SentimenTrader Blog - Page 123

2017-12-29 | Jason Goepfert | Public

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mining momentumThe Metals & Mining industry is in the midst of a historic run. Over the past 30 days, it has enjoyed a cluster of up days seen only 4 other times since 1990.Each of the others led to short-term weakness.Gas powered rallyNatural gas has jumped more than 10% off its low from a few days ago. It behaved in a similar way in 2015, each of which was a “false” move. Historically, if buyers persisted over the next two weeks, it was a ...


2017-12-28 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Metal and mining stocks have had an impressive cluster of up days, with 22 out of 30 positive sessions; Natural gas has rallied more than 10% in a few days from a six-month low; Margin debt rose again

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2017-12-28 | Jason Goepfert | Public

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Trouble signs from the options marketTraders in VIX options appear to be betting on a spike, and they’re usually right. The few other times the options market was set up like this, volatility spiked.Meanwhile, traders in SPY options have been busy bidding up call options, and they’re usually wrong. That’s a worrisome combination that suggest limited upside for stocks.Energy’s about-faceThis summer, sentiment on the energy sector was at an ...


2017-12-27 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Volatility traders seem to be betting on a spike within the next 3 months according to the volatility of put vs call options, and SPY call buyers have been more aggressive than put buyers; Energy stocks have rallied so much that breadth within the S&P 500 Energy Sector is among the best in the past five years

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2017-12-27 | Jason Goepfert | Public

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A tale of two spreadsThe spread for investment-grade bonds has dropped to a new low, while high-yield spreads remain above their lows, suggesting some hesitation among bond investors to embrace the highest-risk issuers.That divergence has led to some short-term weakness in stocks, but only one major decline. Other markets were mixed with no clear pattern.Bitcoin recoveryBitcoin just ended a 5-day losing streak, tied for its longest when coming ...


2017-12-26 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The spread on investment grade bonds has declined to a new low while the spread on lower-quality, higher-risk high-yield (junk) bonds has remained above its low, a divergence that has been an inconsistent warning sign; Bitcoin ended its 5-day losing streak from a new high; Hedgers are long ag contracts to a record degree

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2017-12-22 | Jason Goepfert | Public

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Don’t sleep or you’ll miss itSo far in December, the stock market’s gains have come overnight, with regular trading hours showing a net loss. That is unlike what we’ve seen for most of this year. The Smart Money Index looks at early-morning versus the rest of the day, and it is falling dramatically.Divergences like this have led to weakness in the medium-term.Upgrade maniaWall Street analysts are having trouble keeping up with rising stock ...


2017-12-21 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

All of the S&P 500's gains over the past few weeks have come overnight, and the morning enthusiasm has caused the Smart Money Index to drop hard and form a negative divergence; Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly increasing price targets on S&P 500 stocks; SPY has closed in the bottom 25% of its range for 3 days; The Santa window is positive

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2017-12-21 | Jason Goepfert | Public

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So much for a safe havenEven as stocks have wobbled, bonds have sold off hard for three straight days and yields are at a 6-month high. Similar moves led to consistent declines in yields going forward, but that’s because of the long-term bear market and cluster of readings in recent years. It was generally a good medium-term sign for stocks, especially REITs and Financials.Leveraged speculationTraders in the Rydex family of mutual funds are ...


2017-12-20 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The yield on 10-year Treasury Notes has jumped more than one percentage point for the past three days, to a 6-month high, which has led to lower yields and positive stocks, especially REITs and Financials; Leveraged assets in long ETFs and Rydex mutual funds have reached a record high versus leveraged inverse (short) assets

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