Posts tagged as Economics


Futures traders' odd position in Treasuries

2020-10-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Emerging market surprises gain momentum

2020-09-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Metals and bonds give different picture as excess liquidity spikes

2020-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Dollar falls into correction for the first time in years

2020-09-01 | Jason Goepfert


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U.S. stocks are valued more than almost half of global economic output

2020-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


The market capitalization of U.S. stocks is larger than more than 40% of global gross domestic product (GDP), the 2nd-highest amount in 60 years.

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Stocks are worth more than the whole economy

2020-08-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Industrial production gears up

2020-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


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The yield curve has done this 4 times in 40 years

2020-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


Based on consumer attitudes, it looks like the Treasury yield curve is entering a super-steepening cycle.

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The impact of the yield curve's potential super-steepening cycle

2020-06-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Even more speculation as breadth continues to improve

2020-06-13 | Jason Goepfert


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We're officially in a recession

2020-06-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Economists have become too negative

2020-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


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What negative interest rates might mean for stocks and the dollar

2020-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: More economic weakness as stocks hold up

2020-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Peak claims

2020-05-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Macro model flips to cash

2020-05-04 | Jason Goepfert


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ISM new orders crater

2020-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Looking backward, economic data plunge

2020-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Surge in money growth does not have a consistent record

2020-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Sentiment recovers amid an economic plunge

2020-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


Our proxy of the CNN Fear & Greed model has recovered into neutral from deep pessimism. Economic surprises have plunged, not good for the dollar.

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Economic surprises suffer historic plunge

2020-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Initial signs of a recovery, even with weak breadth and bad economic data

2020-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Bad surprises and the probability of a bear market

2020-03-30 | Jason Goepfert


A Goldman Sachs model estimating the likelihood of a further 20% decline is on track to plunge. Economic surprises have made a historic drop.

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Weekly Wrap: Historic plunge, compressed stimulus, and massive buying thrusts

2020-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Bear market probability is on the verge of plunging

2020-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


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This is (and isn't) like 2008

2020-03-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Fed emergency rate cut asset reactions

2020-03-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Financial conditions have never been easier...or bubbly

2020-02-18 | Jason Goepfert


The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is at a practical maximum reading. Growth stocks have surged relative to value stocks.

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Leading Indicators Lag As S&P Suffers Key Reversal

2020-01-27 | Jason Goepfert


The Leading Economic Indicators is showing the worst growth in years. The S&P 500 suffered a key reversal day from a high.

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What's Wrong With The Smart Money?

2019-10-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Another one bites the dustThe Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest ...

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Econo-Dread, Options Fear, Money Tree, Dollar Impact On Earnings Season, Transports, Hated Commodities

2019-10-18 | Jason Goepfert


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USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad)

2019-10-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Leading the worldMost of the ways the U.S. has been surprising the world have not necessarily been the good kind. When it comes to economic reports, though, ...

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Monday Color - Breadth whipsaws, small traders, surprise spread, bond sentiment

2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Investors' cash cushion is near the lowest in 30 years

2019-10-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.No cash cushionIn September, individual investors reduced their cash position to one of the lowest levels in 30 years. They’re not alone. Other groups of ...

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S&P stocks are starting to roll over, but...

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Manufactured pessimismA popular economic data series has tumbled into recession territory. The ISM Manufacturing survey has cratered over the past year and ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - ISM plunge, currency flight to safety, eurozone surprises

2019-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Foreigners Flood In As Hard Economic Data Rebounds

2019-09-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Foreign flowForeign investors have started to come back to U.S. stocks after a year of net selling, as we saw earlier this week.Among other major markets, ...

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