Posts tagged as Stocks and Sectors


Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism

2019-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


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USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad)

2019-10-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Leading the worldMost of the ways the U.S. has been surprising the world have not necessarily been the good kind. When it comes to economic reports, though, ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - stocks vs. politics, nonstop utilities surge, global money supply, Bitcoin's crash

2019-09-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Stocks and the dollar are "joined at the pip"

2019-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Joined at the pipThere usually isn’t much of a correlation between movement in stocks and the dollar. As much as investors want to assign a narrative linking ...

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Thursday Color - Gold flow and open interest, bond flow, VIX call buying, Hang Seng rollover

2019-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday color - Utility surge impact on stocks/gold, breadth rollover, skittish signs, Egypt

2019-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - South Korea PPI, TLT Optix, McClellan Oscillator, Utilities Optix

2019-09-25 | Troy Bombardia


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Monday color - Nifty rebound, a rocky week, small traders

2019-09-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Investors Ease In As FedEx Crashes

2019-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Easing back inIndividual investors are easing back into stocks. The latest AAII survey shows that the Bull Ratio has cycled from extreme pessimism to modest ...

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What I'm looking at - Housing Starts, CFO's pessimism, ZEW, FedEx crash

2019-09-19 | Troy Bombardia


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A Big Jump In Big Money Bulls

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big money gets bullishThe latest survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that polls large money managers with nearly $700 billion under management showed a ...

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Wednesday Color - FOMC Bias, Emerging Recovery, Japan, Fund Flow

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Energy sector after oil's 1st 4 s.d. rise in > 6 months during a down market

2019-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


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What's Better Than Bonds?

2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Beautiful breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line for most of the major indexes are at or near all-time highs. Same for every one of the major S&P 500 ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Breakaway Gaps, Japan Jumps, Small-Caps Pop, Dollar

2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.BreakawayOne of the signs that this recovery is a bit different from some of the other attempts is that there have been three times now when the S&P 500 futures gapped up with a large gain at the open, and sellers were not interested enough to close ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - OECD, small caps, various breadth indicators

2019-09-11 | Troy Bombardia


With the stock market near an all-time high, here's what I'm looking at:OECD Composite Leading IndicatorAs popular bear David Rosenberg pointed out, the OECD's Leading Indicator (USA) has fallen for the 15th consecutive month. This often occurred in the middle of a recession, which is why the ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Russell vs Nasdaq, Sector Divvies, Bond Whipsaw, Jumps Above BBands

2019-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a quiet day.DivergentWe've looked a couple of times at the remarkable shift in momentum between winners and losers, growth and value over the last couple of days. While it's tempting to read a broader shift into it, sharp, severe ones like this have happened ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

2019-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today as momentum stocks once again fare poorly.Value's BackThe trash bin is overflowing with proclamations that finally value stocks are about to have their moment in the sun. They've lagged growth stocks so badly, and for so long, that sentiment seems ... [...]

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Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a so-far quiet start to the week.Returning Risk AppetiteOver the past few weeks, we've gone over many signs that investors are seriously anxious. To an extreme and surprising degree, given that stocks were holding up relatively well.Now we're starting to see ... [...]

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Why So Defensive?

2019-09-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.High on defensivesThe most defensive sectors of the market, consumer staples and utilities, saw a jump in the number of stocks rising to 52-week highs.This ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, semiconductors, breakout, NAAIM, copper reversal?

2019-09-05 | Troy Bombardia


The S&P has finally broken out from its month-long range. Here's what I'm looking at.Citigroup Economic Surprise IndexThe Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has turned positive after being negative for 143 consecutive days. This was an extremely long streak, and economic data is now starting to ... [...]

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A Trade-Related Gap

2019-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


Stock futures are jumping this morning, with another trade-related headline. Per the WSJ:That has sent S&P 500 futures more than 0.75% above yesterday's close. It's often questionable to assign movements in the futures to a single issue, but this one seems pretty clear.Traders have been jerked ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Recession Probability Model, emerging markets, Treasury yields, breadth, Consumer Confidence

2019-09-04 | Troy Bombardia


The S&P has rallied back to the top of this month-long range. Here's what I'm looking at.NY Fed Recession Probability ModelWith the yield curve pushing deeper into inversion territory, the "probability of a recession" from various popular recession models based on yield curves continues to ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper

2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks bounce back after a lessening of geopolitical tension, for the moment at least.Sad StreetThe WSJ notes that expected forward earnings for the S&P 500 is expected to show barely any growth in the quarters ahead according to Wall Street analysts. That's ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - ISM PMI, 60/40 portfolio, XLU, gold:silver ratio

2019-09-04 | Troy Bombardia


The S&P 500 remains stuck in the 2930-2940 range. Here's what I'm looking at.ISM manufacturing PMIAs Jason noted yesterday, the widely followed ISM manufacturing PMI has fallen below 50. This means that it will be a bearish factor for the Macro Index starting on October 1. Both the WSJ and ... [...]

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


A Daily Report won't be published today, so we're sending this Bulletin. This is what a typical premium note would contain. I post a note during most trading days, and Troy does as well after U.S. hours.We've also unlocked all other premium posts from this week:Friday - Switching from stocks to ... [...]

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Consumers Vs. Investors As Silver Pops

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers vs. investorsThe latest Consumer Confidence reading shows that U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate an extremely positive outlook on their ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks gyrate ahead of what is likely to be an exodus of traders from their screens over the next couple of sessions.Stocks Down, Bonds UpAugust has been a bad month for stocks and wonderful one for bonds, leading to one of the widest divergences between them ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Social Pessimism, Big Drops, Brazil Breadth, Ag Bears

2019-08-27 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we head into what is likely going to be one of the slowest-moving periods of the year.Socially AwkwardDepending on who you ask and who you follow, Twitter is either an amazing resource to find real-time ideas and collaboration among some of the smartest ... [...]

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Monday Color - A Month Of Swings, Economic Uncertainty, Sectors, Scramble For Protection

2019-08-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks swing wildly from their weekend lows.Quite A MonthWe seem to be on track for another whipsaw, as markets try to recover from conflicting messages over the weekend, following a rocky end to the week.Price patterns probably mean less now than they ever ... [...]

