Posts tagged as Indicators


Big tech is devouring the stock market

2020-08-31 | Jason Goepfert


Big tech stocks are devouring the market, and now more than 25% of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are overbought.

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VIX Term Structure at new low

2020-08-07 | Troy Bombardia


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Investors continue to shy away from debt

2020-07-29 | Jason Goepfert


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An overbought and volatile combination

2020-06-30 | Jason Goepfert


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The 1st quarter put a wallop on household assets

2020-06-15 | Jason Goepfert


The 1st quarter decline put a near-record dent in household equity holdings as a % of total assets and as a % of GDP.

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Nothing is oversold

2020-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Farrell Sentiment indicator suggests a good year

2020-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: More economic weakness as stocks hold up

2020-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: A strong start even as economic data plunge

2020-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Leverage declines as margin debt plunges again

2020-04-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Hedge funds remain short despite rally

2020-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Financial conditions have made a strong recovery

2020-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Short-term optimism has spiked

2020-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


Over the past week, optimism on many ETFs has spiked. Our Optimism Index for SPY is the highest in 8 years.

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An overwhelming number of buy signals

2020-04-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Wall Street's record downgrade deluge

2020-04-14 | Jason Goepfert


Wall Street analysts have downgraded a record number of S&P 500 company earnings estimates.

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Signs of a thaw remain elusive

2020-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Negative energy

2020-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Signs of a thaw in the crisis

2020-03-31 | Jason Goepfert


We take a look at some indicators showing a thaw (or lack thereof) in the crisis. More and more indexes are showing stocks with MACD buy signals.

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Other than the stock market, few signs of a thaw

2020-03-30 | Jason Goepfert


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The Panic Button Has Been Pressed

2020-03-17 | Jason Goepfert


Its been several years, but the Panic Button has been pressed. The S&P 500's MACD indicator is hitting historic levels.

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Uncharted waters as Panic Button hits record

2020-03-16 | Jason Goepfert


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No appetite for risk

2020-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


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A(nother) week for the ages

2020-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


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A week for the ages

2020-02-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Smart/Dumb and indicators flip to pessimism

2020-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Warnings spike as complacency ends

2020-02-25 | Jason Goepfert


Technical warning signs have piled up over the past month. The Nasdaq 100 has relieved its overbought condition for the first time in 3 months.

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Sentiment Is Normalizing As Technical Warnings Trigger

2020-02-04 | Jason Goepfert


Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence shows sentiment is starting to normalize. The Hindenburg Omen is triggering again.

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'Big Four' Indexes Register Warnings As Sentiment Recedes

2020-02-03 | Jason Goepfert


All 'big four' equity indexes have triggered technical warning signs. Our Optimism Index for stocks is pulling back from an extreme level.

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Retail Traders Storm Back As Key Reversals Spike

2020-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


Trading activity at retail brokerages has spiked. Within the S&P 500, more than 10% of stocks suffered key reversal buying climaxes.

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ETF Traders Are Long And Leveraged; Baltic Dry Index Is Plunging

2020-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


ETF traders are piling into leveraged long funds while leaving leveraged short (inverse) funds, and the Baltic Dry Index is plunging.

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Trading With Market Studies In 2019

2019-12-30 | Jason Goepfert


Looking at quantified market studies proved effective again in 2019.Studying the studiesNear the end of the past several years, we’ve been taking some time to review studies that were closed during the year.For every study that has a solid conclusion, we track it in the Active Studies. To remain ...

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High Yield Funds' RSI Is Overbought

2019-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Breakout In "Overboughtness"

2019-11-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Overbought breakoutsThe worst environments for sentiment indicators are momentum markets. They don’t happen very often, but when they do, sentiment can get ...

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What I'm looking at - sentiment froth?, new highs expansion, Hong Kong, New Zealand

2019-11-06 | Troy Bombardia


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More Evidence Of Recession-Era Sentiment

2019-11-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Recession sentimentAnother survey of insiders at companies in the Midwest shows the kind of sentiment normally seen during and in the latter stages of a ...

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Big Money Has Never Been More Bearish

2019-10-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big Money BearsFor the first time in 20 years, the big money is betting against stocks. The latest semi-annual survey of big money managers by Barron’s showed ...

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Wednesday color - Utility surge impact on stocks/gold, breadth rollover, skittish signs, Egypt

2019-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Social Pessimism, Big Drops, Brazil Breadth, Ag Bears

2019-08-27 | Jason Goepfert


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A Volatile, But Sound, Month

2019-08-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Quite A MonthWe seem to be on track for another whipsaw, as markets try to recover from conflicting messages over the weekend, following a rocky end to the ...

