Posts tagged as Cash

A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash

2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert

High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ... [...]

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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash

2019-07-25 | Jason Goepfert

NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico

2019-07-24 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Leaking AssetsThe major indexes (excepting the Russell 2000) have risen toward fresh highs over the past week, but ETF traders don't seem to care. Assets in SPY, DIA, and QQQ have all declined over the past 5 sessions.Shares outstanding in all 3 ... [...]

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IPO Fervor Returns

2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert

Overseas out, bonds inNear the end of April, investors fled non-U.S. equity funds, with the 2nd-largest outflow in five years. That has been a good contrary indicator in the past.At the same time, they moved more into bonds, with other measures confirming the increasingly consensus sentiment ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - More Bond Bulls, Hefty Flows

2019-05-02 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a weak day.More Bond BullsWe saw on Tuesday that U.S. consumers showed a big jump in expectations that bond yields would drop (prices rise), and that's been a bad bet lately. More evidence comes from a survey we've looked at a few times over the years, ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - No Cash, Bullish On Bonds, Financials' Breadth

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this month-end, yet-another-buy-on-weakness day.No CashThe latest data from the Investment Company Institute shows that mutual fund managers reduced their cash positions again in March. They're now holding 2.9% of client assets in liquid instruments, ... [...]

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Stocks Have A Participation Problem

2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert

Debt declinesWhen stocks rally, investors tend to borrow more against their shares. There is a high positive correlation between changes in stock indexes and changes in margin debt.That’s breaking down this year, though. As stocks have rallied, investors have held back on their debt. It’s not as ... [...]

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Who's Afraid Of An IPO Surge?

2019-03-30 | Jason Goepfert

New issuesThe IPO market is thawing, and we could be on track for a record-breaking year. The only other years that investors absorbed this much in new issues, stocks stumbled the next year. But when accounting for inflation and the growing market value of all equities, it’s not such a worry.If ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far ahead of the FOMC craziness.Tweeps Loving ChinaSocial sentiment among Twitter users has become very optimistic over the past month. The 20-day average of Social Sentiment on FXI has dropped below 1, meaning that on an average day, there have been more ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-19 | Jason Goepfert

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.CautiousAccording to the latest monthly BofA fund manager survey, big money managers are still not showing any optimism toward equities as a general asset class, with only a 3% overweight. It has been declining consistently for the past 2 years and ... [...]

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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions

2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert

Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ... [...]

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Record Outflow As Mom-And-Pop Sit On The Sidelines

2019-02-04 | Jason Goepfert

Record flowComprehensive data on mutual fund flows confirm that the massive loss in December for equity funds was the largest on record, dating back 35 years. As a percentage of assets, it was exceeded only by July 2002 and October 2008 in recent history.Money market funds saw huge inflows, but ... [...]

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Jobless Claims Find Bottom; Margin Debt Declines

2018-11-30 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bottom in jobless claimsAfter hitting a multi-year low, jobless claims have hit a 6-month high and are above a 52-week average.That tends to lead to a rise in the unemployment rate, an input to many recession models. But a nascent uptrend in ... [...]

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V-Shaped Bounces And Explosion In Hedging

2018-10-16 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.V-shaped probabilityFollowing declines like the past month, v-shaped bounces were common. Almost 40% of the precedents formed a bottom within a couple of sessions. While some short-term volatility was normal, all but a few of the precedents ended ... [...]

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Cash Is Trash As S&P Ends 50-Year Streak

2018-10-05 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Cash is still trashMutual fund managers have refused to raise cash balances, despite rising yields on those balances. The latest monthly data shows that they’re holding only 3% of assets in cash, among the lowest in history.Adjusting for rising ... [...]

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A Record Beat Rate For Earnings As Investors Flee World ETFs

2018-07-23 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A record beat rateS&P 500 companies have beat earnings expectations to a record degree. As we near the two-week mark of earnings season, about 90% of companies reported better-than-anticipated earnings. That’s more than 15% above the average beat ... [...]

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Copper Drops To 200-Day Low As Value Lags And Gold Sinks

2018-07-02 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Copper slides to 200-day lowCopper closed at its lowest level since last July, a worry for believers in “Dr. Copper.”Its record for stocks is mixed, but for copper itself, it wasn’t a good sign.No valueOverseas investors have favored Momentum over ... [...]

