Large leap in leverage
2021-01-28 | Jason Goepfert
Investors have become more comfortable with leverage, and margin debt is rising quickly.
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Investors getting more and more comfortable with leverage
2021-01-27 | Jason Goepfert
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When the ducks are quacking
2021-01-26 | Jason Goepfert
Bankers are capitalizing on a prime opportunity, facilitating a record amount of share issuance via IPOs and secondary offerings.
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Investors push leverage to record highs
2020-12-29 | Jason Goepfert
Margin debt, money borrowed with stock holdings as collateral, rose to a record high in November, but remain low relative to market capitalization.
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Margin debt, and other leverage, hits record high
2020-12-28 | Jason Goepfert
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Investors have never been so hungry to lose money
2020-12-14 | Jason Goepfert
Over the past year, there have been many more IPOs of companies that haven't been able to turn a profit over the past 12 months.
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Young and unprofitable - the best combination for going public
2020-12-11 | Jason Goepfert
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Despite losses, investors borrow more against stocks
2020-10-28 | Jason Goepfert
In September, investors borrowed more against their stock holdings, as margin debt rose despite losses in equities.
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Despite losses, investors borrow more against stocks
2020-10-27 | Jason Goepfert
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Thirst for IPOs remains unquenched
2020-09-18 | Jason Goepfert
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10 straight weeks of money market leakage
2020-08-20 | Jason Goepfert
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The IPO market is popping
2020-08-14 | Jason Goepfert
With stocks rising, the IPO market is heating up. We're on track to potentially exceed the prior record for new share proceeds.
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IPO market is nearing records
2020-08-13 | Jason Goepfert
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Companies haven't been this conservative in 20 years
2020-08-05 | Jason Goepfert
To preserve cash, companies have pulled back on buying back their own stock, while issuing more shares via IPOs and secondary offerings.
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Companies pull back on buybacks while issuing more shares
2020-08-04 | Jason Goepfert
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Investors keep shifting money from stocks to bonds
2020-07-30 | Jason Goepfert
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Investors continue to shy away from debt
2020-07-29 | Jason Goepfert
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Responding to gold's run, investors flood in
2020-07-13 | Jason Goepfert
So far in 2020, investors have pushed more than $25 billion into precious metals ETFs, a record high even though we're only halfway through the year.
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All equity funds are showing negative flows
2020-07-10 | Jason Goepfert
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Investors flood into precious metals, flee emerging markets
2020-07-10 | Jason Goepfert
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Institutions are coming back from the "sidelines"
2020-06-18 | Jason Goepfert
Institutional investors are finally starting to pull cash from money market funds, after a historic rise in those assets.
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Institutions are coming off the "sidelines"
2020-06-17 | Jason Goepfert
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Household equity holdings plunge, but remain too high
2020-06-12 | Jason Goepfert
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A record month for hoarding cash
2020-05-04 | Jason Goepfert
In March, investors shoved nearly $700 billion into the safety of money market funds, by far a record dating back to the 1980s.
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Investors across the board are hoarding cash
2020-05-01 | Jason Goepfert
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Market crash causes investors' leverage to plunge
2020-04-29 | Jason Goepfert
The crash in March triggered a plunge in margin debt, which is now down nearly 30% from the peak in 2018.
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Leverage declines as margin debt plunges again
2020-04-28 | Jason Goepfert
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Fund managers scramble for cash as they sell stocks
2020-04-15 | Jason Goepfert
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Bull Stampede
2019-12-19 | Jason Goepfert
The Rydex family of mutual funds is showing that investors are almost the most bullish on record.Bull stampede at RydexIn the Rydex family of mutual funds, traders have positioned themselves in perhaps the most aggressive way ever.It’s not hip to be a mutual fund manager anymore – all the cool ...
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Rydex Fund Assets Show Extreme Optimism
2019-12-18 | Jason Goepfert
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A Cluster Of Warnings
2019-11-22 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Cluster funkIf we focus on one particular data point too much, then we risk getting blindsided by a structural market change or simply a failed signal. That’s ...
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Pension Tension
2019-11-08 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Public pension tensionPublic pension funds have been adding to their stock allocation, raising it significantly over the past year. They’ve also dropped their ...
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Why Investors' Money Market Rush Isn't Necessarily A Buy Signal
2019-11-07 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Money market mysteryAssets in money market funds continue to ramp higher. Knee-jerk contrarians will take that as a buy signal, but it’s not that easy. Assets ...
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Investors' cash cushion is near the lowest in 30 years
2019-10-03 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.No cash cushionIn September, individual investors reduced their cash position to one of the lowest levels in 30 years. They’re not alone. Other groups of ...
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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies
2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert
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Why this is different than other bull market peaks
2019-09-27 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bear market momentumThe big drop in momentum stocks earlier this month triggered the theory that the long bull market in stocks was likely over, since ...
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A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash
2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert
High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ...
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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash
2019-07-25 | Jason Goepfert
NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ...
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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico
2019-07-24 | Jason Goepfert
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IPO Fervor Returns
2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert
Overseas out, bonds inNear the end of April, investors fled non-U.S. equity funds, with the 2nd-largest outflow in five years. That has been a good contrary indicator in the past.At the same time, they moved more into bonds, with other measures confirming the increasingly consensus sentiment ...
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Thursday Midday Color - More Bond Bulls, Hefty Flows
2019-05-02 | Jason Goepfert
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Tuesday Midday Color - No Cash, Bullish On Bonds, Financials' Breadth
2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert
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Stocks Have A Participation Problem
2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert
Debt declinesWhen stocks rally, investors tend to borrow more against their shares. There is a high positive correlation between changes in stock indexes and changes in margin debt.That’s breaking down this year, though. As stocks have rallied, investors have held back on their debt. It’s not as ...
