Posts tagged as Fundamentals

Hard Economic Releases Have Been Uber Disappointing

According to Bloomberg data, hard economic releases have greatly disappointed economists lately, ending a long streak of positive surprises.

Read More ...

---

Hard Economic Releases Keep Disappointing the Experts

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The Recession Is Officially Over (But Don't Tell Growth Stocks)

The NBER has declared an end to the 2020 recession in the U.S. but that doesn't necessarily mean that the coast is clear.

Read More ...

---

Growth Stocks Don't Like the Ends of Recessions

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

There Has Never Been a Better Time to Lose Money

Due to seemingly unlimited investor appetite, there has been a surge in secondary share issuance by nonprofitable companies.

Read More ...

---

A Record Glut of Shares from Money Losers

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Excess Liquidity Is Draining From the Market

With money flowing out of financial assets and into productive ones, Excess Liquidity is draining from the market.

Read More ...

---

Excess Liquidity is Being Wrung Out

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

A Worrisome - and Little Known - Inflationary Warning Sign

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

ISM New Orders to Prices Paid Spread

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Yield Fears Are Driving Stocks, And That's Bad for Gold

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What can we learn when the grocery bill goes up

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The Last Time This Happened? March 2000.

For the first time in at least 50 years, the S&P 500's inflation adjusted earnings and dividend yield is close to turning negative.

Read More ...

---

The S&P's Inflation Adjusted Yield Just Plunged to a Record Low

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

This Fundamental Indicator Just Ended a Record Positive Streak

For the first time in more than a year, economic reports have started to disappoint economists. That ends the longest streak in 20 years.

Read More ...

---

Positive Economic Surprises Come to an End

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Don't be worried about inflation until this happens

Inflation is on almost every investor's mind right now, and there is a precise level of rising prices when stocks do best.

Read More ...

---

This combination of valuation + volatility has only been seen a few other times

The ratio of the S&P 500's price / earnings multiple and the VIX "fear gauge" has rarely been higher.

Read More ...

---

Highly valued and with few consequences

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

When it's time to switch into Consumer Staples

Over time, there has been an edge in switching between consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors based on the rate of inflation.

Read More ...

---

A very expensive earnings season

As we head into Q1 earnings season, valuations are historically high and Wall Street has high expectations.

Read More ...

---

Wall Street is upgrading an already expensive earnings season

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Credit investors are getting a bit nervous

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Where inflation is and what it means

While concerns about inflation are raging, an objective model shows that in the current regime, stocks have done just fine.

Read More ...

---

What You Need to Know About Inflation (Part III)

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The yield curve has done this only 3 other times

The 2-year / 10-year Treasury yield curve has cycled from negative to above 110 basis points for the 4th time in 30 years.

Read More ...

---

Bending the curve

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The rise in rates reaches an extreme level

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

A new high on weaker participation

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

A low short base just when markets need it most

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

When the ducks are quacking

Bankers are capitalizing on a prime opportunity, facilitating a record amount of share issuance via IPOs and secondary offerings.

Read More ...

---

Companies, and bankers, satisfy an eager market

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Industrial stocks face headwinds

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

An extreme record in mild valuations

There is now a 40-year high in the percentage of S&P 500 companies that are mildly, moderately, or even severely overvalued.

Read More ...

---

A new record in severely overvalued companies

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Why the "smart money" is about to get flattened

Fund managers have never been more confident that the Treasury yield curve will steepen.

Read More ...

---

The probability of a new bear market is rising, but...

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The value thesis

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Recovering leading indicators and sentiment

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Rebounding housing and commodities

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

For the 1st time in months, oil rigs come back online

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Futures traders' odd position in Treasuries

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Macro Index rebound

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Energy bosses are cutting dividends, and workers

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Rebounding Consumer Confidence

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Emerging market surprises gain momentum

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Housing rebound

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Rebounding economic activity

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

German economic rebound

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Copper and interest rates aren't doing what they're supposed to do

The price of copper has soared while 10-year Treasury yields stay flat. This is a big change from their historical relationship.

Read More ...

---

Metals and bonds give different picture as excess liquidity spikes

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

ISM recovery

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Dollar falls into correction for the first time in years

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

U.S. stocks are valued more than almost half of global economic output

The market capitalization of U.S. stocks is larger than more than 40% of global gross domestic product (GDP), the 2nd-highest amount in 60 years.

Read More ...

---

Stocks are worth more than the whole economy

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Companies haven't been this conservative in 20 years

To preserve cash, companies have pulled back on buying back their own stock, while issuing more shares via IPOs and secondary offerings.

Read More ...

---

Companies pull back on buybacks while issuing more shares

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Earnings surprises trigger quick upgrades

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Gold breaks from its main driver

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Global economic data is improving

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Industrial production gears up

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Rebounding small business optimism

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Financials hit hard as they start to report earnings

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Why do small stocks look so expensive?

The forward price/earnings ratio for the Russell 2000 is at a 25-year high, thanks to a large number of those stocks losing money.

Read More ...

---

Nearly a third of small-caps are losing money

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Companies and Wall Street are raising outlooks

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Rebounding Consumer Confidence on both sides of the pond

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The yield curve has done this 4 times in 40 years

Based on consumer attitudes, it looks like the Treasury yield curve is entering a super-steepening cycle.

