Posts tagged as Surveys


Individuals are still being left out

2020-07-31 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Consumers keep fighting this uptrend

2020-07-30 | Jason Goepfert


Over the past four months, stocks have soared. But consumers are not buying it, with more of them expecting stocks to fall than rise in the future.

Read More ...

Despite gains, more consumers expect stocks to fall

2020-07-29 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Two common sentiment indicators are in complete conflict

2020-07-20 | Jason Goepfert


Put/call ratios are low, showing a lack of hedging and a lot of confidence among traders. But the AAII survey is showing extreme pessimism. Who to trust?

Read More ...

Investors are pessimistic, but buying speculative options

2020-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Small business sales outlook rebounds

2020-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Investors are saying one thing, but doing another

2020-07-06 | Jason Goepfert


Investors taking the AAII surveys say that they're pessimistic, and yet they have a high allocation to the stock market.

Read More ...

AAII survey is a case study in saying vs doing

2020-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Wall Street strategists have never been more pessimistic about the 2nd half

2020-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


Wall Street strategists are forecasting a loss for the S&P 500 over the next 6 months, something they don't do often.

Read More ...

Wall Street has never been more confused

2020-06-30 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Individual investors refuse to say they're bullish

2020-06-29 | Jason Goepfert


The AAII survey shows that individual investors continue to think stocks will decline, continuing a near-record stretch of apathy.

Read More ...

Weekly Wrap: Questionable participation, a historic Nasdaq run, consumer attitudes

2020-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Individual investors won't give up the bearish ghost

2020-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Newsletter writers return to optimism

2020-06-25 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Fund managers find eurozone unattractive

2020-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Farrell Sentiment indicator suggests a good year

2020-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Euro area sentiment is recovering from depression

2020-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Consumers are feeling increasingly positive about the future

2020-05-26 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Weekly Wrap: Signs of speculation continue to pop up

2020-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Consumers and experts think the future will be better

2020-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Weekly Wrap: Questionable price and breadth action, with a jump in speculation

2020-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Institutions believe in stocks a lot more than mom-and-pop

2020-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


When it comes to markets, "book learnin'" isn't necessarily a good thing

2020-05-12 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Despite the big rally, it's hard to see who's buying

2020-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


Stocks have rallied hard over the past month, but the AAII survey is showing extreme pessimism.

Read More ...

Who is actually buying?

2020-05-07 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Weekly Wrap: A strong start even as economic data plunge

2020-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Consumers negative for now, but hopeful for tomorrow

2020-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Coronavirus craters consumers' confidence

2020-04-28 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Big money managers ease their pessimism

2020-04-27 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Consumers pull a 180 on stocks, but are trading like crazy

2020-04-27 | Jason Goepfert


As the pandemic unfolded, retail investors traded like crazy, with a jump in DARTs, while consumers increasingly think stocks will fall.

Read More ...

Consumers pull back while investors churn

2020-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Surveys say that investors aren't buying this rally

2020-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


A model of surveys across investor groups shows that optimism remains tepid despite a massive surge in stocks in the past month.

Read More ...

Surveys show persistent pessimism

2020-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


ZEW survey shows optimism during dire conditions

2020-04-21 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Mom-and-pop are not interested

2020-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


Bears in the AAII sentiment survey continue to outnumber bulls, despite a massive rally in stocks.

Read More ...

Mom-and-pop stay on the sidelines

2020-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Consumers are increasingly expecting negative returns

2020-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Confidence in stocks pulls back from record

2020-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Newsletters give up

2020-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Writers Have Been Right As Stocks Emerge From Bear Markets

2020-01-23 | Jason Goepfert


Newsletter writers have been very bullish for 13 straight weeks. Fewer than 10% of stocks in the S&P 500 are now in a bear market.

Read More ...

Persistent Momentum Gets Investors Back In The Mood

2019-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Investors are back in the moodAfter more than 9 months, the AAII survey of individual investors shows that more than two-thirds of them are finally ...

Read More ...

Maybe Strategists Are Betting On Black Swans

2019-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


Wall Street strategists aren't very optimistic about 2020, and black swans are on sale again.More apathetic strategistsAnother survey of Wall Street strategists shows that even more of them are lukewarm on the prospects for stocks in 2020. Their average guess is for the S&P to gain a lowly 4%, ...

Read More ...