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Who's Afraid Of An IPO Surge?
2019-03-30 | Jason Goepfert
New issuesThe IPO market is thawing, and we could be on track for a record-breaking year. The only other years that investors absorbed this much in new issues, stocks stumbled the next year. But when accounting for inflation and the growing market value of all equities, it’s not such a worry.If ...
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Wednesday Midday Color
2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert
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Tuesday Midday Color
2019-03-19 | Jason Goepfert
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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions
2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert
Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ...
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Record Outflow As Mom-And-Pop Sit On The Sidelines
2019-02-04 | Jason Goepfert
Record flowComprehensive data on mutual fund flows confirm that the massive loss in December for equity funds was the largest on record, dating back 35 years. As a percentage of assets, it was exceeded only by July 2002 and October 2008 in recent history.Money market funds saw huge inflows, but ...
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Jobless Claims Find Bottom; Margin Debt Declines
2018-11-30 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bottom in jobless claimsAfter hitting a multi-year low, jobless claims have hit a 6-month high and are above a 52-week average.That tends to lead to a rise in the unemployment rate, an input to many recession models. But a nascent uptrend in ...
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V-Shaped Bounces And Explosion In Hedging
2018-10-16 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.V-shaped probabilityFollowing declines like the past month, v-shaped bounces were common. Almost 40% of the precedents formed a bottom within a couple of sessions. While some short-term volatility was normal, all but a few of the precedents ended ...
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Cash Is Trash As S&P Ends 50-Year Streak
2018-10-05 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Cash is still trashMutual fund managers have refused to raise cash balances, despite rising yields on those balances. The latest monthly data shows that they’re holding only 3% of assets in cash, among the lowest in history.Adjusting for rising ...
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A Record Beat Rate For Earnings As Investors Flee World ETFs
2018-07-23 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A record beat rateS&P 500 companies have beat earnings expectations to a record degree. As we near the two-week mark of earnings season, about 90% of companies reported better-than-anticipated earnings. That’s more than 15% above the average beat ...
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Copper Drops To 200-Day Low As Value Lags And Gold Sinks
2018-07-02 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Copper slides to 200-day lowCopper closed at its lowest level since last July, a worry for believers in “Dr. Copper.”Its record for stocks is mixed, but for copper itself, it wasn’t a good sign.No valueOverseas investors have favored Momentum over ...
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Gold Suffers Death Cross As Financials Stumble
2018-06-27 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not a Golden CrossGold’s 50-day average finally crossed below its 200-day for the first time in a year, ending one of its longest-ever streaks with a more positive medium- than long-term trend.The metal tended to trend lower in the months after ...
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ETF Investors Stay Home As Mom & Pop Go Back To Stocks
2018-06-08 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors stay homeFlows into domestic ETFs have swamped that of overseas funds over the past 4 weeks.The other times it happened to this degree, world stocks started to outperform the S&P.Mom & pop ignore safetyIndividual investors are showing ...
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Fund Flows Into Ultra-Safe Bonds As Companies Enjoy Record Trust
2018-06-06 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors are loving bond fundsBond funds have dominated the ETF inflow list lately, especially short-term government Treasury funds. The Technology sector is the only one that has seen large, and consistent inflows among sectors.Broad ...
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Mutual Fund Cash Sinks Along With Risk Appetite
2018-06-01 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As rates rise, fund managers shrugMutual fund managers continue to hold a near-record low level of cash relative to other assets. A surge in short-term interest rates has not tempted them to hold more of a cash cushion. They are now holding 2.5% ...
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Smart Money Index Influenced By ETFs as Investor Net Worth Hits New Low
2018-05-24 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The last hour conundrumSomebody keeps selling into the close, and it’s commonly assumed that it’s large “smart money” traders. That concept worked in years past, but the proliferation of ETFs has thrown a wrench into it.Using SPY volume, it’s clear ...
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Historic Volatility As Investors Flee Funds
2018-04-05 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A historic couple of weeksStocks have swung more than 1% almost every day for the past two weeks. Even during bear markets, investors have rarely suffered through such dramatic clusters of daily swings.Forward returns after such high volatility ...
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Low Volume Rally As Net Cash Shrinks
2018-02-28 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Low-volume reboundStocks have rebounded over the past two weeks on volume that is significantly below volume prior to the bottom.That is an overplayed concern hyped up by textbook-slave technicians without much practical basis. Future returns and ...
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Fund Managers Ignore Cash As Streaks End
2018-01-31 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fund managers still hate cashMutual fund managers are holding a near-record low amount of cash according to the latest figures. That was easier to justify when interest rates were nearly zero but gets harder as rates rise.Their cash deficit is now ...
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Persistent Trend As Stocks Become Stretched
2018-01-12 | Jason Goepfert
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The most persistent trendThe persistence of the S&P’s uptrend over the past year is among the highest in its history. Same goes for the past 3, 5, and 10 years.When we look at the 5 comparable trends, using the 200-day average as a guide was ...
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Retail Investor Confusion As The Vol Trade And Bitcoin Roll
2017-05-22 | Jason Goepfert
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Surge In Index ETF Assets
2016-12-15 | Jason Goepfert
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Largest Deals In History
2016-10-24 | Jason Goepfert
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A 19-Year Low In Stock Holdings?
2016-04-21 | Jason Goepfert
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