Posts tagged as Fundamentals

Market overview: lots of chop, no clear direction

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October 12, 2019: Fundamental Overview Part 2

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Fundamental Overview: Part 1

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What I'm looking at - momentum's resurgence, new highs-lows, Index Put/Call, job openings, soft data

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Earnings Slump And Junk Spreads Blow Out

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Earnings slumpStandard & Poor’s is estimating that operating earnings among the 505 companies in the S&P 500 index will decline from where they were a year ...

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USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad)

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Leading the worldMost of the ways the U.S. has been surprising the world have not necessarily been the good kind. When it comes to economic reports, though, ...

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What I'm looking at - S&P and MSCI trailing earnings, high yield spreads, Sweden PMI, Dow Transports

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Monday Color - Breadth whipsaws, small traders, surprise spread, bond sentiment

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Market overview: should you be concerned along with everyone else?

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Investors' cash cushion is near the lowest in 30 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.No cash cushionIn September, individual investors reduced their cash position to one of the lowest levels in 30 years. They’re not alone. Other groups of ...

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What I'm looking at - VIX Put/Call, ISM vs S&P, USD trend, small cap earnings

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S&P stocks are starting to roll over, but...

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Manufactured pessimismA popular economic data series has tumbled into recession territory. The ISM Manufacturing survey has cratered over the past year and ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

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What I'm looking at - Index Put/Call, Hard vs. Soft data, earnings estimates collapse, Arms Index, REITs

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Tuesday Color - ISM plunge, currency flight to safety, eurozone surprises

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What I'm looking at - MACD sell signal, Business Climate Indicator, VIX, different surprise indices, gold's 4Q rally

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Market overview: no fat pitch

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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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What I'm looking at - South Korean exports, HiLo, gold's top?, no daily movements, India's surge

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Foreigners Flood In As Hard Economic Data Rebounds

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Foreign flowForeign investors have started to come back to U.S. stocks after a year of net selling, as we saw earlier this week.Among other major markets, ...

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Market overview: a little less bullish

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Citi economic surprises hit 200-day high

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What I'm looking at - Economic Surprise, low volatility, breadth, McClellan Summation, DAX

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ETF Traders, Foreigners Jump In Right Before Momentum Stock Shock

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Momentum stock shockAfter last week’s huge drop in momentum stocks, and shift toward value from growth, those shares fell a bit more and have since rebounded. ...

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What I'm looking at - Housing Starts, CFO's pessimism, ZEW, FedEx crash

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What I'm looking at - manufacturing still weak, housing recovery?, bearish tops, NASDAQ breadth, new highs

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Industrial production falls below 0.4%

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Tuesday Color - Big Managers Get Bullish, Gold/Dollar Correlation Spike, Repo Rate, Volatility Premium

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Bond Bulls Curb Their Enthusiasm

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Break in bond bullsFor the first time in more than 9 months, optimism on bonds has come down to neutral territory. That ends one of the longest streaks in ...

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Market overview: almost at an all-time high

The stock market is within an inch of its all time high. Here's my market outlook:Long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls. Valuations are high, but valuations can remain high for years.Fundamentals (6-12 months): still bullish because there is no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but this ... [...]

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Hedge Funds Hate Bad Stocks

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Fund factorsHedge funds that focus on long/short equity strategies seemingly have very low exposure to stocks, which has been a pattern for all of 2019. More ... [...]

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What's Better Than Bonds?

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Beautiful breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line for most of the major indexes are at or near all-time highs. Same for every one of the major S&P 500 ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - OECD, small caps, various breadth indicators

With the stock market near an all-time high, here's what I'm looking at:OECD Composite Leading IndicatorAs popular bear David Rosenberg pointed out, the OECD's Leading Indicator (USA) has fallen for the 15th consecutive month. This often occurred in the middle of a recession, which is why the ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Russell vs Nasdaq, Sector Divvies, Bond Whipsaw, Jumps Above BBands

Here's what's piquing my interest on a quiet day.DivergentWe've looked a couple of times at the remarkable shift in momentum between winners and losers, growth and value over the last couple of days. While it's tempting to read a broader shift into it, sharp, severe ones like this have happened ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - NASDAQ McClellan, Rotation, Greed & Fear, Small Business Hiring, world economy

Here's what I'm looking at:NASDAQ McClellanThe ratio-adjusted NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator, which looks at the momentum of the NASDAQ's breadth, has now exceeded 50.This figure isn't extremely high. But when the McClellan Oscillator crossed above 50 for the first time in more than 6 months, the ... [...]

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Momentum Traders' Massive Loss

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Massive momentum moveOn Monday, many momentum traders likely had their worst day in a decade. Stocks that showed the best gains year-to-date suffered some of ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today as momentum stocks once again fare poorly.Value's BackThe trash bin is overflowing with proclamations that finally value stocks are about to have their moment in the sun. They've lagged growth stocks so badly, and for so long, that sentiment seems ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - GS Bear Market, Consumers, Rydex, Earnings, Seasonality

The U.S. stock market remains close to an all-time high. Here's what I'm looking at.Bear Market Probability ModelGoldman Sachs has a "Bear Market Probability Model" that uses 5 fundamental inputs - the U.S. Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing Index, Yield Curve, Inflation Rate, and P/E Ratio. ... [...]