Read More ...

---

Stocks have uncoupled from the dollar

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The impact of the yield curve's potential super-steepening cycle

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The economy is expected to improve. A good sign for stocks?

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Economic recovery (continued)

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Sectors and factors depending on the election outcome

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

A rough summer suggests a change in the White House

When an incumbent Republican was up for re-election, the 100 days pre-election were usually positive if the same party held onto the office.

Read More ...

---

The next 100 days may hinge on Republicans' chances

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Improving economic data

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Weekly Wrap: Even more speculation as breadth continues to improve

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

We're officially in a recession

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Economists have become too negative

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Easing financial conditions

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Corporate executives are "feeding the ducks"

Taking advantage of a good market during an economic downturn, companies are scrambling to issue secondary shares.

Read More ...

---

What negative interest rates might mean for stocks and the dollar

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Secondary surge suggests companies are "feeding the ducks"

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Weekly Wrap: More economic weakness as stocks hold up

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Peak claims

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Macro model flips to cash

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

ISM new orders crater

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Looking backward, economic data plunge

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Surge in money growth does not have a consistent record

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Global earnings revisions

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Chicago Fed National Activity

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Financial conditions are recovering from epic plunge

Financial conditions are easing after what had been an epic plunge during March.

Read More ...

---

Weekly Wrap: Stocks keep soaring despite poor fundamentals

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Financial conditions have made a strong recovery

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Rig rout

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Worst economic data since....

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Wall Street's record downgrade deluge

Wall Street analysts have downgraded a record number of S&P 500 company earnings estimates.

Read More ...

---

First earnings season after the start of a recession, bear market

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Weekly Wrap: News flow still horrid, but the buying thrust has been historic

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Signs of a thaw remain elusive

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Sentiment recovers amid an economic plunge

Our proxy of the CNN Fear & Greed model has recovered into neutral from deep pessimism. Economic surprises have plunged, not good for the dollar.

Read More ...

---

The worst economy since...

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

"Just a bear market rally"

The perception is that this is just a bear market rally, but it has clawed back a large part of the decline. Articles about dividend suspensions have spiked.

Read More ...

---

Economic surprises suffer historic plunge

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Weekly Wrap: Initial signs of a recovery, even with weak breadth and bad economic data

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Weak economic data vs. government intervention

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Putting the "rat" in rating

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

More shocking economic data

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Price/Sales for various sectors

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Weakness in economic data

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Boom goes bust

A simulated measure of the VIX has (at least temporarily) peaked. The Yardeni Boom Bust Barometer is going bust.

Read More ...

---

The economy today is just as bad as...

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Margin debt has fallen to a multi-year low

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Other than the stock market, few signs of a thaw

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Bad surprises and the probability of a bear market

A Goldman Sachs model estimating the likelihood of a further 20% decline is on track to plunge. Economic surprises have made a historic drop.

Read More ...

---

Weekly Wrap: Historic plunge, compressed stimulus, and massive buying thrusts

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Shocking economic data

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Bear market probability is on the verge of plunging

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Valuations: price to book

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

As volatility explodes, the Equity Risk Premium hits a record low

The Equity Risk Premium has plunged to a record low as earnings haven't caught up to volatility. Volatility in Australia just hit a record high.

Read More ...

---

Equity Risk Premium back to extreme under-valuation

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

This is (and isn't) like 2008

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Valuations across sectors & countries

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - valuations, Optix, 2 week crash, volatility

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - ZEW, yield curve, USD spike, S&P's intraday range, commodities collapse

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - bullish percent, U.S. recession, historic volatility, historic overseas selling

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Fed emergency rate cut asset reactions

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - New Home Sales, sharp pullback, oversold breadth, safe haven sentiment

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Building Permits, USD, MACD buy signals

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Financial conditions have never been easier...or bubbly

The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is at a practical maximum reading. Growth stocks have surged relative to value stocks.

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - new highs, job openings, VIX, economic surprise

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market & fundamentals overview: the rally continues

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Dow earnings, German manufacturing, tech rally, shallow drawdowns, Treasuries sentiment

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - ISM, Hindenburg Omen, oil, semiconductors, China

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Leading Indicators Lag As S&P Suffers Key Reversal

The Leading Economic Indicators is showing the worst growth in years. The S&P 500 suffered a key reversal day from a high.

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - Cass Freight Index, strength of the trend, more breadth, Put/Call

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

5-Year High In Bull Markets Amid Deteriorating Fundamentals

More than 85% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day averages. There is a high and rising number of stocks with declining operating earnings.

Read More ...

---

Asset Managers Have Record Exposure As Wall Street Favors Technicals

Asset managers are net long a record amount of equity index futures. Wall Street analysts have raised price targets but not earnings estimates.

Read More ...

---

The "Energizer" Rally Keeps Going Despite Rising Jobless Claims

Smart Money and Dumb Money spread has been wide for 2 months but momentum keeps stocks rising. Continued jobless claims are rising.

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - tech vs. finance, volatility of volatility, high yield, corporate earnings

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

ETF Traders Are Long And Leveraged; Baltic Dry Index Is Plunging

ETF traders are piling into leveraged long funds while leaving leveraged short (inverse) funds, and the Baltic Dry Index is plunging.

