Posts tagged as Surveys


A rebound in momentum but investors are still crabby

2019-10-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.In recoveryMomentum stocks have largely recovered from the swift, massive losses earlier in September. That drop triggered a rise in anxiety, but it’s not the ...

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What I'm looking at - economic policy, NAAIM vs AAII, yield curve

2019-10-11 | Troy Bombardia


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Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism

2019-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Late Cycle Behavior Triggers Crash In Insider Confidence

2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Late cycle behaviorInvestors have become concerned that we’re late in the business cycle and nearing recession. News articles catering to the fears are ...

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Thursday Color - Depressed investors, negative gamma, Anti-Zweig thrust, signs of anxiety

2019-10-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Consumers haven't been this depressed in 8 years

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers’ concernsThis month, U.S. consumers decided that the economy was headed for a rough patch and stocks were likely to follow. To the greatest extent ...

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What I'm looking at - IPO fear, Index Put/Call, Consumer Confidence, Baltic Dry Index, Bullish Percent Index

2019-09-26 | Troy Bombardia


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Investors Ease In As FedEx Crashes

2019-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Easing back inIndividual investors are easing back into stocks. The latest AAII survey shows that the Bull Ratio has cycled from extreme pessimism to modest ...

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Thursday Color - Russell vs S&P Volatility, Summation Extremes, IWM Inflow, AAII Bulls

2019-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Big Managers Get Bullish, Gold/Dollar Correlation Spike, Repo Rate, Volatility Premium

2019-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

2019-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today as momentum stocks once again fare poorly.Value's BackThe trash bin is overflowing with proclamations that finally value stocks are about to have their moment in the sun. They've lagged growth stocks so badly, and for so long, that sentiment seems ... [...]

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Why So Defensive?

2019-09-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.High on defensivesThe most defensive sectors of the market, consumer staples and utilities, saw a jump in the number of stocks rising to 52-week highs.This ... [...]

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Sectors In Sync Makes Investors Crabby

2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.All up or all downHalf of the days so far this month have seen every major S&P 500 sector move up or down together. This makes it one of the most "all ... [...]

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S&P 500 w/in 5% of 52-week high and 4-week AAII Bull Ratio < 36%

2019-08-29 | Jason Goepfert


It’s been weeks of indecision with stocks gyrating based on the latest tweet or rumor, and it has worn investors down. For one of the few times in history, sentiment has become exceedingly pessimistic despite a healthy market.See the August 29 report for more detail. [...]

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Consumers Vs. Investors As Silver Pops

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers vs. investorsThe latest Consumer Confidence reading shows that U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate an extremely positive outlook on their ... [...]

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Monday Color - A Month Of Swings, Economic Uncertainty, Sectors, Scramble For Protection

2019-08-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks swing wildly from their weekend lows.Quite A MonthWe seem to be on track for another whipsaw, as markets try to recover from conflicting messages over the weekend, following a rocky end to the week.Price patterns probably mean less now than they ever ... [...]

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Friday Color - Wipeout, Extremes, HiLo Too High

2019-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


I'm technically out of the office today, but with the volatility wanted to touch on a couple of things. We were humming along fine, until the renewed bout of chest-pounding hit the tape and now stocks are suffering relatively large losses.Friday WipeoutThere is a concern that a big wipeout on a ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

2019-08-14 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we go through yet another volatile session.CurvyMight as well get to it, since it's going to be a popular topic today. Another part of the Treasury yield curve inverted (or threatening to do so depending on the data source). The one that matters the most ... [...]

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A Historic Sentiment Shift

2019-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


Irrational pessimismThe survey of individual investors from AAII can be noisy from week to week, with sometimes drastic changes. Even so, it’s rare to see them change as much as they did this week, with one of the largest drops in optimism in history.Sentiment became so low, during a generally ... [...]

