Posts tagged as Commodities


Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism

2019-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Gold hasn't done this for a decade

2019-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Heavy hedgingThe smallest of options traders continue to protect themselves against a market decline to an unusually heavy degree. Last week, they spent ...

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What I'm looking at - MACD sell signal, Business Climate Indicator, VIX, different surprise indices, gold's 4Q rally

2019-10-01 | Troy Bombardia


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Why this is different than other bull market peaks

2019-09-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bear market momentumThe big drop in momentum stocks earlier this month triggered the theory that the long bull market in stocks was likely over, since ...

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Thursday Color - Gold flow and open interest, bond flow, VIX call buying, Hang Seng rollover

2019-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - South Korean exports, HiLo, gold's top?, no daily movements, India's surge

2019-09-24 | Troy Bombardia


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Gold/Dollar correlation turns positive

2019-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Oil's Shocking Jump Is Fooling People

2019-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Shocking moveThe jump in crude oil on Monday was one of the most shocking in 30 years.For energy stocks, a 4 standard deviation jump in oil prices tended to ...

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Tuesday Color - Big Managers Get Bullish, Gold/Dollar Correlation Spike, Repo Rate, Volatility Premium

2019-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - Germany, Smart Money Index, volume-based breadth, oil spike, Equity Put/Call

2019-09-16 | Troy Bombardia


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Energy sector after oil's 1st 4 s.d. rise in > 6 months during a down market

2019-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Oil Shock

2019-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Gold's Shocking Drop

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Gold’s bull runETF traders have consistently poured money into gold funds, even during Thursday’s big drop, which was a “shocking” decline.It started to fall ... [...]

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Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a so-far quiet start to the week.Returning Risk AppetiteOver the past few weeks, we've gone over many signs that investors are seriously anxious. To an extreme and surprising degree, given that stocks were holding up relatively well.Now we're starting to see ... [...]

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Gold after 52-week high and > 25% gain then 2 standard deviation loss

2019-09-06 | Jason Goepfert


When gold hit a 52-week high after gaining at least 25% over the past year, then suffers a “shocking” loss, investors tended to sell first and re-evaluate later.See the September 6 report for more detail and other discussions about gold's prospects. [...]

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What I'm looking at - Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, semiconductors, breakout, NAAIM, copper reversal?

2019-09-05 | Troy Bombardia


The S&P has finally broken out from its month-long range. Here's what I'm looking at.Citigroup Economic Surprise IndexThe Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has turned positive after being negative for 143 consecutive days. This was an extremely long streak, and economic data is now starting to ... [...]

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Wall Street Is The Most Confused In 20 Years

2019-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The Street is behind and confusedWall Street analysts have underestimated the growth in S&P 500 company earnings growth for a year, one of the longest ... [...]

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Imminent Recession (So They Say)

2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.An unequal monthAn index that equally-weights each of the stocks in the S&P 500 badly under-performed the capitalization-weighted version of the index that ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper

2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks bounce back after a lessening of geopolitical tension, for the moment at least.Sad StreetThe WSJ notes that expected forward earnings for the S&P 500 is expected to show barely any growth in the quarters ahead according to Wall Street analysts. That's ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - ISM PMI, 60/40 portfolio, XLU, gold:silver ratio

2019-09-04 | Troy Bombardia


The S&P 500 remains stuck in the 2930-2940 range. Here's what I'm looking at.ISM manufacturing PMIAs Jason noted yesterday, the widely followed ISM manufacturing PMI has fallen below 50. This means that it will be a bearish factor for the Macro Index starting on October 1. Both the WSJ and ... [...]

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What I'm looking at: stocks vs. gold, fractals,McCulley, copper, yield curve

2019-08-30 | Troy Bombardia


Stocks continue to fluctuate along the lines of trade war news. Here's what I'm looking at.Gold vs. stocksWith precious metals rallying during recent "trade war fears" and "recession fears", we've seen a renewed interest in gold and silver that we haven't seen in years. As usual there are the ... [...]

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Gold Has Only Done This 4 Other Times

2019-08-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Stocks down, bonds upHeading into the last few sessions of the month, the total return on the S&P 500 was on track for one of its worst in almost 30 years ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - DAX, Put/Call, all-or-nothing, gold:silver ratio, AUDUSD

2019-08-29 | Troy Bombardia


With the U.S. stock market still up significantly year-to-date, other countries' stock markets have performed more poorly. Here's what I'm looking at.DAXLast week we looked at why small caps are underperforming large caps. In a nutshell, earnings matter, and small cap earnings are deteriorating ... [...]

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Consumers Vs. Investors As Silver Pops

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers vs. investorsThe latest Consumer Confidence reading shows that U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate an extremely positive outlook on their ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks gyrate ahead of what is likely to be an exodus of traders from their screens over the next couple of sessions.Stocks Down, Bonds UpAugust has been a bad month for stocks and wonderful one for bonds, leading to one of the widest divergences between them ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - CNN Fear & Greed, Chemical Activity Barometer, silver's 2 year high, SLV Optix, SKEW

2019-08-28 | Troy Bombardia


With the stock market still volatile amid heightened "recession fears", gold and silver continue to rally. Here's what I'm looking at.CNN Fear & GreedAs the stock market continues to swing sideways with continuous talk of an impending "recession", various sentiment indicators continue to show ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Social Pessimism, Big Drops, Brazil Breadth, Ag Bears

2019-08-27 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we head into what is likely going to be one of the slowest-moving periods of the year.Socially AwkwardDepending on who you ask and who you follow, Twitter is either an amazing resource to find real-time ideas and collaboration among some of the smartest ... [...]

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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

2019-08-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - economic conditions, German manufacturing, Equity Put/Call, New Highs & Lows, Dollar vs. Gold

2019-08-20 | Troy Bombardia


With the stock market still volatile on a day-to-day basis, here's what I'm looking at:Economic ConditionsThe University of Michigan publishes a Current Economic Conditions Index that asks consumers how they view current economic conditions in the country. The survey includes more than 500 ... [...]

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Panic-Level Selling Last Week As Bonds Hit Historic Extreme

2019-08-19 | Jason Goepfert


Safe haven heavenFriday provided some relief, but the past few weeks have been rocky for stocks. In response, investors moved aggressively into havens like bonds and gold. The 3-week change in the total return on bonds and gold are so far above that for stocks that it’s neared a 30-year ... [...]

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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

2019-08-17 | Troy Bombardia


I usually write an overview of the markets each week that combines the technical & fundamental indicators I look at:Technicals (1-2 months): no clear edge in either direction. If I had to guess, I think there’s a 60% chance that the S&P makes new lows. Not decisive.Technicals (3-6 months): ... [...]