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Gold's Shocking Drop

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Gold’s bull runETF traders have consistently poured money into gold funds, even during Thursday’s big drop, which was a “shocking” decline.It started to fall ... [...]

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Market overview: some more signs of macro weakness

The stock market appears to have broken out from its August range during a shortened week. Here's my market outlook:Long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls. Valuations are high, but valuations can remain high for years.Fundamentals (6-12 months): still bullish because there is no significant ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, semiconductors, breakout, NAAIM, copper reversal?

The S&P has finally broken out from its month-long range. Here's what I'm looking at.Citigroup Economic Surprise IndexThe Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has turned positive after being negative for 143 consecutive days. This was an extremely long streak, and economic data is now starting to ... [...]

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Wall Street Is The Most Confused In 20 Years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The Street is behind and confusedWall Street analysts have underestimated the growth in S&P 500 company earnings growth for a year, one of the longest ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Recession Probability Model, emerging markets, Treasury yields, breadth, Consumer Confidence

The S&P has rallied back to the top of this month-long range. Here's what I'm looking at.NY Fed Recession Probability ModelWith the yield curve pushing deeper into inversion territory, the "probability of a recession" from various popular recession models based on yield curves continues to ... [...]

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Imminent Recession (So They Say)

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.An unequal monthAn index that equally-weights each of the stocks in the S&P 500 badly under-performed the capitalization-weighted version of the index that ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - ISM PMI, 60/40 portfolio, XLU, gold:silver ratio

The S&P 500 remains stuck in the 2930-2940 range. Here's what I'm looking at.ISM manufacturing PMIAs Jason noted yesterday, the widely followed ISM manufacturing PMI has fallen below 50. This means that it will be a bearish factor for the Macro Index starting on October 1. Both the WSJ and ... [...]

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Market overview: looking at the stock market from multiple angles

The stock market has been stuck in a range since August. Here's my market outlook:Long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls. Valuations are high, but valuations can remain high for years.Fundamentals (6-12 months): still bullish because there is no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but this ... [...]

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What I'm looking at: stocks vs. gold, fractals,McCulley, copper, yield curve

Stocks continue to fluctuate along the lines of trade war news. Here's what I'm looking at.Gold vs. stocksWith precious metals rallying during recent "trade war fears" and "recession fears", we've seen a renewed interest in gold and silver that we haven't seen in years. As usual there are the ... [...]

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Consumers Vs. Investors As Silver Pops

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers vs. investorsThe latest Consumer Confidence reading shows that U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate an extremely positive outlook on their ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - CNN Fear & Greed, Chemical Activity Barometer, silver's 2 year high, SLV Optix, SKEW

With the stock market still volatile amid heightened "recession fears", gold and silver continue to rally. Here's what I'm looking at.CNN Fear & GreedAs the stock market continues to swing sideways with continuous talk of an impending "recession", various sentiment indicators continue to show ... [...]

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1 Of The Whippiest, Most Uncertain Months In A Decade

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.A whippy monthOn an average day over the past month the S&P 500 has moved 1%, one of its widest ranges since the financial crisis.When coming soon after a new ... [...]

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What I'm looking at: National Activity Index, SPY breadth, short term breakout, bond yields, Ifo

The stock market remains volatile within a narrow range. Here's what I'm looking at.Chicago Fed National Activity IndexThe Chicago Fed publishes a National Activity Index that gauges whether the national economy is growing above or below its average historical rate. Readings > 0 indicate ... [...]

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A Volatile, But Sound, Month

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Quite A MonthWe seem to be on track for another whipsaw, as markets try to recover from conflicting messages over the weekend, following a rocky end to the ... [...]

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Monday Color - A Month Of Swings, Economic Uncertainty, Sectors, Scramble For Protection

Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks swing wildly from their weekend lows.Quite A MonthWe seem to be on track for another whipsaw, as markets try to recover from conflicting messages over the weekend, following a rocky end to the week.Price patterns probably mean less now than they ever ... [...]

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S&P 500 after Economic Uncertainty 5-day avg > 250, w/in 10% of high

According to the media, most of this anxiety is being triggered by uncertainty about the U.S. administration’s economic policies. While it’s always sketchy to assign cause and effect, this one seems pretty clear. There are different ways to measure this, with the most commonly cited source ... [...]

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Market overview: facts over opinion

There are so many things to think and "worry" about right now. Trade war, earnings slowdown, macro weakness, recession fears, yield curve..... The list is endless. So let's step back and focus on what we know (data) instead of opinions (trying to predict the future).Long term risk:reward doesn’t ... [...]

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Timing A Move Out Of Stocks, As They Whip Around And Bond Spreads Blow Out

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond blowoutThe riskiest segment of the corporate bond market has been suffering, while safer bonds have been less of a focus for sellers.That raises the ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - State Coincident Index, Conference Board, McClellan Summation, TLT Optix, Treasury yields

The stock market is flat ahead of Jackson Hole. Here's what I'm looking at:Philly Fed State Coincident IndexThe Philadelphia Federal Reserve creates a coincident index for each state that looks at whether a state's economy is improving or deteriorating. The Philly Fed then combines this into a ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Put/Call spike, Rydex flows, Rydex breadth, Economic Surprise & bonds

The stock market continues to bounce within a range. Here's what I'm looking at.Put/Call spikeWhile the stock market rallied more than 0.8% yesterday, the Total Put/Call ratio spiked to the highest level since this pullback/correction began. This is extremely rare because the stock market and ... [...]

