do, then the skies may clear fairly quickly. But if they do not, the clouds of inflation may continue to gather and darken.
Sundial Capital Research is an independent investment research firm dedicated to the application of mass psychology to the financial markets. Sundial publishes the SentimenTrader.com website.
Our focus is not market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.