Insiders' Sentiment Is Less Rosy Than Investors'

2019-12-06 | Jason Goepfert


Corporate insider sentiment has diverged from investors' as the AAII survey shows a jump in optimism.Insiders’ insightsThe ISM survey of purchasing managers continues to hover near its lowest level in years, even while the gain in stocks over the past 12 months is among its best in years. That ...

Read More ...

Double Trouble

2019-11-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Double troubleFor the first time in several months, two technical warning signs triggered on the Nasdaq exchange. There hasn’t been a cluster, and they ...

Read More ...

More Evidence Of Recession-Era Sentiment

2019-11-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Recession sentimentAnother survey of insiders at companies in the Midwest shows the kind of sentiment normally seen during and in the latter stages of a ...

Read More ...

Nightmare Of 2008 Still Haunts Consumers

2019-10-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.DisbelieversEver since the financial crisis, consumers polled by the Conference Board have shown a consistent mistrust of stocks, with brief exceptions. This ...

Read More ...

Big Money Has Never Been More Bearish

2019-10-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big Money BearsFor the first time in 20 years, the big money is betting against stocks. The latest semi-annual survey of big money managers by Barron’s showed ...

Read More ...

Thursday Color - Bond Jitters, Energy Stock Losses, AAII Bulls Jump, DAX Breakout; Dollar's 100-Day

2019-10-17 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


A rebound in momentum but investors are still crabby

2019-10-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.In recoveryMomentum stocks have largely recovered from the swift, massive losses earlier in September. That drop triggered a rise in anxiety, but it’s not the ...

Read More ...

What I'm looking at - economic policy, NAAIM vs AAII, yield curve

2019-10-11 | Troy Bombardia


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism

2019-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Late Cycle Behavior Triggers Crash In Insider Confidence

2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Late cycle behaviorInvestors have become concerned that we’re late in the business cycle and nearing recession. News articles catering to the fears are ...

Read More ...

Thursday Color - Depressed investors, negative gamma, Anti-Zweig thrust, signs of anxiety

2019-10-03 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Consumers haven't been this depressed in 8 years

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers’ concernsThis month, U.S. consumers decided that the economy was headed for a rough patch and stocks were likely to follow. To the greatest extent ...

Read More ...

What I'm looking at - IPO fear, Index Put/Call, Consumer Confidence, Baltic Dry Index, Bullish Percent Index

2019-09-26 | Troy Bombardia


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Investors Ease In As FedEx Crashes

2019-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Easing back inIndividual investors are easing back into stocks. The latest AAII survey shows that the Bull Ratio has cycled from extreme pessimism to modest ...

Read More ...

Thursday Color - Russell vs S&P Volatility, Summation Extremes, IWM Inflow, AAII Bulls

2019-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Tuesday Color - Big Managers Get Bullish, Gold/Dollar Correlation Spike, Repo Rate, Volatility Premium

2019-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

2019-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Why So Defensive?

2019-09-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.High on defensivesThe most defensive sectors of the market, consumer staples and utilities, saw a jump in the number of stocks rising to 52-week highs.This ...

Read More ...

Sectors In Sync Makes Investors Crabby

2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.All up or all downHalf of the days so far this month have seen every major S&P 500 sector move up or down together. This makes it one of the most "all ...

Read More ...

S&P 500 w/in 5% of 52-week high and 4-week AAII Bull Ratio < 36%

2019-08-29 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Consumers Vs. Investors As Silver Pops

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers vs. investorsThe latest Consumer Confidence reading shows that U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate an extremely positive outlook on their ...

Read More ...

Monday Color - A Month Of Swings, Economic Uncertainty, Sectors, Scramble For Protection

2019-08-26 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Friday Color - Wipeout, Extremes, HiLo Too High

2019-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

2019-08-14 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


A Historic Sentiment Shift

2019-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


Irrational pessimismThe survey of individual investors from AAII can be noisy from week to week, with sometimes drastic changes. Even so, it’s rare to see them change as much as they did this week, with one of the largest drops in optimism in history.Sentiment became so low, during a generally ...

Read More ...

