Posts tagged as Breadth


Why Investors' Money Market Rush Isn't Necessarily A Buy Signal

2019-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Money market mysteryAssets in money market funds continue to ramp higher. Knee-jerk contrarians will take that as a buy signal, but it’s not that easy. Assets ...

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Speculative Options Trading Picks Up

2019-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Options optimismThanks to a lot of volume in index options, the CBOE’s total put/call ratio dropped to a very low level. Over the past two weeks, it has moved ...

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What I'm looking at - sentiment froth?, new highs expansion, Hong Kong, New Zealand

2019-11-06 | Troy Bombardia


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One Of These Things Is Not Like The Others

2019-11-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.One of these things is not like the othersOut of the “big four” equity indexes, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are all sitting at new all-time highs. The small-cap ...

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What I'm looking at - breakouts, Put/Call, NASDAQ breadth, new highs

2019-11-05 | Troy Bombardia


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2 Participation Problems

2019-11-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Dearth of uptrendsMost of what we've looked at in recent months has suggested higher prices for stocks. There are maybe 1-3 times per year where pretty much ...

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What I'm looking at - Chemical Activity Barometer, Risk Appetite, Sensex, NASDAQ breadth

2019-11-01 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - ex-U.S. stocks, NYSE Up Issues, Economic Surprise, more overseas breadth

2019-10-30 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - stocks in a correction, KBW Bank Index, sentiment indicators, DAX breadth, high yield

2019-10-29 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - bear market, profit warnings, VIX Put/Call, homebuilders, manufacturers' new orders

2019-10-25 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - correlations, Fidelity Funds Breadth, KBW Bank Index, SPY Liquidity Premium, Value

2019-10-23 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - TLT Optix, Leading vs. Coincident, Russell range, DAX breadth, REITs, Smart Money Index

2019-10-22 | Troy Bombardia


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The Bond Market's "Sorry, Not Sorry" Moment

2019-10-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond boondoggleBond traders are often considered the smart money, or at least smarter than equity investors. It might be an issue now because high-yield bonds ...

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Thursday Color - Bond Jitters, Energy Stock Losses, AAII Bulls Jump, DAX Breakout; Dollar's 100-Day

2019-10-17 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - Chinese profits, Nikkei breadth, Germany breakout, VIX Put/Call, fund flows

2019-10-17 | Troy Bombardia


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Tuesday Color - VIX below 14, card rates, transport services, slow growth, utility momentum

2019-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism

2019-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far as stocks try to hold the latest trade optimism.Momo ReturnsTroy made a great point about the return of momentum stocks. Their plunge a few weeks ago freaked everyone out (without much historical support) but their recovery has got much less attention. ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - momentum's resurgence, new highs-lows, Index Put/Call, job openings, soft data

2019-10-10 | Troy Bombardia


With stocks still swinging wildly on the latest trade war news, here's what I'm looking at.Momentum's resurgenceMomentum crashed in September, prompting some market watchers to predict that the 10 year bull market in equities was over. Jason looked at momentum from several ways over the past 1.5 ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Small-cap outflows, financial & energy breadth, natty drop, energy options

2019-10-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Flow WoesAfter a couple of weeks of almost uninterrupted inflows to small-caps leading up to the early September peak, ETF traders have turned tail and triggered almost nothing but outflows. Seems like it could happen today, too, with them lagging ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Fear/Greed, Down Volume, Arms Index, directionless S&P, HiLo Logic Index

2019-10-09 | Troy Bombardia


Stocks continue to gyrate on on U.S.-China news. Here's what I'm looking at:CNN Fear/GreedWith stocks falling right now, our CNN Fear/Greed Proxy has fallen to 30:While it's tempting to think of this immediately as a bullish sign for stocks, it isn't. When Fear/Greed first hits 30, the stock ... [...]

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Late Cycle Behavior Triggers Crash In Insider Confidence

2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Late cycle behaviorInvestors have become concerned that we’re late in the business cycle and nearing recession. News articles catering to the fears are ... [...]

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Monday Color - Breadth whipsaws, small traders, surprise spread, bond sentiment

2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks try to recover from some overnight panic.WhippedOne of the ways in which the volatility we've seen over the past week is similar to August is the reaction to economic data. The probability of a rate cut spiked, just like it did when markets suffered a ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - CEO confidence, Put/Call spike, new highs %, sentiment divergence, FTSE 100

2019-10-04 | Troy Bombardia


With stocks bouncing around near an all-time high, here's what I'm looking at:CEO ConfidenceThe Conference Board's CEO Confidence has fallen to 34, which is the lowest reading in a decade. According to the Conference Board, CEO's are citing the ongoing trade war and slowing global growth as the ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Depressed investors, negative gamma, Anti-Zweig thrust, signs of anxiety

2019-10-03 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders take in the latest batch of not-so-great economic data.DepressedIn what has become something of a pattern, individual investors are once again saying they have little optimism about rising prices. Even though they still hold a high proportion of their ... [...]

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S&P stocks are starting to roll over, but...

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Manufactured pessimismA popular economic data series has tumbled into recession territory. The ISM Manufacturing survey has cratered over the past year and ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets continue to suffer similar selling pressure to yesterday.Bad DaysThe S&P 500 is on track for another bad day, its first potential back-to-back 1% losses since last December. It's much less common to see this kind of concentrated selling pressure when ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Index Put/Call, Hard vs. Soft data, earnings estimates collapse, Arms Index, REITs

2019-10-02 | Troy Bombardia


With stocks sensitive to weak manufacturing news, here's what I'm looking at:Index Put/Call ratioThere is a fair amount of fear in the markets, and yesterday's weak ISM manufacturing report did not help. As a result, the Index Put/Call has remained consistently high over the past 1-2 weeks.Since ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - MACD sell signal, Business Climate Indicator, VIX, different surprise indices, gold's 4Q rally

2019-10-01 | Troy Bombardia


As stocks continue to bounce around near all-time highs, here's what I'm looking at:MACD sell signalWith the U.S. stock market slowly trending downwards over the past week, more than 35% of S&P members have seen a MACD sell signal over the past 10 days:When this happened while the S&P was above ... [...]

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Stocks and the dollar are "joined at the pip"

2019-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Joined at the pipThere usually isn’t much of a correlation between movement in stocks and the dollar. As much as investors want to assign a narrative linking ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Gold flow and open interest, bond flow, VIX call buying, Hang Seng rollover

2019-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks mostly reverse yesterday's gains. One would think that any technical traders out there would be selling enough to close the gap should we lose the intraday lows of the past few weeks.Gold FlowDespite some shaky days lately, ETF traders don't seem too ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - IPO fear, Index Put/Call, Consumer Confidence, Baltic Dry Index, Bullish Percent Index

2019-09-26 | Troy Bombardia


With stocks bouncing around near all-time highs, here's what I'm looking at:IPO fearMuch e-ink has been spilled about IPO's this year, with Uber's falling stock price and WeWork's back-to-earth wakeup. Looking at the list of trending topics on Bloomberg, it's clear that IPO's are on traders' ... [...]

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The last 2 times there was impeachment talk, this happened

2019-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Impeach thisPolitical will seems to be growing to open an official impeachment inquiry against President Trump. That would mark the 3rd episode in the history ... [...]

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Wednesday color - Utility surge impact on stocks/gold, breadth rollover, skittish signs, Egypt

2019-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far as stocks try to recover from yesterday's impeachment ding.Another Ute SurgeUtility stocks once again were the heroes on Tuesday, providing a counter to overall weakness in stocks. As a result, there was yet another jump in those stocks hitting their ... [...]

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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

2019-09-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - South Korean exports, HiLo, gold's top?, no daily movements, India's surge

2019-09-24 | Troy Bombardia


With stocks stuck in a narrow range, here's what I'm looking at:South Korean exportsWhen bears look for global macro weakness, they typically look for variations of the following types of indicators:Yield curve inversionManufacturing contractionGlobal trade collapseIn terms of the "global trade ... [...]

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Monday color - Nifty rebound, a rocky week, small traders

2019-09-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a quiet day. As Troy noted over the weekend, most signs are still pointing higher but with less of a positive edge than we've seen in recent months.Nifty's TurnA couple of weeks ago, we looked at the jump in Japanese shares. At the time, there was a ... [...]

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McClellan Summation above zero for 169 days

2019-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


The McClellan Summation Index - a long term look at the momentum of the market's breadth - has been positive for 169 days. And with the McClellan Summation Index at 760 right now (solidly above zero), this streak is unlikely to end anytime soon.See this premium note for more. [...]

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What I'm looking at - Economic Surprise, low volatility, breadth, McClellan Summation, DAX

2019-09-20 | Troy Bombardia


The past few days have seen low volatility despite a nonstop stream of things to "worry about". Here's what I'm looking at:Economic SurpriseEconomic data continues to beat analysts' expectations, causing the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index to rise to its highest level since early-2018. This is ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Russell vs S&P Volatility, Summation Extremes, IWM Inflow, AAII Bulls

2019-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today. Indexes are nearing new highs, but the number of securities also hitting highs is lagging pretty badly. Troy mentioned this the other day and it may be even more of a shorter-term worry for the next couple of weeks if it continues.Volatility ... [...]

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A Big Jump In Big Money Bulls

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big money gets bullishThe latest survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that polls large money managers with nearly $700 billion under management showed a ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - FOMC Bias, Emerging Recovery, Japan, Fund Flow

2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets await the Fed's latest guidance.Fed FadeThe FOMC chairman will announce their decision on interest rates and present a statement, which will be the obsession of traders this afternoon. For whatever reason, stocks have not reacted all that well on FOMC ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - manufacturing still weak, housing recovery?, bearish tops, NASDAQ breadth, new highs

2019-09-17 | Troy Bombardia


With the stock market hovering near all-time highs, here's what I'm looking at:U.S. manufacturing still weakAs I've said over the past month, U.S. manufacturing remains weak. ISM Manufacturing is below 50 (contraction), and Industrial Production's YoY % change has now fallen below 0.4%On its ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Germany, Smart Money Index, volume-based breadth, oil spike, Equity Put/Call

2019-09-16 | Troy Bombardia


With the stock market hovering near an all-time high, here's what I'm looking at:GermanyGermany's economy remains weak. Germany Whole Prices, which measures the value of sales from German wholesalers, have fallen -1.1% year-over-year. On the surface this may seem bearish for for the German stock ... [...]

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Up Volume 15-day average cycles from 40% to 63%

2019-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


With the S&P trading near all-time highs after a slump in August, the NYSE Up Volume ratio's 15 day average has gone from under 0.4 to above 0.63. Whereas volume once mostly flowed into issues that were falling, volume is now mostly flowing issues that are rising.See this premium note for more. [...]

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Bond Bulls Curb Their Enthusiasm

2019-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Break in bond bullsFor the first time in more than 9 months, optimism on bonds has come down to neutral territory. That ends one of the longest streaks in ... [...]

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Nikkei 225 sees jump in stocks at 1-month high

2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


On the Nikkei 225, more than 70% of stocks hit a short-term high yesterday, while fewer than 1.5% are at a 52-week high.See this premium note for more. [...]

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What's Better Than Bonds?

