Posts tagged as Flows


ETF Traders, Foreigners Jump In Right Before Momentum Stock Shock

2019-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Momentum stock shockAfter last week’s huge drop in momentum stocks, and shift toward value from growth, those shares fell a bit more and have since rebounded. ...

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Thursday Color - Russell vs S&P Volatility, Summation Extremes, IWM Inflow, AAII Bulls

2019-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - FOMC Bias, Emerging Recovery, Japan, Fund Flow

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

2019-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - GS Bear Market, Consumers, Rydex, Earnings, Seasonality

2019-09-09 | Troy Bombardia


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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper

2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


A Daily Report won't be published today, so we're sending this Bulletin. This is what a typical premium note would contain. I post a note during most trading days, and Troy does as well after U.S. hours.We've also unlocked all other premium posts from this week:Friday - Switching from stocks to ... [...]

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Gold Has Only Done This 4 Other Times

2019-08-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Stocks down, bonds upHeading into the last few sessions of the month, the total return on the S&P 500 was on track for one of its worst in almost 30 years ...

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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks gyrate ahead of what is likely to be an exodus of traders from their screens over the next couple of sessions.Stocks Down, Bonds UpAugust has been a bad month for stocks and wonderful one for bonds, leading to one of the widest divergences between them ... [...]

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Timing A Move Out Of Stocks, As They Whip Around And Bond Spreads Blow Out

2019-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond blowoutThe riskiest segment of the corporate bond market has been suffering, while safer bonds have been less of a focus for sellers.That raises the ...

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What I'm looking at - Put/Call spike, Rydex flows, Rydex breadth, Economic Surprise & bonds

2019-08-22 | Troy Bombardia


The stock market continues to bounce within a range. Here's what I'm looking at.Put/Call spikeWhile the stock market rallied more than 0.8% yesterday, the Total Put/Call ratio spiked to the highest level since this pullback/correction began. This is extremely rare because the stock market and ... [...]

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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

2019-08-17 | Troy Bombardia


I usually write an overview of the markets each week that combines the technical & fundamental indicators I look at:Technicals (1-2 months): no clear edge in either direction. If I had to guess, I think there’s a 60% chance that the S&P makes new lows. Not decisive.Technicals (3-6 months): ... [...]

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A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash

2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gamma, Dislocations, Merval & Hang Seng, Emerging Fund Outflow, Bond Optix

2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we get some relief from the daily threat of trade dispute escalations. We'll have to see if this holds into the close and triggers another big up thrust day from the recent low.New IndicatorsYou can now view the HiLo Logic Index for both the NYSE and ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Opening Volatility, New Lows, Sector Extremes, Big Outflows

2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders push the indexes into rebound mode.BoingFutures are ramping higher this morning after an after-close plunge, triggering all kinds of overnight volatility. During a generally rising market, this would be the largest opening rebound after a big down day ... [...]

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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash

2019-07-25 | Jason Goepfert


NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico

2019-07-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Leaking AssetsThe major indexes (excepting the Russell 2000) have risen toward fresh highs over the past week, but ETF traders don't seem to care. Assets in SPY, DIA, and QQQ have all declined over the past 5 sessions.Shares outstanding in all 3 ... [...]

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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


I won't be publishing a Daily Report this afternoon, so this post is being sent as a Bulletin to all users. This is similar to what is included in the premium notes published most days.Bully BullyEven after a choppy week, the smallest of options traders have sustained their belief in a continued ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to position themselves ahead of a deluge of earnings.Earnings ParadeMuch is being made of the potential slowdown in earnings as companies begin to report in earnest over the next couple of weeks. We've seen in years past that "earnings ... [...]

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Tech Has Led - What That Should Mean For The Summer

2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


Similar sector first halvesThe S&P 500 has enjoyed great gains through the first half of the year, as have most of its sectors. Looking at other years when the S&P gained at least 10% through June that had the most similar returns among sectors, the next couple of months tended to be ... [...]

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Monday Color - Short-Term Optimism, Funds Vs Options, Lagging Small Caps And Surprises, Bulls Return, Bonds

2019-07-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets suffer their usual post-holiday slide.Short-Term ExtremesWhile stocks didn't surge last week, they did hold their gains. And whoever was still trading over a holiday week was pretty optimistic it was going to continue.The shortest-term indicators we ... [...]