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AAII Survey Shows Big Drop, Low Optimism

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


This week, the Bull Ratio (Bulls / (Bulls + Bears)) dropped below 32%, an exceptionally low reading since the financial crisis. Even going back to the survey’s inception over 30 years ago, it’s still extreme. Especially considering that the S&P 500 has held above its 52-week moving average. When ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Bulls Gone, Put Volume, Energy Drop, Asian Axiety

2019-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another volatile morning.Buy The DipIt's still awfully early, but SPY is on track to recover at least 1.25% from its intraday low on back-to-back sessions, after having dropped to at least a one-month low.Since the end of the financial crisis, that has ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Dow Stocks, Dumb Money, Gamma, Microsoft Expectations, Germany

2019-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as some of the negatives that have piled up start to take some effect.Sector BreadthIndustrial stocks have been chugging higher, and it has been enough that nearly every Dow Industrial stock is trading above their 50-day moving average. This is the best out of ... [...]

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Monday Color - Short-Term Optimism, Funds Vs Options, Lagging Small Caps And Surprises, Bulls Return, Bonds

2019-07-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets suffer their usual post-holiday slide.Short-Term ExtremesWhile stocks didn't surge last week, they did hold their gains. And whoever was still trading over a holiday week was pretty optimistic it was going to continue.The shortest-term indicators we ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Tweets, Confidence Spread, Gold, Surprise Impact

2019-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks meekly try to recover from yesterday's selling.Trump TweetsWhatever your opinion of him, there is no arguing that the president is a careful monitor of the stock market and it's collective opinion of him. In the past week, he's taken an increased ... [...]

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After This Happened, Stocks Fell 15%

2019-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


A trio of laggardsEven though the S&P 500 recently hit a fresh all-time high, several sectors have been trailing. Small-cap stocks, transports, and banks have all hit new 52-week lows relative to the S&P.This is atypical behavior, with a tendency to lead to selling pressure. When two of the ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Less Confident, Relative Lows, Bond Optimism, Gold Surge

2019-06-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a mostly weak day. Markets are likely going to be held to the latest posturings and headlines ahead of and during the upcoming G-20 meeting.Less ConfidentThe latest Consumer Confidence survey came in way below economists' expectations, which won't help the ... [...]

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Gold Just Did Something For The 1st Time In 25 Years

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


Gold’s near-record streakGold broke out to a multi-year high for the first time in more than 2,000 days, which was nearly its longest streak in 40 years.The ends of other super-long streaks without a new high all saw the metal trade lower over the next couple of months. The dollar tended to be ... [...]

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3rd Time's The Charm?

2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


Rush for the exitThe latest BofAML survey of fund managers showed one of the largest monthly declines in exposure in 20 years. That seems like it should be a contrary indicator, but has been decidedly not, with consistent declines in the months ahead and almost no rallies, which contrarians ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Fund Manager Panic, New Model, OEX, UAE, Miners

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks jump on the latest hopeful headlines.Fund Manager PanicWe've already seen evidence that individuals have reached near-panic conditions over the past few weeks. They took out a massive number of hedges, they've said they're near a record level of ... [...]

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What A Steeper Curve Really Means

2019-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


Curve steepensInvestors are fairly obsessed with the yield curve and its potential message for all markets. The widely watched spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries neared inversion but has quickly reversed and hit its highest level in 6 months.The steepening is often what causes trouble, but ... [...]

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A Sign Of Irrational Pessimism

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


Irrational pessimismIndividual investors keep getting more pessimistic. While stocks have had a bad week, investors’ pessimism is extremely high given the mild pullback in stocks.There haven’t been many times investors were as negative as they are now when the S&P was still sitting within 5% of ... [...]

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Individuals Showing Irrational Pessimism

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


Over the past couple of weeks, individual investors have become increasingly negative on the prospects for stocks. They have rarely been more negative with stocks so close to their highs.When they have been this anxious before, stocks have consistently rallied. See the May 30, 2019 report for ... [...]

