Posts tagged as Seasonality

Monday Color - Small traders, dollar sellers, S&P momentum, quarterly run, energy bonds

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert

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Monday color - Nifty rebound, a rocky week, small traders

2019-09-23 | Jason Goepfert

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Momentum Traders' Massive Loss

2019-09-10 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Massive momentum moveOn Monday, many momentum traders likely had their worst day in a decade. Stocks that showed the best gains year-to-date suffered some of ... [...]

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Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest on a so-far quiet start to the week.Returning Risk AppetiteOver the past few weeks, we've gone over many signs that investors are seriously anxious. To an extreme and surprising degree, given that stocks were holding up relatively well.Now we're starting to see ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Post-Holiday Blah, September After Volatile August, Put Premiums And Climaxes, Mexico

2019-09-03 | Jason Goepfert

Traders start to return from the summer with losses in stocks and scary headlines the world over. This kind of activity has preceded mixed outcomes, and that's becoming a them in the shorter-term, without a clear bias.As Troy noted in an excellent recap over the weekend, the medium-term of ... [...]

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Poor Earnings Growth With Stocks At Highs In Q2

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert

Depending on the source, it looks like earnings for S&P 500 companies are going to be lower than they were in the same quarter last year. There was a hint of “whistling past the graveyard” in those rallies, as the S&P ended up running into trouble several times, especially in recent ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to position themselves ahead of a deluge of earnings.Earnings ParadeMuch is being made of the potential slowdown in earnings as companies begin to report in earnest over the next couple of weeks. We've seen in years past that "earnings ... [...]

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Monday Color - Discretionary Streak, Fund Exposure, Small Trader Enthusiasm, Earnings Season

2019-07-15 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest on a slow that, with some hints that buyers have reached exhaustion.On A RollThe WSJ notes that the consumer discretionary sector has risen for 12 straight days, one of its longest streaks ever. Indeed.Momentum doesn't die easily, and that was the case after ... [...]

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Tech Has Led - What That Should Mean For The Summer

2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert

Similar sector first halvesThe S&P 500 has enjoyed great gains through the first half of the year, as have most of its sectors. Looking at other years when the S&P gained at least 10% through June that had the most similar returns among sectors, the next couple of months tended to be ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Quiet, Fed Talk, Pound, Copper, Bond Optimism

2019-07-10 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest as traders react to the latest Fed talk.All QuietThe WSJ notes that stocks haven't been moving much lately, with the S&P 500 notching its 21st day without a 1% or larger move. This is encroaching on some of the longer streaks in its history, especially when the ... [...]

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Best June In Decades Is Hated By Wall Street

2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert

A good monthThe S&P 500 enjoyed its best June gain since 1955, with 1999 being the only other year with more than a 5% gain. It also managed to hit a multi-year high during the month.Since 1928, this has had a strong tendency to lead to a good start to July, but not so much after that. For the ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest on another morning with a largish negative gap open.GapStocks are showing another large negative gap this morning, adding to what has been a near-record cluster of anxious openings. Forgetting the fact that this comes on the heels of that cluster, we can see ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Health Care, Opex

2019-04-18 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this pre-holiday Mueller-fest.DamagedThe carnage in health care stocks over the past few days has generated some interesting readings in the breadth metrics. The move was swift and severe enough that more than 60% of stocks in the sector closed below ... [...]

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Most Confident "Dumb Money" In A Decade

2019-04-17 | Jason Goepfert

Maximum optimismDumb Money Confidence has been climbing steadily for a month, and stocks have so far shrugged off that extreme optimism. Now it has reached its highest level in a decade.Every date that saw this high of a reading in the past 20 years sported a negative return in the S&P 500 at ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on tax day.April 15Just because.Breadth ReviewThere was another surge in French stocks hitting multi-month highs to end last week, at nearly 50% of CAC components.That has helped to push its long-term breadth momentum to an extreme.In the U.S., the ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-08 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.This Little Piggy Goes To MarketHog futures have soared. Corn has not. The ratio between the two is now at an extreme.There are a large number of factors that go into the price gyrations of both markets, but historically there has been a loose ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-01 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Gap And Go?The S&P is trying to put in a runaway gap to start the month. It has mostly struggled, with the only true successes being in February '98 and '12. The others settled back as the months progressed.Good TrendJust because it's going to be ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.FOMC ReversalStocks are trying to fully reverse any weakness from earlier this week. If SPY closes at a new high for this move, it would be the first time traders pushed it to at least a 100-day high the day following a FOMC meeting since 2014. ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-18 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this rally-fading day.ExpirationI think we've been looking at this tendency for more than 15 years now, and surely others were before that. After one of the quadruple witching days, especially in March, stocks have struggled for the next week. Not sure ... [...]

