Backtesting The Smart And Dumb Money

With the newest version of the Backtest Engine that Eric created, now we can see how almost any indicator we cover has impacted market performance going forward, including when that market was in a bull or bear market.

This updated Engine allows users to change the markets tested and whether they're above or below various moving averages.

The video below walks through a couple of tests using the spread between Smart and Dumb Money Confidence. We think it's a great tool and hope it's useful to you!

The post titled Backtesting The Smart And Dumb Money was originally published as on on 2017-10-10.

At, our service is not focused on market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence. Learn more about our service , research, models and indicators.

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