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One Of These Curves Is Not Like The Others

2019-08-15 | Jason Goepfert


Bulls yieldStocks plunged on Wednesday, with the most common excuse being renewed fears of recession due to a further inversion in the Treasury yield curve. Between various maturities, 60% of the curve is now inverted. That preceded a prompt and severe drop in stocks in 2000, but the three other ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

2019-08-14 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we go through yet another volatile session.CurvyMight as well get to it, since it's going to be a popular topic today. Another part of the Treasury yield curve inverted (or threatening to do so depending on the data source). The one that matters the most ... [...]

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Monday Color - 8 Straight 1%-ers, Large Calls, Corrections, Gold Buyers, Emerging Momentum

2019-08-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another tough start to a week.Lots Of WigglesThe Financial Times notes that this has been a particularly jarring time for traders, with now 8 straight sessions undergoing at least a 1% intraday change in the S&P 500. Historically, this is a long streak but ... [...]

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Friday Color - Lows Recede, Summation Rollover, Bad Ag, Bond Bulls (Again)

2019-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders deal with another tremor on trade tweets.RecoveringWhen monitoring for extremes, there are typically three strategies for implementation:1. When it first registers an extreme2. When it registers an extreme, then price triggers a technical entry3. When ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders try to put Monday's carnage behind them.Island TimeIt's still early, of course, but stocks are making a valiant attempt to carve out an "island" bottom. This happens when traders panic and force an unfilled gap to the downside (Monday in our current ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

2019-07-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on another day that's finding buyers not sticking around.Gold HedgeBloomberg notes that per Goldman Sachs, investors may be better off hedging against uncertainty with the yen than with gold. That's based on how pricey each of them are according to the ... [...]

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200 Reasons Why The Hindenburg Omen Matters

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


Warning signsFor the first time since October 2018, there are hints of trouble brewing beneath the market. While major indexes have been at or near all-time highs, under the surface there are more and more stocks losing momentum, and there has been a split with many securities at 52-week highs ... [...]

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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


I won't be publishing a Daily Report this afternoon, so this post is being sent as a Bulletin to all users. This is similar to what is included in the premium notes published most days.Bully BullyEven after a choppy week, the smallest of options traders have sustained their belief in a continued ... [...]

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Friday Color - Gold Momentum, Internal Warnings, Mexico

2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this summer Friday that's having some issues trying to hold any buying interest.UnstoppableGold reacted very well to the newly renewed projections of a larger rate cut at the next Fed meeting, breaking out again to another new high. So far, it has managed to ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Fading 'Mo, Energy Stock Drop, Titanic Signal, Cotton, Euro Junk

2019-07-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what's starting out to be a minor hangover from yesterday's pressure.Breadth ReviewAcross sectors and indexes, breadth underlying the recent rally has been ebbing, and most of the McClellan Oscillators we track are now below zero.This means that the ... [...]

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An Economic Indicator Is Breaking Out - Why That's Bad For Gold Bugs

2019-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings down, stocks upEarnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to be flat or negative from the same quarter last year. Even with the slowest growth in 3 years, stocks have been ticking to new highs.There was a hint of “whistling past the graveyard” in those rallies, as the S&P ended up ... [...]

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Baltic Dry Index Breakout To New Highs

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


The Baltic Dry Index has broken out to a new multi-year high, typically assumed to be a positive sign of global economic growth. The more demand there is for shipping, the more the shippers can charge to transport goods.In reality, it's not that clear, and has been an inconsistent indicators for ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to position themselves ahead of a deluge of earnings.Earnings ParadeMuch is being made of the potential slowdown in earnings as companies begin to report in earnest over the next couple of weeks. We've seen in years past that "earnings ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Quiet, Fed Talk, Pound, Copper, Bond Optimism

2019-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders react to the latest Fed talk.All QuietThe WSJ notes that stocks haven't been moving much lately, with the S&P 500 notching its 21st day without a 1% or larger move. This is encroaching on some of the longer streaks in its history, especially when the ... [...]

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This Is One Of Tech's Quickest Recoveries

2019-07-03 | Jason Goepfert


New highs, but...The S&P jumped to a record high along with several other indexes on Monday (and Tuesday) but fewer stocks were coming along for the ride both days. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE and within the S&P itself has shrunk from when the indexes moved toward new highs in June.That ... [...]

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Why Gold Bugs Shouldn't Fear A False Breakout

2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


Risk-on hasn’t caught onMonday’s session was almost totally risk-on, even if the magnitude faded during the day. Most “risk-on” assets rose, which was the case on Friday, too. But over the past 200 days, risk-off sessions have dominated, reversing the trend that led up to the fall of 2018.Since ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Gas, Wall St Strategists, Sector Breadth, Lagging U.S.

2019-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks meander ahead of a big international meeting and summer holidays.Gas StocksYesterday, we saw that natural gas was the most-hated commodity, and over the past 15 years it has had a strong tendency to rebound over the next month or so.If we look at how ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Tweets, Confidence Spread, Gold, Surprise Impact

2019-06-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks meekly try to recover from yesterday's selling.Trump TweetsWhatever your opinion of him, there is no arguing that the president is a careful monitor of the stock market and it's collective opinion of him. In the past week, he's taken an increased ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Less Confident, Relative Lows, Bond Optimism, Gold Surge

2019-06-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a mostly weak day. Markets are likely going to be held to the latest posturings and headlines ahead of and during the upcoming G-20 meeting.Less ConfidentThe latest Consumer Confidence survey came in way below economists' expectations, which won't help the ... [...]

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Monday Color - Easy Conditions, Canadian Surprises, Gold Rush, Sector Breadth

2019-06-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a slow start to the week. For stocks, anyway. Gold is going gangbusters.Easy Does ItWith the rise in stocks, relative calm in currency markets, and drop in interest rates, financial conditions have continued to ease. As stocks hit new highs late last week, ... [...]

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Gold Just Did Something For The 1st Time In 25 Years

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


Gold’s near-record streakGold broke out to a multi-year high for the first time in more than 2,000 days, which was nearly its longest streak in 40 years.The ends of other super-long streaks without a new high all saw the metal trade lower over the next couple of months. The dollar tended to be ... [...]

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Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen

2019-06-14 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a choppy Friday.Bond FlowOver the past 8 sessions, corporate bond ETFs LQD, HYG, and JNK have seen steady inflows. To a near-record degree, in fact. That happened in the midst of a nice run in January of this year, with no ill effect. But it also ... [...]

