Posts tagged as Smart Money - Page 2

Monday Color - Small traders, dollar sellers, S&P momentum, quarterly run, energy bonds

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert

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Consumers haven't been this depressed in 8 years

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers’ concernsThis month, U.S. consumers decided that the economy was headed for a rough patch and stocks were likely to follow. To the greatest extent ...

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Investors Ease In As FedEx Crashes

2019-09-20 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Easing back inIndividual investors are easing back into stocks. The latest AAII survey shows that the Bull Ratio has cycled from extreme pessimism to modest ...

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A Big Jump In Big Money Bulls

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big money gets bullishThe latest survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that polls large money managers with nearly $700 billion under management showed a ...

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What I'm looking at - Germany, Smart Money Index, volume-based breadth, oil spike, Equity Put/Call

2019-09-16 | Troy Bombardia

With the stock market hovering near an all-time high, here's what I'm looking at:GermanyGermany's economy remains weak. Germany Whole Prices, which measures the value of sales from German wholesalers, have fallen -1.1% year-over-year. On the surface this may seem bearish for for the German stock ... [...]

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Hedge Funds Hate Bad Stocks

2019-09-13 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Fund factorsHedge funds that focus on long/short equity strategies seemingly have very low exposure to stocks, which has been a pattern for all of 2019. More ... [...]

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Wall Street Is The Most Confused In 20 Years

2019-09-05 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The Street is behind and confusedWall Street analysts have underestimated the growth in S&P 500 company earnings growth for a year, one of the longest ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper

2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks bounce back after a lessening of geopolitical tension, for the moment at least.Sad StreetThe WSJ notes that expected forward earnings for the S&P 500 is expected to show barely any growth in the quarters ahead according to Wall Street analysts. That's ... [...]

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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

2019-08-17 | Troy Bombardia

I usually write an overview of the markets each week that combines the technical & fundamental indicators I look at:Technicals (1-2 months): no clear edge in either direction. If I had to guess, I think there’s a 60% chance that the S&P makes new lows. Not decisive.Technicals (3-6 months): ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - manufacturing weakness, housing recovery?, Dumb Money, CNN Fear & Greed, Risk Appetite

2019-08-16 | Troy Bombardia

Markets remain volatile amid a flood of "RECESSION" headlines. I'll publish a comprehensive market overview that combines fundamentals with technicals this weekend. But for now, here are a few things I'm looking at. Manufacturing weaknessWhile the media is screaming "RECESSION INCOMING", not all ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

2019-08-14 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest as we go through yet another volatile session.CurvyMight as well get to it, since it's going to be a popular topic today. Another part of the Treasury yield curve inverted (or threatening to do so depending on the data source). The one that matters the most ... [...]

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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert

I won't be publishing a Daily Report this afternoon, so this post is being sent as a Bulletin to all users. This is similar to what is included in the premium notes published most days.Bully BullyEven after a choppy week, the smallest of options traders have sustained their belief in a continued ... [...]

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Monday Color - Discretionary Streak, Fund Exposure, Small Trader Enthusiasm, Earnings Season

2019-07-15 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest on a slow that, with some hints that buyers have reached exhaustion.On A RollThe WSJ notes that the consumer discretionary sector has risen for 12 straight days, one of its longest streaks ever. Indeed.Momentum doesn't die easily, and that was the case after ... [...]

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Why Recession Risk Is More Bark Than Bite...For Now

2019-07-10 | Jason Goepfert

Recession around the cornerAccording to a model from the New York Fed, the risk of recession has risen to a point that has almost guaranteed an economic pullback in the past.But that does not mean it was an imminent danger to stocks, which rose every time but once over the next few months. The ... [...]

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Best June In Decades Is Hated By Wall Street

2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert

A good monthThe S&P 500 enjoyed its best June gain since 1955, with 1999 being the only other year with more than a 5% gain. It also managed to hit a multi-year high during the month.Since 1928, this has had a strong tendency to lead to a good start to July, but not so much after that. For the ... [...]

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Wall Street Isn't Keeping Up

2019-06-28 | Jason Goepfert

Fairly valuedWe’re approaching the halfway point of the year and the S&P 500 has already met Wall Street strategists’ estimate for where it would be at year-end, according to Bloomberg data.When buyers have run ahead of already-rosy Wall Street predictions, stocks have tended to keep going for ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Gas, Wall St Strategists, Sector Breadth, Lagging U.S.