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - more MACD signals, economic policy uncertainty, Baltic Dry Index, copper:gold

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Bond Investors Sound The All Clear

Spreads on high yield bonds are plunging, which stock investors take as an all-clear sign. Emerging market stocks are in a new bull market.

Read More ...

---

Market & fundamentals overview: new year and new decade

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Investor And Advisor Optimism Is The Highest In Years

Investor and advisor optimism has spiked, as the yield curve goes from inversion to the steepest in a year.

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - AIM, yield curve steepening, Macro Index, Initial Claims, emerging market currencies

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market & fundamentals overview: Santa Claus rally

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - sentiment, LEI, Hong Kong volatility, strong momentum, Mexico surge

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market & fundamentals overview: post-trade war rally?

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

OECD Composite Leading Indicator Turns Up

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - OECD, advance-decline line, VIX, NASDAQ models + sentiment indicators

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market overview: not QE

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

December 7, 2019: Fundamental Overview Part 2

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Insiders' Sentiment Is Less Rosy Than Investors'

Corporate insider sentiment has diverged from investors' as the AAII survey shows a jump in optimism.Insiders’ insightsThe ISM survey of purchasing managers continues to hover near its lowest level in years, even while the gain in stocks over the past 12 months is among its best in years. That ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - HiLo, coffee, Sweden PMI, AAII and blow-off top

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - business activity, GDP coincident index, Shanghai Index small range, persistent consumer staples

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Looking At A Potential Risk Failure

We're seeing potential failure in some warning signs, as financial conditions ease.Failed warnings…maybeDue to extremely high optimism across a broad array of indicators, our  Medium-Term Risk Level has been elevated for a few weeks. And yet, the S&P 500 is higher now than when risk first ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - financial conditions, stocks vs. bonds & commodities, more on sentiment, soft data, short term breadth

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - momentum, MACD, Medium Term Risk Levels, GS Current Activity Indicator

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Intermediate Term Optix, New Home Sales, small caps breadth, large caps breadth, gold volatility

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - small caps breakout, VIX, healthcare sentiment, cocoa sentiment, global money supply

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market overview: examining short term risks

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

November 23, 2019: Fundamental Overview Part 2

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - LEI, sentiment pullback, low volatility stocks, NASDAQ, Index Put/Call

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Building Permits, VIX Put/Call, long term breadth, high yield bonds, Value vs. Growth

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Breakout In "Overboughtness"

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Overbought breakoutsThe worst environments for sentiment indicators are momentum markets. They don’t happen very often, but when they do, sentiment can get ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - healthcare, France, GDP growth, MSCI World Index, breadth

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

A High HiLo

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.HiLo is highOver the past week, there have been an increasing number of signs of a “split” market, with many winning and losing stocks. That has caused the ...

Read More ...

---

November 16, 2019: Fundamental Overview Part 2

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

OECD drops below 98

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - OECD, low volatility, SKEW, Bullish Percent Index, emerging markets

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

4 Reasons Why A Volatility Event Is On The Horizon

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Volatility eventSeveral indicators influenced by the options market are throwing off concerning readings, showing that traders have become complacent about ...

Read More ...

---

November 9, 2019: Fundamental Overview Part 2

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

November 2, 2019: Fundamental Overview Part 2

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Chemical Activity Barometer, Risk Appetite, Sensex, NASDAQ breadth

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - VIX, nonresidential fixed investment, healthcare, finance, SKEW

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - ex-U.S. stocks, NYSE Up Issues, Economic Surprise, more overseas breadth

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market overview: with stocks at all-time highs, what's next

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

October 26, 2019: Fundamental Overview Part 2

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - bear market, profit warnings, VIX Put/Call, homebuilders, manufacturers' new orders

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What's Wrong With The Smart Money?

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Another one bites the dustThe Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - TLT Optix, Leading vs. Coincident, Russell range, DAX breadth, REITs, Smart Money Index

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market overview: weighing the bullish and bearish evidence

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

October 19, 2019: Fundamental Overview Part 2

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Econo-Dread, Options Fear, Money Tree, Dollar Impact On Earnings Season, Transports, Hated Commodities

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Industrial Production, housing's comeback, VVIX, U.S. Dollar drop, loans

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Chinese profits, Nikkei breadth, Germany breakout, VIX Put/Call, fund flows

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Transportation index moves to new high

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Tuesday Color - VIX below 14, card rates, transport services, slow growth, utility momentum

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - dividend yields, gold & USD, wholesalers' sales, oil positioning, 50 dma breadth.

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Yield Curve Flips As Uncertainty Spikes

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.NormalizingThe most widely watched Treasury yield curve un-inverted in recent days, triggering some calls that now the risk for stocks has declined, that the ...

Read More ...

---

Market overview: lots of chop, no clear direction

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

October 12, 2019: Fundamental Overview Part 2

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Yield curve turns positive

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Fundamental Overview: Part 1

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - momentum's resurgence, new highs-lows, Index Put/Call, job openings, soft data

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Earnings Slump And Junk Spreads Blow Out

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Earnings slumpStandard & Poor’s is estimating that operating earnings among the 505 companies in the S&P 500 index will decline from where they were a year ...

Read More ...

---

S&P 500 earnings decline

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad)

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Leading the worldMost of the ways the U.S. has been surprising the world have not necessarily been the good kind. When it comes to economic reports, though, ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - S&P and MSCI trailing earnings, high yield spreads, Sweden PMI, Dow Transports

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Monday Color - Breadth whipsaws, small traders, surprise spread, bond sentiment

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market overview: should you be concerned along with everyone else?