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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

2019-08-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Overseas Rebound, Sector Recoveries, HY vs IG Spreads, VIX Drop

2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks gyrate in what is likely going to be a pattern of low (and lower) volume in the days ahead.Overseas ReboundIn the Hang Seng index of Hong Kong stocks, 90% of them have jumped enough to trade above the 10-day averages. That has preceded some short-term ... [...]

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Financials As A Sick Canary

2019-08-16 | Jason Goepfert


Financial correctionLess than three weeks ago, financial stocks within the S&P 500 were within spitting distance of a fresh 52-week high. Now they’re mired in a correction, having pulled back more than 10% from their high.That’s a quick turnaround, which always worries investors. This was not a ... [...]

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Friday Color - Risk Off, Options Anxiety, Many Lows, Big MOVE, Sector Extremes

2019-08-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as bulls try to enjoy a summer Friday.AnxiousSigns of nervousness are everywhere. Over the past couple of days, we've seen a spike in pessimistic extremes, so there's no shortage of examples. Troy pointed out several aggregate sentiment gauges (Dumb Money, CNN ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Turmoil, Double Losses, Recession Talk, Financials, Sectors

2019-08-15 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far during this tentative recovery attempt.Fear MongeringPerhaps there is no greater sign of the anxiety among investors than when the television channel most geared toward unsophisticated investors runs a special report highlighting the volatility.Red ... [...]

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S&P 500 after financials fall 10% from high w/in 3 weeks

2019-08-15 | Jason Goepfert


Financials have seen worse bouts of selling pressure in recent years than they suffered lately, but not by much. And it’s causing concern, because only a few weeks ago the sector was a hair’s breadth from a new high, and any time these stocks suffer large losses, memories of 2008 rear their ugly ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gamma, Dislocations, Merval & Hang Seng, Emerging Fund Outflow, Bond Optix

2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we get some relief from the daily threat of trade dispute escalations. We'll have to see if this holds into the close and triggers another big up thrust day from the recent low.New IndicatorsYou can now view the HiLo Logic Index for both the NYSE and ... [...]

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Monday Color - 8 Straight 1%-ers, Large Calls, Corrections, Gold Buyers, Emerging Momentum

2019-08-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another tough start to a week.Lots Of WigglesThe Financial Times notes that this has been a particularly jarring time for traders, with now 8 straight sessions undergoing at least a 1% intraday change in the S&P 500. Historically, this is a long streak but ... [...]

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The Stock-Bond Relationship Is Out Of Whack

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


Strained relationshipThe drop in stocks over the past week didn’t happen in isolation, as traders fled to the perceived safety of the bond market. That moved the Stock/Bond Ratio to an extreme level, even while the S&P remains in a generally positive environment.This has typically resolved in ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders try to put Monday's carnage behind them.Island TimeIt's still early, of course, but stocks are making a valiant attempt to carve out an "island" bottom. This happens when traders panic and force an unfilled gap to the downside (Monday in our current ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Bulls Gone, Put Volume, Energy Drop, Asian Axiety

2019-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another volatile morning.Buy The DipIt's still awfully early, but SPY is on track to recover at least 1.25% from its intraday low on back-to-back sessions, after having dropped to at least a one-month low.Since the end of the financial crisis, that has ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Opening Volatility, New Lows, Sector Extremes, Big Outflows

2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders push the indexes into rebound mode.BoingFutures are ramping higher this morning after an after-close plunge, triggering all kinds of overnight volatility. During a generally rising market, this would be the largest opening rebound after a big down day ... [...]

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Monday Color - Gaps, Volatility Jump, Options Buying, Warning Cluster, Hong Kong

2019-08-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders gear up for a bout of Monday morning volatility.SplatTraders get to start the new week staring at large losses in the futures. That follows a week that was pretty much straight down, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the past 5 sessions.We haven't ... [...]

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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash

2019-07-25 | Jason Goepfert


NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico

2019-07-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Leaking AssetsThe major indexes (excepting the Russell 2000) have risen toward fresh highs over the past week, but ETF traders don't seem to care. Assets in SPY, DIA, and QQQ have all declined over the past 5 sessions.Shares outstanding in all 3 ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

2019-07-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on another day that's finding buyers not sticking around.Gold HedgeBloomberg notes that per Goldman Sachs, investors may be better off hedging against uncertainty with the yen than with gold. That's based on how pricey each of them are according to the ... [...]

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Friday Color - Gold Momentum, Internal Warnings, Mexico

2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this summer Friday that's having some issues trying to hold any buying interest.UnstoppableGold reacted very well to the newly renewed projections of a larger rate cut at the next Fed meeting, breaking out again to another new high. So far, it has managed to ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Fading 'Mo, Energy Stock Drop, Titanic Signal, Cotton, Euro Junk

2019-07-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what's starting out to be a minor hangover from yesterday's pressure.Breadth ReviewAcross sectors and indexes, breadth underlying the recent rally has been ebbing, and most of the McClellan Oscillators we track are now below zero.This means that the ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Dow Stocks, Dumb Money, Gamma, Microsoft Expectations, Germany

2019-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as some of the negatives that have piled up start to take some effect.Sector BreadthIndustrial stocks have been chugging higher, and it has been enough that nearly every Dow Industrial stock is trading above their 50-day moving average. This is the best out of ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to position themselves ahead of a deluge of earnings.Earnings ParadeMuch is being made of the potential slowdown in earnings as companies begin to report in earnest over the next couple of weeks. We've seen in years past that "earnings ... [...]

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Monday Color - Discretionary Streak, Fund Exposure, Small Trader Enthusiasm, Earnings Season

2019-07-15 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a slow that, with some hints that buyers have reached exhaustion.On A RollThe WSJ notes that the consumer discretionary sector has risen for 12 straight days, one of its longest streaks ever. Indeed.Momentum doesn't die easily, and that was the case after ... [...]

