sentimenTrader Blog


2017-01-04 | Jason Goepfert

With the big rally in major stocks in the eurozone (at least in euro terms), the most impressive breadth readings in the world have now been recorded in those stocks.

Looking at an array of indicators across time frames, we can see that there has been a huge block of buying interest in the

This post is available to sentimenTrader members only.

Please login to to view this content.

Don't have an account?

Sign up to get RISK-FREE access to all of our indicators, models, commentary and award-winning research.

If you've never tried the service before, then there is no charge for the first 30 days. Then pay as little as $1.59 per trading day for access to our award-winning research. There are three convenient billing options: $39/month, $109/quarter or $399/year.


2017-01-03 | Jason Goepfert

In the report on Thursday, we took a look at other times that stocks sunk to a two-week low in the last sessions of the year. The sample size was woefully small, but almost every one of those times, stocks rallied to start the New Year. Looks like that's going to continue.

The S&P 500 i

This post is available to sentimenTrader members only.

Please login to to view this content.

Don't have an account?

Sign up to get RISK-FREE access to all of our indicators, models, commentary and award-winning research.

If you've never tried the service before, then there is no charge for the first 30 days. Then pay as little as $1.59 per trading day for access to our award-winning research. There are three convenient billing options: $39/month, $109/quarter or $399/year.


2016-12-29 | Eric D. Brown

Currently, there are 17 Stock indicators at Pessimistic Extremes and 40 Stock indicators at Optimistic Extremes.

The tables below display stock market indicators that are at Very Optimistic, Extremely Optimistic, Very Pessimistic or Extremely Pessimistic levels. Note: These tables contain only indicators from the Stocks section of the site. For the tables below, you can click through to each chart by clicking on the Chart name.

Pessimistic Extremes

ChartLast CloseLast UpdateSentiment
STEM.MR Model

27.0

2016-12-28

SPY Optix

20.0

2016-12-28

OEX Put/Call Ratio

57.0

2016-12-28

Large Trader Call Buying

27.0

2016-12-23

NYSE Up Volume Ratio

20.0

2016-12-28

NASDAQ Up Volume Ratio

18.0

2016-12-28

S&P 500 Down Pressure

97.0581

2016-12-28

NASDAQ 100 Down Pressure

98.0665

2016-12-28

S&P 500 Price Oscillator

33.0

2016-12-28

Number of IPOs

2.0

2016-11-30

Penny Stock Share Volume

241039000.0

2016-11-30

Penny Stock Dollar Volume

34009900.0

2016-11-30

Mutual Fund Flow (with ETFs)

-21600.0

2016-12-21

Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)

-19900.0

2016-12-21

Rydex Europe Assets

5.0

2016-12-28

Rydex Japan Assets

1.5

2016-12-28

Short-Term Risk Levels

4.0

2016-12-28

Optimistic Extremes

ChartLast CloseLast UpdateSentiment
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread

-48.0

2016-12-28

AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)

