Posts tagged as Indicators


Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks gyrate ahead of what is likely to be an exodus of traders from their screens over the next couple of sessions.Stocks Down, Bonds UpAugust has been a bad month for stocks and wonderful one for bonds, leading to one of the widest divergences between them ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Social Pessimism, Big Drops, Brazil Breadth, Ag Bears

2019-08-27 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we head into what is likely going to be one of the slowest-moving periods of the year.Socially AwkwardDepending on who you ask and who you follow, Twitter is either an amazing resource to find real-time ideas and collaboration among some of the smartest ... [...]

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A Volatile, But Sound, Month

2019-08-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Quite A MonthWe seem to be on track for another whipsaw, as markets try to recover from conflicting messages over the weekend, following a rocky end to the ...

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S&P 500 after Economic Uncertainty 5-day avg > 250, w/in 10% of high

2019-08-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Timing A Move Out Of Stocks, As They Whip Around And Bond Spreads Blow Out

2019-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond blowoutThe riskiest segment of the corporate bond market has been suffering, while safer bonds have been less of a focus for sellers.That raises the ...

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Financials As A Sick Canary

2019-08-16 | Jason Goepfert


Financial correctionLess than three weeks ago, financial stocks within the S&P 500 were within spitting distance of a fresh 52-week high. Now they’re mired in a correction, having pulled back more than 10% from their high.That’s a quick turnaround, which always worries investors. This was not a ... [...]

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Friday Color - Risk Off, Options Anxiety, Many Lows, Big MOVE, Sector Extremes

2019-08-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as bulls try to enjoy a summer Friday.AnxiousSigns of nervousness are everywhere. Over the past couple of days, we've seen a spike in pessimistic extremes, so there's no shortage of examples. Troy pointed out several aggregate sentiment gauges (Dumb Money, CNN ... [...]

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One Of These Curves Is Not Like The Others

2019-08-15 | Jason Goepfert


Bulls yieldStocks plunged on Wednesday, with the most common excuse being renewed fears of recession due to a further inversion in the Treasury yield curve. Between various maturities, 60% of the curve is now inverted. That preceded a prompt and severe drop in stocks in 2000, but the three other ... [...]

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A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash

2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders try to put Monday's carnage behind them.Island TimeIt's still early, of course, but stocks are making a valiant attempt to carve out an "island" bottom. This happens when traders panic and force an unfilled gap to the downside (Monday in our current ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

2019-07-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on another day that's finding buyers not sticking around.Gold HedgeBloomberg notes that per Goldman Sachs, investors may be better off hedging against uncertainty with the yen than with gold. That's based on how pricey each of them are according to the ... [...]

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200 Reasons Why The Hindenburg Omen Matters

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


Warning signsFor the first time since October 2018, there are hints of trouble brewing beneath the market. While major indexes have been at or near all-time highs, under the surface there are more and more stocks losing momentum, and there has been a split with many securities at 52-week highs ... [...]

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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


I won't be publishing a Daily Report this afternoon, so this post is being sent as a Bulletin to all users. This is similar to what is included in the premium notes published most days.Bully BullyEven after a choppy week, the smallest of options traders have sustained their belief in a continued ... [...]

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An Economic Indicator Is Breaking Out - Why That's Bad For Gold Bugs

2019-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings down, stocks upEarnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to be flat or negative from the same quarter last year. Even with the slowest growth in 3 years, stocks have been ticking to new highs.There was a hint of “whistling past the graveyard” in those rallies, as the S&P ended up ... [...]

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Baltic Dry Index Breakout To New Highs

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


The Baltic Dry Index has broken out to a new multi-year high, typically assumed to be a positive sign of global economic growth. The more demand there is for shipping, the more the shippers can charge to transport goods.In reality, it's not that clear, and has been an inconsistent indicators for ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to position themselves ahead of a deluge of earnings.Earnings ParadeMuch is being made of the potential slowdown in earnings as companies begin to report in earnest over the next couple of weeks. We've seen in years past that "earnings ... [...]

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New Highs Ahead? Leveraged Bets Are Counting On It

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


Funds buy inWe saw last month that equity hedge funds apparently have a low exposure to stocks on a longer time frame. We also follow macro and commodity-trading funds, which tend to be more aggressive, leveraged, and trend-following with a shorter time frame. And they have suddenly seen the ... [...]

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From Risk-On To Risk-Off In Near-Record Time

2019-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


Risk-on to risk-off in a monthIn April, investors were showing extreme risk-on behavior, according to their eagerness to buy some markets over others. Barely a month later, that has cycled to extreme risk-off behavior.The first risk-off reading following risk-on behavior has usually led to a ... [...]