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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - small caps vs. large caps, corporate earnings, bonds, daily swings, RV's

The stock market continues to swing back and forth. Here's what I'm looking at:Small vs. large capsSmall cap stocks were relatively weak during the Q4 2018 stock market selloff, and have been relatively weak since February. While the S&P 500 has been trending sideways/higher, the Russell 2000 ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - economic conditions, German manufacturing, Equity Put/Call, New Highs & Lows, Dollar vs. Gold

With the stock market still volatile on a day-to-day basis, here's what I'm looking at:Economic ConditionsThe University of Michigan publishes a Current Economic Conditions Index that asks consumers how they view current economic conditions in the country. The survey includes more than 500 ... [...]

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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

I usually write an overview of the markets each week that combines the technical & fundamental indicators I look at:Technicals (1-2 months): no clear edge in either direction. If I had to guess, I think there’s a 60% chance that the S&P makes new lows. Not decisive.Technicals (3-6 months): ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - manufacturing weakness, housing recovery?, Dumb Money, CNN Fear & Greed, Risk Appetite

Markets remain volatile amid a flood of "RECESSION" headlines. I'll publish a comprehensive market overview that combines fundamentals with technicals this weekend. But for now, here are a few things I'm looking at. Manufacturing weaknessWhile the media is screaming "RECESSION INCOMING", not all ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Turmoil, Double Losses, Recession Talk, Financials, Sectors

Here's what's piquing my interest so far during this tentative recovery attempt.Fear MongeringPerhaps there is no greater sign of the anxiety among investors than when the television channel most geared toward unsophisticated investors runs a special report highlighting the volatility.Red ... [...]

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One Of These Curves Is Not Like The Others

Bulls yieldStocks plunged on Wednesday, with the most common excuse being renewed fears of recession due to a further inversion in the Treasury yield curve. Between various maturities, 60% of the curve is now inverted. That preceded a prompt and severe drop in stocks in 2000, but the three other ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

Here's what's piquing my interest as we go through yet another volatile session.CurvyMight as well get to it, since it's going to be a popular topic today. Another part of the Treasury yield curve inverted (or threatening to do so depending on the data source). The one that matters the most ... [...]

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The End Of A Historic Streak Of Terribleness

Beating expectationsFor the first time in 6 months, economic reports in the U.S. haven’t totally sucked. The Citi Economic Surprise Index is starting to rise quickly, as economists deflated their estimates enough for the economic data to catch up. This ends the longest terrible streak since the ... [...]

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Only Black Monday And 9/11 Were Worse Than This

Cluster muckSigns of a “split” market started to trigger in mid-July and continued to accrue into the first days of August. This has been one of the tighter clusters of warning signs we’ve seen over the past 50 years.By the time some of these trigger, stocks have already declined somewhat. By ... [...]

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The Dumb Money Is Nearing Maximum Confidence

Confidence nears upper boundOver the last couple of days, Dumb Money Confidence has poked above 80%. While it has gone higher over the past 20 years, this is in the top 2.3% of all readings.'It’s high enough that it has preceded weak returns, especially in recent years, and those times when ... [...]

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An Economic Indicator Is Breaking Out - Why That's Bad For Gold Bugs

Earnings down, stocks upEarnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to be flat or negative from the same quarter last year. Even with the slowest growth in 3 years, stocks have been ticking to new highs.There was a hint of “whistling past the graveyard” in those rallies, as the S&P ended up ... [...]

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Poor Earnings Growth With Stocks At Highs In Q2

Depending on the source, it looks like earnings for S&P 500 companies are going to be lower than they were in the same quarter last year. There was a hint of “whistling past the graveyard” in those rallies, as the S&P ended up running into trouble several times, especially in recent ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to position themselves ahead of a deluge of earnings.Earnings ParadeMuch is being made of the potential slowdown in earnings as companies begin to report in earnest over the next couple of weeks. We've seen in years past that "earnings ... [...]

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What Scary Thing Do Bond Traders Know?

End to inversionThe spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields has been inverted for more than a month, with the shorter-term bills yielding more than the longer-term notes.At 35 days, the current stretch of an inverted curve is the longest since 2007. When that spread turns positive, it ... [...]

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Friday Color - Yield Curve, Small Caps, XLU vs XLE, Bonds, Brazil

Here's what's piquing my interest on what looks to be another small-range attempt at new highs.SteeperOne of my family's great jokes is that although I'm 6'7", I don't like heights. It's a never-ending source of entertainment for them - tall guy who's afraid of heights, haha. My knees get weak, ... [...]

