Posts tagged as Smart Money


Corporate insiders drift away from their buying binge

2020-07-23 | Jason Goepfert


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The smart money still isn't selling

2020-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


A couple of smart money indicators show that those who tend to be right at sentiment extremes are still heavily long.

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Signs of smart money buying in futures, sectors

2020-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Wall Street strategists have never been more pessimistic about the 2nd half

2020-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


Wall Street strategists are forecasting a loss for the S&P 500 over the next 6 months, something they don't do often.

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Wall Street has never been more confused

2020-06-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Big money managers come back

2020-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Institutions are coming back from the "sidelines"

2020-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


Institutional investors are finally starting to pull cash from money market funds, after a historic rise in those assets.

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Institutions are coming off the "sidelines"

2020-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Corporate insiders like S&P 500 stocks a lot more than Nasdaq 100 ones

2020-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


Corporate insider buying in S&P 500 stocks has been very heavy over the past 6 months. Not so much in Nasdaq 100 stocks.

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Corporate insiders favor S&P 500 stocks, not Nasdaq 100, as trends diverge

2020-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Wall Street can't keep up with torrid gains in stocks

2020-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


Share prices have surged, and have far surpassed where Wall Street strategists and analysts think they should be.

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Prices are surging and Wall Street can't keep up

2020-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Is the "smart money" really selling?

2020-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


The Smart Money Flow Index shows that stocks have been suffering late-day selling pressure, and it's diverging from the S&P 500.

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Institutions believe in stocks a lot more than mom-and-pop

2020-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Late-day selling drives the Smart Money Flow Index to a lower low

2020-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Wall Street analysts turn positive after record downgrades

2020-05-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Big money managers ease their pessimism

2020-04-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Hedge funds remain short despite rally

2020-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Fund managers scramble for cash as they sell stocks

2020-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Smart money is buying in as the oil market tries to normalize

2020-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


Smart money hedgers have bought $10 billion worth of equity index futures. The oil futures market is trying to normalize.

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Smart money insiders buy stocks and futures

2020-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Maybe Strategists Are Betting On Black Swans

2019-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


Wall Street strategists aren't very optimistic about 2020, and black swans are on sale again.More apathetic strategistsAnother survey of Wall Street strategists shows that even more of them are lukewarm on the prospects for stocks in 2020. Their average guess is for the S&P to gain a lowly 4%, ...

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CFOs Are Getting More Confident (But Their Bosses...)

2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


Corporate insiders, CEOs and CFOs, are becoming more optimistic as stock market indexes break out.Insiders show diverging sentimentIn recent quarters, corporate CFOs have become more optimistic after a long time expecting declining conditions. At the same time, their bosses (CEOs) have continued ...

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Smart Money Is Betting On The "Gundlach Ratio"

2019-12-12 | Jason Goepfert


Smart money is betting on the Gundlach Ratio to predict a rise in interest rates, and micro-cap stocks are breaking out.Smart money’s bet on ‘Gundlach Ratio'Respected bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach highlighted his use of a ratio of copper to gold to forecast the future path of interest ...

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Hedge Funds Are Ramping Up Their Exposure

2019-12-11 | Jason Goepfert


Hedge funds are ramping up their stock market exposure, and the VIX "fear gauge" is rising along with stocks.Hedge? What’s That?For most of 2019, hedge funds employing different strategies all were seemingly avoiding stocks. Their sensitivity to movements in the S&P 500 were very low, or even ...

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Smart Money vs Dumb Money Is Getting Extreme

2019-10-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Confidence conflictQuite a few times over the past couple of months, we’ve discussed how various aspects of sentiment were curiously subdued. From individual ...

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Big Money Has Never Been More Bearish

2019-10-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big Money BearsFor the first time in 20 years, the big money is betting against stocks. The latest semi-annual survey of big money managers by Barron’s showed ...

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What's Wrong With The Smart Money?

2019-10-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Another one bites the dustThe Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest ...

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Hedge Funds Keep Pussyfooting Around

2019-10-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.PussyfootingHedge fund managers appear to have ever-lower exposure to stocks, which has been a theme this year. It’s now on par with the ends of crises in ...

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Monday Color - Small traders, dollar sellers, S&P momentum, quarterly run, energy bonds

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Consumers haven't been this depressed in 8 years

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers’ concernsThis month, U.S. consumers decided that the economy was headed for a rough patch and stocks were likely to follow. To the greatest extent ...

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Investors Ease In As FedEx Crashes

2019-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Easing back inIndividual investors are easing back into stocks. The latest AAII survey shows that the Bull Ratio has cycled from extreme pessimism to modest ...