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What The Fed's First Cut Has Meant

2019-06-13 | Jason Goepfert


First cutThe probability that the Fed will cut rates is rising. It’s still only about a 20% chance in June but more than 80% in July. That will end the longest-ever streak with steady or rising rates. Following these “first cuts”, stocks have done either poorly, or really well, with no middle ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.ReversalsYesterday I made a brief mention of the reversal pattern over the past two days, where SPY hit its highest level in a month intraday but reversed to close in the bottom third of its range both days.For those wanting more detail, here are ... [...]

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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight

2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.High-LightOne of the most notable developments of the rally to end last week was the expanding number of securities that erased their May pullbacks. Nearly 10% of issues on the NYSE reached a 52-week high on Friday, the most since January ... [...]

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A Big Jobs Miss As Highs Surge

2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


JobsWe saw on Thursday that a big miss in the ADP report possibly meant a big miss in the Nonfarm Payroll report today, and if it dove to a 5-year low, would be a bad sign for stocks. The report missed, but wasn't bad enough to trigger the 5-year low. So at least there's that.But the report did ... [...]

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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

2019-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


Like Tuesday, I won't be publishing a Daily Report, but will instead send this as a Bulletin. This is typically what's sent out around midday as a Premium Note - it's a look at my notebook of things I'm watching throughout the day, some of which then make it into the Reports.The summary portions ... [...]

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Buyers' 1-2 Punch For Stocks

2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


A one-two rallyThe S&P 500 fell to a 50-day low on Monday, and the charts didn’t look good, but they hid a lot of underlying potential. Both Monday and Tuesday saw eager buying pressure under the surface, and Tuesday’s one-day jump in the S&P was the largest in nearly six months.When the index ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far this morning. When there's a large or notable gap I prefer to get these out early, even if today's looks to be fading as we head into the open.GappyStock futures are on track to show a relatively large positive gap up this morning as traders show some ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Bond Volatility And Optimism, Gold, Flows, Tech Breadth

2019-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


Since we won't be publishing a Daily Report today, we're going to send this Premium Note to all members.This is similar to what's published most days around midday. It's essentially my notebook of things I'm looking at during the day, some of which make it into the Daily Report. There tends to ... [...]

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Monday Color - Cycle Peak, De-Risking, Silver, Breadth Extremes

2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another day failing to hold a rally.Mixed MessagesDepending on the data set, or even on the day, the fundamental picture for markets looks just as muddled as the technical one. One of the biggest worries is that the economy may be tipping into recession, ... [...]

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Copper And Margin Debt Not What They Seem

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Copper bowled overCopper prices have dropped nearly 10% from their peak, which is unnerving those investors who trust it as a leading indicator for global demand.As a predictor for future stock returns, declines like this have been mixed, with usually positive returns. For copper itself, it ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - Overseas Carnage, Sweet Sugar

2019-05-07 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far this morning.We saw last week that selling impulses similar to what triggered then have tended to occur near major peaks in the Shanghai Composite. While there are some long-term positives associated with the kind of momentum move that index enjoyed off ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Gapped, Slapped, And Beaned

2019-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this trying-to-recover day.GappyStocks suffered a rough open, which is not something we often see after being at or very near a 52-week high at the close of the previous session. Using the S&P 500 futures over the past 33 years, it has happened only ... [...]

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Why Beans Should Bounce

2019-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


No oomph in OscillatorThe McClellan Oscillator hasn’t been able to get above zero even as the S&P 500 and other indexes tick to new highs on multiple days.Over the past 57 years, this has been a negative sign of underlying weakness for stocks, though the sample is small, and the most recent ... [...]

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Soybean Optimism Below 20

2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


In soybeans, the Optimism Index has dropped below 18 for one of the few times in 28 years. When dropping below 20, and especially below 18 like it is now, beans had a strong record of rebounding. [...]

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Breadth Breathes As A Bearish Candle Engulfs Oil

2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth takes a breatherIn January, breadth momentum was so impressive that the McClellan Oscillator held above 50 for over a month. Since then, it hasn’t climbed above that level even as stocks made great gains.This is a divergence that has triggered near several important market peaks, but the ... [...]

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No Spike In New Highs - What It Means

2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


A sparse new high listThe S&P 500 has been hanging near its former high, but relatively few securities on the NYSE have been able to push above their former peaks. It’s now been 300 days since more than 7% of issues on the NYSE hit a new high, ranking as one of the longest stretches in 50 years. ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.This Little Piggy Goes To MarketHog futures have soared. Corn has not. The ratio between the two is now at an extreme.There are a large number of factors that go into the price gyrations of both markets, but historically there has been a loose ... [...]

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What Happens When Oil Recovers From A Plunge

2019-04-05 | Jason Goepfert


A crude recoveryAs markets sold off in December, crude oil futures fell more than 30% below the 200-day average, one of the largest deviations since their inception in 1986. This week, they made a complete recovery, now trading above the 200-day.Other times the commodity recovered from such a ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Crude RecoveryThe WSJ notes that crude oil has finally managed to recover above its 200-day average after a long period below. At its depths, it was more than 30% below its average, a truly severe decline.When it has closed above its average after ... [...]

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An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

2019-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ... [...]

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Economic Surprises Bad For Dollar

2019-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. has dropped below -50, what could be considered a "terrible" extreme. Economic reports have come in below economists' expectations for months.While that means economists will start lowering their expectations for future reports, thus increasing the ... [...]

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Who's Afraid Of An IPO Surge?

2019-03-30 | Jason Goepfert


New issuesThe IPO market is thawing, and we could be on track for a record-breaking year. The only other years that investors absorbed this much in new issues, stocks stumbled the next year. But when accounting for inflation and the growing market value of all equities, it’s not such a worry.If ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what is yet another fade of early-morning strength.Mushed MetalOne of the most extreme moves this week has been in palladium, which knocked a quick 15% off its high. It's sometimes suggested as a leading indicator for stocks (some theory about it being an ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this recovery day.Waning ConfidenceToday's release of the Conference Board's latest readings on consumer confidence revealed that attitudes about present conditions are at the lowest point in nearly a year. This is coming on the heels of what had been ... [...]

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Breadth Momentum Crests As FX Volatility Plunges

2019-03-19 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth surge has crestedAfter seeing a historic run in the momentum of stocks’ underlying breadth in January and February, indicators are showing diverging trends. That’s to be expected after readings like January’s, and historically these “negative divergences” haven’t been so negative. Over ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this rally-fading day.ExpirationI think we've been looking at this tendency for more than 15 years now, and surely others were before that. After one of the quadruple witching days, especially in March, stocks have struggled for the next week. Not sure ... [...]