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S&P 500 after Economic Uncertainty 5-day avg > 250, w/in 10% of high

2019-08-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Timing A Move Out Of Stocks, As They Whip Around And Bond Spreads Blow Out

2019-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond blowoutThe riskiest segment of the corporate bond market has been suffering, while safer bonds have been less of a focus for sellers.That raises the ...

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Financials As A Sick Canary

2019-08-16 | Jason Goepfert


Financial correctionLess than three weeks ago, financial stocks within the S&P 500 were within spitting distance of a fresh 52-week high. Now they’re mired in a correction, having pulled back more than 10% from their high.That’s a quick turnaround, which always worries investors. This was not a ...

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Friday Color - Risk Off, Options Anxiety, Many Lows, Big MOVE, Sector Extremes

2019-08-16 | Jason Goepfert


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One Of These Curves Is Not Like The Others

2019-08-15 | Jason Goepfert


Bulls yieldStocks plunged on Wednesday, with the most common excuse being renewed fears of recession due to a further inversion in the Treasury yield curve. Between various maturities, 60% of the curve is now inverted. That preceded a prompt and severe drop in stocks in 2000, but the three other ...

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A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash

2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ...

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

2019-07-23 | Jason Goepfert


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200 Reasons Why The Hindenburg Omen Matters

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


Warning signsFor the first time since October 2018, there are hints of trouble brewing beneath the market. While major indexes have been at or near all-time highs, under the surface there are more and more stocks losing momentum, and there has been a split with many securities at 52-week highs ...

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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


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An Economic Indicator Is Breaking Out - Why That's Bad For Gold Bugs

2019-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings down, stocks upEarnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to be flat or negative from the same quarter last year. Even with the slowest growth in 3 years, stocks have been ticking to new highs.There was a hint of “whistling past the graveyard” in those rallies, as the S&P ended up ...

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Baltic Dry Index Breakout To New Highs

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


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New Highs Ahead? Leveraged Bets Are Counting On It

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


Funds buy inWe saw last month that equity hedge funds apparently have a low exposure to stocks on a longer time frame. We also follow macro and commodity-trading funds, which tend to be more aggressive, leveraged, and trend-following with a shorter time frame. And they have suddenly seen the ...

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From Risk-On To Risk-Off In Near-Record Time

2019-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


Risk-on to risk-off in a monthIn April, investors were showing extreme risk-on behavior, according to their eagerness to buy some markets over others. Barely a month later, that has cycled to extreme risk-off behavior.The first risk-off reading following risk-on behavior has usually led to a ...

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Monday Color - Cycle Peak, De-Risking, Silver, Breadth Extremes

2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


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A Sign Of Irrational Pessimism

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


Irrational pessimismIndividual investors keep getting more pessimistic. While stocks have had a bad week, investors’ pessimism is extremely high given the mild pullback in stocks.There haven’t been many times investors were as negative as they are now when the S&P was still sitting within 5% of ...

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Stock/Bond Ratio Falls Below -2

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Color - Junk Flow, Stocks vs Bonds, Anxiety Alerts, Sector Breadth

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Copper And Margin Debt Not What They Seem

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Copper bowled overCopper prices have dropped nearly 10% from their peak, which is unnerving those investors who trust it as a leading indicator for global demand.As a predictor for future stock returns, declines like this have been mixed, with usually positive returns. For copper itself, it ...

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A Perfect Technical Buy Signal

2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings approach peakSince last fall, earnings among S&P 500 companies have been in a pullback. A recent trend higher has nearly erased that and they’re closer to their peak than they’ve been in six months.After other times earnings near their peak after several months, stocks performed well.A ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

2019-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color - Gap Fills, Bull Drops, Social Pessimists

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


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IPO Fervor Returns

2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


Overseas out, bonds inNear the end of April, investors fled non-U.S. equity funds, with the 2nd-largest outflow in five years. That has been a good contrary indicator in the past.At the same time, they moved more into bonds, with other measures confirming the increasingly consensus sentiment ...

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Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk

2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Don't Be A (Knee) Jerk

2019-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


There is a long history of using anecdotal "evidence" as a contrary indicator. Through the decades, traders have used the enthusiasm of shoeshine boys, taxi cab drivers, and cocktail party conversations as their basis that sentiment had reached an extreme. "You know it's time to sell when ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


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No Pessimism Even As Small-Caps Struggle

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


No pessimismOn Monday, the last of our core indicators that was showing a hint of pessimism dropped off. At the same time, 40% of them were showing optimism. The last two times that happened, the S&P formed a kind of rounded peak.Since 1999, many of the positive returns were clustered in 2017, a ...