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Investors' cash cushion is near the lowest in 30 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.No cash cushionIn September, individual investors reduced their cash position to one of the lowest levels in 30 years. They’re not alone. Other groups of ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - VIX Put/Call, ISM vs S&P, USD trend, small cap earnings

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

S&P stocks are starting to roll over, but...

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Manufactured pessimismA popular economic data series has tumbled into recession territory. The ISM Manufacturing survey has cratered over the past year and ...

Read More ...

---

Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Index Put/Call, Hard vs. Soft data, earnings estimates collapse, Arms Index, REITs

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Tuesday Color - ISM plunge, currency flight to safety, eurozone surprises

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - MACD sell signal, Business Climate Indicator, VIX, different surprise indices, gold's 4Q rally

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market overview: no fat pitch

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - South Korean exports, HiLo, gold's top?, no daily movements, India's surge

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Foreigners Flood In As Hard Economic Data Rebounds

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Foreign flowForeign investors have started to come back to U.S. stocks after a year of net selling, as we saw earlier this week.Among other major markets, ...

Read More ...

---

Market overview: a little less bullish

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Citi economic surprises hit 200-day high

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Economic Surprise, low volatility, breadth, McClellan Summation, DAX

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

ETF Traders, Foreigners Jump In Right Before Momentum Stock Shock

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Momentum stock shockAfter last week’s huge drop in momentum stocks, and shift toward value from growth, those shares fell a bit more and have since rebounded. ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - Housing Starts, CFO's pessimism, ZEW, FedEx crash

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - manufacturing still weak, housing recovery?, bearish tops, NASDAQ breadth, new highs

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Industrial production falls below 0.4%

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Tuesday Color - Big Managers Get Bullish, Gold/Dollar Correlation Spike, Repo Rate, Volatility Premium

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Bond Bulls Curb Their Enthusiasm

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Break in bond bullsFor the first time in more than 9 months, optimism on bonds has come down to neutral territory. That ends one of the longest streaks in ...

Read More ...

---

Market overview: almost at an all-time high

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Hedge Funds Hate Bad Stocks

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Fund factorsHedge funds that focus on long/short equity strategies seemingly have very low exposure to stocks, which has been a pattern for all of 2019. More ...

Read More ...

---

What's Better Than Bonds?

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Beautiful breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line for most of the major indexes are at or near all-time highs. Same for every one of the major S&P 500 ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - OECD, small caps, various breadth indicators

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Wednesday Color - Russell vs Nasdaq, Sector Divvies, Bond Whipsaw, Jumps Above BBands

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - NASDAQ McClellan, Rotation, Greed & Fear, Small Business Hiring, world economy

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Momentum Traders' Massive Loss

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Massive momentum moveOn Monday, many momentum traders likely had their worst day in a decade. Stocks that showed the best gains year-to-date suffered some of ...

Read More ...

---

Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - GS Bear Market, Consumers, Rydex, Earnings, Seasonality

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Gold's Shocking Drop

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Gold’s bull runETF traders have consistently poured money into gold funds, even during Thursday’s big drop, which was a “shocking” decline.It started to fall ...

Read More ...

---

Market overview: some more signs of macro weakness

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, semiconductors, breakout, NAAIM, copper reversal?

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Wall Street Is The Most Confused In 20 Years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The Street is behind and confusedWall Street analysts have underestimated the growth in S&P 500 company earnings growth for a year, one of the longest ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - Recession Probability Model, emerging markets, Treasury yields, breadth, Consumer Confidence

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Imminent Recession (So They Say)

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.An unequal monthAn index that equally-weights each of the stocks in the S&P 500 badly under-performed the capitalization-weighted version of the index that ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - ISM PMI, 60/40 portfolio, XLU, gold:silver ratio

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market overview: looking at the stock market from multiple angles

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at: stocks vs. gold, fractals,McCulley, copper, yield curve

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Consumers Vs. Investors As Silver Pops

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers vs. investorsThe latest Consumer Confidence reading shows that U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate an extremely positive outlook on their ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - CNN Fear & Greed, Chemical Activity Barometer, silver's 2 year high, SLV Optix, SKEW

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

1 Of The Whippiest, Most Uncertain Months In A Decade

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.A whippy monthOn an average day over the past month the S&P 500 has moved 1%, one of its widest ranges since the financial crisis.When coming soon after a new ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at: National Activity Index, SPY breadth, short term breakout, bond yields, Ifo

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

A Volatile, But Sound, Month

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Quite A MonthWe seem to be on track for another whipsaw, as markets try to recover from conflicting messages over the weekend, following a rocky end to the ...

Read More ...

---

Monday Color - A Month Of Swings, Economic Uncertainty, Sectors, Scramble For Protection

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

S&P 500 after Economic Uncertainty 5-day avg > 250, w/in 10% of high

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market overview: facts over opinion

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Timing A Move Out Of Stocks, As They Whip Around And Bond Spreads Blow Out

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond blowoutThe riskiest segment of the corporate bond market has been suffering, while safer bonds have been less of a focus for sellers.That raises the ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - State Coincident Index, Conference Board, McClellan Summation, TLT Optix, Treasury yields

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - Put/Call spike, Rydex flows, Rydex breadth, Economic Surprise & bonds

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ...