93.0

2016-12-23

% Showing Excess Optimism

38.0

2016-12-28

VIX

12.95

2016-12-28

Equity Hedging Index

15.3

2016-12-23

Risk Appetite Index

87.0

2016-12-27

Equities as % of GDP

0.79

2016-09-30

Speculators Combo

81.0

2016-12-20

NASDAQ 100 Combo Hedgers Position

-16472400000.0

2016-12-20

DJIA Hedgers Position

-30777.0

2016-12-20

DJIA Mini Hedgers Position

-61554.0

2016-12-20

DJIA Combo Hedgers Position

-12295200000.0

2016-12-20

Russell 2000 Mini Hedgers Position

-101521.0

2016-12-20

Odd Lot Purchase Percentage

67.5175

2016-12-27

Odd Lot Short Sales

21.108

2016-12-27

NAAIM Exposure Index

101.3

2016-12-21

Mutual Fund Cash Level

3.2

2016-10-31

Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio

4.04

2016-10-31

Retail Money Market Ratio

2.92

2016-11-14

NYSE Available Cash

-197961.0

2016-11-30

Penny Stock Transaction Volume

18805.0

2016-11-30

Rydex Bearish Flow

-34.0

2016-12-28

Rydex Ratio

81.0

2016-12-28

Rydex Money Market %

16.0

2016-12-28

Rydex Total Bear Assets

137.6

2016-12-28

Rydex Total Bull / Bear Ratio

10.9

2016-12-28

Rydex Banking Assets

67.4

2016-12-28

Rydex Biotechnology Assets

284.0

2016-12-28

Rydex Consumer Products Assets

327.8

2016-12-28

Rydex Financial Services Assets

56.3

2016-12-28

Rydex Leisure Assets

48.3

2016-12-28

Rydex Technology Assets

65.6

2016-12-28

Smart Money Confidence

27.0

2016-12-28

Dumb Money Confidence

75.0

2016-12-28

Conference Board - Stocks

23.2

2016-12-30

% Showing Excess Optimism-Pessimism Spread

0.25

2016-12-28

IWM Open Interest Ratio

3.4624

2016-12-28

Fund Flow - ETF Total

7772.0

2016-12-21

Medium-Term Risk Levels

7.0

2016-12-28

Rydex Total Leveraged Bear Assets

52.0

2016-12-28


2016-12-20 | Eric D. Brown

Currently, there are 9 Stock indicators at Pessimistic Extremes and 44 Stock indicators at Optimistic Extremes.

The tables below display stock market indicators that are at Very Optimistic, Extremely Optimistic, Very Pessimistic or Extremely Pessimistic levels. Note: These tables contain only indicators from the Stocks section of the site. For the tables below, you can click through to each chart by clicking on the Chart name.

Pessimistic Extremes

ChartLast CloseLast UpdateSentiment
STEM.MR NASDAQ Model

30.0

2016-12-19

Number of IPOs

2.0

2016-11-30

Penny Stock Share Volume

241039000.0

2016-11-30

Penny Stock Dollar Volume

34009900.0

2016-11-30

Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)

-11100.0

2016-12-14

Rydex Energy Services Assets

38.4

2016-12-19

Rydex Europe Assets

5.5

2016-12-19

Volatility ETF Fund Flow

-0.073

2016-12-16

Fund Flow - Mutual Fund Domestic

-8761.0

2016-12-07

Optimistic Extremes

ChartLast CloseLast UpdateSentiment
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread

-42.0

2016-12-19

AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)