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Holding The Trend; Retail Investors Are Still Active

2019-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Holding the trendAs noted by Investor’s Business Daily, the S&P 500 has managed to climb back above its widely-watched 50-day moving average and hold above it for a week straight. This ends a streak of more than 70 days without being able to do so, ...

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Breadth Thrust From The Low; Record Stock And Bond Fund Outflows

2019-01-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get me inDuring rally attempts in November and December, one worry was that there were no strong thrusts in breadth. Both failed. During this latest rally, there have been two such days, so strong that there are few historical precedents.Maybe it’s ...

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Studying The Studies

2018-12-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Studying the studiesLike last year, we take an objective look at the studies posted to the site in 2018. Using a conservative estimate of their expected value, we can see that it still makes sense to observe the markets in this way. When we ...

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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ...

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Jobless Claims Find Bottom; Margin Debt Declines

2018-11-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bottom in jobless claimsAfter hitting a multi-year low, jobless claims have hit a 6-month high and are above a 52-week average.That tends to lead to a rise in the unemployment rate, an input to many recession models. But a nascent uptrend in ...

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A Weak Retracement; A Dollar Milestone

2018-11-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A weak retracementAt its high point of the bounce during the past two weeks, the S&P never managed to retrace more than 61.8% of its pullback from the September peak.It has now started to fail and fall back to the lower end of its range. While ...

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Bear Market In Stocks; Small-Cap Stumbles

2018-11-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bear market in stocksWhile the major indexes are far from a 20% decline, many S&P 500 components have declined more. At the depths of the decline in October, more than 40% of the S&P reached bear market territory.That often served as a low point ...

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Post-Election Jump; No More Oversold Tailwind

2018-11-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Election excitementFollowing the midterm election, the S&P 500 jumped more than 1%, and sector performance showed a strong risk-on bias.It was the best post-election day rally for the S&P 500 since 1982, which is the only one (midterm or ...

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V-Shaped Bounces And Explosion In Hedging

2018-10-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.V-shaped probabilityFollowing declines like the past month, v-shaped bounces were common. Almost 40% of the precedents formed a bottom within a couple of sessions. While some short-term volatility was normal, all but a few of the precedents ended ...

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Quick Change In Character; Smart Money Steps In; Emerging Stocks Rebound

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A quick change in characterThe S&P went from 52-week high to below its 200-day average in only 3 weeks. That ended a streak of more than six months above its 200-day average. Other times it underwent a quick change in character, from a 52-week high ...

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Hedging Explodes; Average Days Before Bottoming

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Dow Ignores Majority, IPO Appetite Wanes

2018-10-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow ignores the majorityThe Dow Industrials have rallied to new highs, but most stocks are in bear markets.More than half of NYSE stocks are below their 200-day averages, a rare disparity on days when the Dow has been at its highest level in a year ...

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Palladium Rally Not Helping Autos As Warnings Keep Mounting

2018-09-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Autos sink despite a “should be” good signThe S&P 500 Auto sector has sunk to a 52-week low despite strong palladium prices, which are at their highest in months.While that’s usually interpreted as a good sign for the sector, it was not, and mostly ...

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Backtesting Individual Stock Sentiment with the sentimenTrader Backtesting engine

2018-06-25 | Eric Brown


One of the offerings that we have within the sentimenTrader service is the ability to backtest sentiment indicators against indexes and ETF's.  This feature has proven to be fairly popular among our users since we implemented it.   One of the features requested by users is the ability to ...

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Mutual Fund Cash Sinks Along With Risk Appetite

2018-06-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As rates rise, fund managers shrugMutual fund managers continue to hold a near-record low level of cash relative to other assets. A surge in short-term interest rates has not tempted them to hold more of a cash cushion. They are now holding 2.5% ...

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Smart Money / Dumb Money Spread Goes Negative As Gold Falls

2018-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Spread between Smart/Dumb Money shrinksThe spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is negative for the first time in months.By the time it has inverted after other long periods above zero, stocks struggled short-term but not long-term. ...

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Indicator Comparison To Past Rallies

2018-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Indicators vs past ralliesStocks have rallied for 3 weeks off a (near) low, so we compare 24 different indicators, looking at their current reading three weeks into a rally versus where they were three weeks into 42 other rallies. For example, Up ...

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Successful Test As Pessimism Spikes

2018-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A few good daysThe S&P dropped down to challenge its February low on March 23. Since then, 3 of the last 6 sessions have been “good” with either a 1% gain or 80% up volume.Over the past 30 years, that has indicated a successful test of a low.Forget ...

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