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A Big Jump In Big Money Bulls

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big money gets bullishThe latest survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that polls large money managers with nearly $700 billion under management showed a ...

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What I'm looking at - Germany, Smart Money Index, volume-based breadth, oil spike, Equity Put/Call

2019-09-16 | Troy Bombardia


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Hedge Funds Hate Bad Stocks

2019-09-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Fund factorsHedge funds that focus on long/short equity strategies seemingly have very low exposure to stocks, which has been a pattern for all of 2019. More ...

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Wall Street Is The Most Confused In 20 Years

2019-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The Street is behind and confusedWall Street analysts have underestimated the growth in S&P 500 company earnings growth for a year, one of the longest ...

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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper

2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

2019-08-17 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - manufacturing weakness, housing recovery?, Dumb Money, CNN Fear & Greed, Risk Appetite

2019-08-16 | Troy Bombardia


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Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

2019-08-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - Discretionary Streak, Fund Exposure, Small Trader Enthusiasm, Earnings Season

2019-07-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Why Recession Risk Is More Bark Than Bite...For Now

2019-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


Recession around the cornerAccording to a model from the New York Fed, the risk of recession has risen to a point that has almost guaranteed an economic pullback in the past.But that does not mean it was an imminent danger to stocks, which rose every time but once over the next few months. The ...

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Best June In Decades Is Hated By Wall Street

2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


A good monthThe S&P 500 enjoyed its best June gain since 1955, with 1999 being the only other year with more than a 5% gain. It also managed to hit a multi-year high during the month.Since 1928, this has had a strong tendency to lead to a good start to July, but not so much after that. For the ...

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Wall Street Isn't Keeping Up

2019-06-28 | Jason Goepfert


Fairly valuedWe’re approaching the halfway point of the year and the S&P 500 has already met Wall Street strategists’ estimate for where it would be at year-end, according to Bloomberg data.When buyers have run ahead of already-rosy Wall Street predictions, stocks have tended to keep going for ...

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Thursday Color - Gas, Wall St Strategists, Sector Breadth, Lagging U.S.

2019-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch

2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ...

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Hedge Funds Just Won't Buy

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


Hesitant hedgiesHedge funds have not been buying this massive rally. Across different hedge fund strategies, there is very little, or even negative, correlation to the movement in stocks, suggesting they are under-invested or even betting against the rally.This is unusual, though it did happen ...

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Monday Midday Color - Smart Money, Biotech, Options Optimism

2019-04-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Wall Street Is Technically Bullish, Fundamentally Bearish

2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


Technically bullish, fundamentally bearishIn recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have been raising price targets on stocks within the S&P 500. At the same time, they’ve been lowering their earnings estimates.Usually, there is a positive correlation between the two. When there is a divergence like ...

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Wall Street Analysts Are Catching Up To Dumb Money

2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


Not-so-dumb moneyDumb Money Confidence rose to an extreme in February, yet the S&P 500 has tacked on more than 5% since then, suggesting it’s not so dumb after all. The recent gains in stocks have attracted more of these traders, and their Confidence just surged to a new high – that has been a ...

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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb

2019-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ...

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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ...

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Smart Money Buys In As Other Managers Sit Out

2019-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


Smart money piles inAs delayed reports get released, we’re seeing that “smart money” hedgers were busy buying Nasdaq and DJIA futures in January. This is unusual since the market was rising, and it’s even more unusual how aggressive they were.When they went net long those contracts since the ...

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Smart Money Hedgers Go Net Long

2019-02-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Back To Greed; Low Exposure; Oscillator Streak

2019-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Back to greedThe CNN Fear & Greed model has gone from extreme Fear in December to Greed now.It’s not unusual to see it swing this much, this quickly, but it is unusual when the S&P 500 still hasn’t made it above its 200-day averages. And those ...

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Zweig Breadth Thrust; Strategists vs Analysts

2019-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.TriggeredThis time is different. When we look at the declines and attempted recoveries since the trouble started in October, what has transpired since mid- to late December is markedly different than the ones that failed. This push off the lows has ...

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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ...

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Testing A Wide Disparity Between Smart And Dumb Money

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


With the volatility in stocks this week, the spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence rose to 55%, the widest since January 2016.Our Confidence indices use mostly real-money gauges - there are few opinions involved here. Generally, we want to follow the Smart Money traders when they ...