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Friday Color - Yield Curve, Small Caps, XLU vs XLE, Bonds, Brazil

2019-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what looks to be another small-range attempt at new highs.SteeperOne of my family's great jokes is that although I'm 6'7", I don't like heights. It's a never-ending source of entertainment for them - tall guy who's afraid of heights, haha. My knees get weak, ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Dovish Fed, Sector Extremes, Round #, Value Line Lag, Twitter Bulls

2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what so far is looking like a very narrow-range day.When Doves FlyAccording to a note from Nordea Markets, the Fed has become the most dovish since 2009. This is based on the language the Fed uses in statements to the public, with a "dovish" bent meaning they ... [...]

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Tech Has Led - What That Should Mean For The Summer

2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


Similar sector first halvesThe S&P 500 has enjoyed great gains through the first half of the year, as have most of its sectors. Looking at other years when the S&P gained at least 10% through June that had the most similar returns among sectors, the next couple of months tended to be ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - High Yield Rally, Sector Breadth, Recession Risk, Yield Drop

2019-07-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another day showing a recovery from early weakness.High Times For JunkOver the past couple of weeks, the high-yield (junk) bond market has enjoyed one of its best stretches in at least 14 years. Nearly 30% of the 2,000+ bonds tracked by the Nasdaq hit ... [...]

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This Has Only Happened Twice In 40 Years

2019-07-09 | Jason Goepfert


High confidenceDumb Money Confidence has recovered from its dip below neutral territory in May. Now above 77%, it’s to a level that has preceded weak annualized returns in stocks.As a signal, the first reading above this level after a dip below 50% has led to mostly weak short- and medium-term ... [...]

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Monday Color - Short-Term Optimism, Funds Vs Options, Lagging Small Caps And Surprises, Bulls Return, Bonds

2019-07-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets suffer their usual post-holiday slide.Short-Term ExtremesWhile stocks didn't surge last week, they did hold their gains. And whoever was still trading over a holiday week was pretty optimistic it was going to continue.The shortest-term indicators we ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to drift away ahead of what is likely to be an extended holiday weekend.Tech RecoveryThe WSJ notes that the S&P 500's tech components have reached a new high for the first time in months, erasing the 10% correction from May.This is one of the ... [...]

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After This Happened, Stocks Fell 15%

2019-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


A trio of laggardsEven though the S&P 500 recently hit a fresh all-time high, several sectors have been trailing. Small-cap stocks, transports, and banks have all hit new 52-week lows relative to the S&P.This is atypical behavior, with a tendency to lead to selling pressure. When two of the ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Less Confident, Relative Lows, Bond Optimism, Gold Surge

2019-06-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a mostly weak day. Markets are likely going to be held to the latest posturings and headlines ahead of and during the upcoming G-20 meeting.Less ConfidentThe latest Consumer Confidence survey came in way below economists' expectations, which won't help the ... [...]

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets meander on a post-breakout summer Friday.Sell Stocks, Buy BondsThat seems to be the mantra among fund investors, anyway. On Thursday, SPY, HYG, and LQD all hit new highs. Yet investors pulled more than $4 billion from SPY, and added nearly $2 billion ... [...]

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350 Days To Nowhere, And Why Lagging Energy Isn't A Problem

2019-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


350 days to nowhereThe Dow Industrials Average is trying to break out for the third time. It hasn’t gone anywhere since late January 2018, which was 350 days ago. It saw minimal upside and substantial downside since then.If we go back to 1900, there have been a handful of times it went this long ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Morning Gap, Sector Breadth, Gold Breakout

2019-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders ramp up stocks prior to the open.Post-Meeting GapIn apparent reaction to yesterday's FOMC decision and statement, traders are bidding up the futures. This is quite a change from a few weeks ago when two out of every three days opened with a gap ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Everything Rallies, Bond Flow and Vol, Within 1%, Energy, France

2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Everything RalliesTuesday provided some interesting cross-currents, allowing assets to rise that normally provide some balance to each other. It was a bad day to be short pretty much anything - stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Fund Manager Panic, New Model, OEX, UAE, Miners

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks jump on the latest hopeful headlines.Fund Manager PanicWe've already seen evidence that individuals have reached near-panic conditions over the past few weeks. They took out a massive number of hedges, they've said they're near a record level of ... [...]

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Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen

2019-06-14 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a choppy Friday.Bond FlowOver the past 8 sessions, corporate bond ETFs LQD, HYG, and JNK have seen steady inflows. To a near-record degree, in fact. That happened in the midst of a nice run in January of this year, with no ill effect. But it also ... [...]

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A Tale Of 2 Sectors

2019-06-14 | Jason Goepfert


A tale of two sectorsMost utility stocks have been rising over the past 3 weeks and are trading above their 50-day averages. Few energy stocks can boast the same.When there has been this wide of a divergence between those two sectors, the broader market had a strong tendency to rise with only ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.ReversalsYesterday I made a brief mention of the reversal pattern over the past two days, where SPY hit its highest level in a month intraday but reversed to close in the bottom third of its range both days.For those wanting more detail, here are ... [...]

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Defensive Stocks Dominate The New High List - Does It Matter?

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


A defensive new high listAcross the equity market, securities at a 52-week high have expanded. Same goes for companies within the S&P 500. And within that index, it’s been more of the defensive sectors that have seen the best participation.While that suggests a potentially worrisome risk-off ... [...]

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Small Traders Buy Record Hedges Even As Financials Surge

2019-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


Financial recoveryFor the first time since early 2018, more than a quarter of financial stocks within the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high.This kind of a surge has been good for the sector, with gains over the next year every time.In 2000, this jump in new highs among financial stocks led to a 4% ... [...]

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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight

2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.High-LightOne of the most notable developments of the rally to end last week was the expanding number of securities that erased their May pullbacks. Nearly 10% of issues on the NYSE reached a 52-week high on Friday, the most since January ... [...]