2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Beautiful breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line for most of the major indexes are at or near all-time highs. Same for every one of the major S&P 500 ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Breakaway Gaps, Japan Jumps, Small-Caps Pop, Dollar

2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.BreakawayOne of the signs that this recovery is a bit different from some of the other attempts is that there have been three times now when the S&P 500 futures gapped up with a large gain at the open, and sellers were not interested enough to close ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - OECD, small caps, various breadth indicators

2019-09-11 | Troy Bombardia


With the stock market near an all-time high, here's what I'm looking at:OECD Composite Leading IndicatorAs popular bear David Rosenberg pointed out, the OECD's Leading Indicator (USA) has fallen for the 15th consecutive month. This often occurred in the middle of a recession, which is why the ... [...]

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A Historic Turn In Fortunes

2019-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Growth no mo’ momoThe swift exodus from momentum stocks has hit those classified as “growth” hard, especially relative to those considered to be “value.” The ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Russell vs Nasdaq, Sector Divvies, Bond Whipsaw, Jumps Above BBands

2019-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a quiet day.DivergentWe've looked a couple of times at the remarkable shift in momentum between winners and losers, growth and value over the last couple of days. While it's tempting to read a broader shift into it, sharp, severe ones like this have happened ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - NASDAQ McClellan, Rotation, Greed & Fear, Small Business Hiring, world economy

2019-09-10 | Troy Bombardia


Here's what I'm looking at:NASDAQ McClellanThe ratio-adjusted NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator, which looks at the momentum of the NASDAQ's breadth, has now exceeded 50.This figure isn't extremely high. But when the McClellan Oscillator crossed above 50 for the first time in more than 6 months, the ... [...]

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Gold's Shocking Drop

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Gold’s bull runETF traders have consistently poured money into gold funds, even during Thursday’s big drop, which was a “shocking” decline.It started to fall ... [...]

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Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on a so-far quiet start to the week.Returning Risk AppetiteOver the past few weeks, we've gone over many signs that investors are seriously anxious. To an extreme and surprising degree, given that stocks were holding up relatively well.Now we're starting to see ... [...]

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Why So Defensive?

2019-09-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.High on defensivesThe most defensive sectors of the market, consumer staples and utilities, saw a jump in the number of stocks rising to 52-week highs.This ... [...]

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Wall Street Is The Most Confused In 20 Years

2019-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The Street is behind and confusedWall Street analysts have underestimated the growth in S&P 500 company earnings growth for a year, one of the longest ... [...]

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A Trade-Related Gap

2019-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


Stock futures are jumping this morning, with another trade-related headline. Per the WSJ:That has sent S&P 500 futures more than 0.75% above yesterday's close. It's often questionable to assign movements in the futures to a single issue, but this one seems pretty clear.Traders have been jerked ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Recession Probability Model, emerging markets, Treasury yields, breadth, Consumer Confidence

2019-09-04 | Troy Bombardia


The S&P has rallied back to the top of this month-long range. Here's what I'm looking at.NY Fed Recession Probability ModelWith the yield curve pushing deeper into inversion territory, the "probability of a recession" from various popular recession models based on yield curves continues to ... [...]

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Imminent Recession (So They Say)

2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.An unequal monthAn index that equally-weights each of the stocks in the S&P 500 badly under-performed the capitalization-weighted version of the index that ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper

2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks bounce back after a lessening of geopolitical tension, for the moment at least.Sad StreetThe WSJ notes that expected forward earnings for the S&P 500 is expected to show barely any growth in the quarters ahead according to Wall Street analysts. That's ... [...]

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Sectors In Sync Makes Investors Crabby

2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.All up or all downHalf of the days so far this month have seen every major S&P 500 sector move up or down together. This makes it one of the most "all ... [...]

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


A Daily Report won't be published today, so we're sending this Bulletin. This is what a typical premium note would contain. I post a note during most trading days, and Troy does as well after U.S. hours.We've also unlocked all other premium posts from this week:Friday - Switching from stocks to ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks gyrate ahead of what is likely to be an exodus of traders from their screens over the next couple of sessions.Stocks Down, Bonds UpAugust has been a bad month for stocks and wonderful one for bonds, leading to one of the widest divergences between them ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Social Pessimism, Big Drops, Brazil Breadth, Ag Bears

2019-08-27 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we head into what is likely going to be one of the slowest-moving periods of the year.Socially AwkwardDepending on who you ask and who you follow, Twitter is either an amazing resource to find real-time ideas and collaboration among some of the smartest ... [...]

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What I'm looking at: National Activity Index, SPY breadth, short term breakout, bond yields, Ifo

2019-08-27 | Troy Bombardia


The stock market remains volatile within a narrow range. Here's what I'm looking at.Chicago Fed National Activity IndexThe Chicago Fed publishes a National Activity Index that gauges whether the national economy is growing above or below its average historical rate. Readings > 0 indicate ... [...]

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Friday Color - Wipeout, Extremes, HiLo Too High

2019-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


I'm technically out of the office today, but with the volatility wanted to touch on a couple of things. We were humming along fine, until the renewed bout of chest-pounding hit the tape and now stocks are suffering relatively large losses.Friday WipeoutThere is a concern that a big wipeout on a ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - State Coincident Index, Conference Board, McClellan Summation, TLT Optix, Treasury yields

2019-08-23 | Troy Bombardia


The stock market is flat ahead of Jackson Hole. Here's what I'm looking at:Philly Fed State Coincident IndexThe Philadelphia Federal Reserve creates a coincident index for each state that looks at whether a state's economy is improving or deteriorating. The Philly Fed then combines this into a ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Put/Call spike, Rydex flows, Rydex breadth, Economic Surprise & bonds

2019-08-22 | Troy Bombardia


The stock market continues to bounce within a range. Here's what I'm looking at.Put/Call spikeWhile the stock market rallied more than 0.8% yesterday, the Total Put/Call ratio spiked to the highest level since this pullback/correction began. This is extremely rare because the stock market and ... [...]

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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

2019-08-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ... [...]

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Stocks Have Gone Absolutely Nowhere

2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Going nowhereThe most benchmarked index in the world has gone nowhere for over a year and a half. The S&P 500 was just trading at the same level it was at in ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Overseas Rebound, Sector Recoveries, HY vs IG Spreads, VIX Drop

2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks gyrate in what is likely going to be a pattern of low (and lower) volume in the days ahead.Overseas ReboundIn the Hang Seng index of Hong Kong stocks, 90% of them have jumped enough to trade above the 10-day averages. That has preceded some short-term ... [...]

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S&P 500 after McOsc rises above 0 and McSumm never went < +100

2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


The NYSE Oscillator has jumped above the zero line (and barely held above there on Tuesday), while the Summation Index never dropped below +100. It suggests a potential end to a corrective period within a long-term positive-momentum market.See the August 20 report for more detail. [...]

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What I'm looking at - economic conditions, German manufacturing, Equity Put/Call, New Highs & Lows, Dollar vs. Gold

2019-08-20 | Troy Bombardia


With the stock market still volatile on a day-to-day basis, here's what I'm looking at:Economic ConditionsThe University of Michigan publishes a Current Economic Conditions Index that asks consumers how they view current economic conditions in the country. The survey includes more than 500 ... [...]

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Panic-Level Selling Last Week As Bonds Hit Historic Extreme

2019-08-19 | Jason Goepfert


Safe haven heavenFriday provided some relief, but the past few weeks have been rocky for stocks. In response, investors moved aggressively into havens like bonds and gold. The 3-week change in the total return on bonds and gold are so far above that for stocks that it’s neared a 30-year ... [...]

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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

2019-08-17 | Troy Bombardia


I usually write an overview of the markets each week that combines the technical & fundamental indicators I look at:Technicals (1-2 months): no clear edge in either direction. If I had to guess, I think there’s a 60% chance that the S&P makes new lows. Not decisive.Technicals (3-6 months): ... [...]

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Friday Color - Risk Off, Options Anxiety, Many Lows, Big MOVE, Sector Extremes

2019-08-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as bulls try to enjoy a summer Friday.AnxiousSigns of nervousness are everywhere. Over the past couple of days, we've seen a spike in pessimistic extremes, so there's no shortage of examples. Troy pointed out several aggregate sentiment gauges (Dumb Money, CNN ... [...]

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What I'm looking at - Liquidity Premium, Bullish Percent Index, Down Volume, Equity Put/Call, Value Line Geometric Index

2019-08-15 | Troy Bombardia


Hi everyone, it’s Troy. The market has been in a downtrend recently. This is my first post, so let’s dive straight into it.SPY Liquidity PremiumAs the stock market remains in a downtrend, market participants are favoring securities with more liquidity. Index ETFs such as SPY are generally deemed ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Turmoil, Double Losses, Recession Talk, Financials, Sectors

2019-08-15 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far during this tentative recovery attempt.Fear MongeringPerhaps there is no greater sign of the anxiety among investors than when the television channel most geared toward unsophisticated investors runs a special report highlighting the volatility.Red ... [...]

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The End Of A Historic Streak Of Terribleness

2019-08-14 | Jason Goepfert


Beating expectationsFor the first time in 6 months, economic reports in the U.S. haven’t totally sucked. The Citi Economic Surprise Index is starting to rise quickly, as economists deflated their estimates enough for the economic data to catch up. This ends the longest terrible streak since the ... [...]

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A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash

2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gamma, Dislocations, Merval & Hang Seng, Emerging Fund Outflow, Bond Optix

2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as we get some relief from the daily threat of trade dispute escalations. We'll have to see if this holds into the close and triggers another big up thrust day from the recent low.New IndicatorsYou can now view the HiLo Logic Index for both the NYSE and ... [...]

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S&P 500 After Double 70% Up Volume Days Following A Low

2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


On the next page, we can see every time since 1950 when the S&P fell to a 30-day low while still holdingabove its 200-day average, then enjoyed two sessions of more than 70% up volume within a few days.It’s usually better to see truly extreme buying pressure, but even these were enough to ... [...]

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Monday Color - 8 Straight 1%-ers, Large Calls, Corrections, Gold Buyers, Emerging Momentum

2019-08-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another tough start to a week.Lots Of WigglesThe Financial Times notes that this has been a particularly jarring time for traders, with now 8 straight sessions undergoing at least a 1% intraday change in the S&P 500. Historically, this is a long streak but ... [...]

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Volatility Spike - What Happens Next

2019-08-12 | Jason Goepfert


One and doneMonday’s session was notable for several reasons, mainly its shocking quality after investors became accustomed to much smaller moves. Wall Street generally believes this is not a “one and done” and there is more volatility to come.Historically, the argument for that is not ... [...]

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Friday Color - Lows Recede, Summation Rollover, Bad Ag, Bond Bulls (Again)

2019-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders deal with another tremor on trade tweets.RecoveringWhen monitoring for extremes, there are typically three strategies for implementation:1. When it first registers an extreme2. When it registers an extreme, then price triggers a technical entry3. When ... [...]

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The Stock-Bond Relationship Is Out Of Whack

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


Strained relationshipThe drop in stocks over the past week didn’t happen in isolation, as traders fled to the perceived safety of the bond market. That moved the Stock/Bond Ratio to an extreme level, even while the S&P remains in a generally positive environment.This has typically resolved in ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders try to put Monday's carnage behind them.Island TimeIt's still early, of course, but stocks are making a valiant attempt to carve out an "island" bottom. This happens when traders panic and force an unfilled gap to the downside (Monday in our current ... [...]