AAII Survey Shows Big Drop, Low Optimism

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Wednesday Color - Bulls Gone, Put Volume, Energy Drop, Asian Axiety

2019-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Wednesday Color - Dow Stocks, Dumb Money, Gamma, Microsoft Expectations, Germany

2019-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Monday Color - Short-Term Optimism, Funds Vs Options, Lagging Small Caps And Surprises, Bulls Return, Bonds

2019-07-08 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Wednesday Color - Tweets, Confidence Spread, Gold, Surprise Impact

2019-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


After This Happened, Stocks Fell 15%

2019-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


A trio of laggardsEven though the S&P 500 recently hit a fresh all-time high, several sectors have been trailing. Small-cap stocks, transports, and banks have all hit new 52-week lows relative to the S&P.This is atypical behavior, with a tendency to lead to selling pressure. When two of the ...

Read More ...

Tuesday Color - Less Confident, Relative Lows, Bond Optimism, Gold Surge

2019-06-25 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Gold Just Did Something For The 1st Time In 25 Years

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


Gold’s near-record streakGold broke out to a multi-year high for the first time in more than 2,000 days, which was nearly its longest streak in 40 years.The ends of other super-long streaks without a new high all saw the metal trade lower over the next couple of months. The dollar tended to be ...

Read More ...

3rd Time's The Charm?

2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


Rush for the exitThe latest BofAML survey of fund managers showed one of the largest monthly declines in exposure in 20 years. That seems like it should be a contrary indicator, but has been decidedly not, with consistent declines in the months ahead and almost no rallies, which contrarians ...

Read More ...

Tuesday Color - Fund Manager Panic, New Model, OEX, UAE, Miners

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


What A Steeper Curve Really Means

2019-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


Curve steepensInvestors are fairly obsessed with the yield curve and its potential message for all markets. The widely watched spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries neared inversion but has quickly reversed and hit its highest level in 6 months.The steepening is often what causes trouble, but ...

Read More ...

A Sign Of Irrational Pessimism

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


Irrational pessimismIndividual investors keep getting more pessimistic. While stocks have had a bad week, investors’ pessimism is extremely high given the mild pullback in stocks.There haven’t been many times investors were as negative as they are now when the S&P was still sitting within 5% of ...

Read More ...

Individuals Showing Irrational Pessimism

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Confidence Has Flipped From Dumb To Smart

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


Confidence flipFor the first time in four months, Smart Money Confidence has moved above Dumb Money Confidence.Usually by the time the spread between them has flipped after several months, stocks were seeing the last bits of selling pressure.With one major exception, these were mostly good ...

Read More ...

Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Investors Are Leaving Early

2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


Leaving earlyWhen stocks fell more than 10% into mid-December last year, it was easy to forgive individual investors who turned negative. This week, they were almost as negative as they were then, despite the S&P being less than 2.5% off its high.Other times of premature negativity typically ...

Read More ...

Thursday Midday Color - Panic, Few Bulls, Asian Slide

2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Low AAII Bull Ratio During A Healthy Market

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Foreigners Are Selling, And That's A Good Sign

2019-05-17 | Jason Goepfert


Home country biasThe latest data from the Treasury shows that foreign investors have been selling U.S. stocks at a record pace. They’ve sold an average of $17 billion per month for the past year.That accounts for about 0.05% of the total market cap of U.S. equities, the most in 30 years. During ...

Read More ...

Thursday Midday Color - Gap Fills, Bull Drops, Social Pessimists

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Momentum Traders' First Real Test

2019-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


Testing momentumIn early January, stocks registered a Zweig Breath Thrust when Up Volume quickly swung from oversold to overbought. This week, the indicator hit an oversold level for the first time, testing momentum traders’ conviction.Other times that months passed between a thrust and the ...

Read More ...

Thursday Midday Color - First Pullback, Weak Sectors, Returning Investors

2019-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Tuesday Midday Color - No Cash, Bullish On Bonds, Financials' Breadth

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ...

Read More ...

Friday Midday Color - Flows, Breadth Extremes, Shanghai

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk

2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Thursday Midday Color

2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Friday Midday Color

2019-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Close 1-Year Analogs, As Confidence Peaks

2019-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


A year like ‘90Hand-picked price overlays can show some scary comparisons to the past year, like 1937. But the one-year period with the highest correlation since 1928 was 1990, which led to tremendous gains.Of the 17 one-year periods with the highest correlation to the past year, the next few ...

Read More ...

