SentimenTrader Blog - Page 2


2020-09-18 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Sentiment across the world is subsiding as various stock markets pull back. Canada Optix's 10 day moving average has fallen to the lowest level in almost half a year, ending a long streak of elevated sentiment.When this happened in the past, the S&P/TSX Composite's future returns were mixed:Across the Pacific, Australia Optix is also no longer elevated for the first time since this post-pandemic bull market began.When this happened in the past, Australian equities usually pulled back over ...

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2020-09-18 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

A few days ago I looked at the potential for value to outperform growth. As Bloomberg noted, this month so far has seen the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperform the market cap-weighted S&P 500 by the most in over a decade. This signals a potential reversal in relative performance. Perhaps the era of a few large tech stocks lifting broad indices is coming to an end:Historical cases in which the market cap / equal weighted ratio dropped -3% in a month usually led to more S&P 500 equal weighted ...

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2020-09-17 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Buying among smart money corporate insiders spiked during the spring. It moderated since then, especially in technology stocks. Lately, buying interest has dropped off and the 4-week Velocity of the Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped well into negative territory.

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2020-09-17 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Buying among smart money corporate insiders spiked during the spring. It moderated since then, especially in technology stocks. Lately, buying interest has dropped off and the 4-week Velocity of the Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped well into negative territory.

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2020-09-17 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

The latest monthly survey of fund managers from BofA shows that they are overweight tech stocks...and so is everyone else.

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2020-09-17 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Transportation stocks are recovering as the U.S. economy improves. The Dow Jones Transportation Average made an intraday all-time high after crashing in March:When Dow Transports cycled from bear market territory to an ATH, transportation stocks usually lost ground over the next 1-3 months:As for the broad S&P 500, this led to mixed results over the next few weeks and months:

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2020-09-17 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

The German economy continues to recover, with ZEW Germany Expectation of Economic Growth rising to the highest level in almost 2 decades:Such strong investor sentiment towards economic expectations led to more gains for German equities in the last 3 cases. But before that (in 1994), this led to extreme choppiness over the next year:As for the S&P 500, this led to more gains over the next year:

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2020-09-16 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Fund managers polled by BofA suggest that tech stocks are the most crowded trade in markets right now. Not only that, they're crowded to a record degree. But a look at the history of these most-crowded trades shows that the managers had only modest success at top-ticking the assets.

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2020-09-16 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Fund managers polled by BofA suggest that tech stocks are the most crowded trade in markets right now. Not only that, they're crowded to a record degree. But a look at the history of these most-crowded trades shows that the managers had only modest success at top-ticking the assets.

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2020-09-16 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

For the first time in nearly 6 months, there was a big positive thrust in Up Volume on the Nasdaq exchange.

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