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Confidence Has Flipped From Dumb To Smart

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


Confidence flipFor the first time in four months, Smart Money Confidence has moved above Dumb Money Confidence.Usually by the time the spread between them has flipped after several months, stocks were seeing the last bits of selling pressure.With one major exception, these were mostly good ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another morning with a largish negative gap open.GapStocks are showing another large negative gap this morning, adding to what has been a near-record cluster of anxious openings. Forgetting the fact that this comes on the heels of that cluster, we can see ... [...]

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Investors Are Leaving Early

2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


Leaving earlyWhen stocks fell more than 10% into mid-December last year, it was easy to forgive individual investors who turned negative. This week, they were almost as negative as they were then, despite the S&P being less than 2.5% off its high.Other times of premature negativity typically ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Panic, Few Bulls, Asian Slide

2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this increasingly ugly-looking day.More GapsThe anxiety surrounding trade worries is the reason most commonly given to traders' overnight anxiety. Whatever the reason, there is no question that they don't want to hang around for the opening of regular ... [...]

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Low AAII Bull Ratio During A Healthy Market

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


The AAII survey showed a relatively low percentage of bulls and high percentage of bears. The resulting Bull Ratio was only 44%, well below the 58% average seen during healthy markets.When "healthy" is defined a number of different ways, a Bull Ratio this low has consistently preceded gains in ... [...]

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Foreigners Are Selling, And That's A Good Sign

2019-05-17 | Jason Goepfert


Home country biasThe latest data from the Treasury shows that foreign investors have been selling U.S. stocks at a record pace. They’ve sold an average of $17 billion per month for the past year.That accounts for about 0.05% of the total market cap of U.S. equities, the most in 30 years. During ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Gap Fills, Bull Drops, Social Pessimists

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this gap-fill day.ClosureBuyers stepped in big-time and have pushed stocks above where they were before the large gap down on Monday. This is a quick turnaround - it usually takes longer for SPY to close a downside gap that large.When it does so quickly, ... [...]

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Momentum Traders' First Real Test

2019-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


Testing momentumIn early January, stocks registered a Zweig Breath Thrust when Up Volume quickly swung from oversold to overbought. This week, the indicator hit an oversold level for the first time, testing momentum traders’ conviction.Other times that months passed between a thrust and the ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - First Pullback, Weak Sectors, Returning Investors

2019-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this whippy day.Finally, A 3%-erThe S&P 500 is on track to pull back by more than 3% from the highest point it rallied to since the December bottom. That's the first time it's pulled back by this "large" of an amount. That streak of more than 90 days ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - No Cash, Bullish On Bonds, Financials' Breadth

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this month-end, yet-another-buy-on-weakness day.No CashThe latest data from the Investment Company Institute shows that mutual fund managers reduced their cash positions again in March. They're now holding 2.9% of client assets in liquid instruments, ... [...]

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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Flows, Breadth Extremes, Shanghai

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this Friday.Argentinian AngstThe WSJ notes that consumer confidence in Argentina has taken another hit due to political instability. I know next to nothing about the country, but it's at least worth noting that over the past 6 months, consumer ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk

2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Dollar BetsYesterday's report noted the multi-year breakout in the dollar, which has had a tendency to pull back most of the time over the next 2-6 months. The long-term trend has been about flat, so breakouts have had a tendency to be unsustainable ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this potential bearish-engulfing day.Emerging EmergingPretty much every study we've looked at for emerging markets since last fall has been bullish, and those markets continue to plug along. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has now rallied for its 10th ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what is yet another fade of early-morning strength.Mushed MetalOne of the most extreme moves this week has been in palladium, which knocked a quick 15% off its high. It's sometimes suggested as a leading indicator for stocks (some theory about it being an ... [...]

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Close 1-Year Analogs, As Confidence Peaks

2019-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


A year like ‘90Hand-picked price overlays can show some scary comparisons to the past year, like 1937. But the one-year period with the highest correlation since 1928 was 1990, which led to tremendous gains.Of the 17 one-year periods with the highest correlation to the past year, the next few ... [...]