Read More ...

---

What I'm looking at - small caps vs. large caps, corporate earnings, bonds, daily swings, RV's

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - economic conditions, German manufacturing, Equity Put/Call, New Highs & Lows, Dollar vs. Gold

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What I'm looking at - manufacturing weakness, housing recovery?, Dumb Money, CNN Fear & Greed, Risk Appetite

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Thursday Color - Turmoil, Double Losses, Recession Talk, Financials, Sectors

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

One Of These Curves Is Not Like The Others

Bulls yieldStocks plunged on Wednesday, with the most common excuse being renewed fears of recession due to a further inversion in the Treasury yield curve. Between various maturities, 60% of the curve is now inverted. That preceded a prompt and severe drop in stocks in 2000, but the three other ...

Read More ...

---

Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The End Of A Historic Streak Of Terribleness

Beating expectationsFor the first time in 6 months, economic reports in the U.S. haven’t totally sucked. The Citi Economic Surprise Index is starting to rise quickly, as economists deflated their estimates enough for the economic data to catch up. This ends the longest terrible streak since the ...

Read More ...

---

Only Black Monday And 9/11 Were Worse Than This

Cluster muckSigns of a “split” market started to trigger in mid-July and continued to accrue into the first days of August. This has been one of the tighter clusters of warning signs we’ve seen over the past 50 years.By the time some of these trigger, stocks have already declined somewhat. By ...

Read More ...

---

The Dumb Money Is Nearing Maximum Confidence

Confidence nears upper boundOver the last couple of days, Dumb Money Confidence has poked above 80%. While it has gone higher over the past 20 years, this is in the top 2.3% of all readings.'It’s high enough that it has preceded weak returns, especially in recent years, and those times when ...

Read More ...

---

An Economic Indicator Is Breaking Out - Why That's Bad For Gold Bugs

Earnings down, stocks upEarnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to be flat or negative from the same quarter last year. Even with the slowest growth in 3 years, stocks have been ticking to new highs.There was a hint of “whistling past the graveyard” in those rallies, as the S&P ended up ...

Read More ...

---

Poor Earnings Growth With Stocks At Highs In Q2

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What Scary Thing Do Bond Traders Know?

End to inversionThe spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields has been inverted for more than a month, with the shorter-term bills yielding more than the longer-term notes.At 35 days, the current stretch of an inverted curve is the longest since 2007. When that spread turns positive, it ...

Read More ...

---

Friday Color - Yield Curve, Small Caps, XLU vs XLE, Bonds, Brazil

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Don't Fight The Fed's Sentiment

Don’t fight the FedThat market mantra mostly holds true, and based on the sentiment within the Fed, should be on the bulls’ side. A model from Nordea Markets based on language used during FOMC meetings shows that we currently have the most dovish (easiest money) Fed in a decade.There are some ...

Read More ...

---

Thursday Color - Dovish Fed, Sector Extremes, Round #, Value Line Lag, Twitter Bulls

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Why Recession Risk Is More Bark Than Bite...For Now

Recession around the cornerAccording to a model from the New York Fed, the risk of recession has risen to a point that has almost guaranteed an economic pullback in the past.But that does not mean it was an imminent danger to stocks, which rose every time but once over the next few months. The ...

Read More ...

---

Tuesday Color - High Yield Rally, Sector Breadth, Recession Risk, Yield Drop

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Monday Color - Short-Term Optimism, Funds Vs Options, Lagging Small Caps And Surprises, Bulls Return, Bonds

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Wall Street Isn't Keeping Up

Fairly valuedWe’re approaching the halfway point of the year and the S&P 500 has already met Wall Street strategists’ estimate for where it would be at year-end, according to Bloomberg data.When buyers have run ahead of already-rosy Wall Street predictions, stocks have tended to keep going for ...

Read More ...

---

Thursday Color - Gas, Wall St Strategists, Sector Breadth, Lagging U.S.

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

This Hasn't Happened To Bonds In 3 Years

Brittle bondsThe Optimism Index for bonds hit an extreme low last October. The rally since then has caused it to cycle to the opposite extreme, with the 20-day average now the highest in almost 3 years.Just as it has been rare to see any sustained losses in Treasuries when the Optix gets as low ...

Read More ...

---

Wednesday Color - Tweets, Confidence Spread, Gold, Surprise Impact

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

1/2 Of Bitcoin Bubble Signals Have Triggered

Bitcoin bubble babbleSentiment on bitcoin is jumping, but is below other euphoric peaks. Barely half of “bubble” signals have triggered, unlike past peaks when 100% of them did.By the time sentiment reached its current level, the coin typically took off on a last gasp buying frenzy, notching ...

Read More ...

---

Monday Color - Easy Conditions, Canadian Surprises, Gold Rush, Sector Breadth

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Monday Color - Tiny Range, Options Traders, A Split S&P, Empire Fail

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What The Fed's First Cut Has Meant

First cutThe probability that the Fed will cut rates is rising. It’s still only about a 20% chance in June but more than 80% in July. That will end the longest-ever streak with steady or rising rates. Following these “first cuts”, stocks have done either poorly, or really well, with no middle ...

Read More ...