95.0

2016-12-16

VIX

11.71

2016-12-19

VIX Term Structure

0.76

2016-12-19

NYSE High/Low Ratio

83.0

2016-12-19

Risk Appetite Index

81.0

2016-12-15

Equities as % of GDP

0.79

2016-09-30

NASDAQ 100 Combo Hedgers Position

-17639600000.0

2016-12-13

DJIA Hedgers Position

-26828.0

2016-12-13

DJIA Mini Hedgers Position

-53657.0

2016-12-13

DJIA Combo Hedgers Position

-10683700000.0

2016-12-13

Russell 2000 Mini Hedgers Position

-58449.0

2016-12-13

Odd Lot Purchase Percentage

66.1718

2016-12-16

NAAIM Exposure Index

96.2

2016-12-14

Mutual Fund Cash Level

3.2

2016-10-31

Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio

4.04

2016-10-31

Retail Money Market Ratio

2.92

2016-11-14

NYSE Available Cash

-182190.0

2016-10-31

Penny Stock Transaction Volume

18805.0

2016-11-30

Rydex Bearish Flow

-24.0

2016-12-19

Rydex Ratio

76.0

2016-12-19

Rydex Beta Chase Index

7.3

2016-12-19

Rydex Money Market %

18.0

2016-12-19

Rydex Bull/Bear RSI Spread

99.0

2016-12-19

Rydex Total Bear Assets

141.0

2016-12-19

Rydex Total Bull / Bear Ratio

10.0

2016-12-19

Rydex Banking Assets

64.2

2016-12-19

Rydex Biotechnology Assets

293.5

2016-12-19

Rydex Consumer Products Assets

343.1

2016-12-19

Rydex Financial Services Assets

61.8

2016-12-19

Rydex Japan Assets

27.8

2016-12-19

Rydex Leisure Assets

47.5

2016-12-19

Rydex Transportion Assets

66.4

2016-12-19

Dumb Money Confidence

75.0

2016-12-19

Analyst Price Changes

77.0

2016-12-16

% Showing Excess Optimism-Pessimism Spread

0.29

2016-12-19

S&P 500 Buying Climaxes

62.0

2016-12-16

SPY Open Interest Ratio

2.4144

2016-12-19

IWM Open Interest Ratio

3.0453

2016-12-19

Fund Flow - ETF Total

12723.0

2016-12-07

Fund Flow - ETF Domestic

11715.0

2016-12-07

Short-Term Risk Levels

6.0

2016-12-19

Medium-Term Risk Levels

7.0

2016-12-19

Rydex Total Leveraged Bear Assets

53.2

2016-12-19


2016-12-19 | Eric D. Brown

Over the weekend, we added the following features to the site:

  • Added new Social Sentiment indicators. The new indicators are "Bearish Percent" and "Bullish Percent" for each of the active ETF's that we track.
  • Changed Social Sentiment indicators to allow different indexes and secondary indicators to be drawn.
  • Added the Russell 2000 Index to the Index Seasonality Chart.
  • Users now have the ability to add a moving average for the Index on charts. To add an Index Moving Average, select any moving average from the "Index Moving Average" drop-down menu on the chart page. These moving averages can be saved into your favorite configurations just like any other selection.

As always, you can find out about new additions / changes by visiting the "What's New" page.

Social Sentiment Changes

Social Sentiment is sentiment derived from performing automated natural language processing on messages collected from Twitter. Messages that mention a symbol (SPY for example) are collected and analyzed and given a rating of 'bullish', 'bearish' or 'neutral' (some messages are also categorized as 'spam'). From these messages, the percentage of bullish messages and bearish messages are then calculated (based on the total number of messages).

For each of the active ETF's on social media that we track, Social Percent Bearish and Social Percent Bullish are provided on the Social Sentiment listing page. A sample of the SPY Social Percent Bullish is below.

[caption id="attachment_1071" align="aligncenter" width="650"]SPY Social Percent Bullish Figure 1: SPY Social Percent Bullish[/caption]

Social Sentiment Listing & Chart Changes

We made it easier to 'filter' the social sentiment listing by setting up the appropriate filters and categories. Like all other listing tables you can now filter the table by "Index", "Commodity", "Bond", "Country" and "Sector".

Additionally, we added the ability to view secondary indicators and different indexes to Social Sentiment indicators.

Russell 2000 added to Index Seasonality

Due to an oversight on our part, the Russell 2000 was not included in the Index Seasonality Chart. It has been added now. Along with SPX, DJIA and COMP, you can select "RUT" in the index dropdown to view the monthly seasonality by day of month.

Index Moving Averages

[caption id="attachment_1069" align="aligncenter" width="650"]Moving Averages on Indexes Figure 2: Moving Averages on Indexes[/caption]

One of the requested features for the site has been the ability to add a moving average to the Index panel of charts. This has now been added as a feature to our charts.

To add a moving average to an Index, use the 'Index Moving Average' dropdown menu located next to the "Indicator Moving Average" menu below the charts.

 


2016-12-17 | Jason Goepfert

Among the weekly indicators that have been updated through Friday, one of them stuck out after the numbers were finalized - the number of buying climaxes among S&P 500 stocks spiked to the highest level since Janua

This post is available to sentimenTrader members only.

Please login to to view this content.

Don't have an account?

Sign up to get RISK-FREE access to all of our indicators, models, commentary and award-winning research.

If you've never tried the service before, then there is no charge for the first 30 days. Then pay as little as $1.59 per trading day for access to our award-winning research. There are three convenient billing options: $39/month, $109/quarter or $399/year.