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Shocks' Strong Tendency To Recover

2019-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


Shocking^3We’ve looked at “shock days” quite a bit over the years, most recently in May. Monday’s session exceeded the one in May, with a move more than 3 deviations beyond what investors have become accustomed to over the past year.Swift, sharp declines like this almost never end up morphing ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Bulls Gone, Put Volume, Energy Drop, Asian Axiety

2019-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another volatile morning.Buy The DipIt's still awfully early, but SPY is on track to recover at least 1.25% from its intraday low on back-to-back sessions, after having dropped to at least a one-month low.Since the end of the financial crisis, that has ... [...]

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Only Black Monday And 9/11 Were Worse Than This

2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


Cluster muckSigns of a “split” market started to trigger in mid-July and continued to accrue into the first days of August. This has been one of the tighter clusters of warning signs we’ve seen over the past 50 years.By the time some of these trigger, stocks have already declined somewhat. By ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Opening Volatility, New Lows, Sector Extremes, Big Outflows

2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders push the indexes into rebound mode.BoingFutures are ramping higher this morning after an after-close plunge, triggering all kinds of overnight volatility. During a generally rising market, this would be the largest opening rebound after a big down day ... [...]

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Gaps And Warnings And Volatility, Oh My

2019-08-05 | Jason Goepfert


NOTE: This is an excerpt from Monday's premium note.SplatTraders get to start the new week staring at large losses in the futures. That follows a week that was pretty much straight down, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the past 5 sessions.We haven't faced this kind of opening pessimism since ... [...]

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Monday Color - Gaps, Volatility Jump, Options Buying, Warning Cluster, Hong Kong

2019-08-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders gear up for a bout of Monday morning volatility.SplatTraders get to start the new week staring at large losses in the futures. That follows a week that was pretty much straight down, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the past 5 sessions.We haven't ... [...]

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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash

2019-07-25 | Jason Goepfert


NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico

2019-07-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Leaking AssetsThe major indexes (excepting the Russell 2000) have risen toward fresh highs over the past week, but ETF traders don't seem to care. Assets in SPY, DIA, and QQQ have all declined over the past 5 sessions.Shares outstanding in all 3 ... [...]

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Tightest Cluster Of Small-Cap Weakness Since '99

2019-07-24 | Jason Goepfert


A large “small” divergenceOver the past 30 days, there have now been 6 sessions when the S&P 500 was at or near a 52-week high, but the ratio of the small-cap Russell 2000 index to the S&P sunk to a 52-week low. That’s the tightest cluster of days since April 1999.Large, rounded peaks in the ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

2019-07-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on another day that's finding buyers not sticking around.Gold HedgeBloomberg notes that per Goldman Sachs, investors may be better off hedging against uncertainty with the yen than with gold. That's based on how pricey each of them are according to the ... [...]

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200 Reasons Why The Hindenburg Omen Matters

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


Warning signsFor the first time since October 2018, there are hints of trouble brewing beneath the market. While major indexes have been at or near all-time highs, under the surface there are more and more stocks losing momentum, and there has been a split with many securities at 52-week highs ... [...]

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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


I won't be publishing a Daily Report this afternoon, so this post is being sent as a Bulletin to all users. This is similar to what is included in the premium notes published most days.Bully BullyEven after a choppy week, the smallest of options traders have sustained their belief in a continued ... [...]

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Hindenburg Omen Triggers For The 1st Time In 3 Months

2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


A warning for stocks last fall was triggered by several conditions, primarily that major indexes were still in uptrends, but fewer and fewer stocks were driving them higher (the McClellan Oscillator moved below zero) and the market was split with a large number of securities hitting 52-week ... [...]

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Friday Color - Gold Momentum, Internal Warnings, Mexico

2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this summer Friday that's having some issues trying to hold any buying interest.UnstoppableGold reacted very well to the newly renewed projections of a larger rate cut at the next Fed meeting, breaking out again to another new high. So far, it has managed to ... [...]

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Momentum Is Waning And Stocks Are Starting To Split

2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


Six months of momentumThe McClellan Summation Index has now gone 6 months in positive territory.That’s a long streak compared to others since 1962. Momentum is very difficult to time, almost by definition, but by the time this measure of breadth momentum went this long above zero, forward ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Fading 'Mo, Energy Stock Drop, Titanic Signal, Cotton, Euro Junk

2019-07-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what's starting out to be a minor hangover from yesterday's pressure.Breadth ReviewAcross sectors and indexes, breadth underlying the recent rally has been ebbing, and most of the McClellan Oscillators we track are now below zero.This means that the ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Dow Stocks, Dumb Money, Gamma, Microsoft Expectations, Germany

2019-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as some of the negatives that have piled up start to take some effect.Sector BreadthIndustrial stocks have been chugging higher, and it has been enough that nearly every Dow Industrial stock is trading above their 50-day moving average. This is the best out of ... [...]

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Friday Color - Yield Curve, Small Caps, XLU vs XLE, Bonds, Brazil

2019-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what looks to be another small-range attempt at new highs.SteeperOne of my family's great jokes is that although I'm 6'7", I don't like heights. It's a never-ending source of entertainment for them - tall guy who's afraid of heights, haha. My knees get weak, ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Dovish Fed, Sector Extremes, Round #, Value Line Lag, Twitter Bulls

2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what so far is looking like a very narrow-range day.When Doves FlyAccording to a note from Nordea Markets, the Fed has become the most dovish since 2009. This is based on the language the Fed uses in statements to the public, with a "dovish" bent meaning they ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - High Yield Rally, Sector Breadth, Recession Risk, Yield Drop

2019-07-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another day showing a recovery from early weakness.High Times For JunkOver the past couple of weeks, the high-yield (junk) bond market has enjoyed one of its best stretches in at least 14 years. Nearly 30% of the 2,000+ bonds tracked by the Nasdaq hit ... [...]

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This Is One Of Tech's Quickest Recoveries

2019-07-03 | Jason Goepfert


New highs, but...The S&P jumped to a record high along with several other indexes on Monday (and Tuesday) but fewer stocks were coming along for the ride both days. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE and within the S&P itself has shrunk from when the indexes moved toward new highs in June.That ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to drift away ahead of what is likely to be an extended holiday weekend.Tech RecoveryThe WSJ notes that the S&P 500's tech components have reached a new high for the first time in months, erasing the 10% correction from May.This is one of the ... [...]

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Monday Color - High Gap, Weekly Indicators, Sector Breadth

2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as buyers try to push stocks to new highs to start the month.Back To HighsWith a (temporary? permanent?) relief to trade tensions, buyers are pushing stock futures to new highs. For S&P 500 futures, this is the largest positive opening gap that is above all ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Gas, Wall St Strategists, Sector Breadth, Lagging U.S.

2019-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks meander ahead of a big international meeting and summer holidays.Gas StocksYesterday, we saw that natural gas was the most-hated commodity, and over the past 15 years it has had a strong tendency to rebound over the next month or so.If we look at how ... [...]

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets meander on a post-breakout summer Friday.Sell Stocks, Buy BondsThat seems to be the mantra among fund investors, anyway. On Thursday, SPY, HYG, and LQD all hit new highs. Yet investors pulled more than $4 billion from SPY, and added nearly $2 billion ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Morning Gap, Sector Breadth, Gold Breakout

2019-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders ramp up stocks prior to the open.Post-Meeting GapIn apparent reaction to yesterday's FOMC decision and statement, traders are bidding up the futures. This is quite a change from a few weeks ago when two out of every three days opened with a gap ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Everything Rallies, Bond Flow and Vol, Within 1%, Energy, France

2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Everything RalliesTuesday provided some interesting cross-currents, allowing assets to rise that normally provide some balance to each other. It was a bad day to be short pretty much anything - stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, ... [...]

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Split S&P 500 Between Highs And Bear Markets

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


Typically, when we see more than 20% of stocks at new highs, fewer than 20% of the other stocks in the index are doing so badly that they’re in bear markets, roughly defined as being at least 20% off their highs. Yet this time around, more than 40% of stocks in the S&P are in bear markets.Split ... [...]

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The Most Split S&P 500 In History

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


Split indexWith the recent surge in stocks, more than 20% of them in the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high. But the percentage of stocks mired in a bear market, or at least 20% off their highs, hasn’t come down by much.This leaves a split index, with a lot of stocks at either a new high, or in bear ... [...]

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Monday Color - Tiny Range, Options Traders, A Split S&P, Empire Fail

2019-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what's likely to be several waiting-for-the-Fed days.No CommitmentThe WSJ notes that stocks have been stuck for the past week. The S&P 500 hasn't had a daily up or down move of more than 0.5% for what would be the 6th straight day, if today's meandering ... [...]

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Why Aren't Hedgies Buying?

2019-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


Another near-thrustEnough stocks have risen during the past two weeks, with enough volume flow, that it has nearly triggered another Zweig Breadth Thrust.Like we’ve seen with a lot of indicators over the past month or so, what’s most notable about these readings isn’t necessarily what they’re ... [...]

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Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen

2019-06-14 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a choppy Friday.Bond FlowOver the past 8 sessions, corporate bond ETFs LQD, HYG, and JNK have seen steady inflows. To a near-record degree, in fact. That happened in the midst of a nice run in January of this year, with no ill effect. But it also ... [...]

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A Tale Of 2 Sectors

2019-06-14 | Jason Goepfert


A tale of two sectorsMost utility stocks have been rising over the past 3 weeks and are trading above their 50-day averages. Few energy stocks can boast the same.When there has been this wide of a divergence between those two sectors, the broader market had a strong tendency to rise with only ... [...]

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Advance/Decline Line At New High

2019-06-13 | Jason Goepfert


The rally over the past week has been impressive, and its breadth has been expanding. Enough securities have been rising that the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line made a new high on Thursday.This is typically taken as a sign of healthy and liquid markets and has done an admirable job of it ... [...]

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Utility vs Energy Stocks In Uptrends

2019-06-13 | Jason Goepfert


The starkest divergence among the sectors at the moment is between utility and energy stocks. Nearly 80% of utes are trading above their 50-day averages, while fewer than 10% of energy stocks are. Over the past three weeks, the difference between them has grown historically wide.Below, we can ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.ReversalsYesterday I made a brief mention of the reversal pattern over the past two days, where SPY hit its highest level in a month intraday but reversed to close in the bottom third of its range both days.For those wanting more detail, here are ... [...]

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Defensive Stocks Dominate The New High List - Does It Matter?

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


A defensive new high listAcross the equity market, securities at a 52-week high have expanded. Same goes for companies within the S&P 500. And within that index, it’s been more of the defensive sectors that have seen the best participation.While that suggests a potentially worrisome risk-off ... [...]

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Small Traders Buy Record Hedges Even As Financials Surge

2019-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


Financial recoveryFor the first time since early 2018, more than a quarter of financial stocks within the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high.This kind of a surge has been good for the sector, with gains over the next year every time.In 2000, this jump in new highs among financial stocks led to a 4% ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gaps Up, Bond Flow, Weird Volatility, Sector Highs

2019-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another gap-up morning.Another GapNear the depths of pessimism a couple of weeks ago, we saw that traders were extremely anxious, pushing stock futures lower almost every morning. They've reversed the tide, now futures are gapping up every day.This will be ... [...]