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Catching Up

2019-03-11 | Jason Goepfert


I'm taking some time for spring break with our kids, but here are some things that are piquing my interest right now.Nothing has really changed the past few days. We're still seeing mostly mixed equities with the rebound so far today, and a relatively poor risk/reward profile over the ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-03-06 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this weak day.Ebbing MomentumThe S&P 500 has finally closed below its 10-day moving average for the first time in at least 40 sessions. That's one of its most persistent short-term trends since 1928.At the same time, it has flattened out. Over the past ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.The VIX closed under 15 for the first time in months on Wednesday. That has rarely led to further losses over the next several weeks.Ignore the latest date on the tables, it should read “2019-02-15”. The rising volatility didn’t necessarily ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Gold continues to rally. GLD just put in its best day in over a month while closing at a 9-month high. Lately, that's led to some backing-and-filling over the next couple of sessions, especially in recent years.Not working in gold's favor is ... [...]

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Possible Earnings Contraction; Mom And Pop Roar Back; Dollar Momentum

2019-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


Earnings contractionCompanies in the S&P 500 have shown 10 quarters of year-over-year growth in operating earnings, but that streak is in danger of ending. Estimates for this quarter continue to come down.If that’s going to be the case, then traders start to anticipate slower growth, and returns ... [...]

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U.S. Dollar Shows Short-Term Momentum

2019-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


One of the best performing assets lately has been the U.S currency, and while intermarket relationships are always in flux, a rising dollar has been a concern for investors across many asset classes. The U.S. Dollar Index just managed its 7th straight gain, one of its best streaks in 40 ... [...]

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Nonfarm Payroll Beat

2019-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


The Nonfarm Payroll Report (NFP) is widely believed to be the most important economic report in the U.S., or at least the one with the most sway over markets.This morning's release showed a huge positive surprise, "positive" being many more jobs added than expected. There was a big revision down ... [...]

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Most Stocks Are Rallying; Put Open Interest Is Rising

2019-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks are rallyingEven though the S&P 500 is nearly 10% below its high, its Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has rebounded so much it’s almost at a new high.That’s a positive divergence, but historically there hasn’t been much positive about it, ... [...]

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Highly Correlated Markets; Non-Recessionary Bear Markets

2019-01-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Highly correlatedOver the past 50 days, markets have been closely following each other. The moves in the S&P 500 have been tight with commodities, yields, and overseas stocks.This has usually happened during times of stress, and long-term returns ... [...]

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High Correlation Among Assets

2019-01-23 | Jason Goepfert


Over the past couple of months, the correlation between assets domestic and overseas has spiked. The S&P 500 has had a 50-day rolling correlation above 0.8 (on a scale from -1.0 to +1.0) to 10-year Treasury yields, commodities, and world stocks. As noted by the Wall Street Journal, spikes in ... [...]

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Fund Managers Long Dollar

2019-01-21 | Jason Goepfert


According to the latest BofA Merrill Lynch survey, global fund managers are extremely optimistic on the prospects for the U.S. dollar. There is a definite contrary bias to this particular data set, with a negative suggestion for the dollar and positive for gold.We wouldn't normally include this ... [...]

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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ... [...]

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Discounts On MLP Funds; Wall Street Looks To 2019

2018-12-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Partnership pessimismOne of the better ways to gain exposure to master limited partnerships (MLPs) is through closed-end funds (CEFs), which often swing to premiums or discounts to the value of their underlying holdings based almost purely on ... [...]

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Fear And Loathing In Bonds; Energy Apathy

2018-11-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fear and loathing in junk bondsHigh-yield bonds had a very bad day on Tuesday, with extremely poor breadth and sentiment.On Tuesday alone, nearly half of all high-yield bonds declined on the day, they went from an almost even number of 52-week ... [...]

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Crude Collapse

2018-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A crude monthCrude oil has suffered one of its most epic collapses in 30 years and is the most oversold ever. It has lost a quarter of its value from a 52-week high in only 30 days, one of the fastest drops ever. And its Relative Strength Index has ... [...]

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Stock Returns After Crude Collapse

2018-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


In the Daily Report on Tuesday, we took a look at several studies showing the historic collapse in crude oil prices. As the drop in that market continues to reverberate, broader financial media is taking the usual fear-laden tack that it will lead to a jump in high-yield bond defaults (which is ... [...]

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A Weak Retracement; A Dollar Milestone

2018-11-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A weak retracementAt its high point of the bounce during the past two weeks, the S&P never managed to retrace more than 61.8% of its pullback from the September peak.It has now started to fail and fall back to the lower end of its range. While ... [...]

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Oil's Near-Bear Market And 7 Straight Losses; Election Toss-Up

2018-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Oil’s very bad monthCrude oil is nearing a 20% decline from its October peak, a bear market according to most definitions.Optimism has since dropped below 40 for the first time in over a year, but it’s still well above prior bouts of pessimism when ... [...]

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Consumers Are Comfortable As Gold Drops Amid Smart Money Big Short

2018-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Signs of intense comfortAnother survey is showing a high level of confidence among U.S. consumers. The Conference Board, University of Michigan and Bloomberg surveys are now all near multi-decade highs. When the two oldest are taken together, the ... [...]

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Palladium Rally Not Helping Autos As Warnings Keep Mounting

2018-09-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Autos sink despite a “should be” good signThe S&P 500 Auto sector has sunk to a 52-week low despite strong palladium prices, which are at their highest in months.While that’s usually interpreted as a good sign for the sector, it was not, and mostly ... [...]

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Bulls Double Bears Even As Lumber Tumbles

2018-09-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bulls continue to double bearsBulls among newsletter writers in the Investor’s Intelligence survey are more than twice as numerous as bears. This is the 98th straight week, by far the longest ever, showing a historic faith in the uptrend. The ... [...]

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Consumers Can't Lose As Oil Ratchets Up New Highs

2018-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.That can’t-lose feelingConsumers in the U.S. have almost never felt as ebullient as they do now. They are comfortable and confident to a degree rarely, if ever, seen before. The few times in 50 years they’ve been as confident according to the ... [...]

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Yields Not Nudging Dollar As Black Swans Get Priced In

2018-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dollar dips despite rate riseThe yield on Treasuries has jumped, but it’s not resulting in a perkier dollar, even though the two usually move in broadly the same direction.The two markets do sometimes decouple, and that has usually led to more ... [...]

