Posts tagged as Sentiment


Stocks can't keep up...and a dirty little secret

2020-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


Running behindAs the S&P 500 recently hit record highs, fewer of its stocks have kept up. Over the past three months, fewer than 40% of them managed to show a return that was higher than the index itself. In the past 15 years, there was only one date - and not a good one - when so few stocks ...

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Is the stock market's rally dead?

2020-02-21 | Troy Bombardia


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Options traders spend billions betting that this rally won't end

2020-02-19 | Jason Goepfert


6 weeks of speculationSince early January, options traders have been aggressively betting on a continued ramp higher in stocks. It’s mostly paid off, and they keep pressing. Each week that goes by without a pullback, traders become more aggressive, and by some measures, they’ve never been more ...

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Options traders set new speculative record

2020-02-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Market overview: tech and growth stocks surge

2020-02-15 | Troy Bombardia


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7-figure accounts surge along with mo-mo market

2020-02-14 | Jason Goepfert


Seven-figure surgeRetail traders are becoming manic about trading stocks. The constant drumbeat of new highs combined with zero commissions has proved to be irresistible, and a record number of them have account balances worthy of bragging rights.According to Fidelity, there has been a surge in ...

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Less greed and more warnings

2020-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Mom & Pop are manic about stocks

2020-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


ManicWith incessantly rising stocks and commission-free trading, retail traders have become manic. We could reasonably expect trading activity to rise under conditions like this.But it has not only risen, it went parabolic in January. On E-Trade alone, trading activity has surpassed 450,000 ...

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Stocks are hitting new highs, and with less greed

2020-02-12 | Jason Goepfert


A less greedy highMany sentiment indicators hit historic extremes of optimism in December and January. After stocks dipped in late January, sentiment reset. Now that they’ve moved to new highs, it’s being accompanied by less optimism.The CNN Fear & Greed index is a model created by and published ...

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What I'm looking at - grind higher, Put/Call, rally's distance, S&P 500 breadth

2020-02-12 | Troy Bombardia


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Market & fundamentals overview: the rally continues

2020-02-08 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - Dow earnings, German manufacturing, tech rally, shallow drawdowns, Treasuries sentiment

2020-02-07 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - sentiment, McClellan Summation, new highs, liquidity premium

2020-02-06 | Troy Bombardia


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Sentiment Is Normalizing As Technical Warnings Trigger

2020-02-04 | Jason Goepfert


Not quite normalAfter hitting optimistic extremes – and then staying there for weeks on end – sentiment has started to normalize. It’s not quite back to a neutral range but is getting there quickly.Even so, when it has been stretched as much as it has, just getting to neutral hasn’t been enough ...

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'Big Four' Indexes Register Warnings As Sentiment Recedes

2020-02-03 | Jason Goepfert


Big four warningsWith an increasing number of stocks “splitting” this week, all of the “big four” stock indexes have triggered technical warning signs. The last time the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 all did so was last May right before a pullback.Even though these ...

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Market & fundamentals overview: the long awaited pullback

2020-02-02 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - emerging markets, utilities breadth, AAII, Taiwan

2020-01-30 | Troy Bombardia


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Retail Traders Storm Back As Key Reversals Spike

2020-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


Retail reboundWith a combination of no commissions and a runaway market, retail traders haven’t been this active in 15 years. Brokerages with a heavy retail customer base have seen trading activity skyrocket relative to overall market volume.The introduction of commission-free trading throws a ...

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What I'm looking at - continued low volatility, Bollinger Bands, AAII

2020-01-23 | Troy Bombardia


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Writers Have Been Right As Stocks Emerge From Bear Markets

2020-01-23 | Jason Goepfert


Right-way writersNewsletter writers have been predominantly bullish for more than 3 months, a good thing given how stocks have performed. Their Bull Ratio has now been above 75% for 13 consecutive weeks, the longest streak since the end of 2017, and one of the longest stretches in 50 years.It’s ...

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Options Traders Have Never Done This Before

2020-01-22 | Jason Goepfert


More record speculationTwo weeks ago, options traders pressed their bets, pushing speculative activity to a record high.And they just keep pressing.Last week, call buying to open as a percentage of all NYSE volume hit a record that had been set just the prior week. Even more telling, traders are ...

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An Extreme - And Protracted - Stretch Of Optimism

2020-01-21 | Jason Goepfert


Extreme, and protractedOn December 26, a bout of enthusiasm pushed 56% of our core indicators into an optimistic extreme, which was the most in 15 years. We just surpassed that, with 57% of them hitting an extreme on Thursday. For the past month, there has been an extreme number of indicators ...

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What I'm looking at - Cass Freight Index, strength of the trend, more breadth, Put/Call

2020-01-16 | Troy Bombardia


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Asset Managers Have Record Exposure As Wall Street Favors Technicals

2020-01-15 | Jason Goepfert


Asset managers at record exposureAsset managers are now holding a net long position of nearly 30% of the open interest in major equity index futures, the most ever. While history is limited, other times they held a large amount of the open interest didn’t pan out so well for their bets.The only ...

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The "Energizer" Rally Keeps Going Despite Rising Jobless Claims

2020-01-13 | Jason Goepfert


The Energizer rallyDespite extremes in sentiment which started to pop up in November, stocks continued to rally. After the spread between Smart and Dumb Money fell to -50%, the S&P has since enjoyed almost uninterrupted upside. This is the best reaction in 20 years after such extreme ...

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Market & fundamentals overview: the relentless rally continues

2020-01-11 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - Medium Term Volatility, sentiment, jumpy VIX, NASDAQ breadth, palladium

2020-01-09 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - AIM, yield curve steepening, Macro Index, Initial Claims, emerging market currencies

2019-12-31 | Troy Bombardia


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Market & fundamentals overview: looking at the year ahead

2019-12-28 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - equity Put/Call, low volatility, relentless momentum, low volume, Brazil

2019-12-27 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - 2019 vs 2018, equity Put/Call, Value Line, breadth surge, AUD

2019-12-24 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - sentiment, LEI, Hong Kong volatility, strong momentum, Mexico surge

2019-12-20 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - new highs, smart money/dumb money, emerging markets, optimism, bond Optix

2019-12-19 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - ex U.S. breakouts, Europe, CNN Fear & Greed, commodities, high yield bonds, breadth, put/call

2019-12-18 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - breakouts, new highs, breadth thrusts, equity put/call, and Pound's surge

2019-12-13 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - Smart Money, USD breakdown, ZEW, microcaps, growth & tech index

2019-12-12 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - HiLo, coffee, Sweden PMI, AAII and blow-off top

2019-12-06 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - Titanic Syndrome, U.S. breadth, overseas breadth, biotech, VIX jump, seasonality

2019-12-04 | Troy Bombardia


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