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Don't Fight The Fed's Sentiment

Don’t fight the FedThat market mantra mostly holds true, and based on the sentiment within the Fed, should be on the bulls’ side. A model from Nordea Markets based on language used during FOMC meetings shows that we currently have the most dovish (easiest money) Fed in a decade.There are some ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Dovish Fed, Sector Extremes, Round #, Value Line Lag, Twitter Bulls

Here's what's piquing my interest on what so far is looking like a very narrow-range day.When Doves FlyAccording to a note from Nordea Markets, the Fed has become the most dovish since 2009. This is based on the language the Fed uses in statements to the public, with a "dovish" bent meaning they ... [...]

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Why Recession Risk Is More Bark Than Bite...For Now

Recession around the cornerAccording to a model from the New York Fed, the risk of recession has risen to a point that has almost guaranteed an economic pullback in the past.But that does not mean it was an imminent danger to stocks, which rose every time but once over the next few months. The ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - High Yield Rally, Sector Breadth, Recession Risk, Yield Drop

Here's what's piquing my interest on another day showing a recovery from early weakness.High Times For JunkOver the past couple of weeks, the high-yield (junk) bond market has enjoyed one of its best stretches in at least 14 years. Nearly 30% of the 2,000+ bonds tracked by the Nasdaq hit ... [...]

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Monday Color - Short-Term Optimism, Funds Vs Options, Lagging Small Caps And Surprises, Bulls Return, Bonds

Here's what's piquing my interest as markets suffer their usual post-holiday slide.Short-Term ExtremesWhile stocks didn't surge last week, they did hold their gains. And whoever was still trading over a holiday week was pretty optimistic it was going to continue.The shortest-term indicators we ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to drift away ahead of what is likely to be an extended holiday weekend.Tech RecoveryThe WSJ notes that the S&P 500's tech components have reached a new high for the first time in months, erasing the 10% correction from May.This is one of the ... [...]

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Wall Street Isn't Keeping Up

Fairly valuedWe’re approaching the halfway point of the year and the S&P 500 has already met Wall Street strategists’ estimate for where it would be at year-end, according to Bloomberg data.When buyers have run ahead of already-rosy Wall Street predictions, stocks have tended to keep going for ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Gas, Wall St Strategists, Sector Breadth, Lagging U.S.

Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks meander ahead of a big international meeting and summer holidays.Gas StocksYesterday, we saw that natural gas was the most-hated commodity, and over the past 15 years it has had a strong tendency to rebound over the next month or so.If we look at how ... [...]

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This Hasn't Happened To Bonds In 3 Years

Brittle bondsThe Optimism Index for bonds hit an extreme low last October. The rally since then has caused it to cycle to the opposite extreme, with the 20-day average now the highest in almost 3 years.Just as it has been rare to see any sustained losses in Treasuries when the Optix gets as low ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Tweets, Confidence Spread, Gold, Surprise Impact

Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks meekly try to recover from yesterday's selling.Trump TweetsWhatever your opinion of him, there is no arguing that the president is a careful monitor of the stock market and it's collective opinion of him. In the past week, he's taken an increased ... [...]

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1/2 Of Bitcoin Bubble Signals Have Triggered

Bitcoin bubble babbleSentiment on bitcoin is jumping, but is below other euphoric peaks. Barely half of “bubble” signals have triggered, unlike past peaks when 100% of them did.By the time sentiment reached its current level, the coin typically took off on a last gasp buying frenzy, notching ... [...]

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Monday Color - Easy Conditions, Canadian Surprises, Gold Rush, Sector Breadth

Here's what's piquing my interest on a slow start to the week. For stocks, anyway. Gold is going gangbusters.Easy Does ItWith the rise in stocks, relative calm in currency markets, and drop in interest rates, financial conditions have continued to ease. As stocks hit new highs late last week, ... [...]

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Monday Color - Tiny Range, Options Traders, A Split S&P, Empire Fail

Here's what's piquing my interest on what's likely to be several waiting-for-the-Fed days.No CommitmentThe WSJ notes that stocks have been stuck for the past week. The S&P 500 hasn't had a daily up or down move of more than 0.5% for what would be the 6th straight day, if today's meandering ... [...]

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Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a choppy Friday.Bond FlowOver the past 8 sessions, corporate bond ETFs LQD, HYG, and JNK have seen steady inflows. To a near-record degree, in fact. That happened in the midst of a nice run in January of this year, with no ill effect. But it also ... [...]

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What The Fed's First Cut Has Meant

First cutThe probability that the Fed will cut rates is rising. It’s still only about a 20% chance in June but more than 80% in July. That will end the longest-ever streak with steady or rising rates. Following these “first cuts”, stocks have done either poorly, or really well, with no middle ... [...]

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A Big Jobs Miss As Highs Surge

JobsWe saw on Thursday that a big miss in the ADP report possibly meant a big miss in the Nonfarm Payroll report today, and if it dove to a 5-year low, would be a bad sign for stocks. The report missed, but wasn't bad enough to trigger the 5-year low. So at least there's that.But the report did ... [...]

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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

Like Tuesday, I won't be publishing a Daily Report, but will instead send this as a Bulletin. This is typically what's sent out around midday as a Premium Note - it's a look at my notebook of things I'm watching throughout the day, some of which then make it into the Reports.The summary portions ... [...]