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Small Starts To Struggle As Confidence Leads To Dollar Peaks

2018-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small hasn’t been so beautifulWhile leading year-to-date, small-caps have been lagging the S&P over the past few months. The ratio of the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 is very close to falling to a multi-month low, a worse sign for small-caps than ... [...]

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Emerging Market Contagion As Hedgers Bet Against Dollar

2018-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Contagion spreads despite calm crudeStories with “contagion” worries are spiking to the highest level in 5 years.The cause, a collapse in emerging markets, is despite a calm market in crude oil, which has usually acted as a balm on those emerging ... [...]

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Everything "Emerging" Has Declined As S&P Holds Firm

2018-09-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Nowhere to hideEmerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have all declined steadily this year.The three asset classes have declined for an average of 150 days since they peaked, ranking among the longest, broadest declines in 30 years. Similar ... [...]

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Goldman Model Predicts Trouble As Grains Get Hit

2018-09-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Model troubleA Goldman Sachs model incorporating five fundamental factors shows a high risk of an imminent bear market in stocks.When the model reaches its current level, the average S&P 500 return over the next six months was negative 6%.No gains ... [...]

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Dollar Fails As S&P Momentum Stalls

2018-08-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A dollar failureThe U.S. dollar ended a long streak without a new high in early August by closing at its first 52-week extreme in more than 400 sessions.Since then, it rallied more than 1%, then failed by closing below its breakout price, which has ... [...]

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Smart Money Rushes To Safe Havens As World Stocks Rally

2018-08-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Hiding in safe havens“Smart money” hedgers have established extreme positions in safe haven assets including gold, Treasuries, the yen and the VIX.Other times they piled into the havens, it led to fine performance in stocks, and better returns in ... [...]

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A Tepid Rally As Coffee And Sugar Sour

2018-08-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A really, really tepid rallyIn the past 90 days, there have been only 3 breadth thrusts, a tepid run as the S&P 500 nears a new high.Rallies with few thrusts did worse going forward than rallies with more of them, but even so the returns were still ... [...]

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Industrial Metals Near Bear Market As Miners Collapse

2018-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Industrial metals suck, tooPrecious metals’ lesser-followed kin are nearing a bear market, worrying investors as they are traditionally seen as being leading indicators of economic activity.Once in a bear market, industrial metals tend to keep ... [...]

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Precious Little Optimism As Emerging Markets Sink Toward Bear Market

2018-08-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Precious little optimismOptimism on gold, silver, and platinum now ranks among the lowest in 27 years.The combined Optimism Index on the three metals has been lower only a handful of days. The few other periods of historic pessimism led to good ... [...]

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Dollar Positions Hit Highs As Investors Leave Equity Funds

2018-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Non-dollar pain hits year highA measure of positioning in the dollar has reached an extreme level amid its highest level in a year just as it nears its seasonal peak.Forward returns in the buck were weak, especially in the next 3-6 months, while ... [...]

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Treasury Yields Break Tight Range As Metal Sentiment Sours

2018-07-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Treasury yield range expansionThe Bollinger Bands on 10-Year yields tightened the most since 2007 as bonds drifted for a month.But then yields broke decisively to the upside, which has usually led to still-higher rates.Precious metal ... [...]

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Gold Sentiment Sours As High Yield Bonds Near Positive Change

2018-07-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gold sentiment soursOptimism on gold dropped to one of its lowest levels in its 7-year bear market, and the lowest since December 2015.When holding through all days when sentiment was this low, gold’s returns over the next few months were ... [...]

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The S&P's Long Correction As Gold Shorts Press Their Bets

2018-07-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A really long correctionThe S&P is at day #110 after falling into a correction, surpassing its usual length of around 90 days. Other times an S&P correction lasted this long without either setting a new high or falling into a bear market, it ... [...]

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Low Asset Volatility As Gold Nears Correction

2018-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not much movementVolatility in stocks, bonds, and currencies is among the lowest in 25 years.All three have declined over the past month and collapsed since February. The few other similar periods led to gains in stocks, gold, while the dollar ... [...]

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S&P's 6-Month Analogs As Gold Diverges From Inflation

2018-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Highly correlatedThe S&P’s path over the past six months has some highly-correlated analogs. They showed some weakness over the next couple of months, then strength. The bubble peak in 2000 came close but didn’t make the top 10 of most ... [...]

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Correction Roadmap As Leveraged ETF Bets Soar And Copper Flails

2018-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correction roadmapNearing six months, the current correction is about in line with others since 2009. It most closely resembles 2015, which at this point was about to test its lows.A big leveraged betAssets in leveraged ETFs betting on a rally have ... [...]

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Financials' Pre-Earnings Decline As Emerging Markets Struggle While Oil Rallies

2018-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Pre-earnings declineFinancials dropped 4% in the months leading up to the current earnings season, which begins this week as banks start to release quarterly earnings.Similar selloffs since 1950 preceded rallies over the next month, though it ... [...]

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Copper Drops To 200-Day Low As Value Lags And Gold Sinks

2018-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Copper slides to 200-day lowCopper closed at its lowest level since last July, a worry for believers in “Dr. Copper.”Its record for stocks is mixed, but for copper itself, it wasn’t a good sign.No valueOverseas investors have favored Momentum over ... [...]

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Economic Surprises Turn Negative, So Do Investors And Gold

2018-06-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A slip in surprisesU.S. economic surprises have ended their longest-ever positive streak, after being positive since last September.The ends of other long positive streaks led to mixed returns in stocks, excellent ones in bonds, and poor in ... [...]

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World Markets And Platinum Fall As Utilities Streak Higher

2018-06-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.World stocks hit 2018 lowWorld stocks have hit a 200-day low while the S&P 500 is more than 8% above its own 200-day low. Similar setups led to a rebound in World stocks over the next 2-4 weeks.Compared to the S&P, World stocks outperformed every ... [...]

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Gold Suffers Death Cross As Financials Stumble

2018-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not a Golden CrossGold’s 50-day average finally crossed below its 200-day for the first time in a year, ending one of its longest-ever streaks with a more positive medium- than long-term trend.The metal tended to trend lower in the months after ... [...]

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Small Options Traders Get Aggressive As Soybeans Fall

2018-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small traders become aggressiveThe smallest of options traders have become remarkably aggressive in betting on a market rally.Their volume of opening call purchases is nearing record highs, last seen in 2000 and 2007. They are spending more than ... [...]

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Gold Bugs' Bad Day As Cap-Weighted Indexes Take Over

2018-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gold bugs’ ruined weekendHeading into the weekend, gold futures suffered their largest loss in over a year, to a multi-month low. When it happened it May, the selling marked an exhaustion and gold worked higher. Most times it did something similar, ... [...]