---

A Big Jobs Miss As Highs Surge

JobsWe saw on Thursday that a big miss in the ADP report possibly meant a big miss in the Nonfarm Payroll report today, and if it dove to a 5-year low, would be a bad sign for stocks. The report missed, but wasn't bad enough to trigger the 5-year low. So at least there's that.But the report did ...

Read More ...

---

Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

What A Steeper Curve Really Means

Curve steepensInvestors are fairly obsessed with the yield curve and its potential message for all markets. The widely watched spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries neared inversion but has quickly reversed and hit its highest level in 6 months.The steepening is often what causes trouble, but ...

Read More ...

---

Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Monday Color - Cycle Peak, De-Risking, Silver, Breadth Extremes

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

A Perfect Technical Buy Signal

Earnings approach peakSince last fall, earnings among S&P 500 companies have been in a pullback. A recent trend higher has nearly erased that and they’re closer to their peak than they’ve been in six months.After other times earnings near their peak after several months, stocks performed well.A ...

Read More ...

---

Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Monday Midday Color - Gaps Again, Sector Divvies, Flight To Safety

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Are You Panicking Like Everyone Else?

Panic-level sellingWe’ve already touched on the persistent negative gaps traders have faced most mornings over the last couple of weeks. It’s worth noting again, because the gaps are now on par with panic-level conditions over the past 35 years.Other than 2008, future returns were excellent. ...

Read More ...

---

What Happens When Hard Data Hardens

Post-recovery pullbackStocks recovered from a morning drop, but the S&P still lost more than 3.5% from its recent peak on an intraday basis. That’s largest drop so far during the recovery from the December low, more than 90 trading sessions.This ends one of the longest-ever streaks since 1928 ...

Read More ...

---

Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Wednesday Midday Color - Bond Bulls, High-Yield Breadth, Lagging S&P Stocks, Tech Values

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Tuesday Midday Color

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Monday Midday Color

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Wall Street Is Technically Bullish, Fundamentally Bearish

Technically bullish, fundamentally bearishIn recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have been raising price targets on stocks within the S&P 500. At the same time, they’ve been lowering their earnings estimates.Usually, there is a positive correlation between the two. When there is a divergence like ...

Read More ...

---

Friday Midday Color

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

2 Reasons Why Earnings Season Is A Worry

Let the earnings beginAs companies start to report earnings this week, there is a fear that projected weak growth could be a stumbling block. To check, we go back to 1930 and look for every two-year span with the most similar earnings pattern of high growth, then low to negative growth, then ...

Read More ...

---

Thursday Midday Color

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ...

Read More ...

---

Economic Surprises Bad For Dollar

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Slowing GDP As Survey Sentiment Rebounds During A Nice Couple Of Months

Slowing growthThe GDP release relieved some investors by being better than feared. But forecasts show that growth this quarter is likely to be the lowest in 8 quarters.Like we’ve seen during past studies looking at economic or earnings recessions, the hype doesn’t often translate to forward ...

Read More ...

---

Nasdaq Hugs Its Average As Volatility Recede Despite Recession Risk

A tight hugThe Nasdaq Composite has hugged its 200-day average for more than a week.Bulls and bears could both make an argument for what that might mean, but since 1971 the Nasdaq has powered higher in the longer-term when it showed this kind of indecision around the widely-watched metric, ...

Read More ...

---

Calm Conditions Reign As Economic Reports Stink

Calm againOptions traders are once again pricing in a narrow trading range for the S&P 500 in the month(s) ahead. The VIX has declined sharply and is below 15 for the first time in almost 90 days.The ends of other long streaks above 15 have led to a rise in the VIX every time, along with Low ...

Read More ...

---

Economic Surprises Turn Negative

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Thursday Midday Color

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Tightest 100-Day Correlations Amid A 20-Year Best Earnings Season

Just like usThere have been nearly 20 different 100-day time windows that have a high correlation to the past 100 sessions in the S&P 500. Most of them ended up peaking right about this time and saw pullbacks over the medium-term.These analogs have been suggesting for a while that stocks ...

Read More ...

---

The End Of A Very Good Q4 Earnings Season

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Jobless Claims Hit 52-Week High As High Beta Shows Relative Struggles

Climbing claimsA 4-week average of jobless claims hit a 52-week high this week, triggering an increase in the probability of recession.Other times that claims cycled from a 52-week low to a 52-week high since 1967, there was a headwind for stocks and tailwind for bonds, especially over the next ...

Read More ...

---

Jobless Claims Hit 52-Week High

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Possible Earnings Contraction; Mom And Pop Roar Back; Dollar Momentum

Earnings contractionCompanies in the S&P 500 have shown 10 quarters of year-over-year growth in operating earnings, but that streak is in danger of ending. Estimates for this quarter continue to come down.If that’s going to be the case, then traders start to anticipate slower growth, and returns ...

Read More ...

---

Nonfarm Payroll Beat

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Emerging Markets Breakout; Fidelity Managers Beat Cash; Baltic Dry Collapse

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Breaking outEmerging markets have closed above their 200-day average for the first time since last spring, a streak of nearly 9 months. That’s one of the longer streaks in 30 years.Other times an emerging markets index ended long streaks below its ...

Read More ...