Waning Consumer Confidence

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


A Remarkable Run, As Bulls Return And Dow Stocks Are Above Average

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


A remarkable runBoth the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have enjoyed a near-historic run from their Christmas Eve lows. The magnitude of their gains, interrupted by only a few large daily losses, have been matched only a few times.The sample sizes are tiny, but the implications are mostly positive, ...

Read More ...

Smart Money Buys In As Other Managers Sit Out

2019-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


Smart money piles inAs delayed reports get released, we’re seeing that “smart money” hedgers were busy buying Nasdaq and DJIA futures in January. This is unusual since the market was rising, and it’s even more unusual how aggressive they were.When they went net long those contracts since the ...

Read More ...

Possible Earnings Contraction; Mom And Pop Roar Back; Dollar Momentum

2019-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings contractionCompanies in the S&P 500 have shown 10 quarters of year-over-year growth in operating earnings, but that streak is in danger of ending. Estimates for this quarter continue to come down.If that’s going to be the case, then traders start to anticipate slower growth, and returns ...

Read More ...

AAII Stock - Cash Allocation Back To An Extreme

2019-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Record Outflow As Mom-And-Pop Sit On The Sidelines

2019-02-04 | Jason Goepfert


Record flowComprehensive data on mutual fund flows confirm that the massive loss in December for equity funds was the largest on record, dating back 35 years. As a percentage of assets, it was exceeded only by July 2002 and October 2008 in recent history.Money market funds saw huge inflows, but ...

Read More ...

Emerging Markets Breakout; Fidelity Managers Beat Cash; Baltic Dry Collapse

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Breaking outEmerging markets have closed above their 200-day average for the first time since last spring, a streak of nearly 9 months. That’s one of the longer streaks in 30 years.Other times an emerging markets index ended long streaks below its ...

Read More ...

Last-Hour Binge Buying; Shutdown Ends; Consumers' Flagging Expectations

2019-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy endingOver the past month, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 0.3% on average during the last hour of trading, one of its largest-ever clusters of gains.Not only has it been aggressive, it has been consistent. As noted by the fine folks at ...

Read More ...

Disappointed Economists; A Weak Leading Index

2019-01-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.DisappointedConcerns about an economic or earnings recession have skyrocketed over the last couple of months, and disappointing economic reports worldwide are not helping. Economic surprise indexes across the world are all below zero, and the most ...

Read More ...

Earnings Recession; Investors Reduce Exposure; Record Outflows

2019-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Recession talkConcerns are rising about a recession. Even if we don’t see an economic one, we may be in store for an earnings recession.The data is not showing that as likely, but even if it happens, it does not necessarily mean that stock prices ...

Read More ...

Newsletters Throw In The Towel; Record Reversals

2019-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Throwing in the towelOver the past decade, it has taken some severe moves in stocks, in a very short amount of time, to shake optimism among newsletter writers. That’s what happened now, with a near-record drop in sentiment. For the first time in ...

Read More ...

Newsletters Are Shorting; Breadth Swings; No Highs; Big Outflow; Buying Stampede

2018-12-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get shortyWhile individual investors in the AAII survey became pessimistic a week ago, this week there were more than 50% bears in the survey for the first time in 5 years. That has made a different in other surveys, too. According to one measure ...

Read More ...

No Flight To Safety In Bonds; Investors Have Turned Pessimistic

2018-11-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bond market movesBonds sold off along with stocks during the last two big pullbacks this year, showing no flight to safety. That is unlike 2016 when bonds rose as stocks declined.Historically, when bonds declined along with stocks during a selloff, ...

Read More ...

Unshakable Confidence; Immense Last-Hour Selling Pressure

2018-10-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.UnshakableConsumer Confidence rose in October despite a bad month for stocks. The S&P dropped more than 5%, and not only did Confidence hit more than a 1-year high, it’s well over 100. Forward returns here were decent in the medium- to long-term, ...

Read More ...

Consumers Are Comfortable As Gold Drops Amid Smart Money Big Short

2018-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Signs of intense comfortAnother survey is showing a high level of confidence among U.S. consumers. The Conference Board, University of Michigan and Bloomberg surveys are now all near multi-decade highs. When the two oldest are taken together, the ...

Read More ...

Bulls Double Bears Even As Lumber Tumbles

2018-09-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bulls continue to double bearsBulls among newsletter writers in the Investor’s Intelligence survey are more than twice as numerous as bears. This is the 98th straight week, by far the longest ever, showing a historic faith in the uptrend. The ...