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Slowing GDP As Survey Sentiment Rebounds During A Nice Couple Of Months

2019-03-01 | Jason Goepfert

Slowing growthThe GDP release relieved some investors by being better than feared. But forecasts show that growth this quarter is likely to be the lowest in 8 quarters.Like we’ve seen during past studies looking at economic or earnings recessions, the hype doesn’t often translate to forward ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.SlickThe WSJ notes that it's not only stocks enjoying a good start to the year. For oil, it's the best-ever, unless it takes a massive hit today. With a gain through yesterday of more than 25%, it's by far the best YTD return through February since ... [...]

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Tightest 100-Day Correlations Amid A 20-Year Best Earnings Season

2019-02-20 | Jason Goepfert

Just like usThere have been nearly 20 different 100-day time windows that have a high correlation to the past 100 sessions in the S&P 500. Most of them ended up peaking right about this time and saw pullbacks over the medium-term.These analogs have been suggesting for a while that stocks ... [...]

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The End Of A Very Good Q4 Earnings Season

2019-02-19 | Jason Goepfert

With Wal-Mart reporting results today, the 4th quarter earnings reporting season has unofficially ended. And what a season it was, with a likely gain of more than 8% for the S&P 500 (measured from the unofficial start of earnings season about a week into the New Year and lasting through ... [...]

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S&P Ends January Below 200-Day Average

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert

There are a lot of positives happening right now, especially related to the thrust in market breadth. One factor definitely not in favor, though, is the combination of shorter-term seasonality and longer-term trend.When the S&P 500 has ended the month of January below its 200-day average, the ... [...]

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Starting The Year Off Wrong

2019-01-02 | Jason Goepfert

As traders return from what for most was a week away, equity futures are getting hit hard. If they stay around here, it will be the worst open following a holiday since 2016. There have been 4 others with at least a 1% opening loss since the 2009 bottom.There hasn't been a very good record at ... [...]

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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert

The release of some of the weekly data we follow has confirmed just how extreme last week’s activity moved sentiment. I will be travelling for the holiday, so no end-of-day report will be published.One of the most reliable gauges we have is showing an extreme like we’ve rarely seen. When we ... [...]

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Investors Flee Equities; Highly-Correlated Declines; December Selling

2018-12-17 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaving en masseInvestors yanked $46 billion from equity funds this week. Even accounting for the usually mid-December outflow, as a percentage of total fund assets, this is the largest outflow in at least 15 years.After the other weeks when there ... [...]

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Largest Gap Since '11; Presidential Services

2018-12-03 | Jason Goepfert

Most of the time, participants have no idea why markets move. Reasons are given during and after the fact, but they're just guesses that sound good, really.A handful of times each year, though, the reasons are clear. Based on the way markets have been trading in recent weeks and the reaction ... [...]

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Thanksgiving Selling; Heavy Pessimism; Monday Gaps

2018-11-26 | Jason Goepfert

There certainly wasn't much of the typical pre-holiday buoyancy in markets last week. Bucking the traditionally positive, low-volatility holiday trading, markets got hit hard, particularly the stock market.That left the S&P 500 at a 6-month low the day after Thanksgiving, which has never ... [...]

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Post-Election Jump; No More Oversold Tailwind

2018-11-08 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Election excitementFollowing the midterm election, the S&P 500 jumped more than 1%, and sector performance showed a strong risk-on bias.It was the best post-election day rally for the S&P 500 since 1982, which is the only one (midterm or ... [...]

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Oil's Near-Bear Market And 7 Straight Losses; Election Toss-Up

2018-11-07 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Oil’s very bad monthCrude oil is nearing a 20% decline from its October peak, a bear market according to most definitions.Optimism has since dropped below 40 for the first time in over a year, but it’s still well above prior bouts of pessimism when ... [...]

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Post-Election Gap

2018-11-07 | Jason Goepfert

Stock index futures are rallying after what turned out to be an expected election outcome - an unpopular president led to a loss of seats and a mixed Congress.According to BofAML, that has preceded an annual return in the S&P 500 of 12%, so there's that.On a much shorter time frame, this is one ... [...]