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Monday Color - Cycle Peak, De-Risking, Silver, Breadth Extremes

2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another day failing to hold a rally.Mixed MessagesDepending on the data set, or even on the day, the fundamental picture for markets looks just as muddled as the technical one. One of the biggest worries is that the economy may be tipping into recession, ... [...]

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A Sign Of Irrational Pessimism

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


Irrational pessimismIndividual investors keep getting more pessimistic. While stocks have had a bad week, investors’ pessimism is extremely high given the mild pullback in stocks.There haven’t been many times investors were as negative as they are now when the S&P was still sitting within 5% of ... [...]

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Stock/Bond Ratio Falls Below -2

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


Stocks and bonds do not have a consistent correlation, but they do tend to move within relatively stable bands around a long-term moving average. When one market or the other moves far outside the norm, markets tend to snap back.We're seeing that now, as the Stock/Bond Ratio has plunged below -2 ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Junk Flow, Stocks vs Bonds, Anxiety Alerts, Sector Breadth

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a lackluster rally attempt day.Fleeing JunkInvestors have pulled more than $1.7 billion from the two primary high-yield (junk) bond funds, HYG and JNK, over the past two sessions. That's tied for the 3rd-most outflow in their history of a little over a ... [...]

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Copper And Margin Debt Not What They Seem

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Copper bowled overCopper prices have dropped nearly 10% from their peak, which is unnerving those investors who trust it as a leading indicator for global demand.As a predictor for future stock returns, declines like this have been mixed, with usually positive returns. For copper itself, it ... [...]

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A Perfect Technical Buy Signal

2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings approach peakSince last fall, earnings among S&P 500 companies have been in a pullback. A recent trend higher has nearly erased that and they’re closer to their peak than they’ve been in six months.After other times earnings near their peak after several months, stocks performed well.A ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

2019-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Momentum ShiftMarketwatch notes that there has been a long-term momentum shift in stocks that has had an unerring ability to lead to higher prices. This last happened in 2016, according to a popular technical indicator.If ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Gap Fills, Bull Drops, Social Pessimists

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this gap-fill day.ClosureBuyers stepped in big-time and have pushed stocks above where they were before the large gap down on Monday. This is a quick turnaround - it usually takes longer for SPY to close a downside gap that large.When it does so quickly, ... [...]

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IPO Fervor Returns

2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


Overseas out, bonds inNear the end of April, investors fled non-U.S. equity funds, with the 2nd-largest outflow in five years. That has been a good contrary indicator in the past.At the same time, they moved more into bonds, with other measures confirming the increasingly consensus sentiment ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk

2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Dollar BetsYesterday's report noted the multi-year breakout in the dollar, which has had a tendency to pull back most of the time over the next 2-6 months. The long-term trend has been about flat, so breakouts have had a tendency to be unsustainable ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.This Little Piggy Goes To MarketHog futures have soared. Corn has not. The ratio between the two is now at an extreme.There are a large number of factors that go into the price gyrations of both markets, but historically there has been a loose ... [...]

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Don't Be A (Knee) Jerk

2019-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


There is a long history of using anecdotal "evidence" as a contrary indicator. Through the decades, traders have used the enthusiasm of shoeshine boys, taxi cab drivers, and cocktail party conversations as their basis that sentiment had reached an extreme. "You know it's time to sell when ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Breadth ReviewThe jump on Monday triggered a number of new extremes. Every material stock rose above their 10-day moving averages, which we don't see too often. If we add some context and look for times it triggered when XLB rose above a declining ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.FOMC ReversalStocks are trying to fully reverse any weakness from earlier this week. If SPY closes at a new high for this move, it would be the first time traders pushed it to at least a 100-day high the day following a FOMC meeting since 2014. ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far ahead of the FOMC craziness.Tweeps Loving ChinaSocial sentiment among Twitter users has become very optimistic over the past month. The 20-day average of Social Sentiment on FXI has dropped below 1, meaning that on an average day, there have been more ... [...]

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No Pessimism Even As Small-Caps Struggle

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


No pessimismOn Monday, the last of our core indicators that was showing a hint of pessimism dropped off. At the same time, 40% of them were showing optimism. The last two times that happened, the S&P formed a kind of rounded peak.Since 1999, many of the positive returns were clustered in 2017, a ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.The VIX closed under 15 for the first time in months on Wednesday. That has rarely led to further losses over the next several weeks.Ignore the latest date on the tables, it should read “2019-02-15”. The rising volatility didn’t necessarily ... [...]

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Holding The Trend; Retail Investors Are Still Active

2019-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Holding the trendAs noted by Investor’s Business Daily, the S&P 500 has managed to climb back above its widely-watched 50-day moving average and hold above it for a week straight. This ends a streak of more than 70 days without being able to do so, ... [...]

