Posts tagged as Currencies


Junk Bond's Warning Sign

2019-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond market warningStocks have held up well lately, more or less, but high-yield (junk) bonds are under-performing relative to other parts of the corporate ...

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What I'm looking at - dividend yields, gold & USD, wholesalers' sales, oil positioning, 50 dma breadth.

2019-10-15 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - VIX Put/Call, ISM vs S&P, USD trend, small cap earnings

2019-10-03 | Troy Bombardia


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Tuesday Color - ISM plunge, currency flight to safety, eurozone surprises

2019-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - Small traders, dollar sellers, S&P momentum, quarterly run, energy bonds

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Consumers haven't been this depressed in 8 years

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers’ concernsThis month, U.S. consumers decided that the economy was headed for a rough patch and stocks were likely to follow. To the greatest extent ...

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Stocks and the dollar are "joined at the pip"

2019-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Joined at the pipThere usually isn’t much of a correlation between movement in stocks and the dollar. As much as investors want to assign a narrative linking ...

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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

2019-09-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


A Daily Report won't be published today, so we're sending this Bulletin. This is what a typical premium note would contain. I post a note during most trading days, and Troy does as well after U.S. hours.We've also unlocked all other premium posts from this week:Friday - Switching from stocks to ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - DAX, Put/Call, all-or-nothing, gold:silver ratio, AUDUSD

2019-08-29 | Troy Bombardia


With the U.S. stock market still up significantly year-to-date, other countries' stock markets have performed more poorly. Here's what I'm looking at.DAXLast week we looked at why small caps are underperforming large caps. In a nutshell, earnings matter, and small cap earnings are deteriorating ... [...]

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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

2019-08-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

2019-08-14 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we go through yet another volatile session.CurvyMight as well get to it, since it's going to be a popular topic today. Another part of the Treasury yield curve inverted (or threatening to do so depending on the data source). The one that matters the most ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

2019-07-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on another day that's finding buyers not sticking around.Gold HedgeBloomberg notes that per Goldman Sachs, investors may be better off hedging against uncertainty with the yen than with gold. That's based on how pricey each of them are according to the ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Quiet, Fed Talk, Pound, Copper, Bond Optimism

2019-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders react to the latest Fed talk.All QuietThe WSJ notes that stocks haven't been moving much lately, with the S&P 500 notching its 21st day without a 1% or larger move. This is encroaching on some of the longer streaks in its history, especially when the ... [...]

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1/2 Of Bitcoin Bubble Signals Have Triggered

2019-06-25 | Jason Goepfert


Bitcoin bubble babbleSentiment on bitcoin is jumping, but is below other euphoric peaks. Barely half of “bubble” signals have triggered, unlike past peaks when 100% of them did.By the time sentiment reached its current level, the coin typically took off on a last gasp buying frenzy, notching ... [...]

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Monday Color - Easy Conditions, Canadian Surprises, Gold Rush, Sector Breadth

2019-06-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a slow start to the week. For stocks, anyway. Gold is going gangbusters.Easy Does ItWith the rise in stocks, relative calm in currency markets, and drop in interest rates, financial conditions have continued to ease. As stocks hit new highs late last week, ... [...]

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The Everything Rally

2019-06-24 | Jason Goepfert


The everything rallyTotal return stock and bond indexes are hitting all-time highs at the same time. They cover an array of stocks and bonds, suggesting extreme breadth of buying interest, as noted by Bloomberg.When they’ve all hit records together, it has been an especially good longer-term ... [...]

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets meander on a post-breakout summer Friday.Sell Stocks, Buy BondsThat seems to be the mantra among fund investors, anyway. On Thursday, SPY, HYG, and LQD all hit new highs. Yet investors pulled more than $4 billion from SPY, and added nearly $2 billion ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico

2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.StretchedThe massive move in bonds continues to get a lot of attention, and for good reason. We saw the other day that it's relatively unusual to see a new high in bonds (low in yields) with an explosion in volatility, and that has been a good sign ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far this morning. When there's a large or notable gap I prefer to get these out early, even if today's looks to be fading as we head into the open.GappyStock futures are on track to show a relatively large positive gap up this morning as traders show some ... [...]

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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another big gap down day.Gap ManAnother unexpected Tweet by the president pushed stocks lower immediately on Thursday and that anxiety has carried over into this morning. Stock futures are on track to gap down by more than 1%, the latest in a long string ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.5 StraightWe saw at the end of last week that the Dow Industrials had just suffered its 5th straight negative week, a rarely-seen bout of selling pressure given the index is so near its high.It's not the only index. The Shanghai Composite also ... [...]

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5 Signs Of Anxiety

2019-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


Anxiety signalWhile stocks have struggled, bonds and the dollar have both been rising. Whether one is helping the other is beside the point – primarily it suggests nervousness on the part of investors.When those two markets have behaved like this over the past 40+ years, stocks have usually ... [...]