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What A Steeper Curve Really Means

Curve steepensInvestors are fairly obsessed with the yield curve and its potential message for all markets. The widely watched spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries neared inversion but has quickly reversed and hit its highest level in 6 months.The steepening is often what causes trouble, but ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.StretchedThe massive move in bonds continues to get a lot of attention, and for good reason. We saw the other day that it's relatively unusual to see a new high in bonds (low in yields) with an explosion in volatility, and that has been a good sign ... [...]

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Monday Color - Cycle Peak, De-Risking, Silver, Breadth Extremes

Here's what's piquing my interest on another day failing to hold a rally.Mixed MessagesDepending on the data set, or even on the day, the fundamental picture for markets looks just as muddled as the technical one. One of the biggest worries is that the economy may be tipping into recession, ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.5 StraightWe saw at the end of last week that the Dow Industrials had just suffered its 5th straight negative week, a rarely-seen bout of selling pressure given the index is so near its high.It's not the only index. The Shanghai Composite also ... [...]

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A Perfect Technical Buy Signal

Earnings approach peakSince last fall, earnings among S&P 500 companies have been in a pullback. A recent trend higher has nearly erased that and they’re closer to their peak than they’ve been in six months.After other times earnings near their peak after several months, stocks performed well.A ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Momentum ShiftMarketwatch notes that there has been a long-term momentum shift in stocks that has had an unerring ability to lead to higher prices. This last happened in 2016, according to a popular technical indicator.If ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Gaps Again, Sector Divvies, Flight To Safety

Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another weak day so far.More PanicYet another gap down open this morning, as the weeks-long pattern of pre-market panic continues. We've already looked at this a few times, but there's perhaps a better way to consider this.The gaps we've been seeing at ... [...]

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Are You Panicking Like Everyone Else?

Panic-level sellingWe’ve already touched on the persistent negative gaps traders have faced most mornings over the last couple of weeks. It’s worth noting again, because the gaps are now on par with panic-level conditions over the past 35 years.Other than 2008, future returns were excellent. ... [...]

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What Happens When Hard Data Hardens

Post-recovery pullbackStocks recovered from a morning drop, but the S&P still lost more than 3.5% from its recent peak on an intraday basis. That’s largest drop so far during the recovery from the December low, more than 90 trading sessions.This ends one of the longest-ever streaks since 1928 ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Kanye Wouldn't Be HappyThe WSJ, via BofAML, notes that companies aren't mentioning positive keywords much on their earnings calls. They searched through call transcripts over the past 16 years and show that there have been few mentions of ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Bond Bulls, High-Yield Breadth, Lagging S&P Stocks, Tech Values

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Bond BullsThe rush into long-term Treasury ETFs has been really something. Four of the largest funds have increased their shares outstanding by more than 15% in just the past week. The last couple of times, that coincided with short-term exhaustion ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Super ConfidentDumb Money Confidence has entered a "super extreme" phase. In the 20 year history of the model, only two distinct time periods can compare - the recoveries from the last two major bear markets. That was a good long-term sign of ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on tax day.April 15Just because.Breadth ReviewThere was another surge in French stocks hitting multi-month highs to end last week, at nearly 50% of CAC components.That has helped to push its long-term breadth momentum to an extreme.In the U.S., the ... [...]

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Wall Street Is Technically Bullish, Fundamentally Bearish

Technically bullish, fundamentally bearishIn recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have been raising price targets on stocks within the S&P 500. At the same time, they’ve been lowering their earnings estimates.Usually, there is a positive correlation between the two. When there is a divergence like ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.GapDumb Money Confidence is holding above an extreme of 80%, and buyers were enthusiastic enough to push a pre-market gap more than 0.5% above the prior close. That's only happened five times before, all of which pulled back during the next week.If ... [...]

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2 Reasons Why Earnings Season Is A Worry

Let the earnings beginAs companies start to report earnings this week, there is a fear that projected weak growth could be a stumbling block. To check, we go back to 1930 and look for every two-year span with the most similar earnings pattern of high growth, then low to negative growth, then ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Crude RecoveryThe WSJ notes that crude oil has finally managed to recover above its 200-day average after a long period below. At its depths, it was more than 30% below its average, a truly severe decline.When it has closed above its average after ... [...]

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An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ... [...]

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Economic Surprises Bad For Dollar

The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. has dropped below -50, what could be considered a "terrible" extreme. Economic reports have come in below economists' expectations for months.While that means economists will start lowering their expectations for future reports, thus increasing the ... [...]

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Slowing GDP As Survey Sentiment Rebounds During A Nice Couple Of Months

Slowing growthThe GDP release relieved some investors by being better than feared. But forecasts show that growth this quarter is likely to be the lowest in 8 quarters.Like we’ve seen during past studies looking at economic or earnings recessions, the hype doesn’t often translate to forward ... [...]

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Nasdaq Hugs Its Average As Volatility Recede Despite Recession Risk

A tight hugThe Nasdaq Composite has hugged its 200-day average for more than a week.Bulls and bears could both make an argument for what that might mean, but since 1971 the Nasdaq has powered higher in the longer-term when it showed this kind of indecision around the widely-watched metric, ... [...]