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Gridlock For A Disliked President

2018-11-06 | Jason Goepfert

Most of the hand-wringing over today's U.S. midterm elections is just noise. Even the best pollsters have only a shaky grasp on potential results, and even then, trying to guess what that means for markets is foolhardy. The reaction following the 2016 election is the exception proving that ... [...]

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Markets (Usually) Don't Bottom On Friday

2018-10-26 | Jason Goepfert

For the second time in only a few days, traders are looking at another large gap down to start the day, with S&P 500 futures indicated down by more than 1%.It's easy to forget, but we've seen this kind of large losses at multi-month lows five other times since the bottom in 2009. Other that ... [...]

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Stocks, Sectors In Correction; Nasdaq's Bad Day; S&P Negative YTD; Spike In Pessimism

2018-10-25 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks in correctionThe S&P still hasn’t suffered a correction, if we define it by a 10% decline from a 52-week high. With the severe loss on Wednesday, it has just barely missed the cut. Most of its stocks haven’t been so fortunate, however. With ... [...]

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Money-Losing IPOs Debut Amid Low Uncertainty Ahead Of Elections

2018-10-03 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Comfortable with losing moneyBankers have brought the most money-losing IPOs to market since 2000. When we looked at this in the spring of 2015, even then it wasn’t as extreme as it is now. The bankers can’t do this unless the public accepts the ... [...]

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Shanghai Selling And Seasonality

2018-09-17 | Jason Goepfert

Stocks in China have dropped again, with the Shanghai Composite now off around 20% year-to-date. Going back to its inception in 1990, this is its 3rd-largest YTD decline through 175 sessions of the year. Given that seasonality in the main Chinese equity ETF, FXI, is turning positive, let's take ... [...]

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An August High As Option Speculation Ramps Up

2018-09-05 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Summer highStocks ended August at their highest monthly close in at least 36 months. A new high in August has preceded poor returns during the next 1-4 weeks as September lived up to its reputation. The S&P struggled to hold its gains, especially ... [...]

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Record Positive Divergence As We Near An August High

2018-08-23 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A near-record positive divergenceThe S&P 500’s Advance/Decline Line is more than 5% above its high from January, showing that even as the index itself has struggled to hit a new high, a majority of stocks in the index have consistently climbed ... [...]

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Leaders Become Laggards As Traders Bet On Volatility

2018-08-01 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaders become laggardsThe Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 have lost their 50-day averages after months above, a change from June when both were leading the market. Even with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials above their averages, future returns ... [...]

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Stocks Are Stuck As Turnover Explodes

2018-07-06 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stuck exactly in the middleThe S&P ended its first half stuck exactly at the midpoint of its year-to-date high and low.It’s more typical for stocks to be near the upper or lower end of their range by mid-year. Similar years led to weak returns over ... [...]

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Emerging Market's Negative Surprises Even As Nasdaq Hits June High

2018-06-15 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Emerging disappointmentEconomic surprises in emerging markets have been consistently, and increasingly, negative.That has led to mostly poor returns in emerging market stocks and currencies. It has been better for emerging market bonds (in ... [...]

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Bonds And Consumer Staples Are Battered As Stocks Rebound From Bad Start To Year

2018-05-04 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds have been batteredA total bond market index has suffered one of its worst declines in decades since the peak last September. It has rallied during less than 1/3 of all weeks over the past 8 months, the worst stretch of selling in 40 ... [...]

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Industrials Sink As Markets Head Into Worst Six Months

2018-05-01 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Making stuff isn’t paying offIndustrials stocks that “make stuff” have struggled and just hit a 100-day low.The S&P 500 is still hanging above its long-term 200-day average, but the lag in Industrials is a concern. Over the past 20 years, a new low ... [...]

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Seasonal Overview

2018-05-01 | Jason Goepfert

As we head into a new month, it's always interesting to take a look to see if there are any consistent tendencies among the markets and sectors we watch. Outside of commodity contracts, the concept of seasonality is iffy, especially in recent decades. So for many stock indexes and even sectors, ... [...]

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Starting Position Of Worst Six Months As Smart Money Buys "Stuff"

2018-04-30 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Worst six months with a bad startThe end of April means that stocks enter the “worst six months” period. Being invested in stocks only during the May – October period resulted in almost no gain since 1950.When the S&P was down YTD through April, ... [...]