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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

2019-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


Like Tuesday, I won't be publishing a Daily Report, but will instead send this as a Bulletin. This is typically what's sent out around midday as a Premium Note - it's a look at my notebook of things I'm watching throughout the day, some of which then make it into the Reports.The summary portions ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico

2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.StretchedThe massive move in bonds continues to get a lot of attention, and for good reason. We saw the other day that it's relatively unusual to see a new high in bonds (low in yields) with an explosion in volatility, and that has been a good sign ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far this morning. When there's a large or notable gap I prefer to get these out early, even if today's looks to be fading as we head into the open.GappyStock futures are on track to show a relatively large positive gap up this morning as traders show some ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Bond Volatility And Optimism, Gold, Flows, Tech Breadth

2019-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


Since we won't be publishing a Daily Report today, we're going to send this Premium Note to all members.This is similar to what's published most days around midday. It's essentially my notebook of things I'm looking at during the day, some of which make it into the Daily Report. There tends to ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another morning with a largish negative gap open.GapStocks are showing another large negative gap this morning, adding to what has been a near-record cluster of anxious openings. Forgetting the fact that this comes on the heels of that cluster, we can see ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.5 StraightWe saw at the end of last week that the Dow Industrials had just suffered its 5th straight negative week, a rarely-seen bout of selling pressure given the index is so near its high.It's not the only index. The Shanghai Composite also ... [...]

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5 Weeks Of Losses - What's Next?

2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


Dow dingedThe Dow Industrials have lost ground for five straight weeks, its 2nd-worst stretch since the financial crisis and among its worst since 1900.It’s relatively unusual to see such a string of losses while relatively close to a 52-week high, and over the past 40 years that has led to ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Dow's 5th Loss, Energy Breadth, Utes, Social Negatives

2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest approaching a long holiday weekend and buyers seemingly anxious to hold.LosingIf the Dow continues to slide and closes out its 5th-straight week with a loss, it will be the first time in 40 years it's lost so consistently while still hovering within 5% of its ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Panic, Few Bulls, Asian Slide

2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this increasingly ugly-looking day.More GapsThe anxiety surrounding trade worries is the reason most commonly given to traders' overnight anxiety. Whatever the reason, there is no question that they don't want to hang around for the opening of regular ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

2019-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Momentum ShiftMarketwatch notes that there has been a long-term momentum shift in stocks that has had an unerring ability to lead to higher prices. This last happened in 2016, according to a popular technical indicator.If ... [...]

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This Has Happened To Tech Only Twice Before

2019-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


From first to worstStocks have lost one of their biggest drivers. Tech stocks have powered much of the rally through April, and then fell hard. The sector was leading the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, and then fell to the worst among them over the past few weeks.That does not happen often, and ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shorts, Emerging Mkts, Sector Extremes

2019-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Not Too ShortOne of the hopeful charts bouncing around at the moment is the rising level of short interest in the largest ETF in the world. Looks like traders are betting on a big fall in SPY, which doesn't usually happen when they're expecting it. ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Gaps Again, Sector Divvies, Flight To Safety

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another weak day so far.More PanicYet another gap down open this morning, as the weeks-long pattern of pre-market panic continues. We've already looked at this a few times, but there's perhaps a better way to consider this.The gaps we've been seeing at ... [...]

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Are You Panicking Like Everyone Else?

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


Panic-level sellingWe’ve already touched on the persistent negative gaps traders have faced most mornings over the last couple of weeks. It’s worth noting again, because the gaps are now on par with panic-level conditions over the past 35 years.Other than 2008, future returns were excellent. ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Pre-Market Fear, Failures, Overseas Extremes, Momentum Drops

2019-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this edgy Friday.Pre-Market FearThe uncertainty surrounding the trade posturing has triggered quite a bit of nervousness ahead of regular trading hours. By 8:30am EST, futures have shown relatively large losses each of the past six days. During the ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Vol Surge, Dow Drops, Sector Extremes

2019-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this meandering day.Vol SurgeThere are no shortage of measures which capture the big move on Tuesday. Perhaps because of the headline-driven nature of the decline, historical comparisons are less appropriate, but that seems to be the case ever time. ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - Overseas Carnage, Sweet Sugar

2019-05-07 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far this morning.We saw last week that selling impulses similar to what triggered then have tended to occur near major peaks in the Shanghai Composite. While there are some long-term positives associated with the kind of momentum move that index enjoyed off ... [...]

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4 Energetic Extremes

2019-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


Energy extremesThe selling pressure earlier this week in the energy sector triggered several shorter-term extremes in breadth. Most of those stocks fell to their lowest in a month, below their volatility bands. Few held above their short-term moving averages.When the sector had rebounded more ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Momentum Market, Energy Washout, Russell Breakout

2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another positive Friday. This marks the S&P's 14th rally out of 16 Fridays since the beginning of the year.Momentum MarketHere's a question I got the other day, reflecting some version that's been asked several times essentially asking the same thing:So ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch

2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders await the latest guidance from the Fed.Breadth ReviewUtilities have picked up again. Most of the breadth measures are meandering around neutral or slightly stretch. The big move yesterday, though, pushed nearly 60% of those stocks outside of their ... [...]

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A Shocking Volatility Twist With Recovering Financials

2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


Volatility twistOver the past month, volatility in big tech stocks has been lower than volatility in stocks specifically chosen because of their staid nature, according to Bloomberg data. Historical volatility on the Nasdaq 100 fell below that of the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, a rare twist ... [...]

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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Flows, Breadth Extremes, Shanghai

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this Friday.Argentinian AngstThe WSJ notes that consumer confidence in Argentina has taken another hit due to political instability. I know next to nothing about the country, but it's at least worth noting that over the past 6 months, consumer ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Bond Bulls, High-Yield Breadth, Lagging S&P Stocks, Tech Values

2019-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Bond BullsThe rush into long-term Treasury ETFs has been really something. Four of the largest funds have increased their shares outstanding by more than 15% in just the past week. The last couple of times, that coincided with short-term exhaustion ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a curiously strong day.RecoveryIn spite of overwhelmingly optimistic sentiment in some models, buyers continue to persist. For months, the most positive thing about stocks was the price activity (and breadth from December through February), and that ... [...]

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Uh-Oh, Options Speculators Are Back

2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


Sector battleThe ratio between the S&P 500’s technology and health care sectors has swung by an extreme amount. The 50-day rate of change in the ratio between the two has cycled from negative to a 10-year high.Since 1990, other times it swung like this, tech suffered, while health care held up ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Smart Money, Biotech, Options Optimism

2019-04-22 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a quiet Easter Monday session.Smart MoneyLast week, hedgers continued to build up their positions in some of the agricultural contracts. In corn, they went net long by more than 94,000 contracts, the most since 2017. That's more than 5% of open ... [...]

