Post-Thanksgiving Bump
Futures are currently indicating a gap up open for the S&P 500.
Returns on the Monday following the holiday have been lackluster, especially when there was a gap up open.
Table 1 shows returns for SPY when it gapped up by any amount on the open on Monday following Thanksgiving. From the open to close, it gained ground twice and lost ground six times, with a negatively skewed reward-to-risk ratio.
Table 2 shows returns for the rest of the week (from Monday's close through Friday's close). Results were much better. Extending it out a couple more days led to yet another winner.
Seasonality is always iffy, especially in the stock market, but for what it's worth, it suggests a modest headwind for intraday gains today, but that doesn't last the rest of the week.