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Euro Death Cross As Down Days Swamp Up Days, Staples Stabilize

2018-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Euro Death CrossFor more than a year, the euro’s 50-day average has been above its 200-day average.That trend has now ended, after one of the longest streaks in the currency’s history. The end to other long streaks led to further weakness in the ... [...]

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Few S&P Stocks Above Average As Copper Baffles Bulls

2018-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The biggest divergence since 2000As the S&P 500 hits a 50-day high, too few of its members are trading above their short-, medium, and long-term averages. The percentage of stocks trading above their averages is far below what we usually see.The ... [...]

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Lots Of Up Days Without Much Impact As Dollar Hits Overbought And VIX Spikes

2018-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.All icing, no cakeThe S&P showed a gain on 57 out of the first 100 days this year, one of its best “first 100 days” ever.Even so, it showed a meager year-to-date gain, suggesting that all those up days didn’t pack much punch. Similar years led to ... [...]

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Energy ETF Traders Rush In As Animal Spirit Indicator Hits A High

2018-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF traders rush into EnergyAssets in the primary ETFs focused on the Energy sector have reached $32 billion, a new all-time high. That’s up 20% in just 30 days, among the most rapid increases since at least 2010.Similar surges led to declines for ... [...]

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Transports Shrug Off Oil As Smart Money Bets On VIX

2018-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Transports shrug off oil’s riseThe Dow Transports have rallied strongly over the past 30 days even as oil jumped twice as much.Transports have rallied enough to close at a multi-month high. When the sector has shrugged off surging oil prices ... [...]

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Energy Stocks Hit New Highs As Volatility Traders Pile In

2018-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Energy stocks enjoying new highsMore than 40% of stocks in the S&P 500 Energy sector have reached a 52-week high.That’s the most in more than a year and has preceded declines in the sector in recent years.ETF traders bet on a spike in ... [...]

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Small Caps Lead As Staples Lose Relevance And Energy Can't Lose

2018-05-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The leading indexSmall cap stocks, via the Russell 2000 index, are leading the other major indexes in the race to new highs. It’s the only index that has reached a 52-week high in the past 30 days.Other times it led to new highs, it was an ... [...]

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Smart Money / Dumb Money Spread Goes Negative As Gold Falls

2018-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Spread between Smart/Dumb Money shrinksThe spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is negative for the first time in months.By the time it has inverted after other long periods above zero, stocks struggled short-term but not long-term. ... [...]

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Breadth Reaches New High As Oil, Stocks Rally Together

2018-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A breakout in breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has made a new all-time high.Since 1940, that has led to a smaller chance of a large decline going forward, and a smaller average drawdown. When the S&P has lagged the A/D Line like now, it ... [...]

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Bad Eurozone Surprises As Crude, Dollar Rally

2018-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The euro doesn’t like negative surprisesRecent months have seen the worst economic results relative to expectations in the eurozone since 2011. Only three other periods in 15 years have seen results as bad as this. All three led to weakness in the ... [...]

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New Dollar Trend As Newsletters Keep Selling

2018-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A new day for the dollarThe U.S. dollar has closed above its long-term average for the first time in a year. Other times it ended a long streak in a downtrend, it continued to rally in the shorter-term.Its attempts at a new trend led to horrid ... [...]

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Bond Aren't Buffering Stocks As Earnings Surprises Near Record

2018-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Balanced portfolios see unusual lossesOver the past few months, there was a 5-year high in days where stocks sold off and bonds did too.That raises worries that the typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio allocation will suffer as bonds don’t lift when ... [...]

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Seasonal Overview

2018-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


As we head into a new month, it's always interesting to take a look to see if there are any consistent tendencies among the markets and sectors we watch. Outside of commodity contracts, the concept of seasonality is iffy, especially in recent decades. So for many stock indexes and even sectors, ... [...]

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A "Bearish" Pattern As Traders Flee Dollar Funds

2018-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.“Bearish” engulfingThe price pattern in the S&P does not look promising, according to textbook technical analysis. Friday arguably was a bearish engulfing pattern that suggests weak buying interest and eager sellers.It has not been a successful ... [...]

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Smart Money Drops As Traders And Economy Favor Dollar

2018-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money collapseMonday nearly saw a 20-year record decline in the Smart Money Index that compares first hour vs last hour trading. The past 30 days has consistent seen selling in the SMI, suggesting dumb money buying and smart money ... [...]

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Gold Miners Lag As Investment Managers Sell

2018-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Miners’ minor monthsGold mining stocks have underperformed gold prices by more than 10% over the past couple of months.Due to their higher volatility, this is considered a negative for gold prices going forward. There is some modest truth to this, ... [...]

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Major Volatility As Gold/Silver Ratio Climbs

2018-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A correction-enderMonday’s reversal completely erased the losses from Friday, marking the third day in a row with a 2% move.Coming after pullbacks in bull markets, sessions like Monday tended to lead to more gains in the medium-term. The last three ... [...]

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Unstable Staples Lead To Energy Bounce

2018-03-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Staples are unstableConsumer Staples hit a 52-week low on Wednesday even while the broader market holds up. The only times in more than 90 years we’ve seen this to this degree were in 1993 and 1999, which led to gains over the medium-term.Times ... [...]

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Lopsided Volume Swings As MLPs Suffer Pessimism

2018-03-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody out, then in, then out againDuring the past month, volume has been gyrating wildly between losing, winning, then losing securities. A 3-day average of the Up Volume Ratio keeps swinging from one extreme to the other.During uptrending ... [...]

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A "Good" Correction As Silver Specs Give Up

2018-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good vs bad correctionsIn these first two weeks following the Dow’s drop into a correction, it has followed the path of many “good” corrections. Those are times when the Dow fell 10% from a high, then no more than a further 7% during the next ... [...]

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Shades Of '87 In Stock/Dollar/Rate Moves As 50-Day Fails

2018-02-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shades of ’87 (among others)Over the past year, stocks have rallied, and the dollar has collapses as the Fed raises rates.That is similar to 1987, but there were also other dates that didn’t lead to nearly such dramatic results. After similar ... [...]

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VIX Panic Subsides As Smart - Dumb Spread Widens

2018-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Buy the panic, or waitBuying into a panic is hard, and much advice suggests waiting until the panic has subsided.Looking at large spikes in the VIX “fear gauge”, we look at returns following the initial spike versus waiting. Buying into the panic ... [...]