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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight

2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.High-LightOne of the most notable developments of the rally to end last week was the expanding number of securities that erased their May pullbacks. Nearly 10% of issues on the NYSE reached a 52-week high on Friday, the most since January ... [...]

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A Big Jobs Miss As Highs Surge

2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


JobsWe saw on Thursday that a big miss in the ADP report possibly meant a big miss in the Nonfarm Payroll report today, and if it dove to a 5-year low, would be a bad sign for stocks. The report missed, but wasn't bad enough to trigger the 5-year low. So at least there's that.But the report did ... [...]

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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

2019-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


Like Tuesday, I won't be publishing a Daily Report, but will instead send this as a Bulletin. This is typically what's sent out around midday as a Premium Note - it's a look at my notebook of things I'm watching throughout the day, some of which then make it into the Reports.The summary portions ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico

2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.StretchedThe massive move in bonds continues to get a lot of attention, and for good reason. We saw the other day that it's relatively unusual to see a new high in bonds (low in yields) with an explosion in volatility, and that has been a good sign ... [...]

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Buyers' 1-2 Punch For Stocks

2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


A one-two rallyThe S&P 500 fell to a 50-day low on Monday, and the charts didn’t look good, but they hid a lot of underlying potential. Both Monday and Tuesday saw eager buying pressure under the surface, and Tuesday’s one-day jump in the S&P was the largest in nearly six months.When the index ... [...]

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Buying Thrust Off A Low

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


The snapback on Tuesday was notable because of the structure: 1) Stocks hit a 50-day low, 2) in a relatively healthy market, and the rebound was 3) the largest in more than 100 days and 4) there was broad participation.More than 70% of volume flowed into advancing stocks that day. Nearly 90% was ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far this morning. When there's a large or notable gap I prefer to get these out early, even if today's looks to be fading as we head into the open.GappyStock futures are on track to show a relatively large positive gap up this morning as traders show some ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Bond Volatility And Optimism, Gold, Flows, Tech Breadth

2019-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


Since we won't be publishing a Daily Report today, we're going to send this Premium Note to all members.This is similar to what's published most days around midday. It's essentially my notebook of things I'm looking at during the day, some of which make it into the Daily Report. There tends to ... [...]

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Monday Color - Cycle Peak, De-Risking, Silver, Breadth Extremes

2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another day failing to hold a rally.Mixed MessagesDepending on the data set, or even on the day, the fundamental picture for markets looks just as muddled as the technical one. One of the biggest worries is that the economy may be tipping into recession, ... [...]

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Why This Has Been A Healthy Pullback

2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


From new high to downtrendBarely a month after it was sitting at an all-time high, the S&P 500 fell far enough and fast enough to close below its 200-day average.This is one of the index’s quicker turnarounds from being at a multi-year high to falling below its average. When it had spent at ... [...]

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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another big gap down day.Gap ManAnother unexpected Tweet by the president pushed stocks lower immediately on Thursday and that anxiety has carried over into this morning. Stock futures are on track to gap down by more than 1%, the latest in a long string ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another morning with a largish negative gap open.GapStocks are showing another large negative gap this morning, adding to what has been a near-record cluster of anxious openings. Forgetting the fact that this comes on the heels of that cluster, we can see ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.5 StraightWe saw at the end of last week that the Dow Industrials had just suffered its 5th straight negative week, a rarely-seen bout of selling pressure given the index is so near its high.It's not the only index. The Shanghai Composite also ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Dow's 5th Loss, Energy Breadth, Utes, Social Negatives

2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest approaching a long holiday weekend and buyers seemingly anxious to hold.LosingIf the Dow continues to slide and closes out its 5th-straight week with a loss, it will be the first time in 40 years it's lost so consistently while still hovering within 5% of its ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Panic, Few Bulls, Asian Slide

2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this increasingly ugly-looking day.More GapsThe anxiety surrounding trade worries is the reason most commonly given to traders' overnight anxiety. Whatever the reason, there is no question that they don't want to hang around for the opening of regular ... [...]

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This Has Happened To Tech Only Twice Before

2019-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


From first to worstStocks have lost one of their biggest drivers. Tech stocks have powered much of the rally through April, and then fell hard. The sector was leading the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, and then fell to the worst among them over the past few weeks.That does not happen often, and ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shorts, Emerging Mkts, Sector Extremes

2019-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Not Too ShortOne of the hopeful charts bouncing around at the moment is the rising level of short interest in the largest ETF in the world. Looks like traders are betting on a big fall in SPY, which doesn't usually happen when they're expecting it. ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Bonds, Renewed Momo, Overseas Extremes

2019-05-17 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders try to end the week on an up note.PanickyThe pre-market nerves are continuing. We've touched on this a few times this week, and traders continue to push futures down before the open of regular trading hours. Over the past 10 days, the average gap in ... [...]

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Traders Are Panicking The Most Since The Financial Crisis

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


More momentum miscuesSigns of waning momentum are everywhere. One of the more impressive signs of intense underlying buying was in the Dow Industrials, where the McClellan Summation Index held above 1,000 for nearly three months, until now.Other times that extreme momentum finally ended over the ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Big Outflows, More Hedging, Falling Momo

2019-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.FlowsOn Tuesday, there were outflows among a large number and variety of equity funds. A bunch of them lost more than $25 million in assets on the day, led by the two most popular.That continues a trend for both SPY and QQQ. Across all of the major ... [...]

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Momentum Traders' First Real Test

2019-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


Testing momentumIn early January, stocks registered a Zweig Breath Thrust when Up Volume quickly swung from oversold to overbought. This week, the indicator hit an oversold level for the first time, testing momentum traders’ conviction.Other times that months passed between a thrust and the ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - More Gaps, Breadth (Down) Thrusts, Overseas Drops

2019-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today. It's not midday, but I prefer to get these out early if there are large gaps.ReliefStocks are on track to rebound strongly following Monday's bad loss. The futures are looking to gap up at least 0.5%, following a day when they gapped down more than ... [...]

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Sentiment Is Curling

2019-05-13 | Jason Goepfert


Summation finally weakensWe’ve discussed the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes a lot in recent months, because they have been showing notable readings of momentum. That’s starting to ease with the long-term Summation Index, which dropped below 750 for the first time in months, ending ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Pre-Market Fear, Failures, Overseas Extremes, Momentum Drops

2019-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this edgy Friday.Pre-Market FearThe uncertainty surrounding the trade posturing has triggered quite a bit of nervousness ahead of regular trading hours. By 8:30am EST, futures have shown relatively large losses each of the past six days. During the ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - First Pullback, Weak Sectors, Returning Investors

2019-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this whippy day.Finally, A 3%-erThe S&P 500 is on track to pull back by more than 3% from the highest point it rallied to since the December bottom. That's the first time it's pulled back by this "large" of an amount. That streak of more than 90 days ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Vol Surge, Dow Drops, Sector Extremes

2019-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this meandering day.Vol SurgeThere are no shortage of measures which capture the big move on Tuesday. Perhaps because of the headline-driven nature of the decline, historical comparisons are less appropriate, but that seems to be the case ever time. ... [...]

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4 Energetic Extremes

2019-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


Energy extremesThe selling pressure earlier this week in the energy sector triggered several shorter-term extremes in breadth. Most of those stocks fell to their lowest in a month, below their volatility bands. Few held above their short-term moving averages.When the sector had rebounded more ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Momentum Market, Energy Washout, Russell Breakout

2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another positive Friday. This marks the S&P's 14th rally out of 16 Fridays since the beginning of the year.Momentum MarketHere's a question I got the other day, reflecting some version that's been asked several times essentially asking the same thing:So ... [...]

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Why Beans Should Bounce

2019-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


No oomph in OscillatorThe McClellan Oscillator hasn’t been able to get above zero even as the S&P 500 and other indexes tick to new highs on multiple days.Over the past 57 years, this has been a negative sign of underlying weakness for stocks, though the sample is small, and the most recent ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch

2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders await the latest guidance from the Fed.Breadth ReviewUtilities have picked up again. Most of the breadth measures are meandering around neutral or slightly stretch. The big move yesterday, though, pushed nearly 60% of those stocks outside of their ... [...]

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A Shocking Volatility Twist With Recovering Financials

2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


Volatility twistOver the past month, volatility in big tech stocks has been lower than volatility in stocks specifically chosen because of their staid nature, according to Bloomberg data. Historical volatility on the Nasdaq 100 fell below that of the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, a rare twist ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - No Cash, Bullish On Bonds, Financials' Breadth

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this month-end, yet-another-buy-on-weakness day.No CashThe latest data from the Investment Company Institute shows that mutual fund managers reduced their cash positions again in March. They're now holding 2.9% of client assets in liquid instruments, ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss

2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Kanye Wouldn't Be HappyThe WSJ, via BofAML, notes that companies aren't mentioning positive keywords much on their earnings calls. They searched through call transcripts over the past 16 years and show that there have been few mentions of ... [...]

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Breadth Breathes As A Bearish Candle Engulfs Oil

2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth takes a breatherIn January, breadth momentum was so impressive that the McClellan Oscillator held above 50 for over a month. Since then, it hasn’t climbed above that level even as stocks made great gains.This is a divergence that has triggered near several important market peaks, but the ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Flows, Breadth Extremes, Shanghai

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this Friday.Argentinian AngstThe WSJ notes that consumer confidence in Argentina has taken another hit due to political instability. I know next to nothing about the country, but it's at least worth noting that over the past 6 months, consumer ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk

2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Dollar BetsYesterday's report noted the multi-year breakout in the dollar, which has had a tendency to pull back most of the time over the next 2-6 months. The long-term trend has been about flat, so breakouts have had a tendency to be unsustainable ... [...]

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Stocks Have A Participation Problem

2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


Debt declinesWhen stocks rally, investors tend to borrow more against their shares. There is a high positive correlation between changes in stock indexes and changes in margin debt.That’s breaking down this year, though. As stocks have rallied, investors have held back on their debt. It’s not as ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Bond Bulls, High-Yield Breadth, Lagging S&P Stocks, Tech Values

2019-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Bond BullsThe rush into long-term Treasury ETFs has been really something. Four of the largest funds have increased their shares outstanding by more than 15% in just the past week. The last couple of times, that coincided with short-term exhaustion ... [...]

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A Most Excellent Recovery

2019-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


An excellent recoveryThe S&P 500’s new high marks an end to the correction, one of the S&P’s most impressive recoveries from a major decline from a prior all-time high. Other times it made a somewhat similarly-sized recovery over a quick- to moderate time frame, it tended to keep going, but it ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a curiously strong day.RecoveryIn spite of overwhelmingly optimistic sentiment in some models, buyers continue to persist. For months, the most positive thing about stocks was the price activity (and breadth from December through February), and that ... [...]