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Calm Conditions Reign As Economic Reports Stink

Calm againOptions traders are once again pricing in a narrow trading range for the S&P 500 in the month(s) ahead. The VIX has declined sharply and is below 15 for the first time in almost 90 days.The ends of other long streaks above 15 have led to a rise in the VIX every time, along with Low ... [...]

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Economic Surprises Turn Negative

With another raft of economic reports coming in below economists' expectations this week, the Bloomberg U.S. Economic Surprise Index has sunk to its lowest level in three years.Other times it dropped to this low of a level, stocks struggled in the month(s) ahead. The sample size is a lot smaller ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.The VIX closed under 15 for the first time in months on Wednesday. That has rarely led to further losses over the next several weeks.Ignore the latest date on the tables, it should read “2019-02-15”. The rising volatility didn’t necessarily ... [...]

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Tightest 100-Day Correlations Amid A 20-Year Best Earnings Season

Just like usThere have been nearly 20 different 100-day time windows that have a high correlation to the past 100 sessions in the S&P 500. Most of them ended up peaking right about this time and saw pullbacks over the medium-term.These analogs have been suggesting for a while that stocks ... [...]

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The End Of A Very Good Q4 Earnings Season

With Wal-Mart reporting results today, the 4th quarter earnings reporting season has unofficially ended. And what a season it was, with a likely gain of more than 8% for the S&P 500 (measured from the unofficial start of earnings season about a week into the New Year and lasting through ... [...]

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Jobless Claims Hit 52-Week High As High Beta Shows Relative Struggles

Climbing claimsA 4-week average of jobless claims hit a 52-week high this week, triggering an increase in the probability of recession.Other times that claims cycled from a 52-week low to a 52-week high since 1967, there was a headwind for stocks and tailwind for bonds, especially over the next ... [...]

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Jobless Claims Hit 52-Week High

One of the basic inputs we've used in the simple recession probability model is the 4-week average of jobless claims. The figure released today shows another uptick, and the 4-week average just hit a 52-week high.When claims went from a 52-week low to a 52-week high, stocks have struggled ... [...]

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Possible Earnings Contraction; Mom And Pop Roar Back; Dollar Momentum

Earnings contractionCompanies in the S&P 500 have shown 10 quarters of year-over-year growth in operating earnings, but that streak is in danger of ending. Estimates for this quarter continue to come down.If that’s going to be the case, then traders start to anticipate slower growth, and returns ... [...]

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Nonfarm Payroll Beat

The Nonfarm Payroll Report (NFP) is widely believed to be the most important economic report in the U.S., or at least the one with the most sway over markets.This morning's release showed a huge positive surprise, "positive" being many more jobs added than expected. There was a big revision down ... [...]

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Emerging Markets Breakout; Fidelity Managers Beat Cash; Baltic Dry Collapse

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Breaking outEmerging markets have closed above their 200-day average for the first time since last spring, a streak of nearly 9 months. That’s one of the longer streaks in 30 years.Other times an emerging markets index ended long streaks below its ... [...]

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Last-Hour Binge Buying; Shutdown Ends; Consumers' Flagging Expectations

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy endingOver the past month, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 0.3% on average during the last hour of trading, one of its largest-ever clusters of gains.Not only has it been aggressive, it has been consistent. As noted by the fine folks at ... [...]

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The Anti-Hindenburg Omen; Fed Recession Risk Rises

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The anti-HindenburgA compelling reason for caution last fall was the kind of split market that triggered a cluster of Hindenburg Omen warning signs. Over the past two weeks, there has been a cluster of signals that are the exact opposite of the ... [...]

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Disappointed Economists; A Weak Leading Index

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.DisappointedConcerns about an economic or earnings recession have skyrocketed over the last couple of months, and disappointing economic reports worldwide are not helping. Economic surprise indexes across the world are all below zero, and the most ... [...]

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No Bank Failures; Battle Of Time Frames For Moving Averages

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As good as it can getLast year, there were no bank failures. That sounds like a good thing, and it’s happened only 3 other times in 85 years. A sample size of 3 makes it difficult to consider the precedents, so if we relax the parameters and look ... [...]

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Earnings Recession; Investors Reduce Exposure; Record Outflows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Recession talkConcerns are rising about a recession. Even if we don’t see an economic one, we may be in store for an earnings recession.The data is not showing that as likely, but even if it happens, it does not necessarily mean that stock prices ... [...]

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Equity Risk Premium Collapses; A Day Of Notable Moves; VIX Not Jumping

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Equity premium collapsesThe premium that investors are willing to pay for stocks’ earnings has collapsed relative to the yield available on bonds. The one-year z-score of the Equity Risk Premium is now 4 standard deviations below average, a ... [...]

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Yield Curve Inversion; Intense Selling; November Flows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Upside downThe yields on 2- and 3-year Treasuries are now higher than 5-year maturities, an inversion of the short end of the yield curve.This tends to precede an inversion of the more common 2-year vs 10-year yields. But there has been a long lead ... [...]

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Positive Breadth Divergence; Growth Worries

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A positive divergenceWhen the S&P fell to a 6-month low last week, significantly fewer of its individual stocks did so, creating a positive divergence in its Advance/Decline Line.That looks pretty on a chart, but it hasn’t been consistent enough, ... [...]