Read More ...

Consumers Can't Lose As Oil Ratchets Up New Highs

2018-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.That can’t-lose feelingConsumers in the U.S. have almost never felt as ebullient as they do now. They are comfortable and confident to a degree rarely, if ever, seen before. The few times in 50 years they’ve been as confident according to the ...

Read More ...

Comfort Nears Record High As ETF Inflows Surge

2018-09-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A comfortable timeConsumers are about as comfortable as they’ve been at any time in 30 years according to the latest survey from Bloomberg. Other periods of exceptionally high comfort led to trouble in stocks, but years later, while gold did ...

Read More ...

Managers Favor U.S. As Market Sees Historic Split

2018-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.There’s no place like homeFund managers are showing a multi-year preference for U.S. stocks. A popular survey from BAML shows that managers are heavily overweight the U.S. versus both emerging market and eurozone stocks. But that hasn’t necessarily ...

Read More ...

Small Starts To Struggle As Confidence Leads To Dollar Peaks

2018-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small hasn’t been so beautifulWhile leading year-to-date, small-caps have been lagging the S&P over the past few months. The ratio of the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 is very close to falling to a multi-month low, a worse sign for small-caps than ...

Read More ...

A "Small" Split As Investors Pull Back

2018-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A “small” splitThe Russell 2000 is near its highs, but relatively few of its stocks are trading above their moving averages. There has also been an uptick in its stocks hitting multi-month lows.The only other times this has happened to this degree ...

Read More ...

Small Business Has Never Been Better As Hong Kong Slides Into A Bear

2018-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Never betterSmall business owner optimism is at record highs, surpassing two other periods since 1979.Despite worries about labor, owners have exceptionally high confidence about future conditions. It is backward-looking for stocks, though, and ...

Read More ...

Bulls Say They're Hesitant While Active Managers Jump In

2018-08-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Maybe bulls are just superstitiousEven though investors are buying, they won’t say they’re bullish in sentiment surveys. The AIM Model, which monitors an array of longstanding surveys, has been below 50% for 6 months, one of the longest streaks ...

Read More ...

Hedge Funds Exposed To Dollar While Consumers' Optimism Time-Shifts

2018-08-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Riding the buckHedge funds have the largest exposure to the dollar in four years. Their returns over the past month have been highly correlated to moves in the buck. They also have a near-record inverse correlation to gold, which has preceded ...

Read More ...

Russell's Band Bounce And Lack Of German Confidence

2018-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Russell band bounceThe small-cap Russell 2000 has bounced from its lower Bollinger Band to its upper in just a week’s time.That kind of rebound has preceded impressive gains over the next six months.German vote of no confidenceA German economic ...

Read More ...

Economic Surprises Turn Negative, So Do Investors And Gold

2018-06-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A slip in surprisesU.S. economic surprises have ended their longest-ever positive streak, after being positive since last September.The ends of other long positive streaks led to mixed returns in stocks, excellent ones in bonds, and poor in ...

Read More ...

Corporate Bonds Diverge As Small Businesses See Record Optimism

2018-06-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bond market battleThe spread on high-yield bonds has sunk to a multi-year low, while investment-grades are at a year high. That is exceptionally unusual, as corporate spreads typically move more or less together.It seems like it should be a good ...

Read More ...

ETF Investors Stay Home As Mom & Pop Go Back To Stocks

2018-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors stay homeFlows into domestic ETFs have swamped that of overseas funds over the past 4 weeks.The other times it happened to this degree, world stocks started to outperform the S&P.Mom & pop ignore safetyIndividual investors are showing ...

Read More ...

New Dollar Trend As Newsletters Keep Selling

2018-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A new day for the dollarThe U.S. dollar has closed above its long-term average for the first time in a year. Other times it ended a long streak in a downtrend, it continued to rally in the shorter-term.Its attempts at a new trend led to horrid ...

Read More ...

Consumers Turn Bearish As Dow, Staples Decline

2018-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Consumers are buying…just not stocksThe latest Consumer Confidence survey shows more consumers expect stocks to decline than rally. That’s the first time since the November 2016 election that the U.S. consumer has been bearish on stocks.Other times ...

Read More ...