2019-06-27 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks meander ahead of a big international meeting and summer holidays.Gas StocksYesterday, we saw that natural gas was the most-hated commodity, and over the past 15 years it has had a strong tendency to rebound over the next month or so.If we look at how ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch

2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest as traders await the latest guidance from the Fed.Breadth ReviewUtilities have picked up again. Most of the breadth measures are meandering around neutral or slightly stretch. The big move yesterday, though, pushed nearly 60% of those stocks outside of their ... [...]

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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert

A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ... [...]

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Hedge Funds Just Won't Buy

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert

Hesitant hedgiesHedge funds have not been buying this massive rally. Across different hedge fund strategies, there is very little, or even negative, correlation to the movement in stocks, suggesting they are under-invested or even betting against the rally.This is unusual, though it did happen ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Smart Money, Biotech, Options Optimism

2019-04-22 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a quiet Easter Monday session.Smart MoneyLast week, hedgers continued to build up their positions in some of the agricultural contracts. In corn, they went net long by more than 94,000 contracts, the most since 2017. That's more than 5% of open ... [...]

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Wall Street Is Technically Bullish, Fundamentally Bearish

2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert

Technically bullish, fundamentally bearishIn recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have been raising price targets on stocks within the S&P 500. At the same time, they’ve been lowering their earnings estimates.Usually, there is a positive correlation between the two. When there is a divergence like ... [...]

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Wall Street Analysts Are Catching Up To Dumb Money

2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert

Not-so-dumb moneyDumb Money Confidence rose to an extreme in February, yet the S&P 500 has tacked on more than 5% since then, suggesting it’s not so dumb after all. The recent gains in stocks have attracted more of these traders, and their Confidence just surged to a new high – that has been a ... [...]

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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb

2019-03-07 | Jason Goepfert

Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ... [...]

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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert

Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ... [...]

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Smart Money Buys In As Other Managers Sit Out

2019-02-13 | Jason Goepfert

Smart money piles inAs delayed reports get released, we’re seeing that “smart money” hedgers were busy buying Nasdaq and DJIA futures in January. This is unusual since the market was rising, and it’s even more unusual how aggressive they were.When they went net long those contracts since the ... [...]

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Smart Money Hedgers Go Net Long

2019-02-12 | Jason Goepfert

In stocks, “smart money” hedgers built up their largest net long position of the bull market. Hedgers went net long in Nasdaq and Dow futures, and their positions in those two contracts are often a better tell for stocks in general than S&P 500 futures positions are.This is notable because they ... [...]

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Back To Greed; Low Exposure; Oscillator Streak

2019-01-28 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Back to greedThe CNN Fear & Greed model has gone from extreme Fear in December to Greed now.It’s not unusual to see it swing this much, this quickly, but it is unusual when the S&P 500 still hasn’t made it above its 200-day averages. And those ... [...]

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Zweig Breadth Thrust; Strategists vs Analysts

2019-01-08 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.TriggeredThis time is different. When we look at the declines and attempted recoveries since the trouble started in October, what has transpired since mid- to late December is markedly different than the ones that failed. This push off the lows has ... [...]

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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert

The release of some of the weekly data we follow has confirmed just how extreme last week’s activity moved sentiment. I will be travelling for the holiday, so no end-of-day report will be published.One of the most reliable gauges we have is showing an extreme like we’ve rarely seen. When we ... [...]

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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ... [...]

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Testing A Wide Disparity Between Smart And Dumb Money

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert

With the volatility in stocks this week, the spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence rose to 55%, the widest since January 2016.Our Confidence indices use mostly real-money gauges - there are few opinions involved here. Generally, we want to follow the Smart Money traders when they ... [...]

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Bear Market Roadmap; Pessimistic CFOs

2018-12-14 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bear market roadmapThere have been 20 bear markets in U.S. stocks since 1950. If we look at their average price path during the next year, the S&P’s performance since September shows a high correlation to 10 of them.After those 10 bear markets were ... [...]

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Buy The Dip Is Dead; December Reversal; Smart Money Is Covering

2018-12-11 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Buy-the-dip is deadOver the past six months, there has been a dramatic decrease in the probability that buyers will step in after weakness. After reaching a 20-year high earlier this year, the probably that investors will buy the drip has dropped ... [...]