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4 Reasons Why Health Care Could Rebound

2019-04-20 | Jason Goepfert


Health care’s bad weekHealth care stocks have gotten hit, and it’s erased their year-to-date gain, while the S&P 500 has held up. The divergence between the two this far into a year is unusual.Other times health care underperformed by more than 5% through this many sessions into a year, it led ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Health Care, Opex

2019-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this pre-holiday Mueller-fest.DamagedThe carnage in health care stocks over the past few days has generated some interesting readings in the breadth metrics. The move was swift and severe enough that more than 60% of stocks in the sector closed below ... [...]

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Investors Cycle Into Cyclicals, Tech

2019-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


Cyclical reboundCyclical stocks got hit hard late last year, especially relative to defensive stocks. They’ve made an impressive rebound. The rate of change on the ratio of cyclical to defensive stocks has cycled from an extreme low to an extreme high.Over the past 20 years, a cycle like this ... [...]

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Most Confident "Dumb Money" In A Decade

2019-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


Maximum optimismDumb Money Confidence has been climbing steadily for a month, and stocks have so far shrugged off that extreme optimism. Now it has reached its highest level in a decade.Every date that saw this high of a reading in the past 20 years sported a negative return in the S&P 500 at ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Super ConfidentDumb Money Confidence has entered a "super extreme" phase. In the 20 year history of the model, only two distinct time periods can compare - the recoveries from the last two major bear markets. That was a good long-term sign of ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on tax day.April 15Just because.Breadth ReviewThere was another surge in French stocks hitting multi-month highs to end last week, at nearly 50% of CAC components.That has helped to push its long-term breadth momentum to an extreme.In the U.S., the ... [...]

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Wall Street Is Technically Bullish, Fundamentally Bearish

2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


Technically bullish, fundamentally bearishIn recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have been raising price targets on stocks within the S&P 500. At the same time, they’ve been lowering their earnings estimates.Usually, there is a positive correlation between the two. When there is a divergence like ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.GapDumb Money Confidence is holding above an extreme of 80%, and buyers were enthusiastic enough to push a pre-market gap more than 0.5% above the prior close. That's only happened five times before, all of which pulled back during the next week.If ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this potential bearish-engulfing day.Emerging EmergingPretty much every study we've looked at for emerging markets since last fall has been bullish, and those markets continue to plug along. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has now rallied for its 10th ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Mexican MomentumIn Friday's report, we saw that "The MSCI Mexico Index closed above its 200-days for the first time in six months on Friday. Other times it went this long before ending a downtrend, it added to gains over ... [...]

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Tech's Perfect Signal

2019-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


Tech’s fully recoveryOut of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, only one has made a fully recovery from the December decline, and it’s an important one. The information technology group has fully recovered from its decline of more than 24%.Other times it fully recovered a drop of 20% or more within ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on yet another day with buyers stepping in on the smallest downtick.RecoveryAmong the major S&P 500 sectors, the first to entirely erase its decline was information technology, scoring its first new all-time high since last fall. That is a quick ... [...]

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An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

2019-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ... [...]

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Shanghai Rally Bodes Well Long-Term

2019-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


The Shanghai Composite has managed to sustain its initial thrust off the low, and it has broadened out. More than 90% of stocks on the exchange are now trading above their 200-day averages.Historically, a rally of this magnitude, and with this kind of broad participation, has continued ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Gap And Go?The gap up this morning faded a bit right before the open, but SPY still managed to add nearly half a percent before regular trading opened. This comes on the heels of a 100-day high during a major uptrend. That's triggered a few times ... [...]

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Options Traders Bet On Decline As S&P Meets Target And Utes Surge

2019-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


Options bets and strategists’ spreadAs stocks rally, options traders have built up a large position in S&P 500 put options, relative to the number of outstanding calls. It’s the opposite in VIX options, where they have few puts and many calls. Since 2006, this has led to a negative annualized ... [...]

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Surge In New Highs Among Utilities

2019-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


For such a normally staid sector, a lot of utilities have been putting in impressive performances. It has been enough that more than 80% of them recently hit a 52-week high at the same time. That’s among the best readings in nearly 30 years.Across all time frames, utilities struggled to gain any ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.FOMC ReversalStocks are trying to fully reverse any weakness from earlier this week. If SPY closes at a new high for this move, it would be the first time traders pushed it to at least a 100-day high the day following a FOMC meeting since 2014. ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far ahead of the FOMC craziness.Tweeps Loving ChinaSocial sentiment among Twitter users has become very optimistic over the past month. The 20-day average of Social Sentiment on FXI has dropped below 1, meaning that on an average day, there have been more ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.CautiousAccording to the latest monthly BofA fund manager survey, big money managers are still not showing any optimism toward equities as a general asset class, with only a 3% overweight. It has been declining consistently for the past 2 years and ... [...]

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Catching Up

2019-03-11 | Jason Goepfert


I'm taking some time for spring break with our kids, but here are some things that are piquing my interest right now.Nothing has really changed the past few days. We're still seeing mostly mixed equities with the rebound so far today, and a relatively poor risk/reward profile over the ... [...]

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Tepid Fund Flows With Record Exodus From Financials

2019-03-06 | Jason Goepfert


Tepid equity flowThe S&P 500 has jumped more than 12% over the past two months, yet inflows to equity funds continue to be tepid.This is one of the few times that stocks have performed so well over a two-month span, with negative equity flows during the rally. Future returns in the S&P were ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this mixed day.China ShinesChinese stocks continue their march upward, which bodes well for the longer-term. We saw in previous reports how a 20% rise from a low in the Shanghai Composite had led to more long-term gains when buyers continued to press ... [...]

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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ... [...]

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An Industrial-Led Rally As Shanghai Surprises

2019-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


The rally’s workhorsesThe Industrials sector has led all major S&P 500 groups since the December 24 low, while defensive ones like Utilities have lagged.Going back to 1928 and looking at all two-month, 10% rallies from a low, we see that the rallies with the highest sector correlation to our ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.China SurgeYesterday, we looked at a couple of different metrics related to the move in Chinese stocks. With more data becoming available, its importance starts to stand out a little more.Within the approximately 1500 stocks in the Shanghai ... [...]