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Jobless Claims Find Bottom; Margin Debt Declines

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bottom in jobless claimsAfter hitting a multi-year low, jobless claims have hit a 6-month high and are above a 52-week average.That tends to lead to a rise in the unemployment rate, an input to many recession models. But a nascent uptrend in ... [...]

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Sentiment vs Earnings; Massive Buy Programs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Sentiment vs earningsThe S&P 500’s flat return in 2018 so far has been due to the growth in earnings being offset by a drop in sentiment. The price/earnings ratio for the index has declined about as much as earnings have grown, like 2011.Other ... [...]

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Low Volatility Beats High Beta; Worst-Case Corrections; Bad BID

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rush to safetyInvestors have moved into “safe” low-volatility stocks at the expense of “risky” high-beta ones. The ratio between the two just hit a two-year high, which has preceded some trouble for stocks over the shorter-term.Over the ... [...]

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Rallying In A Downtrend; Peak Earnings

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rallying in a downtrendStocks are revisiting the 200-day average, which is now sloping down.If we go back and look for times when the 200-day average was rising for at least three months, then turned lower and the S&P was below its average for at ... [...]

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Gridlock For A Disliked President

Most of the hand-wringing over today's U.S. midterm elections is just noise. Even the best pollsters have only a shaky grasp on potential results, and even then, trying to guess what that means for markets is foolhardy. The reaction following the 2016 election is the exception proving that ... [...]

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A Non-Recessionary Correction; The Trend Is No Longer Your Friend

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Non-recessionary pullbackMost recession models show a low probability of an imminent economic recession. If we use a simple, non-optimized, real-time model, it’s currently showing 0% probability.In that kind of environment, 10% pullbacks in stocks ... [...]

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Money-Losing IPOs Debut Amid Low Uncertainty Ahead Of Elections

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Comfortable with losing moneyBankers have brought the most money-losing IPOs to market since 2000. When we looked at this in the spring of 2015, even then it wasn’t as extreme as it is now. The bankers can’t do this unless the public accepts the ... [...]

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Growth Better Than Unemployment As Warnings Cluster

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Growth > unemploymentThe President’s triumphant gaffe about a 100-year high in economic success masked a relatively common signal. When GDP growth was higher than the unemployment rate, stock returns were in line with random, suggesting there was ... [...]

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Goldman Model Predicts Trouble As Grains Get Hit

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Model troubleA Goldman Sachs model incorporating five fundamental factors shows a high risk of an imminent bear market in stocks.When the model reaches its current level, the average S&P 500 return over the next six months was negative 6%.No gains ... [...]

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Stocks Shrug Off Economic Reports Amid Buying Follow Through

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shrugging off disappointmentEconomic reports haven’t kept up with economists’ outlooks, but it hasn’t mattered as the S&P 500 has rallied to all-time highs. When stocks hit a 200-day high and economic surprises a 200-day low, future returns were ... [...]

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Mid And Small Caps Break Out As Financial Conditions Ease Amid VIX Decline

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Large caps lag mids and smallsThe S&P Mid Cap and Small Cap indexes have hit new 52-week highs this week while the large-cap S&P 500 still has not.The lagging S&P 500 tends to catch up, with all three indexes usually rallying in the months ... [...]

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Yield Curve Favors Defense As ETF Investors Flee Developed Markets

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Curve favors the defenseA narrow yield curve has led to good returns in defensive sectors. By the time the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields got as low as it was in July, future returns in the dollar were muted to negative, leading ... [...]

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A Record Beat Rate For Earnings As Investors Flee World ETFs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A record beat rateS&P 500 companies have beat earnings expectations to a record degree. As we near the two-week mark of earnings season, about 90% of companies reported better-than-anticipated earnings. That’s more than 15% above the average beat ... [...]

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Good Growth During Earnings Season As Nasdaq Leads

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A great season of earningsEarnings season is expected to bring another quarter of impressive growth.When that growth is high, however, earnings season carries more risk than reward.Tech is leading the chargeThe Nasdaq Composite is leading the four ... [...]

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Economic Surprises Turn Negative, So Do Investors And Gold

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A slip in surprisesU.S. economic surprises have ended their longest-ever positive streak, after being positive since last September.The ends of other long positive streaks led to mixed returns in stocks, excellent ones in bonds, and poor in ... [...]

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Corporate Bonds Suffer As Small Caps Shrug Off Economic Reports

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bloodbath in bondsCorporate bonds have been hammered, with Tuesday seeing the worst breadth readings since 2008 and 2013. Those two crises (the financial meltdown and the end of QE) were the only ones that matched Tuesday’s carnage.Forward returns ... [...]

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Small Caps Shine As Financial Conditions Tighten And VIX Drops

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small caps trying to drag us higherThe small-cap Russell 2000 is within 1% of an all-time high, while the S&P 500 is still more than 5% below.That’s usually taken as a universally good sign for stocks in general. It hasn’t been that easy, ... [...]

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Bad Eurozone Surprises As Crude, Dollar Rally

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The euro doesn’t like negative surprisesRecent months have seen the worst economic results relative to expectations in the eurozone since 2011. Only three other periods in 15 years have seen results as bad as this. All three led to weakness in the ... [...]