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Gold Suffers Death Cross As Financials Stumble

2018-06-27 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not a Golden CrossGold’s 50-day average finally crossed below its 200-day for the first time in a year, ending one of its longest-ever streaks with a more positive medium- than long-term trend.The metal tended to trend lower in the months after ... [...]

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ETF Investors Stay Home As Mom & Pop Go Back To Stocks

2018-06-08 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors stay homeFlows into domestic ETFs have swamped that of overseas funds over the past 4 weeks.The other times it happened to this degree, world stocks started to outperform the S&P.Mom & pop ignore safetyIndividual investors are showing ... [...]

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Fund Flows Into Ultra-Safe Bonds As Companies Enjoy Record Trust

2018-06-06 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors are loving bond fundsBond funds have dominated the ETF inflow list lately, especially short-term government Treasury funds. The Technology sector is the only one that has seen large, and consistent inflows among sectors.Broad ... [...]

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Mutual Fund Cash Sinks Along With Risk Appetite

2018-06-01 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As rates rise, fund managers shrugMutual fund managers continue to hold a near-record low level of cash relative to other assets. A surge in short-term interest rates has not tempted them to hold more of a cash cushion. They are now holding 2.5% ... [...]

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Smart Money Index Influenced By ETFs as Investor Net Worth Hits New Low

2018-05-24 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The last hour conundrumSomebody keeps selling into the close, and it’s commonly assumed that it’s large “smart money” traders. That concept worked in years past, but the proliferation of ETFs has thrown a wrench into it.Using SPY volume, it’s clear ... [...]

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Historic Volatility As Investors Flee Funds

2018-04-05 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A historic couple of weeksStocks have swung more than 1% almost every day for the past two weeks. Even during bear markets, investors have rarely suffered through such dramatic clusters of daily swings.Forward returns after such high volatility ... [...]

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Low Volume Rally As Net Cash Shrinks

2018-02-28 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Low-volume reboundStocks have rebounded over the past two weeks on volume that is significantly below volume prior to the bottom.That is an overplayed concern hyped up by textbook-slave technicians without much practical basis. Future returns and ... [...]

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Fund Managers Ignore Cash As Streaks End

2018-01-31 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fund managers still hate cashMutual fund managers are holding a near-record low amount of cash according to the latest figures. That was easier to justify when interest rates were nearly zero but gets harder as rates rise.Their cash deficit is now ... [...]

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Persistent Trend As Stocks Become Stretched

2018-01-12 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The most persistent trendThe persistence of the S&P’s uptrend over the past year is among the highest in its history. Same goes for the past 3, 5, and 10 years.When we look at the 5 comparable trends, using the 200-day average as a guide was ... [...]

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Retail Investor Confusion As The Vol Trade And Bitcoin Roll

2017-05-22 | Jason Goepfert

Stocks are recording another up day, on lower volume and with a smaller range. Maybe all of the quant folks have made patterns like this useless - they have certainly seemed to lose some effectiveness in recent years - but this is a classic rebound pattern from a large loss. Historically, there ... [...]

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Surge In Index ETF Assets

2016-12-15 | Jason Goepfert

In yesterday's report, we noted that index ETFs had seen a sudden surge. Both SPY and DIA took in the most money of the year. On Wednesday, QQQ joined that list with a $1.7 billion inflow.The usual caveat is that fund flows are not necessarily a reflection of buying interest. Some of the shares ... [...]

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Largest Deals In History

2016-10-24 | Jason Goepfert

With the weekend announcement of a proposed AT&T / Time Warner marriage, the table of largest mergers & acquisition announcements has been re-arranged. The deal would rank as the 5th-largest in the past 20 years.There has been a spate of these large announcements in the past two years.Cheap ... [...]

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A 19-Year Low In Stock Holdings?

2016-04-21 | Jason Goepfert

Americans are holding the fewest stocks in 19 years. So says a new Reuters poll, getting quite a bit of attention today.But... It's a survey. People often do one thing and say another. Many don't even know that they own stocks. It might be misleading. The survey included about 1,000 respondents ... [...]

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