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Breadth Thrust From The Low; Record Stock And Bond Fund Outflows

2019-01-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get me inDuring rally attempts in November and December, one worry was that there were no strong thrusts in breadth. Both failed. During this latest rally, there have been two such days, so strong that there are few historical precedents.Maybe it’s ... [...]

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Studying The Studies

2018-12-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Studying the studiesLike last year, we take an objective look at the studies posted to the site in 2018. Using a conservative estimate of their expected value, we can see that it still makes sense to observe the markets in this way. When we ... [...]

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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


The release of some of the weekly data we follow has confirmed just how extreme last week’s activity moved sentiment. I will be travelling for the holiday, so no end-of-day report will be published.One of the most reliable gauges we have is showing an extreme like we’ve rarely seen. When we ... [...]

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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ... [...]

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Jobless Claims Find Bottom; Margin Debt Declines

2018-11-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bottom in jobless claimsAfter hitting a multi-year low, jobless claims have hit a 6-month high and are above a 52-week average.That tends to lead to a rise in the unemployment rate, an input to many recession models. But a nascent uptrend in ... [...]

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A Weak Retracement; A Dollar Milestone

2018-11-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A weak retracementAt its high point of the bounce during the past two weeks, the S&P never managed to retrace more than 61.8% of its pullback from the September peak.It has now started to fail and fall back to the lower end of its range. While ... [...]

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Bear Market In Stocks; Small-Cap Stumbles

2018-11-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bear market in stocksWhile the major indexes are far from a 20% decline, many S&P 500 components have declined more. At the depths of the decline in October, more than 40% of the S&P reached bear market territory.That often served as a low point ... [...]

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Post-Election Jump; No More Oversold Tailwind

2018-11-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Election excitementFollowing the midterm election, the S&P 500 jumped more than 1%, and sector performance showed a strong risk-on bias.It was the best post-election day rally for the S&P 500 since 1982, which is the only one (midterm or ... [...]

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V-Shaped Bounces And Explosion In Hedging

2018-10-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.V-shaped probabilityFollowing declines like the past month, v-shaped bounces were common. Almost 40% of the precedents formed a bottom within a couple of sessions. While some short-term volatility was normal, all but a few of the precedents ended ... [...]

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Quick Change In Character; Smart Money Steps In; Emerging Stocks Rebound

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A quick change in characterThe S&P went from 52-week high to below its 200-day average in only 3 weeks. That ended a streak of more than six months above its 200-day average. Other times it underwent a quick change in character, from a 52-week high ... [...]

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Hedging Explodes; Average Days Before Bottoming

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


The most difficult part of any decline is determining if the decline was enough to satisfy what had been negative conditions prior to the losses, and whether the probabilities favor a v-shaped bounce or a more sustained testing phase.There were plenty of extremes generated last week, made even ... [...]

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Dow Ignores Majority, IPO Appetite Wanes

2018-10-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow ignores the majorityThe Dow Industrials have rallied to new highs, but most stocks are in bear markets.More than half of NYSE stocks are below their 200-day averages, a rare disparity on days when the Dow has been at its highest level in a year ... [...]

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Palladium Rally Not Helping Autos As Warnings Keep Mounting

2018-09-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Autos sink despite a “should be” good signThe S&P 500 Auto sector has sunk to a 52-week low despite strong palladium prices, which are at their highest in months.While that’s usually interpreted as a good sign for the sector, it was not, and mostly ... [...]

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Backtesting Individual Stock Sentiment with the sentimenTrader Backtesting engine

2018-06-25 | Eric Brown


One of the offerings that we have within the sentimenTrader service is the ability to backtest sentiment indicators against indexes and ETF's.  This feature has proven to be fairly popular among our users since we implemented it.   One of the features requested by users is the ability to ... [...]

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Mutual Fund Cash Sinks Along With Risk Appetite

2018-06-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As rates rise, fund managers shrugMutual fund managers continue to hold a near-record low level of cash relative to other assets. A surge in short-term interest rates has not tempted them to hold more of a cash cushion. They are now holding 2.5% ... [...]

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Smart Money / Dumb Money Spread Goes Negative As Gold Falls

2018-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Spread between Smart/Dumb Money shrinksThe spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is negative for the first time in months.By the time it has inverted after other long periods above zero, stocks struggled short-term but not long-term. ... [...]

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Indicator Comparison To Past Rallies

2018-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Indicators vs past ralliesStocks have rallied for 3 weeks off a (near) low, so we compare 24 different indicators, looking at their current reading three weeks into a rally versus where they were three weeks into 42 other rallies. For example, Up ... [...]

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Successful Test As Pessimism Spikes

2018-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A few good daysThe S&P dropped down to challenge its February low on March 23. Since then, 3 of the last 6 sessions have been “good” with either a 1% gain or 80% up volume.Over the past 30 years, that has indicated a successful test of a low.Forget ... [...]

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