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets meander on a post-breakout summer Friday.Sell Stocks, Buy BondsThat seems to be the mantra among fund investors, anyway. On Thursday, SPY, HYG, and LQD all hit new highs. Yet investors pulled more than $4 billion from SPY, and added nearly $2 billion ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Everything Rallies, Bond Flow and Vol, Within 1%, Energy, France

2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Everything RalliesTuesday provided some interesting cross-currents, allowing assets to rise that normally provide some balance to each other. It was a bad day to be short pretty much anything - stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, ... [...]

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Why Aren't Hedgies Buying?

2019-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


Another near-thrustEnough stocks have risen during the past two weeks, with enough volume flow, that it has nearly triggered another Zweig Breadth Thrust.Like we’ve seen with a lot of indicators over the past month or so, what’s most notable about these readings isn’t necessarily what they’re ... [...]

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Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen

2019-06-14 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a choppy Friday.Bond FlowOver the past 8 sessions, corporate bond ETFs LQD, HYG, and JNK have seen steady inflows. To a near-record degree, in fact. That happened in the midst of a nice run in January of this year, with no ill effect. But it also ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.ReversalsYesterday I made a brief mention of the reversal pattern over the past two days, where SPY hit its highest level in a month intraday but reversed to close in the bottom third of its range both days.For those wanting more detail, here are ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gaps Up, Bond Flow, Weird Volatility, Sector Highs

2019-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another gap-up morning.Another GapNear the depths of pessimism a couple of weeks ago, we saw that traders were extremely anxious, pushing stock futures lower almost every morning. They've reversed the tide, now futures are gapping up every day.This will be ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Bond Volatility And Optimism, Gold, Flows, Tech Breadth

2019-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


Since we won't be publishing a Daily Report today, we're going to send this Premium Note to all members.This is similar to what's published most days around midday. It's essentially my notebook of things I'm looking at during the day, some of which make it into the Daily Report. There tends to ... [...]

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Why This Has Been A Healthy Pullback

2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


From new high to downtrendBarely a month after it was sitting at an all-time high, the S&P 500 fell far enough and fast enough to close below its 200-day average.This is one of the index’s quicker turnarounds from being at a multi-year high to falling below its average. When it had spent at ... [...]

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Large Fund Outflow In An Uptrend

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


The latest data from the Investment Company Institute shows that equity mutual funds suffered an outflow of more than $42 billion in April alone, one of the largest losses ever for a single month. As a percentage of assets, that’s only about 0.40%, but even that is still fairly large.What’s ... [...]

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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another big gap down day.Gap ManAnother unexpected Tweet by the president pushed stocks lower immediately on Thursday and that anxiety has carried over into this morning. Stock futures are on track to gap down by more than 1%, the latest in a long string ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Junk Flow, Stocks vs Bonds, Anxiety Alerts, Sector Breadth

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a lackluster rally attempt day.Fleeing JunkInvestors have pulled more than $1.7 billion from the two primary high-yield (junk) bond funds, HYG and JNK, over the past two sessions. That's tied for the 3rd-most outflow in their history of a little over a ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

2019-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Momentum ShiftMarketwatch notes that there has been a long-term momentum shift in stocks that has had an unerring ability to lead to higher prices. This last happened in 2016, according to a popular technical indicator.If ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Gaps Again, Sector Divvies, Flight To Safety

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another weak day so far.More PanicYet another gap down open this morning, as the weeks-long pattern of pre-market panic continues. We've already looked at this a few times, but there's perhaps a better way to consider this.The gaps we've been seeing at ... [...]

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Are You Panicking Like Everyone Else?

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


Panic-level sellingWe’ve already touched on the persistent negative gaps traders have faced most mornings over the last couple of weeks. It’s worth noting again, because the gaps are now on par with panic-level conditions over the past 35 years.Other than 2008, future returns were excellent. ... [...]

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Foreigners Are Selling, And That's A Good Sign

2019-05-17 | Jason Goepfert


Home country biasThe latest data from the Treasury shows that foreign investors have been selling U.S. stocks at a record pace. They’ve sold an average of $17 billion per month for the past year.That accounts for about 0.05% of the total market cap of U.S. equities, the most in 30 years. During ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Big Outflows, More Hedging, Falling Momo

2019-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.FlowsOn Tuesday, there were outflows among a large number and variety of equity funds. A bunch of them lost more than $25 million in assets on the day, led by the two most popular.That continues a trend for both SPY and QQQ. Across all of the major ... [...]

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The Dow Is Being A Dud

2019-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


Dow dudThe Dow Industrials dropped below the 50-day average for the first time in months. When it loses its trend after such a long time, and when so near a multi-year high, it has tended to snap back. It was an even better sign for the S&P 500.It was also the only one of the “big four” equity ... [...]