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Waning Consumer Confidence

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


The latest Conference Board survey for March shows that consumer attitudes toward their present conditions has waned. From a multi-year high to an 11-month low, there is some evidence that sentiment has peaked for this cycle.Other times this has happened, the S&P 500 struggled to hold any gains ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this recovery day.Waning ConfidenceToday's release of the Conference Board's latest readings on consumer confidence revealed that attitudes about present conditions are at the lowest point in nearly a year. This is coming on the heels of what had been ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.SlickThe WSJ notes that it's not only stocks enjoying a good start to the year. For oil, it's the best-ever, unless it takes a massive hit today. With a gain through yesterday of more than 25%, it's by far the best YTD return through February since ... [...]

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A Remarkable Run, As Bulls Return And Dow Stocks Are Above Average

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


A remarkable runBoth the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have enjoyed a near-historic run from their Christmas Eve lows. The magnitude of their gains, interrupted by only a few large daily losses, have been matched only a few times.The sample sizes are tiny, but the implications are mostly positive, ... [...]

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Smart Money Buys In As Other Managers Sit Out

2019-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


Smart money piles inAs delayed reports get released, we’re seeing that “smart money” hedgers were busy buying Nasdaq and DJIA futures in January. This is unusual since the market was rising, and it’s even more unusual how aggressive they were.When they went net long those contracts since the ... [...]

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Possible Earnings Contraction; Mom And Pop Roar Back; Dollar Momentum

2019-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings contractionCompanies in the S&P 500 have shown 10 quarters of year-over-year growth in operating earnings, but that streak is in danger of ending. Estimates for this quarter continue to come down.If that’s going to be the case, then traders start to anticipate slower growth, and returns ... [...]

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AAII Stock - Cash Allocation Back To An Extreme

2019-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


According to the latest survey results from AAII, they piled back in during January’s large rebound. They upped the allocation to stocks to over 71% of their portfolio, at the expense of their cash cushion which plunged to just over 13%.The spread between their stock and cash allocations is just ... [...]

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Record Outflow As Mom-And-Pop Sit On The Sidelines

2019-02-04 | Jason Goepfert


Record flowComprehensive data on mutual fund flows confirm that the massive loss in December for equity funds was the largest on record, dating back 35 years. As a percentage of assets, it was exceeded only by July 2002 and October 2008 in recent history.Money market funds saw huge inflows, but ... [...]

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Emerging Markets Breakout; Fidelity Managers Beat Cash; Baltic Dry Collapse

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Breaking outEmerging markets have closed above their 200-day average for the first time since last spring, a streak of nearly 9 months. That’s one of the longer streaks in 30 years.Other times an emerging markets index ended long streaks below its ... [...]

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Last-Hour Binge Buying; Shutdown Ends; Consumers' Flagging Expectations

2019-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy endingOver the past month, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 0.3% on average during the last hour of trading, one of its largest-ever clusters of gains.Not only has it been aggressive, it has been consistent. As noted by the fine folks at ... [...]

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Disappointed Economists; A Weak Leading Index

2019-01-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.DisappointedConcerns about an economic or earnings recession have skyrocketed over the last couple of months, and disappointing economic reports worldwide are not helping. Economic surprise indexes across the world are all below zero, and the most ... [...]

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Earnings Recession; Investors Reduce Exposure; Record Outflows

2019-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Recession talkConcerns are rising about a recession. Even if we don’t see an economic one, we may be in store for an earnings recession.The data is not showing that as likely, but even if it happens, it does not necessarily mean that stock prices ... [...]

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Newsletters Throw In The Towel; Record Reversals

2019-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Throwing in the towelOver the past decade, it has taken some severe moves in stocks, in a very short amount of time, to shake optimism among newsletter writers. That’s what happened now, with a near-record drop in sentiment. For the first time in ... [...]