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No Volatility As Utilities' Breadth Impresses

2019-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


No volatilityVolatility expectations across assets have plunged. The VIX and its related measures for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and bonds is hovering near multi-year or even multi-decade lows.Since 1990, it has been unusual to see the “volatility of everything” collapse at the same time, and it ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-02-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.As noted by Bloomberg, volume in Chinese A-shares spiked on the President Trump's optimistic trade tweets. Unlike most other markets, volume in Chinese shares tends to spike on rallies, not declines. Today's volume was 8 standard deviations above ... [...]

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Jobless Claims Hit 52-Week High As High Beta Shows Relative Struggles

2019-02-15 | Jason Goepfert


Climbing claimsA 4-week average of jobless claims hit a 52-week high this week, triggering an increase in the probability of recession.Other times that claims cycled from a 52-week low to a 52-week high since 1967, there was a headwind for stocks and tailwind for bonds, especially over the next ... [...]

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Extreme Greed As Utilities And Yields Forge Unholy Alliance

2019-02-05 | Jason Goepfert


Extreme greedThe CNN Fear & Greed proxy model has moved further into optimistic territory, now showing Extreme Greed, pushed higher by most of the components in the model.Other times it has become this stretched in a downtrend, future returns were almost exclusively negative. There were 99 days ... [...]

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Emerging Markets Breakout; Fidelity Managers Beat Cash; Baltic Dry Collapse

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Breaking outEmerging markets have closed above their 200-day average for the first time since last spring, a streak of nearly 9 months. That’s one of the longer streaks in 30 years.Other times an emerging markets index ended long streaks below its ... [...]

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Emerging Markets Rise Above 200-Day Average

2019-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time in almost nine months, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has managed to close above its 200-day moving average. While this is a mixed event for most indexes and sectors, for emerging markets it has been a good sign, at least in the short- to medium-term.Over the next month, the ... [...]

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S&P Nears 50% Retracement; Financial Sector's Big Buying Cluster

2019-01-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fibonacci hurdlesThe S&P 500 has erased nearly 50% of its October – December decline.Following a loss of more than 15%, this retracement in only 16 sessions is the 3rd-fastest ever. On average, it took a median of 39 trading days to get to the 50% ... [...]

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No Bank Failures; Battle Of Time Frames For Moving Averages

2019-01-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As good as it can getLast year, there were no bank failures. That sounds like a good thing, and it’s happened only 3 other times in 85 years. A sample size of 3 makes it difficult to consider the precedents, so if we relax the parameters and look ... [...]

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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ... [...]

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Energy Stocks Worst Breadth In 4 Years; Traders Keep Selling The Open

2018-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.At least Financials are worseBreadth in the S&P 500 Energy Sector is the worst in four years. Few of the stocks are above even their shortest-term moving averages, and there has been a spike in the percentage of stocks at a 52-week low.This has, in ... [...]

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Financials' New Lows; Bank Loan Pessimism

2018-12-11 | Jason Goepfert


Among all the carnage over the past week, Financials have been among the hardest hit. Despite the attempted reversal on Monday, many of the stocks in this sector either didn't participate, didn't fully reverse, or sunk so far during the morning that they still hit their lowest level in at least ... [...]

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Discounts On MLP Funds; Wall Street Looks To 2019

2018-12-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Partnership pessimismOne of the better ways to gain exposure to master limited partnerships (MLPs) is through closed-end funds (CEFs), which often swing to premiums or discounts to the value of their underlying holdings based almost purely on ... [...]

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Mexican Stock Collapse; Small Traders Load Up On Puts

2018-11-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Heavy selling south of the borderMexican stocks have dropped 30% from their highs in US dollars and 20% in pesos.This has nothing to do with the politics of the new administration, which admittedly is a big omit. In emerging markets, new ruling ... [...]

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Low Volatility Beats High Beta; Worst-Case Corrections; Bad BID

2018-11-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rush to safetyInvestors have moved into “safe” low-volatility stocks at the expense of “risky” high-beta ones. The ratio between the two just hit a two-year high, which has preceded some trouble for stocks over the shorter-term.Over the ... [...]

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Puts Are Popular; No Sector Funds Are Beating Cash

2018-11-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Puts have become popularSince the market peaked in September, most days have seen at least 10% more put options traded than call options, the largest cluster in three years. Out of a total of 27 days in the sample, the S&P was higher two months ... [...]

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Fear And Loathing In Bonds; Energy Apathy

2018-11-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fear and loathing in junk bondsHigh-yield bonds had a very bad day on Tuesday, with extremely poor breadth and sentiment.On Tuesday alone, nearly half of all high-yield bonds declined on the day, they went from an almost even number of 52-week ... [...]

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Stock Returns After Crude Collapse

2018-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


In the Daily Report on Tuesday, we took a look at several studies showing the historic collapse in crude oil prices. As the drop in that market continues to reverberate, broader financial media is taking the usual fear-laden tack that it will lead to a jump in high-yield bond defaults (which is ... [...]

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Bear Market In Stocks; Small-Cap Stumbles

2018-11-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bear market in stocksWhile the major indexes are far from a 20% decline, many S&P 500 components have declined more. At the depths of the decline in October, more than 40% of the S&P reached bear market territory.That often served as a low point ... [...]

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Stocks, Sectors In Correction; Nasdaq's Bad Day; S&P Negative YTD; Spike In Pessimism

2018-10-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks in correctionThe S&P still hasn’t suffered a correction, if we define it by a 10% decline from a 52-week high. With the severe loss on Wednesday, it has just barely missed the cut. Most of its stocks haven’t been so fortunate, however. With ... [...]

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China Loses 30%, Suffers Bad Day At A Low, World Stocks' Failed Bounce

2018-10-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.China losses exceed 30%The Shanghai Composite is now down 30% from its recent high.That worries some U.S. investors concerned about contagion, but losses this large didn’t usually bleed over.Bad days and new lowsThe Shanghai Composite’s drop of ... [...]

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Waiting For A Breadth Thrust; Chinese Investors' Long Slog

2018-10-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Waiting for a thrustBreadth recent hit a deep oversold reading, now many are looking for an upside “thrust” that signals a return of buying interest.But waiting for a breath thrust hasn’t worked well in bull markets. Future returns were better, and ... [...]