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SPY's Red Monday Leaves An Island And Death Crosses

2018-03-20 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A red bull market MondayBull markets sometimes suffer heavy selling following weekend news events, but even so, Monday was severe. It ranked in the bottom 3.5% of all bull market Monday’s since the inception of the popular SPY fund.Other times it ... [...]

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High-Yield Pessimism Hits Other Assets

2018-02-10 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Heavy selling in high-yieldMost of the measures we track for the high-yield bond market are getting stretched. This week, there was some of the most indiscriminate selling in over a decade.Future returns have been very positive after similar ... [...]

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Buying Climaxes As Small Traders Buy But Futures Gap Down

2018-02-05 | Jason Goepfert

As we head into the new week, we're seeing the selling pressure from Friday bleed over, which is what has usually happened according to the type of behavior we went over in Friday's report.Over the weekend, a couple of indicators showed notable readings. The number of buying climaxes among S&P ... [...]

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January's Prediction Record, Soaring Materials And The "Not Too Hot" Streak

2018-01-08 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So goes January…or AugustA popular rule of thumb suggests that how stocks start a New Year means something for the full year. It correctly predicts the return over the next year about 60% of the time.That’s likely a statistical fluke, and other ... [...]

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No Negative Surprises As Indexes Hit Highs

2017-12-18 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No negative surprisesEvery major Economic Surprise Index across the world is now positive. From the U.S. to China, Europe to Emerging Markets, all regions have had economic reports that have exceeded economists’ expectations.When we’ve had such ... [...]

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Seasonality, Utilities, and Junk

2017-11-14 | Jason Goepfert

For those who don’t follow the premium Twitter account, which you have access to if you’re receiving this message, following are some of the studies and indicators that have been posted over the last couple of days. If you’d like to follow the Twitter account, please request to follow ... [...]

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Holiday Trading

2017-04-13 | Jason Goepfert

Index futures are looking a bit weak this morning, which is unusual on the day before an exchange holiday. There is an upward drift to these days and volatility tends to be lower. Perhaps there is a heightened concern as we head into a long weekend due to a religious holiday.Whatever the reason, ... [...]

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Another Jobs Report Gap

2017-03-10 | Jason Goepfert

The Nonfarm Payroll report came in better than expected, and even better than that, the consensus knee-jerk analysis is that it was good enough to show growth, but not so good as to raise the probability of more severe rate increases.Whether that's actually the reason or not, stock futures are ... [...]

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Gap Opens On Nonfarm Payroll Day

2017-02-03 | Jason Goepfert

With a (mostly) better-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, stock futures spiked higher and are estimated to open about 0.4% higher than yesterday's close.We noted yesterday that the NFP report has a habit of occurring near market inflection points when stock prices are at/near a price ... [...]

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Large Gap On First Session

2017-01-03 | Jason Goepfert

In the report on Thursday, we took a look at other times that stocks sunk to a two-week low in the last sessions of the year. The sample size was woefully small, but almost every one of those times, stocks rallied to start the New Year. Looks like that's going to continue.The S&P 500 is poised ... [...]

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Pre-FOMC Strength

2016-12-13 | Jason Goepfert

As traders enter into the pre-FOMC bullish malaise that has set in for years, stocks are drifting higher ahead of the open. It has become de rigueur to simply buy and hold for a day or two ahead of the pronouncement on interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which will happen tomorrow ... [...]

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December Tends To Peak...Now

2016-12-08 | Jason Goepfert

In the last couple of reports, we've touched on the fact that the spread between Smart and Dumb Money Confidence is at a level that has preceded flat market returns at best over the short- to medium-term.Same goes for the percentage of our indicators showing an optimistic vs pessimistic extreme, ... [...]

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Thanksgiving Bias After A Rally

2016-11-18 | Jason Goepfert

In the summary section of recent reports, I've noted that whatever bearish implications are out there at the moment (such as a severely split market between winners and losers) are facing a headwind as we head into the positive seasonal stretch ahead of Thanksgiving.The holiday has seen a ... [...]

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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

2016-11-10 | Jason Goepfert

As investors sort through the large moves made across markets and sectors following the election, the knee-jerk reaction among traders was that there would be clear winners and losers based on a change in administration, and some of the moves were extreme.Knee-jerk reactions are often misleading ... [...]