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Newsletters Are Shorting; Breadth Swings; No Highs; Big Outflow; Buying Stampede

2018-12-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get shortyWhile individual investors in the AAII survey became pessimistic a week ago, this week there were more than 50% bears in the survey for the first time in 5 years. That has made a different in other surveys, too. According to one measure ... [...]

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No Flight To Safety In Bonds; Investors Have Turned Pessimistic

2018-11-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bond market movesBonds sold off along with stocks during the last two big pullbacks this year, showing no flight to safety. That is unlike 2016 when bonds rose as stocks declined.Historically, when bonds declined along with stocks during a selloff, ... [...]

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Unshakable Confidence; Immense Last-Hour Selling Pressure

2018-10-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.UnshakableConsumer Confidence rose in October despite a bad month for stocks. The S&P dropped more than 5%, and not only did Confidence hit more than a 1-year high, it’s well over 100. Forward returns here were decent in the medium- to long-term, ... [...]

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Consumers Are Comfortable As Gold Drops Amid Smart Money Big Short

2018-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Signs of intense comfortAnother survey is showing a high level of confidence among U.S. consumers. The Conference Board, University of Michigan and Bloomberg surveys are now all near multi-decade highs. When the two oldest are taken together, the ... [...]

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Bulls Double Bears Even As Lumber Tumbles

2018-09-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bulls continue to double bearsBulls among newsletter writers in the Investor’s Intelligence survey are more than twice as numerous as bears. This is the 98th straight week, by far the longest ever, showing a historic faith in the uptrend. The ... [...]

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Consumers Can't Lose As Oil Ratchets Up New Highs

2018-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.That can’t-lose feelingConsumers in the U.S. have almost never felt as ebullient as they do now. They are comfortable and confident to a degree rarely, if ever, seen before. The few times in 50 years they’ve been as confident according to the ... [...]

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Comfort Nears Record High As ETF Inflows Surge

2018-09-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A comfortable timeConsumers are about as comfortable as they’ve been at any time in 30 years according to the latest survey from Bloomberg. Other periods of exceptionally high comfort led to trouble in stocks, but years later, while gold did ... [...]

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Managers Favor U.S. As Market Sees Historic Split

2018-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.There’s no place like homeFund managers are showing a multi-year preference for U.S. stocks. A popular survey from BAML shows that managers are heavily overweight the U.S. versus both emerging market and eurozone stocks. But that hasn’t necessarily ... [...]

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Small Starts To Struggle As Confidence Leads To Dollar Peaks

2018-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small hasn’t been so beautifulWhile leading year-to-date, small-caps have been lagging the S&P over the past few months. The ratio of the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 is very close to falling to a multi-month low, a worse sign for small-caps than ... [...]

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A "Small" Split As Investors Pull Back

2018-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A “small” splitThe Russell 2000 is near its highs, but relatively few of its stocks are trading above their moving averages. There has also been an uptick in its stocks hitting multi-month lows.The only other times this has happened to this degree ... [...]

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Small Business Has Never Been Better As Hong Kong Slides Into A Bear

2018-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Never betterSmall business owner optimism is at record highs, surpassing two other periods since 1979.Despite worries about labor, owners have exceptionally high confidence about future conditions. It is backward-looking for stocks, though, and ... [...]

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Bulls Say They're Hesitant While Active Managers Jump In

2018-08-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Maybe bulls are just superstitiousEven though investors are buying, they won’t say they’re bullish in sentiment surveys. The AIM Model, which monitors an array of longstanding surveys, has been below 50% for 6 months, one of the longest streaks ... [...]

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Hedge Funds Exposed To Dollar While Consumers' Optimism Time-Shifts

2018-08-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Riding the buckHedge funds have the largest exposure to the dollar in four years. Their returns over the past month have been highly correlated to moves in the buck. They also have a near-record inverse correlation to gold, which has preceded ... [...]