---

Last-Hour Binge Buying; Shutdown Ends; Consumers' Flagging Expectations

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy endingOver the past month, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 0.3% on average during the last hour of trading, one of its largest-ever clusters of gains.Not only has it been aggressive, it has been consistent. As noted by the fine folks at ...

Read More ...

---

The Anti-Hindenburg Omen; Fed Recession Risk Rises

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The anti-HindenburgA compelling reason for caution last fall was the kind of split market that triggered a cluster of Hindenburg Omen warning signs. Over the past two weeks, there has been a cluster of signals that are the exact opposite of the ...

Read More ...

---

Disappointed Economists; A Weak Leading Index

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.DisappointedConcerns about an economic or earnings recession have skyrocketed over the last couple of months, and disappointing economic reports worldwide are not helping. Economic surprise indexes across the world are all below zero, and the most ...

Read More ...

---

No Bank Failures; Battle Of Time Frames For Moving Averages

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As good as it can getLast year, there were no bank failures. That sounds like a good thing, and it’s happened only 3 other times in 85 years. A sample size of 3 makes it difficult to consider the precedents, so if we relax the parameters and look ...

Read More ...

---

Earnings Recession; Investors Reduce Exposure; Record Outflows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Recession talkConcerns are rising about a recession. Even if we don’t see an economic one, we may be in store for an earnings recession.The data is not showing that as likely, but even if it happens, it does not necessarily mean that stock prices ...

Read More ...

---

Equity Risk Premium Collapses; A Day Of Notable Moves; VIX Not Jumping

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Equity premium collapsesThe premium that investors are willing to pay for stocks’ earnings has collapsed relative to the yield available on bonds. The one-year z-score of the Equity Risk Premium is now 4 standard deviations below average, a ...

Read More ...

---

Yield Curve Inversion; Intense Selling; November Flows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Upside downThe yields on 2- and 3-year Treasuries are now higher than 5-year maturities, an inversion of the short end of the yield curve.This tends to precede an inversion of the more common 2-year vs 10-year yields. But there has been a long lead ...

Read More ...

---

Positive Breadth Divergence; Growth Worries

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A positive divergenceWhen the S&P fell to a 6-month low last week, significantly fewer of its individual stocks did so, creating a positive divergence in its Advance/Decline Line.That looks pretty on a chart, but it hasn’t been consistent enough, ...

Read More ...

---

Jobless Claims Find Bottom; Margin Debt Declines

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bottom in jobless claimsAfter hitting a multi-year low, jobless claims have hit a 6-month high and are above a 52-week average.That tends to lead to a rise in the unemployment rate, an input to many recession models. But a nascent uptrend in ...

Read More ...

---

Sentiment vs Earnings; Massive Buy Programs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Sentiment vs earningsThe S&P 500’s flat return in 2018 so far has been due to the growth in earnings being offset by a drop in sentiment. The price/earnings ratio for the index has declined about as much as earnings have grown, like 2011.Other ...

Read More ...

---

Low Volatility Beats High Beta; Worst-Case Corrections; Bad BID

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rush to safetyInvestors have moved into “safe” low-volatility stocks at the expense of “risky” high-beta ones. The ratio between the two just hit a two-year high, which has preceded some trouble for stocks over the shorter-term.Over the ...

Read More ...

---

Rallying In A Downtrend; Peak Earnings

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rallying in a downtrendStocks are revisiting the 200-day average, which is now sloping down.If we go back and look for times when the 200-day average was rising for at least three months, then turned lower and the S&P was below its average for at ...

Read More ...

---

Gridlock For A Disliked President

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

A Non-Recessionary Correction; The Trend Is No Longer Your Friend

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Non-recessionary pullbackMost recession models show a low probability of an imminent economic recession. If we use a simple, non-optimized, real-time model, it’s currently showing 0% probability.In that kind of environment, 10% pullbacks in stocks ...

Read More ...

---

Money-Losing IPOs Debut Amid Low Uncertainty Ahead Of Elections

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Comfortable with losing moneyBankers have brought the most money-losing IPOs to market since 2000. When we looked at this in the spring of 2015, even then it wasn’t as extreme as it is now. The bankers can’t do this unless the public accepts the ...

Read More ...

---

Growth Better Than Unemployment As Warnings Cluster

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Growth > unemploymentThe President’s triumphant gaffe about a 100-year high in economic success masked a relatively common signal. When GDP growth was higher than the unemployment rate, stock returns were in line with random, suggesting there was ...

Read More ...

---

Goldman Model Predicts Trouble As Grains Get Hit

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Model troubleA Goldman Sachs model incorporating five fundamental factors shows a high risk of an imminent bear market in stocks.When the model reaches its current level, the average S&P 500 return over the next six months was negative 6%.No gains ...

Read More ...

---

Stocks Shrug Off Economic Reports Amid Buying Follow Through

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shrugging off disappointmentEconomic reports haven’t kept up with economists’ outlooks, but it hasn’t mattered as the S&P 500 has rallied to all-time highs. When stocks hit a 200-day high and economic surprises a 200-day low, future returns were ...

Read More ...

---

Mid And Small Caps Break Out As Financial Conditions Ease Amid VIX Decline

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Large caps lag mids and smallsThe S&P Mid Cap and Small Cap indexes have hit new 52-week highs this week while the large-cap S&P 500 still has not.The lagging S&P 500 tends to catch up, with all three indexes usually rallying in the months ...