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Bear Market Roadmap; Pessimistic CFOs

2018-12-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bear market roadmapThere have been 20 bear markets in U.S. stocks since 1950. If we look at their average price path during the next year, the S&P’s performance since September shows a high correlation to 10 of them.After those 10 bear markets were ...

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Buy The Dip Is Dead; December Reversal; Smart Money Is Covering

2018-12-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Buy-the-dip is deadOver the past six months, there has been a dramatic decrease in the probability that buyers will step in after weakness. After reaching a 20-year high earlier this year, the probably that investors will buy the drip has dropped ...

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Bonds On Sale; Hedge Fund Exposure; Persistent New Lows

2018-12-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds on saleA popular intermediate-term corporate bond ETF was trading this week at a price (relatively) far below its underlying value.Big discounts on liquid ETFs are rare, and often a good contrary indicator. Over its nearly 10-year history, ...

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Discounts On MLP Funds; Wall Street Looks To 2019

2018-12-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Partnership pessimismOne of the better ways to gain exposure to master limited partnerships (MLPs) is through closed-end funds (CEFs), which often swing to premiums or discounts to the value of their underlying holdings based almost purely on ...

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Insiders Buy; A Selling Climax; Small Traders Panic

2018-11-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Smart Money Moves In As Dumb Money Leaves

2018-10-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money moves inTraders who tend to buy into declining prices spotted an opportunity over the past week. Hedgers in the major equity index futures contracts covered nearly $19 billion of their short position, one of the largest one-week changes ...

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Consumers Are Comfortable As Gold Drops Amid Smart Money Big Short

2018-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Signs of intense comfortAnother survey is showing a high level of confidence among U.S. consumers. The Conference Board, University of Michigan and Bloomberg surveys are now all near multi-decade highs. When the two oldest are taken together, the ...

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Smart Money Rushes To Safe Havens As World Stocks Rally

2018-08-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Hiding in safe havens“Smart money” hedgers have established extreme positions in safe haven assets including gold, Treasuries, the yen and the VIX.Other times they piled into the havens, it led to fine performance in stocks, and better returns in ...

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Hedge Funds Exposed To Dollar While Consumers' Optimism Time-Shifts

2018-08-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Riding the buckHedge funds have the largest exposure to the dollar in four years. Their returns over the past month have been highly correlated to moves in the buck. They also have a near-record inverse correlation to gold, which has preceded ...

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Smart Money Index Influenced By ETFs as Investor Net Worth Hits New Low

2018-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The last hour conundrumSomebody keeps selling into the close, and it’s commonly assumed that it’s large “smart money” traders. That concept worked in years past, but the proliferation of ETFs has thrown a wrench into it.Using SPY volume, it’s clear ...

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Smart Money / Dumb Money Spread Goes Negative As Gold Falls

2018-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Spread between Smart/Dumb Money shrinksThe spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is negative for the first time in months.By the time it has inverted after other long periods above zero, stocks struggled short-term but not long-term. ...

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Starting Position Of Worst Six Months As Smart Money Buys "Stuff"

2018-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Worst six months with a bad startThe end of April means that stocks enter the “worst six months” period. Being invested in stocks only during the May – October period resulted in almost no gain since 1950.When the S&P was down YTD through April, ...

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Smart Money Sells As Rates Pick Up

2018-04-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money keeps sellingThe Smart Money Flow Index is not improving, as late-day sellers continue to show up. Assuming that means large, “smart” money managers are getting out (an iffy conclusion), it’s a warning sign.The only time in 35 years it ...

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No Thrust As Big Money Pulls Back

2018-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Two weeks and still no thrustStocks have been rallying for a couple of weeks, but there hasn’t yet been a 90% Up Volume day.Forward returns when there has been a 90% day in the first two weeks were excellent, not so much when not. That is a minor ...

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Wall Street Sentiment As Few Fidelity Funds Beat Cash

2018-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An undervalued marketStocks are undervalued, at least according to Wall Street strategists. They expect the S&P 500 to end the year more than 10% above where it is, enough to suggest they think the index is undervalued.When they’ve been so adamant ...

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Smart Money Drops As Traders And Economy Favor Dollar

2018-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money collapseMonday nearly saw a 20-year record decline in the Smart Money Index that compares first hour vs last hour trading. The past 30 days has consistent seen selling in the SMI, suggesting dumb money buying and smart money ...

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Stocks Close Poorly As Smart Money Leaves Amid Tighter Conditions

2018-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ramp Capital has foldedLast year, stocks routinely closed in the upper end of the day’s trading range, but that has drastically changed. Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has closed in the bottom half of its range every day, a new record.The ...

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