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4 Reasons Why Health Care Could Rebound

2019-04-20 | Jason Goepfert


Health care’s bad weekHealth care stocks have gotten hit, and it’s erased their year-to-date gain, while the S&P 500 has held up. The divergence between the two this far into a year is unusual.Other times health care underperformed by more than 5% through this many sessions into a year, it led ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Health Care, Opex

2019-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this pre-holiday Mueller-fest.DamagedThe carnage in health care stocks over the past few days has generated some interesting readings in the breadth metrics. The move was swift and severe enough that more than 60% of stocks in the sector closed below ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Tech Breakout & Breadth, Screens

2019-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on yet another potential reversal day.BreakoutEven if the rally in tech fades, on an intraday basis the Nasdaq 100 has bested its prior multi-year high by at least 0.5%. The most bullish aspects about this market aren't fundamental, and they're certainly ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Super ConfidentDumb Money Confidence has entered a "super extreme" phase. In the 20 year history of the model, only two distinct time periods can compare - the recoveries from the last two major bear markets. That was a good long-term sign of ... [...]

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Does The Low Volume Really Matter?

2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


Low-volume rallyEach of the past three weeks has seen the S&P 500 inch ever closer to a new high. At the same time, investors have grown increasingly comfortable, as volume continues to decline and is now more than 10% below its yearly average.It’s entirely normal for volume to ratchet higher ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on tax day.April 15Just because.Breadth ReviewThere was another surge in French stocks hitting multi-month highs to end last week, at nearly 50% of CAC components.That has helped to push its long-term breadth momentum to an extreme.In the U.S., the ... [...]

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No Spike In New Highs - What It Means

2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


A sparse new high listThe S&P 500 has been hanging near its former high, but relatively few securities on the NYSE have been able to push above their former peaks. It’s now been 300 days since more than 7% of issues on the NYSE hit a new high, ranking as one of the longest stretches in 50 years. ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this potential bearish-engulfing day.Emerging EmergingPretty much every study we've looked at for emerging markets since last fall has been bullish, and those markets continue to plug along. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has now rallied for its 10th ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Mexican MomentumIn Friday's report, we saw that "The MSCI Mexico Index closed above its 200-days for the first time in six months on Friday. Other times it went this long before ending a downtrend, it added to gains over ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on yet another day with buyers stepping in on the smallest downtick.RecoveryAmong the major S&P 500 sectors, the first to entirely erase its decline was information technology, scoring its first new all-time high since last fall. That is a quick ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Nice RunBulls have been pushing things, with a long streak of up days and new 100-day highs. For the past 7 sessions, the S&P 500 fund, SPY, has gapped up at the open. We haven't seen that kind of pre-market enthusiasm since January 2018.It's ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Crude RecoveryThe WSJ notes that crude oil has finally managed to recover above its 200-day average after a long period below. At its depths, it was more than 30% below its average, a truly severe decline.When it has closed above its average after ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Breadth ReviewThe jump on Monday triggered a number of new extremes. Every material stock rose above their 10-day moving averages, which we don't see too often. If we add some context and look for times it triggered when XLB rose above a declining ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this fading rally day.Breadth ReviewThere was a spike in the number of stocks on the Brazilian Ibovespa exchange falling below their lower Bollinger Bands. This happens when stocks are trading in a relatively narrow range then suddenly ... [...]

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Options Traders Bet On Decline As S&P Meets Target And Utes Surge

2019-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


Options bets and strategists’ spreadAs stocks rally, options traders have built up a large position in S&P 500 put options, relative to the number of outstanding calls. It’s the opposite in VIX options, where they have few puts and many calls. Since 2006, this has led to a negative annualized ... [...]

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Surge In New Highs Among Utilities

2019-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


For such a normally staid sector, a lot of utilities have been putting in impressive performances. It has been enough that more than 80% of them recently hit a 52-week high at the same time. That’s among the best readings in nearly 30 years.Across all time frames, utilities struggled to gain any ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this recovery day.Breadth MovesA somewhat swift dip in Swiss stocks moved the McClellan Oscillator below -90 for the SMI. Since that market's major low in 2011, readings like this in an uptrend have had a strong tendency to rebound. A caveat is that ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this recovery day.Waning ConfidenceToday's release of the Conference Board's latest readings on consumer confidence revealed that attitudes about present conditions are at the lowest point in nearly a year. This is coming on the heels of what had been ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today. Confident TradersThe weekly summary of options trading across all U.S. exchanges shows that the smallest of traders are still buying calls to open at a pretty aggressive clip. They spent 39% of their total volume on purchasing speculative call ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.FOMC ReversalStocks are trying to fully reverse any weakness from earlier this week. If SPY closes at a new high for this move, it would be the first time traders pushed it to at least a 100-day high the day following a FOMC meeting since 2014. ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.CautiousAccording to the latest monthly BofA fund manager survey, big money managers are still not showing any optimism toward equities as a general asset class, with only a 3% overweight. It has been declining consistently for the past 2 years and ... [...]

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Breadth Momentum Crests As FX Volatility Plunges

2019-03-19 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth surge has crestedAfter seeing a historic run in the momentum of stocks’ underlying breadth in January and February, indicators are showing diverging trends. That’s to be expected after readings like January’s, and historically these “negative divergences” haven’t been so negative. Over ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this rally-fading day.ExpirationI think we've been looking at this tendency for more than 15 years now, and surely others were before that. After one of the quadruple witching days, especially in March, stocks have struggled for the next week. Not sure ... [...]

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Catching Up

2019-03-11 | Jason Goepfert


I'm taking some time for spring break with our kids, but here are some things that are piquing my interest right now.Nothing has really changed the past few days. We're still seeing mostly mixed equities with the rebound so far today, and a relatively poor risk/reward profile over the ... [...]

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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb

2019-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this mixed day.China ShinesChinese stocks continue their march upward, which bodes well for the longer-term. We saw in previous reports how a 20% rise from a low in the Shanghai Composite had led to more long-term gains when buyers continued to press ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.ReversalPretty nasty-looking outside reversal in indexes and funds like SPY today. But...be careful. These have a terrible habit of not working like chartists insist they should. Following is every time SPY gapped up above the highest close in the ... [...]

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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions

2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.MomentumThe level of breadth momentum across markets, index, and sectors is staggering. It has been so forceful and sustained that the McClellan Summation Indexes for several sectors are nearing multi-decade or all-time extremes. While often a good ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.SlickThe WSJ notes that it's not only stocks enjoying a good start to the year. For oil, it's the best-ever, unless it takes a massive hit today. With a gain through yesterday of more than 25%, it's by far the best YTD return through February since ... [...]

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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ... [...]

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An Industrial-Led Rally As Shanghai Surprises

2019-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


The rally’s workhorsesThe Industrials sector has led all major S&P 500 groups since the December 24 low, while defensive ones like Utilities have lagged.Going back to 1928 and looking at all two-month, 10% rallies from a low, we see that the rallies with the highest sector correlation to our ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.China SurgeYesterday, we looked at a couple of different metrics related to the move in Chinese stocks. With more data becoming available, its importance starts to stand out a little more.Within the approximately 1500 stocks in the Shanghai ... [...]

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No Volatility As Utilities' Breadth Impresses

2019-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


No volatilityVolatility expectations across assets have plunged. The VIX and its related measures for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and bonds is hovering near multi-year or even multi-decade lows.Since 1990, it has been unusual to see the “volatility of everything” collapse at the same time, and it ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-02-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.As noted by Bloomberg, volume in Chinese A-shares spiked on the President Trump's optimistic trade tweets. Unlike most other markets, volume in Chinese shares tends to spike on rallies, not declines. Today's volume was 8 standard deviations above ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-02-22 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Looking through long-term breadth momentum for sectors and indexes, it's remarkable how many are showing a McClellan Summation Index above 1,000.If we use the Backtest Engine, we can see that these extremes are getting to the point that typically ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.The VIX closed under 15 for the first time in months on Wednesday. That has rarely led to further losses over the next several weeks.Ignore the latest date on the tables, it should read “2019-02-15”. The rising volatility didn’t necessarily ... [...]

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A Remarkable Run, As Bulls Return And Dow Stocks Are Above Average

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


A remarkable runBoth the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have enjoyed a near-historic run from their Christmas Eve lows. The magnitude of their gains, interrupted by only a few large daily losses, have been matched only a few times.The sample sizes are tiny, but the implications are mostly positive, ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Gold continues to rally. GLD just put in its best day in over a month while closing at a 9-month high. Lately, that's led to some backing-and-filling over the next couple of sessions, especially in recent years.Not working in gold's favor is ... [...]

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Crossing A Flat 200-Day Average As Optimism Follows The Thrust

2019-02-14 | Jason Goepfert


Jumping over a flat averageThe S&P 500 finally closed above its 200-day average after a couple of months below. Because the decline was not that severe or long-lasting, the average was flat.When the S&P has ended a streak below its 200-day average and that average was flat, its returns were ... [...]

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Sustained Momentum Even As Cumulative Net New Highs Barely Budge

2019-02-12 | Jason Goepfert


Sustained momentumThe McClellan Summation Index continues to power higher, showing impressive and sustained momentum. After being below -500 for at least 10 consecutive days, it is now above +500 for 10 straight, flipping its momentum.When it has been able to maintain a high level after flipping ... [...]

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Cumulative New High / New Low Lagging

2019-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


One of the most popular ways to view the breadth of a market is by watching the Cumulative Advance/Decline Line. And the most popular among the various versions is the one tracking all NYSE securities, or the one using common stocks only. A much lesser-known version of the Cumulative Line uses ... [...]

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Fear Is Slipping As Moving Averages Show Extreme

2019-02-07 | Jason Goepfert


Fear is slippingEven while the S&P 500 remains below its 200-day average, the VIX has slipped to a multi-month low and is well below its long-term average of 20.This has consistently led to trouble over the short- to medium-term as the ebbing of concern showed that investors were too quick to ... [...]

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Good Overbought; Dow Leads Above 200-Day

2019-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


Good overboughtAfter reaching an extreme oversold reading in December, the long-term McClellan Summation Index has cycled back to an overbought reading. What’s notable about this is just how quickly the Summation Index has cycled up to 500 after being so depressed just a month ago. The only time ... [...]

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McClellan Summation Crosses 500

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


With the surge in many breadth-related indicators that we've looked at in reports over the past few weeks, it's no surprise that the long-term McClellan Summation Index has finally made it to its upper threshold level of +500. The originators of the McClellan indexes, especially their son Tom, ... [...]

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Emerging Markets Breakout; Fidelity Managers Beat Cash; Baltic Dry Collapse

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Breaking outEmerging markets have closed above their 200-day average for the first time since last spring, a streak of nearly 9 months. That’s one of the longer streaks in 30 years.Other times an emerging markets index ended long streaks below its ... [...]

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Back To Greed; Low Exposure; Oscillator Streak

2019-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Back to greedThe CNN Fear & Greed model has gone from extreme Fear in December to Greed now.It’s not unusual to see it swing this much, this quickly, but it is unusual when the S&P 500 still hasn’t made it above its 200-day averages. And those ... [...]

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McClellan Oscillator Above 50 For 3 Weeks

2019-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


After dipping close to 50 earlier this week, an improvement in breadth to end the week pushed the McClellan Oscillator higher once again. It has now spent three straight weeks (15 consecutive trading days) above its overbought level of 50.It has been 27 years since it went this long above 50. We ... [...]

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Most Stocks Are Rallying; Put Open Interest Is Rising

2019-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks are rallyingEven though the S&P 500 is nearly 10% below its high, its Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has rebounded so much it’s almost at a new high.That’s a positive divergence, but historically there hasn’t been much positive about it, ... [...]