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Russell's Band Bounce And Lack Of German Confidence

2018-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Russell band bounceThe small-cap Russell 2000 has bounced from its lower Bollinger Band to its upper in just a week’s time.That kind of rebound has preceded impressive gains over the next six months.German vote of no confidenceA German economic ... [...]

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Economic Surprises Turn Negative, So Do Investors And Gold

2018-06-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A slip in surprisesU.S. economic surprises have ended their longest-ever positive streak, after being positive since last September.The ends of other long positive streaks led to mixed returns in stocks, excellent ones in bonds, and poor in ... [...]

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Corporate Bonds Diverge As Small Businesses See Record Optimism

2018-06-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bond market battleThe spread on high-yield bonds has sunk to a multi-year low, while investment-grades are at a year high. That is exceptionally unusual, as corporate spreads typically move more or less together.It seems like it should be a good ... [...]

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ETF Investors Stay Home As Mom & Pop Go Back To Stocks

2018-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors stay homeFlows into domestic ETFs have swamped that of overseas funds over the past 4 weeks.The other times it happened to this degree, world stocks started to outperform the S&P.Mom & pop ignore safetyIndividual investors are showing ... [...]

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New Dollar Trend As Newsletters Keep Selling

2018-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A new day for the dollarThe U.S. dollar has closed above its long-term average for the first time in a year. Other times it ended a long streak in a downtrend, it continued to rally in the shorter-term.Its attempts at a new trend led to horrid ... [...]

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Consumers Turn Bearish As Dow, Staples Decline

2018-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Consumers are buying…just not stocksThe latest Consumer Confidence survey shows more consumers expect stocks to decline than rally. That’s the first time since the November 2016 election that the U.S. consumer has been bearish on stocks.Other times ... [...]

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Newsletter Optimism Ebbs As Gaps Pile Up

2018-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ebbing optimismNewsletter writers have continued to pull back their stock market expectations. The Investor’s Intelligence Bull Ratio is now below 70% for the first time in more than six months.Other times a long streak of optimism ended, stocks ... [...]

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Gold Miners Lag As Investment Managers Sell

2018-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Miners’ minor monthsGold mining stocks have underperformed gold prices by more than 10% over the past couple of months.Due to their higher volatility, this is considered a negative for gold prices going forward. There is some modest truth to this, ... [...]

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Corporate Bonds Struggle As Newsletter Writers Retrench

2018-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Corporate bond strugglesOver the past 30 days, investment-grade corporate bonds have had some of the worst breadth readings in 13 years. Fewer than 42% of bonds advanced, and more than 12% of them hit 52-week lows on average.Forward returns after ... [...]

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Big Stock Swings As Consumers Retrench

2018-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Big swinging ticksThe past four days have seen stocks swing with heavy positive and negative ticks, gyrating near a multi-month low. We haven’t seen that since 2011, and normally only in bear markets. Since 1950, such persistent wild swings have ... [...]

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Technology Beats Utilities As Confidence Rises

2018-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Tech ramps against staid UtilitiesThe ratio of Tech to Utes has soared in the past couple of years, similar to the 2000 bubble years. It’s not quite that extreme, though, and there were other periods when investors greatly favored the riskier ... [...]

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Neutral Investors, With Soaring Small-Caps And Dow Theory Warning

2018-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mom and pop just shrugIndividual investors have become neutral to one of the most extreme degrees in the past 15 years.That’s usually a good sign in a bull market, especially longer-term. It’s also been a good sign that there are more bears than ... [...]

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Breadth Gets Oversold As Consumer Confidence Rises

2018-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Oversold alreadyAt least one primary breadth indicator is showing that recent selling pressure is extreme. It’s rare to see the McClellan Oscillator this stretched to the downside just a few days after an all-time high in the S&P.Similar readings ... [...]

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Burst Of New Highs As Optimism Hits 30-Year High

2018-01-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A rare burst of new highsMost of the major indexes and sectors had more than 25% of their stocks hit a 52-week high on Tuesday. Only Staples and Utilities saw fewer than 10% of their stocks hit a new high. On average across indexes and sectors, 27% ... [...]

