Sentiment across the world is subsiding as various stock markets pull back. Canada Optix's 10 day moving average has fallen to the lowest level in almost half a year, ending a long streak of elevated sentiment.When this happened in the past, the S&P/TSX Composite's future returns were mixed:Across the Pacific, Australia Optix is also no longer elevated for the first time since this post-pandemic bull market began.When this happened in the past, Australian equities usually pulled back over ...Signup / Login to read this post
A few days ago I looked at the potential for value to outperform growth. As Bloomberg noted, this month so far has seen the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperform the market cap-weighted S&P 500 by the most in over a decade. This signals a potential reversal in relative performance. Perhaps the era of a few large tech stocks lifting broad indices is coming to an end:Historical cases in which the market cap / equal weighted ratio dropped -3% in a month usually led to more S&P 500 equal weighted ...
Buying among smart money corporate insiders spiked during the spring. It moderated since then, especially in technology stocks. Lately, buying interest has dropped off and the 4-week Velocity of the Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped well into negative territory.
Buying among smart money corporate insiders spiked during the spring. It moderated since then, especially in technology stocks. Lately, buying interest has dropped off and the 4-week Velocity of the Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped well into negative territory.
The latest monthly survey of fund managers from BofA shows that they are overweight tech stocks...and so is everyone else.
Transportation stocks are recovering as the U.S. economy improves. The Dow Jones Transportation Average made an intraday all-time high after crashing in March:When Dow Transports cycled from bear market territory to an ATH, transportation stocks usually lost ground over the next 1-3 months:As for the broad S&P 500, this led to mixed results over the next few weeks and months:
The German economy continues to recover, with ZEW Germany Expectation of Economic Growth rising to the highest level in almost 2 decades:Such strong investor sentiment towards economic expectations led to more gains for German equities in the last 3 cases. But before that (in 1994), this led to extreme choppiness over the next year:As for the S&P 500, this led to more gains over the next year:
Fund managers polled by BofA suggest that tech stocks are the most crowded trade in markets right now. Not only that, they're crowded to a record degree. But a look at the history of these most-crowded trades shows that the managers had only modest success at top-ticking the assets.
Fund managers polled by BofA suggest that tech stocks are the most crowded trade in markets right now. Not only that, they're crowded to a record degree. But a look at the history of these most-crowded trades shows that the managers had only modest success at top-ticking the assets.
For the first time in nearly 6 months, there was a big positive thrust in Up Volume on the Nasdaq exchange.
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