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IPO Fervor Returns

2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


Overseas out, bonds inNear the end of April, investors fled non-U.S. equity funds, with the 2nd-largest outflow in five years. That has been a good contrary indicator in the past.At the same time, they moved more into bonds, with other measures confirming the increasingly consensus sentiment ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - More Bond Bulls, Hefty Flows

2019-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a weak day.More Bond BullsWe saw on Tuesday that U.S. consumers showed a big jump in expectations that bond yields would drop (prices rise), and that's been a bad bet lately. More evidence comes from a survey we've looked at a few times over the years, ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss

2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Kanye Wouldn't Be HappyThe WSJ, via BofAML, notes that companies aren't mentioning positive keywords much on their earnings calls. They searched through call transcripts over the past 16 years and show that there have been few mentions of ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Flows, Breadth Extremes, Shanghai

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this Friday.Argentinian AngstThe WSJ notes that consumer confidence in Argentina has taken another hit due to political instability. I know next to nothing about the country, but it's at least worth noting that over the past 6 months, consumer ... [...]

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Does The Low Volume Really Matter?

2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


Low-volume rallyEach of the past three weeks has seen the S&P 500 inch ever closer to a new high. At the same time, investors have grown increasingly comfortable, as volume continues to decline and is now more than 10% below its yearly average.It’s entirely normal for volume to ratchet higher ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Nice RunBulls have been pushing things, with a long streak of up days and new 100-day highs. For the past 7 sessions, the S&P 500 fund, SPY, has gapped up at the open. We haven't seen that kind of pre-market enthusiasm since January 2018.It's ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Breadth ReviewThe jump on Monday triggered a number of new extremes. Every material stock rose above their 10-day moving averages, which we don't see too often. If we add some context and look for times it triggered when XLB rose above a declining ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.CautiousAccording to the latest monthly BofA fund manager survey, big money managers are still not showing any optimism toward equities as a general asset class, with only a 3% overweight. It has been declining consistently for the past 2 years and ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this rally-fading day.ExpirationI think we've been looking at this tendency for more than 15 years now, and surely others were before that. After one of the quadruple witching days, especially in March, stocks have struggled for the next week. Not sure ... [...]

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Tepid Fund Flows With Record Exodus From Financials

2019-03-06 | Jason Goepfert


Tepid equity flowThe S&P 500 has jumped more than 12% over the past two months, yet inflows to equity funds continue to be tepid.This is one of the few times that stocks have performed so well over a two-month span, with negative equity flows during the rally. Future returns in the S&P were ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this mixed day.China ShinesChinese stocks continue their march upward, which bodes well for the longer-term. We saw in previous reports how a 20% rise from a low in the Shanghai Composite had led to more long-term gains when buyers continued to press ... [...]

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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions

2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ... [...]

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SPY Losing Assets As It Rallies

2019-02-19 | Jason Goepfert


One of the charts pinging around Finance Twitter shows cumulative ETF flows in SPY ebbing even as the fund rallies. That certainly has been the case, and it certainly is unusual.If you scroll through the comments on that Twitter thread, not something I would usually recommend, they are almost ... [...]

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Nasdaq Escapes Bear Market As Investors Pull Out

2019-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


Escaping the bearThe Nasdaq Composite has ended its bear market, at least according to two metrics. Unlike its rallies during the 2001 and 2008 bear markets, this time it has managed to exceed the 61.8% retracement of the decline. And it has rallied 20% from its low, the accepted definition of a ... [...]

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Record Outflow As Mom-And-Pop Sit On The Sidelines

2019-02-04 | Jason Goepfert


Record flowComprehensive data on mutual fund flows confirm that the massive loss in December for equity funds was the largest on record, dating back 35 years. As a percentage of assets, it was exceeded only by July 2002 and October 2008 in recent history.Money market funds saw huge inflows, but ... [...]

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ETF Traders Not Buying The Rally; Nasdaq Is First "Big Four" Above Average

2019-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not buying itIn the three weeks following the December low, leveraged ETF traders have abandoned long funds while flowing into inverse (short) funds, suggesting they’re betting against the rally. When we look at the largest leveraged index ETFs ... [...]

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Breadth Thrust From The Low; Record Stock And Bond Fund Outflows

2019-01-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get me inDuring rally attempts in November and December, one worry was that there were no strong thrusts in breadth. Both failed. During this latest rally, there have been two such days, so strong that there are few historical precedents.Maybe it’s ... [...]

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Earnings Recession; Investors Reduce Exposure; Record Outflows

2019-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Recession talkConcerns are rising about a recession. Even if we don’t see an economic one, we may be in store for an earnings recession.The data is not showing that as likely, but even if it happens, it does not necessarily mean that stock prices ... [...]