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The Anti-Hindenburg Omen; Fed Recession Risk Rises

2019-01-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The anti-HindenburgA compelling reason for caution last fall was the kind of split market that triggered a cluster of Hindenburg Omen warning signs. Over the past two weeks, there has been a cluster of signals that are the exact opposite of the ... [...]

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No Bank Failures; Battle Of Time Frames For Moving Averages

2019-01-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As good as it can getLast year, there were no bank failures. That sounds like a good thing, and it’s happened only 3 other times in 85 years. A sample size of 3 makes it difficult to consider the precedents, so if we relax the parameters and look ... [...]

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New Low Decline As An "All-Clear"; Junk Bond Surge

2019-01-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.All is not clearIn December, more than 40% of securities hit a 52-week low. That has since collapsed to fewer than 0.4% of issues, the 2nd fastest and most dramatic reversal in history.If we relax the thresholds, using more than 30% new lows as the ... [...]

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Zweig Breadth Thrust; Strategists vs Analysts

2019-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.TriggeredThis time is different. When we look at the declines and attempted recoveries since the trouble started in October, what has transpired since mid- to late December is markedly different than the ones that failed. This push off the lows has ... [...]

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Breadth Thrust From The Low; Record Stock And Bond Fund Outflows

2019-01-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get me inDuring rally attempts in November and December, one worry was that there were no strong thrusts in breadth. Both failed. During this latest rally, there have been two such days, so strong that there are few historical precedents.Maybe it’s ... [...]

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Newsletters Are Shorting; Breadth Swings; No Highs; Big Outflow; Buying Stampede

2018-12-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get shortyWhile individual investors in the AAII survey became pessimistic a week ago, this week there were more than 50% bears in the survey for the first time in 5 years. That has made a different in other surveys, too. According to one measure ... [...]

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Swift, Severe Decline; Up Volume Thrust; Low TRIN

2018-12-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks just suffered one of the largest, swiftest pullbacks in 70 yearsThe S&P suffered a 17% loss in less than four months.That’s unnerving but is not the kind of decline that happens before or during economic recessions. They are mostly ... [...]

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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


The release of some of the weekly data we follow has confirmed just how extreme last week’s activity moved sentiment. I will be travelling for the holiday, so no end-of-day report will be published.One of the most reliable gauges we have is showing an extreme like we’ve rarely seen. When we ... [...]

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Another Volatile Session

2018-12-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Another volatile sessionSome early optimism on Thursday was quickly erased, and stocks dove to new lows for this move. In the process, it triggered several extremes:* The Nasdaq is on the threshold of a 20% decline.* The percentage of securities ... [...]

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New Low Spike; Heavy Selling Cluster

2018-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


As we head into the close on yet another dreadful day for stocks, along with almost everything else, there are a few things that are worth noting.Most importantly, there is clear evidence of wholesale selling on a level we rarely see. Since 1984, as far back as we can go, there have been only 8 ... [...]

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Equity Risk Premium Collapses; A Day Of Notable Moves; VIX Not Jumping

2018-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Equity premium collapsesThe premium that investors are willing to pay for stocks’ earnings has collapsed relative to the yield available on bonds. The one-year z-score of the Equity Risk Premium is now 4 standard deviations below average, a ... [...]

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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ... [...]

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Long-Term Bears; Russell 2000 Bear Market; S&P Drops On Friday/Monday; Spike In 52-Week Lows

2018-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Long-term bearsBuilding on what we looked at last week, we take a longer-term, multi-year look at prior bear markets, including their median loss and standard deviations. We also look at returns following major peaks in Consumer Confidence.The ... [...]

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Energy Stocks Worst Breadth In 4 Years; Traders Keep Selling The Open

2018-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.At least Financials are worseBreadth in the S&P 500 Energy Sector is the worst in four years. Few of the stocks are above even their shortest-term moving averages, and there has been a spike in the percentage of stocks at a 52-week low.This has, in ... [...]

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New Lows In Financials; Buy-The-Rally Is Dead, Too

2018-12-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Financial troublesMore than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 Financials sector have declined to a 52-week low, the most in more than two years.After investors have sold so many in a single sector to this low of a level, it has tended to bounce. ... [...]

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Financials' New Lows; Bank Loan Pessimism

2018-12-11 | Jason Goepfert


Among all the carnage over the past week, Financials have been among the hardest hit. Despite the attempted reversal on Monday, many of the stocks in this sector either didn't participate, didn't fully reverse, or sunk so far during the morning that they still hit their lowest level in at least ... [...]

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Bonds On Sale; Hedge Fund Exposure; Persistent New Lows

2018-12-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds on saleA popular intermediate-term corporate bond ETF was trading this week at a price (relatively) far below its underlying value.Big discounts on liquid ETFs are rare, and often a good contrary indicator. Over its nearly 10-year history, ... [...]

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Volatility Regime Change; More New Lows

2018-12-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Regime changeStocks have swung more than 1.5 standard deviations on more than half the days during the past two months. That’s a big change from September when it happened only once. When stocks change from a low-volatility regime to a high one, it ... [...]

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Yield Curve Inversion; Intense Selling; November Flows

2018-12-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Upside downThe yields on 2- and 3-year Treasuries are now higher than 5-year maturities, an inversion of the short end of the yield curve.This tends to precede an inversion of the more common 2-year vs 10-year yields. But there has been a long lead ... [...]

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Positive Breadth Divergence; Growth Worries

2018-12-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A positive divergenceWhen the S&P fell to a 6-month low last week, significantly fewer of its individual stocks did so, creating a positive divergence in its Advance/Decline Line.That looks pretty on a chart, but it hasn’t been consistent enough, ... [...]

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Sentiment vs Earnings; Massive Buy Programs

2018-11-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Sentiment vs earningsThe S&P 500’s flat return in 2018 so far has been due to the growth in earnings being offset by a drop in sentiment. The price/earnings ratio for the index has declined about as much as earnings have grown, like 2011.Other ... [...]

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Puts Are Popular; No Sector Funds Are Beating Cash

2018-11-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Puts have become popularSince the market peaked in September, most days have seen at least 10% more put options traded than call options, the largest cluster in three years. Out of a total of 27 days in the sample, the S&P was higher two months ... [...]

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An Almost-Thrust; Bond Boondoggle

2018-11-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An almost-thrustAt the end of October, volume was flowing overwhelmingly into declining stocks, pushing the Up Volume Ratio into oversold territory. That has now changed, and the switch has been aggressive enough to (almost) trigger a traditional ... [...]

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No Capitulation; No Breadth Thrust

2018-11-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No capitulationThe VIX “fear gauge” never really spiked during the October pullback, suggesting no capitulation from investors.That’s not really true, and it doesn’t matter for forward returns. History is riddled with bottoms that weren’t ... [...]

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Massive Sell Programs; Hard, Fast Pullback, Near-Record Negative Momentum

2018-10-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody outDuring the past 3 weeks, we’ve seen a near-record amount of sell programs at some point during the trading day.The lowest NYSE TICK during that stretch is now the 2nd most extreme in history, with an average of more than a net 40% of ... [...]

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Stocks, Sectors In Correction; Nasdaq's Bad Day; S&P Negative YTD; Spike In Pessimism

2018-10-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks in correctionThe S&P still hasn’t suffered a correction, if we define it by a 10% decline from a 52-week high. With the severe loss on Wednesday, it has just barely missed the cut. Most of its stocks haven’t been so fortunate, however. With ... [...]

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Major Reversal; Jump In New Lows; Dumb Money Purge

2018-10-24 | Jason Goepfert


After the big reversal on Tuesday, futures were indicated to gap lower again on Wednesday. In the history of the S&P 500 futures, that had led to rebounds over the next several sessions every time.As it stands now, futures have recovered, which dampens the short-term outlook quite a bit. ... [...]

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Waiting For A Breadth Thrust; Chinese Investors' Long Slog

2018-10-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Waiting for a thrustBreadth recent hit a deep oversold reading, now many are looking for an upside “thrust” that signals a return of buying interest.But waiting for a breath thrust hasn’t worked well in bull markets. Future returns were better, and ... [...]

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Correcting Oversold; Quick Change In Character; Every Dow Stock Rises

2018-10-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correcting oversoldThe McClellan Oscillator has gone from extremely oversold to neutral. It was below -90 just a few days ago and is now up to -10.Such a rapid change in character has been a good sign during uptrends, and that context was important ... [...]

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Rate-Sensitive Divergence With Yields As New Lows Climb

2018-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rate-sensitive divergence warningAs yields rise, the Financial sector is badly underperforming Utilities, which is atypical.Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between rates and the ratio of Financials to Utilities. When a ... [...]

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Momentum Shift As Bonds Have Big Move

2018-10-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum shiftThe McClellan Summation Index is below zero for the first time in a half-year.It’s also turning negative while stocks are still relatively close to their recent highs, and that has been more of a negative shorter-term.Bonds’ biggest ... [...]

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NDX Breaks 50-Day, Breadth Momentum Rolls Over

2018-10-05 | Jason Goepfert


On a quick administrative note, we've now added priority email support for all Premium members (which you are if you're receiving this). Instead of emailing admin, send requests to premium "at" sentimentrader "dot" com and it will automatically go to the top of our priority list.Market-wise, ... [...]

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Dow Ignores Majority, IPO Appetite Wanes

2018-10-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow ignores the majorityThe Dow Industrials have rallied to new highs, but most stocks are in bear markets.More than half of NYSE stocks are below their 200-day averages, a rare disparity on days when the Dow has been at its highest level in a year ... [...]

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Options Bulls Reign As New Lows Rise Even Amid Good Price Momentum

2018-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Calling all bullsOptions traders are showing a historic preference for speculating on the upside. In recent weeks and months, they’ve spent most of their options volume on buying speculative calls.At the same time, they don’t want to risk a large ... [...]

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Breadth Lacks Oomph As Many S&P Stocks Still In Bear Markets

2018-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lacking a little oomphStock indexes have reached record highs, but there isn’t much oomph in the move. The McClellan Oscillator has been negative for nearly 3 weeks, which is a long time given the run to new highs in the S&P. When the index hits a ... [...]

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Dow Theory Buy Signal Even As Homebuilders Slip

2018-09-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow theory buy signalBoth the Dow Industrials and Transports have reached new highs. This is the first new high in the Industrials in months, following the previous breakout from Transports. Similar buy signals according to trend-following theory ... [...]

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Managers Favor U.S. As Market Sees Historic Split

2018-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.There’s no place like homeFund managers are showing a multi-year preference for U.S. stocks. A popular survey from BAML shows that managers are heavily overweight the U.S. versus both emerging market and eurozone stocks. But that hasn’t necessarily ... [...]

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A "Small" Split As Investors Pull Back

2018-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A “small” splitThe Russell 2000 is near its highs, but relatively few of its stocks are trading above their moving averages. There has also been an uptick in its stocks hitting multi-month lows.The only other times this has happened to this degree ... [...]

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Financials Lag As Transports Lead

2018-09-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stalling Financials trigger concernEven as the S&P tickles a new high, Financials have struggled and are the worst-performing major sector over the past six months. The ratio between Financials to the S&P just hit a new 52-week low, which has been ... [...]