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Quick Change In Character; Smart Money Steps In; Emerging Stocks Rebound

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A quick change in characterThe S&P went from 52-week high to below its 200-day average in only 3 weeks. That ended a streak of more than six months above its 200-day average. Other times it underwent a quick change in character, from a 52-week high ... [...]

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Rate-Sensitive Divergence With Yields As New Lows Climb

2018-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rate-sensitive divergence warningAs yields rise, the Financial sector is badly underperforming Utilities, which is atypical.Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between rates and the ratio of Financials to Utilities. When a ... [...]

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Palladium Rally Not Helping Autos As Warnings Keep Mounting

2018-09-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Autos sink despite a “should be” good signThe S&P 500 Auto sector has sunk to a 52-week low despite strong palladium prices, which are at their highest in months.While that’s usually interpreted as a good sign for the sector, it was not, and mostly ... [...]

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Dow Theory Buy Signal Even As Homebuilders Slip

2018-09-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow theory buy signalBoth the Dow Industrials and Transports have reached new highs. This is the first new high in the Industrials in months, following the previous breakout from Transports. Similar buy signals according to trend-following theory ... [...]

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XLK And XLY Spike In Assets

2018-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


It seems like there's a sudden desire to bet on a cyclical resurgence. But not really - it's mostly just a reflection of the looming rebalance to account for the new Communications Services sector.On September 21, the XLY and XLK funds will be adjusted to account for the new fund, so we're going ... [...]

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Shanghai Selling And Seasonality

2018-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


Stocks in China have dropped again, with the Shanghai Composite now off around 20% year-to-date. Going back to its inception in 1990, this is its 3rd-largest YTD decline through 175 sessions of the year. Given that seasonality in the main Chinese equity ETF, FXI, is turning positive, let's take ... [...]

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Financials Lag As Transports Lead

2018-09-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stalling Financials trigger concernEven as the S&P tickles a new high, Financials have struggled and are the worst-performing major sector over the past six months. The ratio between Financials to the S&P just hit a new 52-week low, which has been ... [...]

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Emerging Market Contagion As Hedgers Bet Against Dollar

2018-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Contagion spreads despite calm crudeStories with “contagion” worries are spiking to the highest level in 5 years.The cause, a collapse in emerging markets, is despite a calm market in crude oil, which has usually acted as a balm on those emerging ... [...]

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Everything "Emerging" Has Declined As S&P Holds Firm

2018-09-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Nowhere to hideEmerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have all declined steadily this year.The three asset classes have declined for an average of 150 days since they peaked, ranking among the longest, broadest declines in 30 years. Similar ... [...]

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Industrial Metals Near Bear Market As Miners Collapse

2018-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Industrial metals suck, tooPrecious metals’ lesser-followed kin are nearing a bear market, worrying investors as they are traditionally seen as being leading indicators of economic activity.Once in a bear market, industrial metals tend to keep ... [...]

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Precious Little Optimism As Emerging Markets Sink Toward Bear Market

2018-08-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Precious little optimismOptimism on gold, silver, and platinum now ranks among the lowest in 27 years.The combined Optimism Index on the three metals has been lower only a handful of days. The few other periods of historic pessimism led to good ... [...]

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Breadth Divergences Not Much Of A Concern As Staples Recover

2018-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Few highs as indexes rallyThe S&P 500 has rallied close to its prior highs, but there is a divergence. Relatively few stocks are registering 4-, 12-, and 52-week highs as the index rallies.It’s a concern among technicians but has not been a ... [...]

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Hedge Funds Exposed To Dollar While Consumers' Optimism Time-Shifts

2018-08-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Riding the buckHedge funds have the largest exposure to the dollar in four years. Their returns over the past month have been highly correlated to moves in the buck. They also have a near-record inverse correlation to gold, which has preceded ... [...]

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S&P Nearly Ends Its Correction And Staples Their Downtrend

2018-07-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Still waiting for the cigarThe S&P 500 rallied to within 1% of its previous high, nearly erasing the 10% pullback it suffered earlier this year.Other times it got so close to a high, it took an average of another 4 days to reach it, with generally ... [...]

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Momentum Worries As Emerging Stocks Start Uptrending

2018-07-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum worriesAs the S&P hit a 100-day high, a very low % of stocks are showing momentum. An almost record low % of stocks are above their 10-day avg or have an RSI > 70, which has preceded weak shorter-term returns or failed rallies.Emerging ... [...]

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Financials' Pre-Earnings Decline As Emerging Markets Struggle While Oil Rallies

2018-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Pre-earnings declineFinancials dropped 4% in the months leading up to the current earnings season, which begins this week as banks start to release quarterly earnings.Similar selloffs since 1950 preceded rallies over the next month, though it ... [...]

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Emerging Stocks' Uptrend Ends As S&P Suffers 4th-Longest Pullback

2018-07-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Emerging stocks’ long-term uptrend is goneEmerging markets have ended one of their longest-ever long-term uptrends.Risk was high after the others ended, especially over the next two months. They’ve already seen an 8% drop since the trended ended, ... [...]

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World Markets And Platinum Fall As Utilities Streak Higher

2018-06-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.World stocks hit 2018 lowWorld stocks have hit a 200-day low while the S&P 500 is more than 8% above its own 200-day low. Similar setups led to a rebound in World stocks over the next 2-4 weeks.Compared to the S&P, World stocks outperformed every ... [...]

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Gold Suffers Death Cross As Financials Stumble

2018-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not a Golden CrossGold’s 50-day average finally crossed below its 200-day for the first time in a year, ending one of its longest-ever streaks with a more positive medium- than long-term trend.The metal tended to trend lower in the months after ... [...]

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Dow's Streak Snapped As China ETF Nears Bear Market

2018-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Had to happen sometimeThe Dow Industrials Average ended its 2-year streak of holding above its 200-day average, its 7th-longest streak in an uptrend since 1900.It wasn’t a death knell for the index, especially when the Leading Economic Indicators ... [...]