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Newsletters Are Shorting; Breadth Swings; No Highs; Big Outflow; Buying Stampede

2018-12-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get shortyWhile individual investors in the AAII survey became pessimistic a week ago, this week there were more than 50% bears in the survey for the first time in 5 years. That has made a different in other surveys, too. According to one measure ... [...]

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Investors Flee Equities; Highly-Correlated Declines; December Selling

2018-12-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaving en masseInvestors yanked $46 billion from equity funds this week. Even accounting for the usually mid-December outflow, as a percentage of total fund assets, this is the largest outflow in at least 15 years.After the other weeks when there ... [...]

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Yield Curve Inversion; Intense Selling; November Flows

2018-12-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Upside downThe yields on 2- and 3-year Treasuries are now higher than 5-year maturities, an inversion of the short end of the yield curve.This tends to precede an inversion of the more common 2-year vs 10-year yields. But there has been a long lead ... [...]

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No Flight To Safety In Bonds; Investors Have Turned Pessimistic

2018-11-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bond market movesBonds sold off along with stocks during the last two big pullbacks this year, showing no flight to safety. That is unlike 2016 when bonds rose as stocks declined.Historically, when bonds declined along with stocks during a selloff, ... [...]

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Smart Money Moves In As Dumb Money Leaves

2018-10-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money moves inTraders who tend to buy into declining prices spotted an opportunity over the past week. Hedgers in the major equity index futures contracts covered nearly $19 billion of their short position, one of the largest one-week changes ... [...]

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Comfort Nears Record High As ETF Inflows Surge

2018-09-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A comfortable timeConsumers are about as comfortable as they’ve been at any time in 30 years according to the latest survey from Bloomberg. Other periods of exceptionally high comfort led to trouble in stocks, but years later, while gold did ... [...]

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XLK And XLY Spike In Assets

2018-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


It seems like there's a sudden desire to bet on a cyclical resurgence. But not really - it's mostly just a reflection of the looming rebalance to account for the new Communications Services sector.On September 21, the XLY and XLK funds will be adjusted to account for the new fund, so we're going ... [...]

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Dollar Positions Hit Highs As Investors Leave Equity Funds

2018-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Non-dollar pain hits year highA measure of positioning in the dollar has reached an extreme level amid its highest level in a year just as it nears its seasonal peak.Forward returns in the buck were weak, especially in the next 3-6 months, while ... [...]

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Yield Curve Favors Defense As ETF Investors Flee Developed Markets

2018-08-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Curve favors the defenseA narrow yield curve has led to good returns in defensive sectors. By the time the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields got as low as it was in July, future returns in the dollar were muted to negative, leading ... [...]

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Risk Appetite Wanes As Small-Caps' Trend Ends And Funds See Outflows

2018-07-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lack of risk appetiteDiscretionary stocks are at a multi-month low relative to defensive Staples.That sign of risk-off behavior is unusual with the S&P near a high but has not been a good excuse to sell stocks.Another trend endedThe small-cap ... [...]

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A Record Beat Rate For Earnings As Investors Flee World ETFs

2018-07-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A record beat rateS&P 500 companies have beat earnings expectations to a record degree. As we near the two-week mark of earnings season, about 90% of companies reported better-than-anticipated earnings. That’s more than 15% above the average beat ... [...]

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Correction Roadmap As Leveraged ETF Bets Soar And Copper Flails

2018-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correction roadmapNearing six months, the current correction is about in line with others since 2009. It most closely resembles 2015, which at this point was about to test its lows.A big leveraged betAssets in leveraged ETFs betting on a rally have ... [...]

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Options Traders Go All In As Investors Flood Into TIPS

2018-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Options traders go all inOptions traders have rushed into bullish strategies at the expense of more conservative ones. Total call volume last week mushroomed to 32 million contracts, the highest since late January, while put volume was about ... [...]

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ETF Investors Stay Home As Mom & Pop Go Back To Stocks

2018-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors stay homeFlows into domestic ETFs have swamped that of overseas funds over the past 4 weeks.The other times it happened to this degree, world stocks started to outperform the S&P.Mom & pop ignore safetyIndividual investors are showing ... [...]

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Fund Flows Into Ultra-Safe Bonds As Companies Enjoy Record Trust

2018-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors are loving bond fundsBond funds have dominated the ETF inflow list lately, especially short-term government Treasury funds. The Technology sector is the only one that has seen large, and consistent inflows among sectors.Broad ... [...]

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