Posts tagged as Cash

Stocks are more likely to soar when margin debt does this

Margin debt is holding above its 12-month moving average, which has been a good sign for stocks.

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Investors' Cash Balances Struggling to Swallow Smart Money Supply

While investors continue to hold a large cash reserve, corporations are issuing near records amount of stock.

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Corporations Are Feeding the Ducks but Investors Still Have the Cash

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Leverage Drops While Stocks Soar to Record Highs

Despite stocks closing the month at a record high, investors pulled back on margin debt, and their cash levels plunged.

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Leverage Drops as Stocks Surge

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Investors Are Shoveling Money Into Stocks at a Record Pace

Through June, equity mutual funds and ETFs are showing the largest inflow in 20 years.

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A Record Breaking Half for Fund Flows

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There Has Never Been a Better Time to Lose Money

Due to seemingly unlimited investor appetite, there has been a surge in secondary share issuance by nonprofitable companies.

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A Record Glut of Shares from Money Losers

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This Indicator Predicts Stocks Will Lose 36% Through 2023

Household allocations to stocks and mutual funds have climbed to 36.5% of all financial assets, a record high.

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Households Have Never Been More Exposed

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Investors buy (on margin) as insiders sell

The 1-year growth in margin debt hit a 20-year high in March as smart money corporate insiders see a sudden spike in selling.

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Investment bankers are looking at this with envy

There has been a record surge in IPO issuance over the past 3 months.

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IPO mania continues, with a caveat

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Why margin debt is about to trigger a warning sign

When March's numbers get reported, we will likely see a spike in margin debt that surpasses most other historical extremes.

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Large leap in leverage

Investors have become more comfortable with leverage, and margin debt is rising quickly.

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Investors getting more and more comfortable with leverage

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When the ducks are quacking

Bankers are capitalizing on a prime opportunity, facilitating a record amount of share issuance via IPOs and secondary offerings.

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Investors push leverage to record highs

Margin debt, money borrowed with stock holdings as collateral, rose to a record high in November, but remain low relative to market capitalization.

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Margin debt, and other leverage, hits record high

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Investors have never been so hungry to lose money

Over the past year, there have been many more IPOs of companies that haven't been able to turn a profit over the past 12 months.

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Young and unprofitable - the best combination for going public

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Despite losses, investors borrow more against stocks

In September, investors borrowed more against their stock holdings, as margin debt rose despite losses in equities.

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Despite losses, investors borrow more against stocks

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Thirst for IPOs remains unquenched

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10 straight weeks of money market leakage

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The IPO market is popping

With stocks rising, the IPO market is heating up. We're on track to potentially exceed the prior record for new share proceeds.

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IPO market is nearing records

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Companies haven't been this conservative in 20 years

To preserve cash, companies have pulled back on buying back their own stock, while issuing more shares via IPOs and secondary offerings.

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Companies pull back on buybacks while issuing more shares

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Investors keep shifting money from stocks to bonds

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Investors continue to shy away from debt

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Responding to gold's run, investors flood in

So far in 2020, investors have pushed more than $25 billion into precious metals ETFs, a record high even though we're only halfway through the year.

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All equity funds are showing negative flows

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Investors flood into precious metals, flee emerging markets

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Institutions are coming back from the "sidelines"

Institutional investors are finally starting to pull cash from money market funds, after a historic rise in those assets.

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Institutions are coming off the "sidelines"

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Household equity holdings plunge, but remain too high

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A record month for hoarding cash

In March, investors shoved nearly $700 billion into the safety of money market funds, by far a record dating back to the 1980s.

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Investors across the board are hoarding cash

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Market crash causes investors' leverage to plunge

The crash in March triggered a plunge in margin debt, which is now down nearly 30% from the peak in 2018.

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Leverage declines as margin debt plunges again

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Fund managers scramble for cash as they sell stocks

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Bull Stampede

The Rydex family of mutual funds is showing that investors are almost the most bullish on record.Bull stampede at RydexIn the Rydex family of mutual funds, traders have positioned themselves in perhaps the most aggressive way ever.It’s not hip to be a mutual fund manager anymore – all the cool ...

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Rydex Fund Assets Show Extreme Optimism

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A Cluster Of Warnings

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Cluster funkIf we focus on one particular data point too much, then we risk getting blindsided by a structural market change or simply a failed signal. That’s ...

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Pension Tension

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Public pension tensionPublic pension funds have been adding to their stock allocation, raising it significantly over the past year. They’ve also dropped their ...

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Why Investors' Money Market Rush Isn't Necessarily A Buy Signal

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Money market mysteryAssets in money market funds continue to ramp higher. Knee-jerk contrarians will take that as a buy signal, but it’s not that easy. Assets ...

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Investors' cash cushion is near the lowest in 30 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.No cash cushionIn September, individual investors reduced their cash position to one of the lowest levels in 30 years. They’re not alone. Other groups of ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

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Why this is different than other bull market peaks

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bear market momentumThe big drop in momentum stocks earlier this month triggered the theory that the long bull market in stocks was likely over, since ...

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A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash

High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ...

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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash

NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ...