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Bonds On Sale; Hedge Fund Exposure; Persistent New Lows

2018-12-10 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds on saleA popular intermediate-term corporate bond ETF was trading this week at a price (relatively) far below its underlying value.Big discounts on liquid ETFs are rare, and often a good contrary indicator. Over its nearly 10-year history, ... [...]

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Discounts On MLP Funds; Wall Street Looks To 2019

2018-12-04 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Partnership pessimismOne of the better ways to gain exposure to master limited partnerships (MLPs) is through closed-end funds (CEFs), which often swing to premiums or discounts to the value of their underlying holdings based almost purely on ... [...]

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Insiders Buy; A Selling Climax; Small Traders Panic

2018-11-03 | Jason Goepfert

The weekly indicators that just came out show some interesting extremes.Corporate insiders picked up their buying interest, now that an increasing number of companies are outside of their restriction window during earnings season. This isn't my favorite indicator, especially when it shows ... [...]

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Smart Money Moves In As Dumb Money Leaves

2018-10-22 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money moves inTraders who tend to buy into declining prices spotted an opportunity over the past week. Hedgers in the major equity index futures contracts covered nearly $19 billion of their short position, one of the largest one-week changes ... [...]

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Consumers Are Comfortable As Gold Drops Amid Smart Money Big Short

2018-10-01 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Signs of intense comfortAnother survey is showing a high level of confidence among U.S. consumers. The Conference Board, University of Michigan and Bloomberg surveys are now all near multi-decade highs. When the two oldest are taken together, the ... [...]

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Smart Money Rushes To Safe Havens As World Stocks Rally

2018-08-24 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Hiding in safe havens“Smart money” hedgers have established extreme positions in safe haven assets including gold, Treasuries, the yen and the VIX.Other times they piled into the havens, it led to fine performance in stocks, and better returns in ... [...]

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Hedge Funds Exposed To Dollar While Consumers' Optimism Time-Shifts

2018-08-03 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Riding the buckHedge funds have the largest exposure to the dollar in four years. Their returns over the past month have been highly correlated to moves in the buck. They also have a near-record inverse correlation to gold, which has preceded ... [...]

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Smart Money Index Influenced By ETFs as Investor Net Worth Hits New Low

2018-05-24 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The last hour conundrumSomebody keeps selling into the close, and it’s commonly assumed that it’s large “smart money” traders. That concept worked in years past, but the proliferation of ETFs has thrown a wrench into it.Using SPY volume, it’s clear ... [...]

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Smart Money / Dumb Money Spread Goes Negative As Gold Falls

2018-05-16 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Spread between Smart/Dumb Money shrinksThe spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is negative for the first time in months.By the time it has inverted after other long periods above zero, stocks struggled short-term but not long-term. ... [...]

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Starting Position Of Worst Six Months As Smart Money Buys "Stuff"

2018-04-30 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Worst six months with a bad startThe end of April means that stocks enter the “worst six months” period. Being invested in stocks only during the May – October period resulted in almost no gain since 1950.When the S&P was down YTD through April, ... [...]

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Smart Money Sells As Rates Pick Up

2018-04-20 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money keeps sellingThe Smart Money Flow Index is not improving, as late-day sellers continue to show up. Assuming that means large, “smart” money managers are getting out (an iffy conclusion), it’s a warning sign.The only time in 35 years it ... [...]

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No Thrust As Big Money Pulls Back

2018-04-17 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Two weeks and still no thrustStocks have been rallying for a couple of weeks, but there hasn’t yet been a 90% Up Volume day.Forward returns when there has been a 90% day in the first two weeks were excellent, not so much when not. That is a minor ... [...]

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Wall Street Sentiment As Few Fidelity Funds Beat Cash

2018-04-11 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An undervalued marketStocks are undervalued, at least according to Wall Street strategists. They expect the S&P 500 to end the year more than 10% above where it is, enough to suggest they think the index is undervalued.When they’ve been so adamant ... [...]

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Smart Money Drops As Traders And Economy Favor Dollar

2018-04-10 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money collapseMonday nearly saw a 20-year record decline in the Smart Money Index that compares first hour vs last hour trading. The past 30 days has consistent seen selling in the SMI, suggesting dumb money buying and smart money ... [...]

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Stocks Close Poorly As Smart Money Leaves Amid Tighter Conditions

2018-03-25 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ramp Capital has foldedLast year, stocks routinely closed in the upper end of the day’s trading range, but that has drastically changed. Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has closed in the bottom half of its range every day, a new record.The ... [...]

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