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Leveraged ETFs Skyrocket As Junk Funds Ebb

2018-01-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Never more leveragedAssets in leveraged long ETFs are going parabolic while leveraged inverse funds dwindle. There is now almost $4 in long funds for every $1 in inverse funds, a record exposure level.Relative to the gains in the S&P 500, those ... [...]

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Dollar Doldrums Leads To Commodity Streak

2018-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dollar doldrumsThe dollar has only been able to rise twice in nearly three weeks, tied for its worst streak since it entered its trading range in 2015.Similar selloffs since then have led to quick rebounds, but longer-term history is mixed and not ... [...]

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Mining Momentum And Gas Rally

2017-12-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mining momentumThe Metals & Mining industry is in the midst of a historic run. Over the past 30 days, it has enjoyed a cluster of up days seen only 4 other times since 1990.Each of the others led to short-term weakness.Gas powered rallyNatural gas ... [...]

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Options Worries As Energy Breadth Surges

2017-12-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Trouble signs from the options marketTraders in VIX options appear to be betting on a spike, and they’re usually right. The few other times the options market was set up like this, volatility spiked.Meanwhile, traders in SPY options have been busy ... [...]

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Record Exposure As Small-Caps Drop And Commodities Suffer

2017-12-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Record exposureActive investment managers saw a record jump to record exposure and record aggressiveness toward stocks this week.There is a tendency to think this is automatically a contrary sign, but it has not been a consistent signal in the ... [...]

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Good Times As S&P Shrugs Off Financials

2017-12-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good timesLow stress and easy financial conditions have led to high confidence, low savings and good economic surprises.That combination of positive factors has never been seen to the degree we’re enjoying now. Prior “good times” led to mixed ... [...]

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Bitcoin Blow-off, Sector Performance, SLV Pessimism

2017-12-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bitcoin blow-offAnecdotal evidence of a blow-off in Bitcoin has exploded over the last couple of days. That’s hard to incorporate, so using data related to price action and public interest, we see that a sentiment model has reached blow-off ... [...]

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Closing On Lows, Discretionary Streak

2017-12-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Closing on the lows (WHAT?!)The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has closed near the day’s intraday low for the past two days, an unusual sight during this strong uptrend that has seen so many intraday dip-buyers. It hasn’t closed on the low on consecutive days ... [...]

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Silver's Inconsistent Signs

2017-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


Over the past couple of sessions, there have been some notable moves in silver, which seems like it should be a good sign for the metal going forward. There was heavy selling to end the week, then a reversal from a low on Monday. That often signals exhausted selling pressure.Unfortunately, it ... [...]

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Crude Oil's New Bear Market

2017-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


Markets are mostly quiet (again), but not so much in the energy patch. Oil is getting hit again and is now down 20% from its most recent peak, arbitrarily considered a bear market at this point.We saw in a recent report that although oil has lost 2% a week for the past few weeks, it hasn't been ... [...]

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King Dollar

2016-12-02 | Jason Goepfert


The Optimism Index for the U.S. dollar has been at an extreme since mid-November and the it has started to struggle as it often does in December.The strong trend hasn't gone unnoticed by mainstream media. The latest cover the The Economist shows a triumphant Schwarzenegger-esque buck with the ... [...]

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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

2016-11-10 | Jason Goepfert


As investors sort through the large moves made across markets and sectors following the election, the knee-jerk reaction among traders was that there would be clear winners and losers based on a change in administration, and some of the moves were extreme.Knee-jerk reactions are often misleading ... [...]

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Gold Has Lost Its Trend

2016-10-06 | Jason Goepfert


Barring a hefty intraday reversal, the spot price of gold is about to lose its long-term trend. For the first time since February, gold is threatening to close below its 200-day average.When this happened in the 1980s (several times) and the last time, in 2011, it led to protracted bear markets ... [...]

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Traders Rush Into Collapsing Gold Miners

2016-10-05 | Jason Goepfert


A curious thing happened in ETF land on Tuesday. One of the day's biggest losers, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) also saw one of the largest inflows of assets. Only SPY took in more money on Tuesday.How is this possible? It could be either traders making a big bet on a rebound, or ... [...]

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Seasonality And Sentiment Screen

2016-10-04 | Jason Goepfert


Near the beginning of each month, we try to run a Seasonality and Sentiment screen, which takes a look at the commodities and ETFs we track that have a tendency to rise (or fall) this month as well have a current Optimism Index reading that's near an extreme.Among ETFs, it's clear that ... [...]

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Everything Is Rallying On FOMC Decision

2016-09-21 | Jason Goepfert


After the FOMC announcement on their rate policy and outlook, pretty much everything is rallying. It's odd to see stocks, bonds, gold and commodities all enjoying relatively large gains, because they tend to react differently to economic inputs.Regardless, there have been 12 times since the ... [...]

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ETF Traders Add To Silver Even While It Falls

2016-08-24 | Jason Goepfert


A recent Bloomberg blurb on silver has triggered quite a few questions about prospects for the metal.According to the article, shares in the SLV silver ETF have jumped to a new record high even while silver has been slumping. Indeed they have.One caveat about ETF assets is that they don't ... [...]

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Quick Update On Futures Positioning

2016-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


Themes from the latest Commitments of Traders report, covering futures positions through Tuesday include “smart money” hedgers holding: Massive shorts in gold and silver, essentially unchanged from prior weeks A new record short position in sugar, matching the previous extreme set in mid-January ... [...]

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Gold, Silver Open Interest Is Exploding

2016-05-17 | Jason Goepfert


As a follow-up to yesterday's look at the exploding interest in gold, we've been asked to look at open interest in precious metals futures.Open interest is simply the number of futures contracts that have been opened (long or short) and are still outstanding. Typically, if open interest is ... [...]

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Gold Concerns Help Fuel Possible Intraday Reversal

2016-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


Traders have been watching the precious metals markets with a wary eye in recent weeks Most traders focus on gold as opposed to silver, so let's look at a few of the factors that have been worrying those betting on a further rally:1."Smart money" hedgers are holding extreme short positions ... [...]

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Quick Update On Futures Positioning

2016-05-13 | Jason Goepfert


The latest Commitments of Traders report showed basically no change from prior weeks in the major themes. "Smart money" hedgers are holding: Massive shorts in gold and silver Some short-covering in the yen but it remains near a record short position for them Decreasing enthusiasm for the grains, ... [...]

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Quick Update On Futures Positioning

2016-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


The latest Commitments of Traders report showed mostly the same themes as prior weeks. "Smart money" hedgers are holding: Massive (and growing) shorts in gold and silver Growing (but not extreme) positions against non-US dollar currencies Except for the yen, in which they are holding near-record ... [...]