2016-12-15 | Jason Goepfert

In yesterday's report, we noted that index ETFs had seen a sudden surge. Both SPY and DIA took in the most money of the year. On Wednesday, QQQ joined that list with a $1.7 billion inflow.

The usual caveat is that fund flows are n

This post is available to sentimenTrader members only.

Please login to to view this content.

Don't have an account?

Sign up to get RISK-FREE access to all of our indicators, models, commentary and award-winning research.

If you've never tried the service before, then there is no charge for the first 30 days. Then pay as little as $1.59 per trading day for access to our award-winning research. There are three convenient billing options: $39/month, $109/quarter or $399/year.


2016-12-13 | Jason Goepfert

As traders enter into the pre-FOMC bullish malaise that has set in for years, stocks are drifting higher ahead of the open. It has become de rigueur to simply buy and hold for a day or two ahead of the pronouncement on interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which will happen tomorrow afternoon.

This post is available to sentimenTrader members only.

Please login to to view this content.

Don't have an account?

Sign up to get RISK-FREE access to all of our indicators, models, commentary and award-winning research.

If you've never tried the service before, then there is no charge for the first 30 days. Then pay as little as $1.59 per trading day for access to our award-winning research. There are three convenient billing options: $39/month, $109/quarter or $399/year.


2016-12-12 | Eric D. Brown

Over the weekend, we rolled out some new features on the site (the announcements of "what's new" can always be found here).

S&P 1500 Stock Screens

For about the last year, the daily report has had a section that provided Long & Short ideas for the S&P 1500 stocks that we have on the site.  This section of the report has been recreated as 'screens' on the site.

You can find the screens under Stocks -> Screens.

Defitions of these screens are:

To get a handle on which stocks are showing an unusual amount of optimism or pessimism, we can look at their current Optimism Index relative to their average over the past year. A stock showing extreme pessimism relative to its average will have a highly negative z-score. A stock with unusual optimism will have a highly positive z-score. As with all screens, this is only a starting point. Some of the stocks have a short history. Some are in the midst of merger talks. Some are on the cusp of a new long-term trend. Stocks shaded in gray were not on the prior day's list.

See the November 15, 2015 report for more background on this screen.

You can view the screens at:

New indicators

For the most active ETF's, we have added Shares Outstanding as an indicator. The description of this indicator is:

The shares outstanding shows, in millions, how many units have been created to meet demand from investors. The number of shares rise as demand increases and participants need to meet that demand by creating new units. It is extremely important to note, however, that "demand" does not necessarily mean "buying". If there is a lot of demand for shares from short sellers, then the number of shares could rise as well. So you can see the number of shares outstanding rise even as a fund falls and vice-versa. Usually, if there is a very sharp increase or decrease in the number of shares over a short time period, it's a sign of extreme short-term demand and is best used as a contrary indicator.

You can find a list of the Most Active ETF's Shares Outstanding here.

Additionally, you can add Shares Outstanding to fund flow charts as a secondary indicator.  For example, if you are viewing the TLT Fund Flow chart, you can add the TLT Outstanding Shares indicator as a secondary indicator.

[caption id="attachment_1048" align="aligncenter" width="649"]TLT Fund Flow with Shares Oustanding Figure 1: TLT Fund Flow with Shares Oustanding[/caption]

 

 


2016-12-09 | Jason Goepfert

One of the most notable developments in stocks in recent days has been the surge in the number of stocks reaching 52-week highs. As noted in Thursday's report, across the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges, we're seeing one of the largest breakouts in 30 years.

That's often a good sign long-term, bu

This post is available to sentimenTrader members only.

Please login to to view this content.

Don't have an account?

Sign up to get RISK-FREE access to all of our indicators, models, commentary and award-winning research.

If you've never tried the service before, then there is no charge for the first 30 days. Then pay as little as $1.59 per trading day for access to our award-winning research. There are three convenient billing options: $39/month, $109/quarter or $399/year.


← previous page · next page →