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Big Gains Ahead Of Elections

2016-11-07 | Jason Goepfert

Markets are reacting strongly to the latest twist in the presidential election, and thankfully (hopefully) we will be less subject to headline risk like this after Tuesday's session.Trying to derive any historical precedent from gaps like Monday's is fruitless. It is purely headline-driven and ... [...]

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3-Month Lows In November

2016-11-01 | Jason Goepfert

As stocks continue to sell off into the afternoon, the S&P 500 is in danger of doing something it hasn't done in four years - close at a multi-month low in November.Most of us have heard about how November through April is the most seasonally positive time of the year, and we're already passed ... [...]

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Seasonality And Sentiment Screen

2016-10-04 | Jason Goepfert

Near the beginning of each month, we try to run a Seasonality and Sentiment screen, which takes a look at the commodities and ETFs we track that have a tendency to rise (or fall) this month as well have a current Optimism Index reading that's near an extreme.Among ETFs, it's clear that ... [...]

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Negative Bias In Weeks Following FOMC

2016-09-21 | Jason Goepfert

In yesterday's report, we noted that there hasn't been any notable pattern surrounding trading around recent FOMC meetings, other than a mild drift higher before the announcement and then volatility (both ways) afterward. We're seeing that pattern again so far today with modest gains in ... [...]

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Friday-Monday Selling

2016-09-12 | Jason Goepfert

With some early selling pressure this morning, futures are indicating a gap down opening for the major stock indexes.Follow-through from heavy selling on Friday is not unusual, but not consistent enough that it was "predictable" on Friday. We've often discussed the pattern following ... [...]

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Positive Markets On Nonfarm Payroll Miss

2016-09-02 | Jason Goepfert

Even though the Nonfarm Payroll report (NFP) missed expectations, traders are responding in a positive way, or at least "positive" in the traditional sense. Stocks gapped up, gold up, and bonds down.Let's take a look for other times the report missed expectations and yet stocks and gold gapped ... [...]

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Gapping To A New High

2016-07-11 | Jason Goepfert

Some Monday morning optimism is pushing the futures to new heights. While backing off a bit, the S&P 500 contract is at or close opening above its prior all-time record high close.Let's go back to the inception of the futures and look at what happened the other times it opened up at least 0.25% ... [...]

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S&P Nearing A New High On Nonfarm Payroll Day

2016-07-08 | Jason Goepfert

There is a constantly changing dynamic in markets regarding whether good news should be taken as good news (growing economy) or bad news (Fed is more likely to hike). Just when traders think they have it figured out, sentiment changes.Today the good news of better-than-expected payrolls is being ... [...]

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VIX Drops With S&P; Friday-Monday Declines

2016-06-27 | Jason Goepfert

We've been asked quite a bit about the VIX today. It's currently down more than 7% despite the S&P being lower by nearly 2%. There is a strong inverse correlation between the VIX and S&P. On average when the S&P is down by more than 2%, the VIX is higher by 15%.So clearly today's move is highly ... [...]

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A Gap Down Monday

2016-06-27 | Jason Goepfert

Stock futures have taken a turn lower and it looks like we'll be seeing a gap down of last least 0.5% before the open on Monday, though that could easily change with such volatile conditions.If we do, it will be the 16th time since 1982 that stocks have gapped down at least 0.5% the day after a ... [...]

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The Headwind From Option Expiration

2016-06-17 | Jason Goepfert

Seasonal tendencies in markets get quite a bit of attention and mostly it's due to interesting, but spurious, patterns found by combing through years of data trying to find any type of edge.Calendar-based influences made a lot more sense in prior decades, and sometimes when there are structural ... [...]

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Market Rising Into Memorial Day

2016-05-27 | Jason Goepfert

As we prepare to recognize the sacrifices of the soldiers who perished protecting our country, stocks have steadily moved higher on summer-type trading volume. Many have already left trading desks to get a head-start on the long weekend.Behavior like this most often leads to a dip once traders ... [...]

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US Dollar Reversals Show A Mixed Record

2016-05-03 | Jason Goepfert

One of the big stories today is in the US Dollar, which is reversing strongly from what had been a new 52-week low:That looks great on a chart, and sentiment on the dollar is poor. Traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds are among the least-invested in a strong dollar in years:That's helping ... [...]