Read More ...

---

Yield Curve Favors Defense As ETF Investors Flee Developed Markets

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Curve favors the defenseA narrow yield curve has led to good returns in defensive sectors. By the time the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields got as low as it was in July, future returns in the dollar were muted to negative, leading ...

Read More ...

---

A Record Beat Rate For Earnings As Investors Flee World ETFs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A record beat rateS&P 500 companies have beat earnings expectations to a record degree. As we near the two-week mark of earnings season, about 90% of companies reported better-than-anticipated earnings. That’s more than 15% above the average beat ...

Read More ...

---

Good Growth During Earnings Season As Nasdaq Leads

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A great season of earningsEarnings season is expected to bring another quarter of impressive growth.When that growth is high, however, earnings season carries more risk than reward.Tech is leading the chargeThe Nasdaq Composite is leading the four ...

Read More ...

---

Economic Surprises Turn Negative, So Do Investors And Gold

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A slip in surprisesU.S. economic surprises have ended their longest-ever positive streak, after being positive since last September.The ends of other long positive streaks led to mixed returns in stocks, excellent ones in bonds, and poor in ...

Read More ...

---

Corporate Bonds Suffer As Small Caps Shrug Off Economic Reports

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bloodbath in bondsCorporate bonds have been hammered, with Tuesday seeing the worst breadth readings since 2008 and 2013. Those two crises (the financial meltdown and the end of QE) were the only ones that matched Tuesday’s carnage.Forward returns ...

Read More ...

---

Small Caps Shine As Financial Conditions Tighten And VIX Drops

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small caps trying to drag us higherThe small-cap Russell 2000 is within 1% of an all-time high, while the S&P 500 is still more than 5% below.That’s usually taken as a universally good sign for stocks in general. It hasn’t been that easy, ...

Read More ...

---

Bad Eurozone Surprises As Crude, Dollar Rally

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The euro doesn’t like negative surprisesRecent months have seen the worst economic results relative to expectations in the eurozone since 2011. Only three other periods in 15 years have seen results as bad as this. All three led to weakness in the ...

Read More ...

---

Economic Uncertainty During Midterm Summers As Stocks Form Lower Highs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Midterm summer bluesThe summers of midterm election years are weak more often than not. Supposedly, it’s supposed to get even worse if investors are uncertain about government economic policy.Going back to 1900, however, that doesn’t seem to be the ...

Read More ...

---

Bond Aren't Buffering Stocks As Earnings Surprises Near Record

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Balanced portfolios see unusual lossesOver the past few months, there was a 5-year high in days where stocks sold off and bonds did too.That raises worries that the typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio allocation will suffer as bonds don’t lift when ...

Read More ...

---

Earnings Season As A Savior As Stocks Get Stuck

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good earnings as a saviorAnalysts expect robust growth in earnings as companies report them over the next four weeks. Good growth is also expected to save stocks as they just corrected ahead of earnings season.This has been a shaky leg upon which ...

Read More ...

---

Tepid Earnings Reaction As SPY Loses Shares

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Investors shrug at good earningsS&P 500 companies have reported excellent earnings growth, after several quarters that also saw growth.While those earnings were reported to investors, though, the S&P 500 index barely budged after all the ...

Read More ...

---

Hated Bonds As U.S. Economy Out-Surprises Eurozone

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Survey says: sell bondsRecent surveys of diverse investor groups show nearly universal expectations for higher rates (lower bond prices). An average of different surveys is the most extreme since 2005.Other extremes mostly led to lower interest ...

Read More ...

---

Shades Of '87 In Stock/Dollar/Rate Moves As 50-Day Fails

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shades of ’87 (among others)Over the past year, stocks have rallied, and the dollar has collapses as the Fed raises rates.That is similar to 1987, but there were also other dates that didn’t lead to nearly such dramatic results. After similar ...

Read More ...

---

Easy Conditions As Traders Short More VIX

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Easy conditionsA major measure of national financial conditions just reached a historic level of easiness because “it’s all good.”This is despite a sharp jump in interest rates, which is peculiar behavior. That seems like it should be a good sign, ...

Read More ...

---

Yield Inversion As Utilities Correct

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Yield inversionThe yield on 2-year Treasury Notes is now higher than the dividend yield on the S&P 500. That’s the first time in 10 years, causing consternation among some who only look back that far, since it preceded the financial crisis.But ...

Read More ...

---

No Negative Surprises As Indexes Hit Highs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No negative surprisesEvery major Economic Surprise Index across the world is now positive. From the U.S. to China, Europe to Emerging Markets, all regions have had economic reports that have exceeded economists’ expectations.When we’ve had such ...

Read More ...

---

Good Times As S&P Shrugs Off Financials

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good timesLow stress and easy financial conditions have led to high confidence, low savings and good economic surprises.That combination of positive factors has never been seen to the degree we’re enjoying now. Prior “good times” led to mixed ...

Read More ...

---

Amazon's Optimistic Group-Think

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Amazon Upgrade As A Sign Of A Top

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Positive Markets On Nonfarm Payroll Miss

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Big Payroll Miss

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Gapping Down On A Nonfarm Payroll Miss

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

The Most Frightening Chart

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Large Loss On Nonfarm Payroll Day

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

Nonfarm Payroll Reaction

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

---

next page →