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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico

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IPO Fervor Returns

Overseas out, bonds inNear the end of April, investors fled non-U.S. equity funds, with the 2nd-largest outflow in five years. That has been a good contrary indicator in the past.At the same time, they moved more into bonds, with other measures confirming the increasingly consensus sentiment ...

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Thursday Midday Color - More Bond Bulls, Hefty Flows

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Tuesday Midday Color - No Cash, Bullish On Bonds, Financials' Breadth

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Stocks Have A Participation Problem

Debt declinesWhen stocks rally, investors tend to borrow more against their shares. There is a high positive correlation between changes in stock indexes and changes in margin debt.That’s breaking down this year, though. As stocks have rallied, investors have held back on their debt. It’s not as ...

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Who's Afraid Of An IPO Surge?

New issuesThe IPO market is thawing, and we could be on track for a record-breaking year. The only other years that investors absorbed this much in new issues, stocks stumbled the next year. But when accounting for inflation and the growing market value of all equities, it’s not such a worry.If ...

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions

Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ...

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Record Outflow As Mom-And-Pop Sit On The Sidelines

Record flowComprehensive data on mutual fund flows confirm that the massive loss in December for equity funds was the largest on record, dating back 35 years. As a percentage of assets, it was exceeded only by July 2002 and October 2008 in recent history.Money market funds saw huge inflows, but ...

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Jobless Claims Find Bottom; Margin Debt Declines

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bottom in jobless claimsAfter hitting a multi-year low, jobless claims have hit a 6-month high and are above a 52-week average.That tends to lead to a rise in the unemployment rate, an input to many recession models. But a nascent uptrend in ...

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V-Shaped Bounces And Explosion In Hedging

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.V-shaped probabilityFollowing declines like the past month, v-shaped bounces were common. Almost 40% of the precedents formed a bottom within a couple of sessions. While some short-term volatility was normal, all but a few of the precedents ended ...

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Cash Is Trash As S&P Ends 50-Year Streak

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Cash is still trashMutual fund managers have refused to raise cash balances, despite rising yields on those balances. The latest monthly data shows that they’re holding only 3% of assets in cash, among the lowest in history.Adjusting for rising ...

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A Record Beat Rate For Earnings As Investors Flee World ETFs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A record beat rateS&P 500 companies have beat earnings expectations to a record degree. As we near the two-week mark of earnings season, about 90% of companies reported better-than-anticipated earnings. That’s more than 15% above the average beat ...

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Copper Drops To 200-Day Low As Value Lags And Gold Sinks

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Copper slides to 200-day lowCopper closed at its lowest level since last July, a worry for believers in “Dr. Copper.”Its record for stocks is mixed, but for copper itself, it wasn’t a good sign.No valueOverseas investors have favored Momentum over ...

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Gold Suffers Death Cross As Financials Stumble

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not a Golden CrossGold’s 50-day average finally crossed below its 200-day for the first time in a year, ending one of its longest-ever streaks with a more positive medium- than long-term trend.The metal tended to trend lower in the months after ...

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ETF Investors Stay Home As Mom & Pop Go Back To Stocks

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors stay homeFlows into domestic ETFs have swamped that of overseas funds over the past 4 weeks.The other times it happened to this degree, world stocks started to outperform the S&P.Mom & pop ignore safetyIndividual investors are showing ...

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Fund Flows Into Ultra-Safe Bonds As Companies Enjoy Record Trust

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors are loving bond fundsBond funds have dominated the ETF inflow list lately, especially short-term government Treasury funds. The Technology sector is the only one that has seen large, and consistent inflows among sectors.Broad ...

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Mutual Fund Cash Sinks Along With Risk Appetite

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As rates rise, fund managers shrugMutual fund managers continue to hold a near-record low level of cash relative to other assets. A surge in short-term interest rates has not tempted them to hold more of a cash cushion. They are now holding 2.5% ...

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Smart Money Index Influenced By ETFs as Investor Net Worth Hits New Low

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The last hour conundrumSomebody keeps selling into the close, and it’s commonly assumed that it’s large “smart money” traders. That concept worked in years past, but the proliferation of ETFs has thrown a wrench into it.Using SPY volume, it’s clear ...

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Historic Volatility As Investors Flee Funds

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A historic couple of weeksStocks have swung more than 1% almost every day for the past two weeks. Even during bear markets, investors have rarely suffered through such dramatic clusters of daily swings.Forward returns after such high volatility ...

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Low Volume Rally As Net Cash Shrinks

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Low-volume reboundStocks have rebounded over the past two weeks on volume that is significantly below volume prior to the bottom.That is an overplayed concern hyped up by textbook-slave technicians without much practical basis. Future returns and ...

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Fund Managers Ignore Cash As Streaks End

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fund managers still hate cashMutual fund managers are holding a near-record low amount of cash according to the latest figures. That was easier to justify when interest rates were nearly zero but gets harder as rates rise.Their cash deficit is now ...

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Persistent Trend As Stocks Become Stretched

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The most persistent trendThe persistence of the S&P’s uptrend over the past year is among the highest in its history. Same goes for the past 3, 5, and 10 years.When we look at the 5 comparable trends, using the 200-day average as a guide was ...

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Retail Investor Confusion As The Vol Trade And Bitcoin Roll

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Surge In Index ETF Assets

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Largest Deals In History

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A 19-Year Low In Stock Holdings?

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