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Economic Uncertainty During Midterm Summers As Stocks Form Lower Highs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Midterm summer bluesThe summers of midterm election years are weak more often than not. Supposedly, it’s supposed to get even worse if investors are uncertain about government economic policy.Going back to 1900, however, that doesn’t seem to be the ... [...]

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Bond Aren't Buffering Stocks As Earnings Surprises Near Record

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Balanced portfolios see unusual lossesOver the past few months, there was a 5-year high in days where stocks sold off and bonds did too.That raises worries that the typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio allocation will suffer as bonds don’t lift when ... [...]

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Earnings Season As A Savior As Stocks Get Stuck

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good earnings as a saviorAnalysts expect robust growth in earnings as companies report them over the next four weeks. Good growth is also expected to save stocks as they just corrected ahead of earnings season.This has been a shaky leg upon which ... [...]

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Tepid Earnings Reaction As SPY Loses Shares

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Investors shrug at good earningsS&P 500 companies have reported excellent earnings growth, after several quarters that also saw growth.While those earnings were reported to investors, though, the S&P 500 index barely budged after all the ... [...]

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Hated Bonds As U.S. Economy Out-Surprises Eurozone

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Survey says: sell bondsRecent surveys of diverse investor groups show nearly universal expectations for higher rates (lower bond prices). An average of different surveys is the most extreme since 2005.Other extremes mostly led to lower interest ... [...]

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Shades Of '87 In Stock/Dollar/Rate Moves As 50-Day Fails

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shades of ’87 (among others)Over the past year, stocks have rallied, and the dollar has collapses as the Fed raises rates.That is similar to 1987, but there were also other dates that didn’t lead to nearly such dramatic results. After similar ... [...]

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Easy Conditions As Traders Short More VIX

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Easy conditionsA major measure of national financial conditions just reached a historic level of easiness because “it’s all good.”This is despite a sharp jump in interest rates, which is peculiar behavior. That seems like it should be a good sign, ... [...]

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Yield Inversion As Utilities Correct

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Yield inversionThe yield on 2-year Treasury Notes is now higher than the dividend yield on the S&P 500. That’s the first time in 10 years, causing consternation among some who only look back that far, since it preceded the financial crisis.But ... [...]

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No Negative Surprises As Indexes Hit Highs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No negative surprisesEvery major Economic Surprise Index across the world is now positive. From the U.S. to China, Europe to Emerging Markets, all regions have had economic reports that have exceeded economists’ expectations.When we’ve had such ... [...]

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Good Times As S&P Shrugs Off Financials

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good timesLow stress and easy financial conditions have led to high confidence, low savings and good economic surprises.That combination of positive factors has never been seen to the degree we’re enjoying now. Prior “good times” led to mixed ... [...]

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Amazon's Optimistic Group-Think

Ahead of Amazon's (AMZN) earnings today, the Wall Street Journal noted that Wall Street analysts haven't been this positive on the stock since the internet bubble:But the stock trades above $800, having surged about 70% since February. About 90% of analysts who cover Amazon rate the stock a ... [...]

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Amazon Upgrade As A Sign Of A Top

Price changes for popular stocks tend to get lost in the usual market noise, but one of them is sticking out today. Cantor Fitzgerald raised their price target on Amazon (AMZN) to $1,000.That rang some bells for investors who lived through the late 1990s, when Wall Street analysts tripped over ... [...]

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Positive Markets On Nonfarm Payroll Miss

Even though the Nonfarm Payroll report (NFP) missed expectations, traders are responding in a positive way, or at least "positive" in the traditional sense. Stocks gapped up, gold up, and bonds down.Let's take a look for other times the report missed expectations and yet stocks and gold gapped ... [...]

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Big Payroll Miss

The Nonfarm Payroll report was released this morning with a shocking miss. Out of 91 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the number of workers added was more than 50k below the lowest estimate. So, yeah, shocking. Source: BloombergIn response, stocks opened modestly lower. It was enough to stoke ... [...]

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Gapping Down On A Nonfarm Payroll Miss

The widely-watched Nonfarm Payroll report has been released, missing expectations by adding fewer jobs than expected, and stocks are showing a minor negative reaction.Let's go back and look at other times that SPY gapped down at least -0.5% on a morning that the payroll report missed ... [...]

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The Most Frightening Chart

The biggest challenge in analyzing markets today is separating wheat from chaff, signal from noise. The vast majority of the time, what we see, hear and read is noise. And most of that is geared toward fear.A prime example is the recessionary doomsaying that peaked in February. It was easy to ... [...]

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Large Loss On Nonfarm Payroll Day

Assigning a reason to why a market is up or down on any particular day is typically a fool's errand. That's especially the case with stocks when so many inputs are coming together in a highly liquid market.An initial knee-jerk reaction to an economic report or news event can often be pointed to ... [...]

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Nonfarm Payroll Reaction

The Nonfarm Payroll report showed a positive surprise in job additions, leading to a minor bump up in equity futures.Over the past year, there have been 6 other positive surprises, three of which also led to gains in S&P 500 futures in the immediate aftermath of the next 5 minutes.Curiously, ... [...]

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