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Combining Seasonality With Sentiment

2016-04-04 | Jason Goepfert

At the beginning of each month we like to take a look at upcoming seasonal influences and see if there might be some opportunities for markets that tend to rise this time of year and might be seeing a sentiment extreme at the same time.Last month, it looked good for several commodities like ... [...]

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Gapping Before The Holiday

2016-03-24 | Jason Goepfert

The trading session before Good Friday tends to be positive (less so in March) but the futures are indicating a relatively large gap down open of more than 0.5%.It's unusual to see a largish gap down before a holiday, because volatility tends to be lower as many traders have left early and there ... [...]

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Combining Seasonality With Sentiment

2016-03-09 | Jason Goepfert

As we near the middle of the month, it's interesting to note that several markets are bucking their typical seasonal patterns.Seasonality is a minor consideration, especially in stocks, but it's worth checking to see if there are any especially consistent patterns or months that tend to generate ... [...]

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Gapping Up On Nonfarm Payrolls

2016-03-04 | Jason Goepfert

Stock futures are indicated to gap open at least 0.5% as the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) number exceeded estimates, and for the moment, traders are taking that as a good sign. It could change dramatically before the actual open.We've often discussed in the past how extreme reactions to the NFP number ... [...]

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Optimism Flat As Buying Surrounds Holiday Break

2016-02-16 | Jason Goepfert

With stocks staging another impressive rally, a few of our shorter-term indicators are moving to optimistic extremes, but not as many as we'd think.Using preliminary pre-close data, here is what our main short-term guides look like:The Optimism Index is about where it was on Friday, and the Risk ... [...]

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New-Month Gap Down After A Big Surge

2016-02-01 | Jason Goepfert

Stocks are backing off after the best gain in months on Friday. Optimism had reached the highest level in months as well, and when we see big gains like that in the context of a downtrend, high optimism tends to lead to sub-par short-term returns.Futures are pricing in a gap down of about -0.5%. ... [...]

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A Big Month-End Rally Day

2016-01-29 | Jason Goepfert

Stocks have been pushing consistently higher all day, a change in character from what we have been seeing this year. It is further confirmation of the medium-term positives we've been discussing in the Daily Report.A big gain to end the month has often led to follow-through during the first few ... [...]

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Stocks Hitting A Low On Monday

2016-01-11 | Jason Goepfert

The major equity indexes are looking at another loss today, after a rough week last week.This brings up the possibility of the Turnaround Tuesday phenomenon, which is related to the tendencies noted earlier about markets more frequently bottoming on Monday/Tuesday than other days of the ... [...]

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Bad Start

2016-01-04 | Jason Goepfert

It's ugly out there this morning with almost anything equity-related indicated to open down 1% or more.Patterns and stats are likely useless at the moment. Traders and investors are going to be scrambling to adjust after a rough year for many in 2015. Nobody wants to start the year with a big ... [...]

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Seasonal Mean-Reversion Into The New Year

2015-12-30 | Jason Goepfert

When people discuss seasonality, it is usually in terms of how often, and by how much, the general stock market rallies or declines during certain times of the year.Those effects have mostly deteriorated over the years as they have become more well-known, but there are still pockets of ... [...]

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Most Active ETF Performance During Santa Rally

2015-12-24 | Jason Goepfert

We all know that stocks, in general, tend to rise during the last week(s) of a year through the first few sessions of the New Year. But what about other markets?Seasonality is a tricky thing. It's easy to see past performance, but there is some game theory involved as well. If everyone knows ... [...]

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Consecutive 1% Losses In Back Half Of December

2015-12-18 | Jason Goepfert

This has been a tough December for stocks. There have been unusually large gap down opens, and now we're on track for back-to-back 1% losses (it's still early, so surely we could reverse before the close).Assuming stocks don't recover this afternoon, this would be the first time since 2007 that ... [...]

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S&P Gapping Down In December

2015-12-08 | Jason Goepfert

Here's an interesting tidbit. The S&P 500 is currently indicated to open more than 1% below where it closed on Monday.Opening gaps are often suggested to be "dumb money" traders reacting to overnight news events. For the most part, historical studies support that characterization.Big negative ... [...]

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Post-Thanksgiving Bump

2015-11-30 | Jason Goepfert

Futures are currently indicating a gap up open for the S&P 500.Returns on the Monday following the holiday have been lackluster, especially when there was a gap up open.Table 1 shows returns for SPY when it gapped up by any amount on the open on Monday following Thanksgiving. From the open to ... [...]

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