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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss

2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Kanye Wouldn't Be HappyThe WSJ, via BofAML, notes that companies aren't mentioning positive keywords much on their earnings calls. They searched through call transcripts over the past 16 years and show that there have been few mentions of ... [...]

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Hedge Funds Just Won't Buy

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


Hesitant hedgiesHedge funds have not been buying this massive rally. Across different hedge fund strategies, there is very little, or even negative, correlation to the movement in stocks, suggesting they are under-invested or even betting against the rally.This is unusual, though it did happen ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk

2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Dollar BetsYesterday's report noted the multi-year breakout in the dollar, which has had a tendency to pull back most of the time over the next 2-6 months. The long-term trend has been about flat, so breakouts have had a tendency to be unsustainable ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a curiously strong day.RecoveryIn spite of overwhelmingly optimistic sentiment in some models, buyers continue to persist. For months, the most positive thing about stocks was the price activity (and breadth from December through February), and that ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Super ConfidentDumb Money Confidence has entered a "super extreme" phase. In the 20 year history of the model, only two distinct time periods can compare - the recoveries from the last two major bear markets. That was a good long-term sign of ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.GapDumb Money Confidence is holding above an extreme of 80%, and buyers were enthusiastic enough to push a pre-market gap more than 0.5% above the prior close. That's only happened five times before, all of which pulled back during the next week.If ... [...]

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An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

2019-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ... [...]

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Economic Surprises Bad For Dollar

2019-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. has dropped below -50, what could be considered a "terrible" extreme. Economic reports have come in below economists' expectations for months.While that means economists will start lowering their expectations for future reports, thus increasing the ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today. Confident TradersThe weekly summary of options trading across all U.S. exchanges shows that the smallest of traders are still buying calls to open at a pretty aggressive clip. They spent 39% of their total volume on purchasing speculative call ... [...]

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Dollar Fails And Transports Keep Lagging

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


Dollar failureThe U.S. dollar hit a new high in early March, and optimism was high. That proved to be a headwind again, and the buck has since reversed to close at a 30-day low.This is an unusually quick reversal and quick reversals in the dollar like this have been a negative sign. During the ... [...]

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Dollar Reverses From 52-Week High

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


The buck has had a tough time of it lately, and Wednesday’s update from the Fed did not help. The dollar has reversed hard in the past two weeks, going from a 52-week high to a 30-day low in almost record time.It has been unusual to see such a rapid reversal in the dollar, and its future short- ... [...]

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Retail Investor Confusion As The Vol Trade And Bitcoin Roll

2017-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


Stocks are recording another up day, on lower volume and with a smaller range. Maybe all of the quant folks have made patterns like this useless - they have certainly seemed to lose some effectiveness in recent years - but this is a classic rebound pattern from a large loss. Historically, there ... [...]

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Breadth Thrust In Euro Stocks

2017-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


With the big rally in major stocks in the eurozone (at least in euro terms), the most impressive breadth readings in the world have now been recorded in those stocks.Looking at an array of indicators across time frames, we can see that there has been a huge block of buying interest in the stocks ... [...]

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King Dollar

2016-12-02 | Jason Goepfert


The Optimism Index for the U.S. dollar has been at an extreme since mid-November and the it has started to struggle as it often does in December.The strong trend hasn't gone unnoticed by mainstream media. The latest cover the The Economist shows a triumphant Schwarzenegger-esque buck with the ... [...]

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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

2016-11-10 | Jason Goepfert


As investors sort through the large moves made across markets and sectors following the election, the knee-jerk reaction among traders was that there would be clear winners and losers based on a change in administration, and some of the moves were extreme.Knee-jerk reactions are often misleading ... [...]

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Big Currency Declines

2016-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


With the story of the day (so far) being the collapse in the British pound, several members have asked whether a major currency has ever suffered such a big drop when it was already at a low level.The answer is yes, many times. Including the pound. Including recently.Because of the various ways ... [...]

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US Dollar Reversals Show A Mixed Record

2016-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


One of the big stories today is in the US Dollar, which is reversing strongly from what had been a new 52-week low:That looks great on a chart, and sentiment on the dollar is poor. Traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds are among the least-invested in a strong dollar in years:That's helping ... [...]

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Quick COT Update

2016-02-12 | Jason Goepfert


The latest data on futures contract positioning has been released by the CFTC, showing some fairly large changes, especially in the metals.The charts below show the past three years of positions for the major contracts. These are money manager and/or speculator positions, which is opposite from ... [...]

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US Dollar Suffers Major Loss

2016-02-03 | Jason Goepfert


The US dollar is getting hammered so far today, with the Dollar Index dropping nearly -2%, among the largest one-day declines since 1975.It is on track for more than a -2.5% loss over the past three sessions, which is of course also one of its largest losses in that time span. What's notable ... [...]

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