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Growth Better Than Unemployment As Warnings Cluster

2018-09-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Growth > unemploymentThe President’s triumphant gaffe about a 100-year high in economic success masked a relatively common signal. When GDP growth was higher than the unemployment rate, stock returns were in line with random, suggesting there was ... [...]

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Small Business Has Never Been Better As Hong Kong Slides Into A Bear

2018-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Never betterSmall business owner optimism is at record highs, surpassing two other periods since 1979.Despite worries about labor, owners have exceptionally high confidence about future conditions. It is backward-looking for stocks, though, and ... [...]

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A Week Of Warnings As Transports Break Out

2018-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A week of warningsEvery day last week triggered a Hindenburg Omen or Titanic Syndrome technical warning signal.While they are much-maligned and not immune to failures, similar clusters of these warning signs preceded consistent weakness across ... [...]

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Record Positive Divergence As We Near An August High

2018-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A near-record positive divergenceThe S&P 500’s Advance/Decline Line is more than 5% above its high from January, showing that even as the index itself has struggled to hit a new high, a majority of stocks in the index have consistently climbed ... [...]

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A Tepid Rally As Coffee And Sugar Sour

2018-08-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A really, really tepid rallyIn the past 90 days, there have been only 3 breadth thrusts, a tepid run as the S&P 500 nears a new high.Rallies with few thrusts did worse going forward than rallies with more of them, but even so the returns were still ... [...]

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Mid And Small Cap Stocks Diverge At Highs As Emerging Market Volatility Soars

2018-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.About those new highsMid and Small Cap indexes are hitting new 52-week highs, leading the Large Cap S&P 500 index as we saw on Tuesday. But fewer of those mid- and small-cap stocks in the indexes are also reaching 52-week highs.Similar divergences ... [...]

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Mid And Small Caps Break Out As Financial Conditions Ease Amid VIX Decline

2018-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Large caps lag mids and smallsThe S&P Mid Cap and Small Cap indexes have hit new 52-week highs this week while the large-cap S&P 500 still has not.The lagging S&P 500 tends to catch up, with all three indexes usually rallying in the months ... [...]

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Dow's Long Correction With Positive S&P Breadth

2018-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The Dow’s long correctionThe Dow has gone 130 days without a new high or 20% loss, one of its longer stretches in purgatory. Other periods when it got stuck in a correction mostly resolved higher, with a choppy 1-2 months generally leading to new ... [...]

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Breadth Divergences Not Much Of A Concern As Staples Recover

2018-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Few highs as indexes rallyThe S&P 500 has rallied close to its prior highs, but there is a divergence. Relatively few stocks are registering 4-, 12-, and 52-week highs as the index rallies.It’s a concern among technicians but has not been a ... [...]

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Leaders Become Laggards As Traders Bet On Volatility

2018-08-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaders become laggardsThe Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 have lost their 50-day averages after months above, a change from June when both were leading the market. Even with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials above their averages, future returns ... [...]

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Risk Appetite Wanes As Small-Caps' Trend Ends And Funds See Outflows

2018-07-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lack of risk appetiteDiscretionary stocks are at a multi-month low relative to defensive Staples.That sign of risk-off behavior is unusual with the S&P near a high but has not been a good excuse to sell stocks.Another trend endedThe small-cap ... [...]

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Momentum Worries As Emerging Stocks Start Uptrending

2018-07-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum worriesAs the S&P hit a 100-day high, a very low % of stocks are showing momentum. An almost record low % of stocks are above their 10-day avg or have an RSI > 70, which has preceded weak shorter-term returns or failed rallies.Emerging ... [...]

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Nasdaq Stocks Lag While Emerging Market Nerves Hit High

2018-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Some lag during latest legThe Nasdaq Composite closed at a 52-week high on Friday but relatively few stocks have come along, with fewer than 60% of members trading above their 50- and 200-day averages.The one-year return in the Nasdaq averaged ... [...]

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Good Growth During Earnings Season As Nasdaq Leads

2018-07-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A great season of earningsEarnings season is expected to bring another quarter of impressive growth.When that growth is high, however, earnings season carries more risk than reward.Tech is leading the chargeThe Nasdaq Composite is leading the four ... [...]

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Breadth Momentum Improves As Equal Weight S&P Lags

2018-07-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An uptick in momentumThe McClellan Oscillator has turned positive after weeks below zero.In a bull market, that has led to good medium-term returns, especially since 1984 when it led to gains over the next 6 months 18 out of 20 times.Don’t forget ... [...]

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World Markets And Platinum Fall As Utilities Streak Higher

2018-06-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.World stocks hit 2018 lowWorld stocks have hit a 200-day low while the S&P 500 is more than 8% above its own 200-day low. Similar setups led to a rebound in World stocks over the next 2-4 weeks.Compared to the S&P, World stocks outperformed every ... [...]

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GE Booted From Dow As Russell And Nasdaq Hit Highs

2018-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Somebody turn on the lightsGE got booted from the DJIA after 100 years, after a similar stretch of poor returns from Alcoa when it was removed…and before it doubled during the next year.Other stocks that got removed from the Dow did fine going ... [...]

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Gold Bugs' Bad Day As Cap-Weighted Indexes Take Over

2018-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gold bugs’ ruined weekendHeading into the weekend, gold futures suffered their largest loss in over a year, to a multi-month low. When it happened it May, the selling marked an exhaustion and gold worked higher. Most times it did something similar, ... [...]

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Euro Death Cross As Down Days Swamp Up Days, Staples Stabilize

2018-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Euro Death CrossFor more than a year, the euro’s 50-day average has been above its 200-day average.That trend has now ended, after one of the longest streaks in the currency’s history. The end to other long streaks led to further weakness in the ... [...]

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Breadth Momentum Picks Up As Value Lags Growth And Homebuilders Turn Up

2018-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is picking upMomentum in breadth figures is returning, with the McClellan Summation Index climbing. When it reaches 500 for the first time in months, it has led to an excellent risk/reward skew for stocks.The S&P 500’s annualized return ... [...]

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Nasdaq Hits New High With Fewer Stocks Coming Along

2018-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Some tech stocks struggle to keep upThe S&P 500 Technology index has hit new highs the past two days, but fewer of its stocks are coming along. In January and March, more than 40% of its members hit 52-week highs, compared to only 15% on ... [...]

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Few S&P Stocks Above Average As Copper Baffles Bulls

2018-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The biggest divergence since 2000As the S&P 500 hits a 50-day high, too few of its members are trading above their short-, medium, and long-term averages. The percentage of stocks trading above their averages is far below what we usually see.The ... [...]

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Big Thrust In Up Volume As Junk Bond Metrics Diverge

2018-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Kind of a thrustWe still haven’t had a “breadth thrust” with more than 90% of NYSE volume flowing into advancing stocks. But Wednesday’s session had the best ratio since November 2016, nearly 400 sessions ago.A big Up Volume figure for the first ... [...]

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Small Caps Lead As Staples Lose Relevance And Energy Can't Lose

2018-05-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The leading indexSmall cap stocks, via the Russell 2000 index, are leading the other major indexes in the race to new highs. It’s the only index that has reached a 52-week high in the past 30 days.Other times it led to new highs, it was an ... [...]

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Breadth Reaches New High As Oil, Stocks Rally Together

2018-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A breakout in breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has made a new all-time high.Since 1940, that has led to a smaller chance of a large decline going forward, and a smaller average drawdown. When the S&P has lagged the A/D Line like now, it ... [...]

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S&P Breaks Out As Tech, Energy Highs Surge And

2018-05-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A broken pattern emboldens bullsThe S&P 500 put in consecutive lower highs since the January peak, but broke that to the upside on Thursday.The initial breakout from a coiled pattern has a high failure rate in the medium-term. Similar breakouts ... [...]

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Small Caps Shine As Financial Conditions Tighten And VIX Drops

2018-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small caps trying to drag us higherThe small-cap Russell 2000 is within 1% of an all-time high, while the S&P 500 is still more than 5% below.That’s usually taken as a universally good sign for stocks in general. It hasn’t been that easy, ... [...]

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Nasdaq Breadth Is (Too) Good As Buyers Finally Persist Intraday

2018-04-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Tech breadth remains impressiveA few major Tech stocks get all the attention, throwing a shadow over all the other members. So far this year, the sector is showing some of the best breadth readings since 1990, with broad participation.Even if there ... [...]

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Consumers Turn Bearish As Dow, Staples Decline

2018-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Consumers are buying…just not stocksThe latest Consumer Confidence survey shows more consumers expect stocks to decline than rally. That’s the first time since the November 2016 election that the U.S. consumer has been bearish on stocks.Other times ... [...]

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Consumer Staples Have Been Historically Unstable

2018-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So much for being a StapleConsumer Staples stocks have taken a big hit over the past couple of days (and weeks). Many of what had been considered safe stocks are down more than 5% in just two days. More than 25% of them are now trading at their ... [...]

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Back Above A Technical Level As Volatility Drops And A/D Line Hits A High

2018-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Indexes reclaim technical levelsAccording to media reports, Tuesday’s jump in the Dow and S&P above their 50-day averages was important. The Dow does tend to have markedly better annualized returns when trading above its average.But as an all-clear ... [...]

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No Thrust As Big Money Pulls Back

2018-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Two weeks and still no thrustStocks have been rallying for a couple of weeks, but there hasn’t yet been a 90% Up Volume day.Forward returns when there has been a 90% day in the first two weeks were excellent, not so much when not. That is a minor ... [...]

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Wall Street Sentiment As Few Fidelity Funds Beat Cash

2018-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An undervalued marketStocks are undervalued, at least according to Wall Street strategists. They expect the S&P 500 to end the year more than 10% above where it is, enough to suggest they think the index is undervalued.When they’ve been so adamant ... [...]

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All Or Nothing As Every Financial And Dow Stock Declines

2018-04-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.All or nothingIn the past 11 sessions, there have been 8 all-or-nothing days, when Up Volume was above 80% or below 20%.Even bear markets rarely see this level of uncertainty. Forward returns had a strong tendency to be positive, especially over ... [...]

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Failed Bounce And Put Purchases

2018-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Failed bounceBefore some modest after buying interest, the most important index in the world triggered a failed bounce.That’s one of the most feared patterns for bulls because it shows a complete lack of buying interest. The S&P did suffer ... [...]

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Gold Miners Lag As Investment Managers Sell

2018-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Miners’ minor monthsGold mining stocks have underperformed gold prices by more than 10% over the past couple of months.Due to their higher volatility, this is considered a negative for gold prices going forward. There is some modest truth to this, ... [...]

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Neutral Investors, With Soaring Small-Caps And Dow Theory Warning

2018-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mom and pop just shrugIndividual investors have become neutral to one of the most extreme degrees in the past 15 years.That’s usually a good sign in a bull market, especially longer-term. It’s also been a good sign that there are more bears than ... [...]

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Lopsided Volume Swings As MLPs Suffer Pessimism

2018-03-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody out, then in, then out againDuring the past month, volume has been gyrating wildly between losing, winning, then losing securities. A 3-day average of the Up Volume Ratio keeps swinging from one extreme to the other.During uptrending ... [...]

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A "Good" Correction As Silver Specs Give Up

2018-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good vs bad correctionsIn these first two weeks following the Dow’s drop into a correction, it has followed the path of many “good” corrections. Those are times when the Dow fell 10% from a high, then no more than a further 7% during the next ... [...]