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GE Booted From Dow As Russell And Nasdaq Hit Highs

2018-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Somebody turn on the lightsGE got booted from the DJIA after 100 years, after a similar stretch of poor returns from Alcoa when it was removed…and before it doubled during the next year.Other stocks that got removed from the Dow did fine going ... [...]

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Emerging Market Bond (And Stock) Rout

2018-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Emerging market bond routU.S. high-yield bonds have outperformed emerging market bonds by 7% in 50 days.Such wide spreads have led to rallies in emerging market bonds more than U.S..Stock rout, tooEmerging market stocks have lagged U.S. stocks by ... [...]

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Emerging Market's Negative Surprises Even As Nasdaq Hits June High

2018-06-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Emerging disappointmentEconomic surprises in emerging markets have been consistently, and increasingly, negative.That has led to mostly poor returns in emerging market stocks and currencies. It has been better for emerging market bonds (in ... [...]

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Euro Death Cross As Down Days Swamp Up Days, Staples Stabilize

2018-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Euro Death CrossFor more than a year, the euro’s 50-day average has been above its 200-day average.That trend has now ended, after one of the longest streaks in the currency’s history. The end to other long streaks led to further weakness in the ... [...]

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Breadth Momentum Picks Up As Value Lags Growth And Homebuilders Turn Up

2018-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is picking upMomentum in breadth figures is returning, with the McClellan Summation Index climbing. When it reaches 500 for the first time in months, it has led to an excellent risk/reward skew for stocks.The S&P 500’s annualized return ... [...]

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Nasdaq Hits New High With Fewer Stocks Coming Along

2018-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Some tech stocks struggle to keep upThe S&P 500 Technology index has hit new highs the past two days, but fewer of its stocks are coming along. In January and March, more than 40% of its members hit 52-week highs, compared to only 15% on ... [...]

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Energy ETF Traders Rush In As Animal Spirit Indicator Hits A High

2018-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF traders rush into EnergyAssets in the primary ETFs focused on the Energy sector have reached $32 billion, a new all-time high. That’s up 20% in just 30 days, among the most rapid increases since at least 2010.Similar surges led to declines for ... [...]

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Transports Shrug Off Oil As Smart Money Bets On VIX

2018-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Transports shrug off oil’s riseThe Dow Transports have rallied strongly over the past 30 days even as oil jumped twice as much.Transports have rallied enough to close at a multi-month high. When the sector has shrugged off surging oil prices ... [...]

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Energy Stocks Hit New Highs As Volatility Traders Pile In

2018-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Energy stocks enjoying new highsMore than 40% of stocks in the S&P 500 Energy sector have reached a 52-week high.That’s the most in more than a year and has preceded declines in the sector in recent years.ETF traders bet on a spike in ... [...]

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Small Caps Lead As Staples Lose Relevance And Energy Can't Lose

2018-05-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The leading indexSmall cap stocks, via the Russell 2000 index, are leading the other major indexes in the race to new highs. It’s the only index that has reached a 52-week high in the past 30 days.Other times it led to new highs, it was an ... [...]

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S&P Breaks Out As Tech, Energy Highs Surge And

2018-05-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A broken pattern emboldens bullsThe S&P 500 put in consecutive lower highs since the January peak, but broke that to the upside on Thursday.The initial breakout from a coiled pattern has a high failure rate in the medium-term. Similar breakouts ... [...]

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Bonds And Consumer Staples Are Battered As Stocks Rebound From Bad Start To Year

2018-05-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds have been batteredA total bond market index has suffered one of its worst declines in decades since the peak last September. It has rallied during less than 1/3 of all weeks over the past 8 months, the worst stretch of selling in 40 ... [...]

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Industrials Sink As Markets Head Into Worst Six Months

2018-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Making stuff isn’t paying offIndustrials stocks that “make stuff” have struggled and just hit a 100-day low.The S&P 500 is still hanging above its long-term 200-day average, but the lag in Industrials is a concern. Over the past 20 years, a new low ... [...]

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Seasonal Overview

2018-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


As we head into a new month, it's always interesting to take a look to see if there are any consistent tendencies among the markets and sectors we watch. Outside of commodity contracts, the concept of seasonality is iffy, especially in recent decades. So for many stock indexes and even sectors, ... [...]

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Consumers Turn Bearish As Dow, Staples Decline

2018-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Consumers are buying…just not stocksThe latest Consumer Confidence survey shows more consumers expect stocks to decline than rally. That’s the first time since the November 2016 election that the U.S. consumer has been bearish on stocks.Other times ... [...]

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Consumer Staples Have Been Historically Unstable

2018-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So much for being a StapleConsumer Staples stocks have taken a big hit over the past couple of days (and weeks). Many of what had been considered safe stocks are down more than 5% in just two days. More than 25% of them are now trading at their ... [...]

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Yet Another Big Gap As Market Tries To Thrust And MLPs Rally

2018-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


Yet another large gap down this morning as traders grapple with what seem like potential game-changers in terms of geopolitics. For the S&P 500 futures, this will mark the 6th time in 7 days that futures have opened at least 0.5% away from the prior close. We saw that kind of emotional ... [...]

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Stocks Gap On NFP Miss And Sector Extremes

2018-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


Below are some observations that have popped up in between reports. Some of these deserve more fleshed-out analysis, others are simply random observations as I cruise through the site and news feeds to get a handle on potential opportunities.As we head into the final session of the week, futures ... [...]

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VIX Jumps 20% Again As Rates Lose 50-Day

2018-03-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A questionable precedentA month ago, we saw that after a 10% decline, the Dow Industrials was most closely tracking “good” corrections. That has started to change in recent sessions, and now the closest precedent is from November 2007.Double ... [...]

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Unstable Staples Lead To Energy Bounce

2018-03-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Staples are unstableConsumer Staples hit a 52-week low on Wednesday even while the broader market holds up. The only times in more than 90 years we’ve seen this to this degree were in 1993 and 1999, which led to gains over the medium-term.Times ... [...]

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Technology Beats Utilities As Confidence Rises

2018-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Tech ramps against staid UtilitiesThe ratio of Tech to Utes has soared in the past couple of years, similar to the 2000 bubble years. It’s not quite that extreme, though, and there were other periods when investors greatly favored the riskier ... [...]

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