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Gap Up While Bears Scatter And New Highs Jump

2018-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


For those who don’t follow the premium Twitter account, which you have access to if you’re receiving this message, following are some of the studies and indicators that were posted today. If you’d like to follow the Twitter account, please request to follow @SenTrader_Prem on Twitter then send ... [...]

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A Historic Streak As Investors Wade In

2018-01-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A(nother) historic streakAfter setting so many different records last year, 2018 is on track to score even more. Among them, the major indexes haven’t been more than 5% from a 52-week high for nearly 400 days (more than 450 days if we exclude a ... [...]

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Happy New Year As Investors Go All In

2018-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy New YearThe S&P has enjoyed a record start to the year, with back-to-back gains and new highs. It has never before managed to climb more than 0.5% with 52-week highs on the first two sessions. Similar years saw pullbacks, with the short-term ... [...]

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Record Exposure As Small-Caps Drop And Commodities Suffer

2017-12-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Record exposureActive investment managers saw a record jump to record exposure and record aggressiveness toward stocks this week.There is a tendency to think this is automatically a contrary sign, but it has not been a consistent signal in the ... [...]

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Record Small Business Optimism As Investors Buy The Dip

2017-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Near-record optimism (again)Small business owners are showing nearly the highest optimism readings in 45 years, confirming other surveys that are showing somewhere between multi-year to multi-decade extremes in optimism.High levels in the past led ... [...]

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Bullish Mom And Pop And Options Traders

2017-12-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Shades of 2000 for mom and popIndividual investors haven’t had this small of a cash cushion since 2000. In November, their cash holdings dropped below the prior recent lows in 2015 and August of this year.At the same time, they are heavily ... [...]

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Bulls Reach 30-Year Highs On Futures Gap

2017-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


With relief about President Trump's speech last night (or whatever other excuse you'd like to insert), stock futures are once again pushing to new all-time highs. And while there are some holdouts, many sentiment measures are also pushing multi-year or multi-decade records.The latest release of ... [...]

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Investment Managers Leveraged Long And Confident

2016-07-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is just a quick note to point out an extreme in the just-released survey of active investment managers by NAAIM. The average manager is now 101% long, meaning they have leveraged their portfolios on the long side in stocks.They are also confident. We've written about their confidence level ... [...]

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AAII Survey Shows Big Jump In Bulls

2016-06-02 | Jason Goepfert


The latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors showed the largest increase in bullish opinion in years, following on the survey from Investor's Intelligence discussed in last night's report.The percentage of bulls going from below 20 (it was 18 last week) to 30 or above ... [...]

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A 19-Year Low In Stock Holdings?

2016-04-21 | Jason Goepfert


Americans are holding the fewest stocks in 19 years. So says a new Reuters poll, getting quite a bit of attention today.But... It's a survey. People often do one thing and say another. Many don't even know that they own stocks. It might be misleading. The survey included about 1,000 respondents ... [...]

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Opening Gap Odds As Investor Optimism Doubles

2016-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


Buyers are coming in hard this morning, ostensibly due to further measures announced by the ECB. Whatever the reason, futures are indicated to open more than 0.75% higher than Wednesday's close, which would be a two-month high.Using the S&P 500 fund, SPY, there have been 64 times it has shown ... [...]

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Survey Pessimism Pushes AIM Model To Low Level

2016-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


With the latest survey results from the American Association of Individual Investors, most of the sentiment surveys we follow are showing extremely low levels of optimism.As noted in last night's Report, the percentage of bears in some of them are not at "panic" levels, so there's that. It's ... [...]

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Individual Investors Flee

2016-01-14 | Jason Goepfert


One of the data points that will likely get some attention today is a collapse in bullishness among the individual investors who participate in a weekly sentiment survey published by the American Association of Individual Investors.For the results included through Wednesday, only 18% of ... [...]

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