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Correlations Go Back To Normal Without A Breadth Thrust

2018-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correlations go back to normalAs stocks sold off, correlations between sectors rose as they usually do and are back at a normal level. That has reversed a period when correlations were almost at the lowest level in history, eclipsed only by the ... [...]

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Best Recovery Ever As Investors Flee Bonds

2018-02-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Best recovery everAfter falling into a correction a week ago, the Dow Industrials index has rallied every day and added 5.6%. That ranks among its best-ever recoveries after falling more than 10% below its high for the first time in months.Other ... [...]

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Panic And Reverse

2018-02-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Panic and reverseStocks suffered a panic day on Monday, then reversed early losses to close higher. That matches several other instances that led to consistent returns going forward.There was volatile back-and-forth then another run at the prior ... [...]

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Cornucopia Of Extremes

2018-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


With the rapid moves and number of extremes, there are quite a few things that stick out beyond what we went over in the report on Monday. These are what we posted to the private Twitter feed, which you have access to if you're receiving this Note via email. Just request to follow ... [...]

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Breadth Gets Oversold As Consumer Confidence Rises

2018-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Oversold alreadyAt least one primary breadth indicator is showing that recent selling pressure is extreme. It’s rare to see the McClellan Oscillator this stretched to the downside just a few days after an all-time high in the S&P.Similar readings ... [...]

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Fund Managers Ignore Cash As Streaks End

2018-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fund managers still hate cashMutual fund managers are holding a near-record low amount of cash according to the latest figures. That was easier to justify when interest rates were nearly zero but gets harder as rates rise.Their cash deficit is now ... [...]

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Options Traders Pour Into Calls As Breadth Lags

2018-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Forget stock, call options have more oomphRetail traders have returned in a big way. We saw on Friday the surge in brokerage transactions, and that has bled over into the options market. The smallest of options traders put on a skyrocketing number ... [...]

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Record Gaps As Investors Pour In

2018-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Green every morningStocks have been gapping up in the morning almost every day. During the past 30 sessions, more than 85% of them have seen the futures open higher than the prior close.That is – by far – the most since futures began trading in ... [...]

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Dollar Ignores Rates As S&P Shows Exhaustion

2018-01-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ignoring the rise in ratesDespite a steady rise in interest rates, the U.S. dollar has declined more than 10% over the past year.That’s unusual, especially given the magnitude of the fall in the dollar and the rise in rates. The other times it ... [...]

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Doubling Up Moving Average As S&P Members Get Overbought

2018-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Doubling up the averagesThe S&P is 3% above its short-term moving average, 6% above its medium-term and 13% above its long-term.It hasn’t managed to “double up” its gains above each successive moving average in 20 years. Similar bouts of momentum ... [...]

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Gapping Up And Nasdaq New Highs

2018-01-24 | Jason Goepfert


The remarkable run in stocks is set to continue this morning, with the futures indicated to gap up again this morning.In yesterday's report, we took a look at the 3-week rise in the S&P, totaling more than 6% as of Monday's close. And, of course, it also reached a new 52-week (and all-time) ... [...]

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Burst Of New Highs As Optimism Hits 30-Year High

2018-01-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A rare burst of new highsMost of the major indexes and sectors had more than 25% of their stocks hit a 52-week high on Tuesday. Only Staples and Utilities saw fewer than 10% of their stocks hit a new high. On average across indexes and sectors, 27% ... [...]

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Gap Up While Bears Scatter And New Highs Jump

2018-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


For those who don’t follow the premium Twitter account, which you have access to if you’re receiving this message, following are some of the studies and indicators that were posted today. If you’d like to follow the Twitter account, please request to follow @SenTrader_Prem on Twitter then send ... [...]

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The S&P's Momentum Streak Aided By Industrials

2018-01-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The S&P’s consistent, rapid rallyThe most important index in the world has rallied consistently for the past 1, 3, and 6 months. It has also picked up its gains, nearing or exceeding its upper Bollinger Band on daily, weekly, and monthly time ... [...]

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Seasonality, Utilities, and Junk

2017-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


For those who don’t follow the premium Twitter account, which you have access to if you’re receiving this message, following are some of the studies and indicators that have been posted over the last couple of days. If you’d like to follow the Twitter account, please request to follow ... [...]

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Market Oddities And Nikkei Reversal

2017-11-09 | Jason Goepfert


For those who don't follow the premium Twitter account, which you have access to if you're receiving this message, following are some of the studies and indicators that have been posted over the last couple of days. If you'd like to follow the Twitter account, please request to follow ... [...]

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Financials Trying To Emerge From Oversold

2017-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


Over the past few months, financials have gotten hit hard. During the past week, fewer than 20% of members in the sector were trading above their 50-day moving averages, a deeply oversold reading, especially during the past 8 years of this bull market.That weakness has pushed Financials to be ... [...]

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The Dow's Dominant Stock

2017-07-31 | Jason Goepfert


As mentioned last week, we've started a private Twitter feed for premium subscribers, and so if you're reading this post as it's published, you have access to that feed at @SenTrader_Prem. Just request to follow that account on Twitter and send us an email at admin "at" sentimentrader.com to ... [...]

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Another Jump In New Lows

2017-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


The oddities continue to pile up.In the Report on Wednesday, we looked at times when declining volume outpaced advancing volume for almost two weeks, while stocks gained during that time. Very rare.In late May, we looked at times when many stocks within the S&P 500 index reached a 52-week high, ... [...]

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New Lows Among The S&P

2017-05-26 | Jason Goepfert


In the Report on Thursday, we took a look at the oddly low amount of volume flowing into securities on the NYSE for a day the S&P 500 rallied to a new high.One of the issues with using NYSE breadth is that it's impacted by issues that have nothing to do with the S&P 500 itself.But even within ... [...]

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Materials, Info Tech New High Surge

2017-01-26 | Jason Goepfert


Among the major S&P 500 sectors, the two biggest winners so far year-to-date have been materials and information technology. Both have gained upwards of 5% already in 2017.The push to multi-year highs in those sectors have been accompanied by a surge in their component stocks trading at 4-week, ... [...]

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Stocks Struggle To Match The S&P

2017-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


Don Quixote: Dost not see? A monstrous giant of infamous repute whom I intend to encounter.Sancho Panza: It's a windmill.Don Quixote: A giant. Canst thou not see the four great arms whirling at his back?Sancho Panza: A giant?Don Quixote: Exactly. Pointing out any weakness lately has been an ... [...]

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Nasdaq's Bad Breadth, Too

2017-01-07 | Jason Goepfert


This morning, respected technician Helene Meisler made an observation on breadth that was notable:https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/817737481663709184That reinforces what we discussed in the report on Friday about the weak breadth not necessarily being isolated to ravages in the bond ... [...]

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Breadth Thrust In Euro Stocks

2017-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


With the big rally in major stocks in the eurozone (at least in euro terms), the most impressive breadth readings in the world have now been recorded in those stocks.Looking at an array of indicators across time frames, we can see that there has been a huge block of buying interest in the stocks ... [...]

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Surge In Financials At 52-Week Highs

2016-12-09 | Jason Goepfert


One of the most notable developments in stocks in recent days has been the surge in the number of stocks reaching 52-week highs. As noted in Thursday's report, across the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges, we're seeing one of the largest breakouts in 30 years.That's often a good sign long-term, but ... [...]

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All Four Major Indexes At New Highs

2016-11-22 | Jason Goepfert


I'm not really in the office this week, but we had quite a few questions about the simultaneous new highs in all of the major indexes on Monday. Buyers are following through on their normal pre-holiday binge, and managed to close the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and ... [...]

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ETF and Sector Indicators at an Extreme - Sept 30 2016

2016-09-30 | Eric D. Brown


Currently, there are 5 ETF Sector and Breadth indicators at an Optimistic Extremes and 14 Stock indicators at Pessimistic Extremes.The tables below display stock market indicators that are at Very Optimistic, Extremely Optimistic, Very Pessimistic or Extremely Pessimistic levels. Note: These ... [...]

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Utilities Have Been (Too) Strong

2016-07-07 | Jason Goepfert


In Wednesday's Report, there was a note about the high number of utilities stocks that reached a 52-week high recently. At more than 80% of components in the S&P 500 utilities sector, it is the most since 1990 except for December 26, 2014. Utilities formed a peak shortly thereafter.The run in ... [...]

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Almost Every Member Of The Dow Is Rising

2016-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


With a surge in stocks on Tuesday, breadth figures are impressive. In the Dow, the only negative member today is Boeing.If it sticks into the close, this will be the first time since early April that at least 29 members of the Dow rose together. This is coming on the heels of what had been a ... [...]

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Utilities Average Is Stretched

2016-05-05 | Jason Goepfert


With utility sector stocks doing so well, it's no surprise that most members of the Dow Jones Utility Average are trading above their moving averages. The rally has been swift and sustained enough that more than 95% of the stocks in the index are now trading above their 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-day ... [...]

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Bad Breadth On A Good Day

2016-04-14 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth is not good today, despite most of the major indexes pushing to new 90-day highs.On the NYSE, the Up Issues Ratio is at 43%, one of the worst figures in 50 years on a day the S&P 500 closed at a 90-day high. There is still some time in the session, but even if the S&P closes modestly ... [...]

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Up Volume Going For 3 In A Row Above 80%

2016-02-17 | Jason Goepfert


There is still a few hours to go in today's session, but buyers are working on a third straight day of impressive pressure.Friday, Tuesday and today (so far) have all seen more than 80% of volume on the NYSE flowing into stocks that are positive on the day.From the intraday charts:The last time ... [...]

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Italian Stocks Are The Worst Of The Worst

2016-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


As bad as U.S. markets have been, traders could be excused for thinking, "At least we're not in Italy."The latest breadth figures are out, and it's about as ugly as it gets in Italian stocks. Across all major U.S. sectors and broad foreign markets, nothing is as beaten down as Italian ... [...]

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Shanghai Breadth Nears Record For Selling Persistence

2016-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


The selling pressure in Chinese shares has been relentless in January and shows no signs of letting up as the Shanghai Composite dives to yet another yearly low.There is not a consistent relationship between that index and U.S. stocks. It's a fascination among many market-watchers but share ... [...]

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Breadth Flush Pt 2 - New Lows

2016-01-20 | Jason Goepfert


The breadth flush today is getting more notable.If the figures stand as they currently are into the close, then since 1940, only October 19, 1987 and August 8, 2011 will have seen more lopsided Up Volume over 1-day and 10-day periods.New lows are climbing continually higher and it will not ... [...]

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Breadth Flush

2016-01-20 | Jason Goepfert


Markets are now entering "puke" territory, at least in terms of market breadth.There have been over 1,228 securities on the NYSE that traded to a 52-week low, and it is rising rapidly. It reached 1,342 on August 24 and is getting close to 40% of all issues, a rarely-achieved level.Even more ... [...]

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Selling Off After We're Already Oversold

2016-01-13 | Jason Goepfert


Whenever stocks are oversold and start to sell off even more, then it is a truism that we'll hear the cliche:Markets crash when they're oversoldIt happened on Black Monday in 1987, so...sure, it happens. Anything can and does happen in the markets. But is it a good bet?Selling short a market ... [...]

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