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Crude Oil On Cusp Of 7th-Largest Intraday Reversal

2016-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


Late last year, we went over a handful of signs in crude oil that had only been seen at prior long-term lows. Sentiment measures were at or near historic extremes and the kind of price activity witnessed was typically seen near long-term inflection points.Going into today's session, expectations ... [...]

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Quick Update On Futures Positioning

2016-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


The latest Commitments of Traders report showed some modest changes from last week. The report includes positions as of Tuesday's close, for which we focus on "smart money" commercial hedgers.In gold, hedgers moved to their most net short since 2012. They also added to silver shorts which are ... [...]

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Crude Oil About To End Record-Breaking Streak

2016-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


With early gains to start the day, crude oil may finally end a record-breaking streak. It has been below its 200-day average for 427 trading days, by far the longest such stretch in its history.Many traders use the 200-day average to define bull and bear markets, so the chance that crude could ... [...]

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Quick Update On Futures Positioning

2016-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


The latest Commitments of Traders report showed mostly modest changes this week with no new major extremes.The major themes in recent weeks were large short positions from "smart money" hedgers in gold, silver and yen, and large long positions in cotton. That hasn't changed.In the yen, they've ... [...]

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Quick Update On Futures Positioning

2016-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


The latest Commitments of Traders data showed a couple of large changes. "Smart money" hedgers dumped a large number of contracts in coffee, hogs and soybeans. The latter is coming off one of their largest net long positions in years, however, and is not especially troubling.They remain ... [...]

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Quick Update On Futures Positioning

2016-03-18 | Jason Goepfert


There was not much change in positions for "smart money" hedgers in the latest Commitments of Traders report, covering trades through Tuesday.Most of the contracts saw a slight reversal of previous extremes, with no moves that were especially notable. In cotton, mentioned last week as well, they ... [...]

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Quick Update On Futures Positioning

2016-03-11 | Jason Goepfert


The just-released Commitments of Traders report showed mostly modest changes in most contracts, with the same general theme as the last couple of weeks. Hedgers remain heavily short precious metals, particularly silver, and long grains, particularly wheat.One change that has been gathering steam ... [...]

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Quick Look At Futures Positioning

2016-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


The latest data from the CFTC is out and shows some slight movement in futures positions.Hedgers relaxed their shorts against silver by a bit, but continue to hold nearly a five-year extreme against the metal. They increased their bets against gold, nearly to the most extreme in three years.At ... [...]

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Quick Look At Futures Positioning

2016-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


The latest Commitments of Traders data showed some interesting changes this week, especially in equities.Nonreportable (small) traders in S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA futures apparently didn't believe in the rally, as they pushed their net short position to over $8 billion, an all-time record ... [...]

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Quick Look At Futures Positioning

2016-02-19 | Jason Goepfert


Following is a quick snapshot of the latest futures positioning data from the CFTC. These are positions for the large commercial hedgers that we show in the interactive versions of the charts on the site.The most notable change was in silver, where hedgers are now holding their most aggressive ... [...]

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Quick COT Update

2016-02-12 | Jason Goepfert


The latest data on futures contract positioning has been released by the CFTC, showing some fairly large changes, especially in the metals.The charts below show the past three years of positions for the major contracts. These are money manager and/or speculator positions, which is opposite from ... [...]

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US Dollar Suffers Major Loss

2016-02-03 | Jason Goepfert


The US dollar is getting hammered so far today, with the Dollar Index dropping nearly -2%, among the largest one-day declines since 1975.It is on track for more than a -2.5% loss over the past three sessions, which is of course also one of its largest losses in that time span. What's notable ... [...]

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Crude Sell-Off

2016-01-12 | Jason Goepfert


We've touched on the so-bad-it-might-be-good sell-off in crude oil a few times over the past year. Usually it was good for a short-term reprieve at best.Overall, that market has not responded, which is a good sign to stay away. Markets that don't do what they should are in great danger of doing ... [...]

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Commodity ETF Flow

2015-12-28 | Jason Goepfert


A Bloomberg article today noted an outflow from commodity ETFs this year, an exception to past years.It's an illuminating item, however it does get one thing wrong, which is something we will commonly see during year-end reviews.It noted that energy ETFs saw an inflow of cash as investors tried ... [...]

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Crude Oil Term Structure Nears Record Extreme

2015-12-21 | Jason Goepfert


With another drop in crude oil today, we've been asked to provide an update on the term structure for crude oil.This is something we've discussed in years past, as a measure of how futures traders are pricing the various contracts in crude.The ratio we've always used is the contract that expires ... [...]

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Anglo Suspends Dividend, Which Marked Its Previous Bottom

2015-12-09 | Jason Goepfert


The last thing a company wants to do is cut its dividend.Steady and rising dividends are a sign of a healthy, responsible company (at least that's what we're usually led to believe). Lowering that payout to shareholders or - GASP! - suspending it altogether is a sign of desperation.And that's ... [...]

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Energy Company Default Risk Is Soaring

2015-12-08 | Jason Goepfert


The Wall Street Journal published an article today about the free-falling price of bonds for many energy-related companies. Stock and bond prices have been falling by 5%-15% a day in some of these issues.As a result, the probability of default is rising.But the thing about that is that it is ... [...]

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Oil Taking A(nother) Beating

2015-12-07 | Jason Goepfert


The U.S. Oil Fund (USO) has been a poor product almost from the get-go, as it struggles to track the price of crude oil while battling the long-term effects of contango.With oil taking another beating today, USO is getting hit especially hard, off nearly 6% so far on Monday.That has pushed the ... [...]

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Money Managers Short More Oil, Gold, Buy Sugar

2015-12-04 | Jason Goepfert


The just-released Commitments of Traders report showed more of the same trend as in past weeks.Money managers have gone to an even larger all-time extreme against gold (positions are as of Tuesday's close).Same for crude oil. Both commodities have a history of responding in a contrary way to ... [...]

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Money Managers Short The Most Gold In A Decade

2015-11-30 | Jason Goepfert


The CFTC just released the latest Commitments of Traders report. Among the more interesting developments, it shows that money managers are now net short nearly 15,000 contracts of gold.The only other time since at least 2006 that they were short was in late July, right before gold popped by +5%. ... [...]

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Put Trading On Gold Miners Nears Record

2015-11-25 | Jason Goepfert


The big spill in gold miners the other day brought out the put traders.Put option volume in GDX has spiked to one of the highest levels in at least six years. The median put/call ratio in the fund over the past 10 days has exceeded 3-to-1 (three put options traded for every one call option). ... [...]

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