Newsletter Optimism Ebbs As Gaps Pile Up

2018-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ebbing optimismNewsletter writers have continued to pull back their stock market expectations. The Investor’s Intelligence Bull Ratio is now below 70% for the first time in more than six months.Other times a long streak of optimism ended, stocks ...

Read More ...

Gold Miners Lag As Investment Managers Sell

2018-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Miners’ minor monthsGold mining stocks have underperformed gold prices by more than 10% over the past couple of months.Due to their higher volatility, this is considered a negative for gold prices going forward. There is some modest truth to this, ...

Read More ...

Corporate Bonds Struggle As Newsletter Writers Retrench

2018-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Corporate bond strugglesOver the past 30 days, investment-grade corporate bonds have had some of the worst breadth readings in 13 years. Fewer than 42% of bonds advanced, and more than 12% of them hit 52-week lows on average.Forward returns after ...

Read More ...

Big Stock Swings As Consumers Retrench

2018-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Big swinging ticksThe past four days have seen stocks swing with heavy positive and negative ticks, gyrating near a multi-month low. We haven’t seen that since 2011, and normally only in bear markets. Since 1950, such persistent wild swings have ...

Read More ...

Technology Beats Utilities As Confidence Rises

2018-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Tech ramps against staid UtilitiesThe ratio of Tech to Utes has soared in the past couple of years, similar to the 2000 bubble years. It’s not quite that extreme, though, and there were other periods when investors greatly favored the riskier ...

Read More ...

Neutral Investors, With Soaring Small-Caps And Dow Theory Warning

2018-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mom and pop just shrugIndividual investors have become neutral to one of the most extreme degrees in the past 15 years.That’s usually a good sign in a bull market, especially longer-term. It’s also been a good sign that there are more bears than ...

Read More ...

Breadth Gets Oversold As Consumer Confidence Rises

2018-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Oversold alreadyAt least one primary breadth indicator is showing that recent selling pressure is extreme. It’s rare to see the McClellan Oscillator this stretched to the downside just a few days after an all-time high in the S&P.Similar readings ...

Read More ...

Burst Of New Highs As Optimism Hits 30-Year High

2018-01-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A rare burst of new highsMost of the major indexes and sectors had more than 25% of their stocks hit a 52-week high on Tuesday. Only Staples and Utilities saw fewer than 10% of their stocks hit a new high. On average across indexes and sectors, 27% ...

Read More ...

Gap Up While Bears Scatter And New Highs Jump

2018-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


A Historic Streak As Investors Wade In

2018-01-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A(nother) historic streakAfter setting so many different records last year, 2018 is on track to score even more. Among them, the major indexes haven’t been more than 5% from a 52-week high for nearly 400 days (more than 450 days if we exclude a ...

Read More ...

Happy New Year As Investors Go All In

2018-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy New YearThe S&P has enjoyed a record start to the year, with back-to-back gains and new highs. It has never before managed to climb more than 0.5% with 52-week highs on the first two sessions. Similar years saw pullbacks, with the short-term ...

Read More ...

Record Exposure As Small-Caps Drop And Commodities Suffer

2017-12-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Record exposureActive investment managers saw a record jump to record exposure and record aggressiveness toward stocks this week.There is a tendency to think this is automatically a contrary sign, but it has not been a consistent signal in the ...

Read More ...

Record Small Business Optimism As Investors Buy The Dip

2017-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Near-record optimism (again)Small business owners are showing nearly the highest optimism readings in 45 years, confirming other surveys that are showing somewhere between multi-year to multi-decade extremes in optimism.High levels in the past led ...

Read More ...

Bullish Mom And Pop And Options Traders

2017-12-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Shades of 2000 for mom and popIndividual investors haven’t had this small of a cash cushion since 2000. In November, their cash holdings dropped below the prior recent lows in 2015 and August of this year.At the same time, they are heavily ...

Read More ...

Bulls Reach 30-Year Highs On Futures Gap

2017-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Investment Managers Leveraged Long And Confident

2016-07-28 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


AAII Survey Shows Big Jump In Bulls

2016-06-02 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


A 19-Year Low In Stock Holdings?

2016-04-21 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Opening Gap Odds As Investor Optimism Doubles

2016-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Survey Pessimism Pushes AIM Model To Low Level

2016-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


Individual Investors Flee

2016-01-14 | Jason Goepfert


This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content


next page →