SentimenTrader Blog - Page 2


2019-06-20 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

Here's what's piquing my interest as traders ramp up stocks prior to the open.Post-Meeting GapIn apparent reaction to yesterday's FOMC decision and statement, traders are bidding up the futures. This is quite a change from a few weeks ago when two out of every three days opened with a gap down.There has been a modest tendency for these pre-market gains to stick over the next 2-3 days, not so much the next 2 weeks.Some of the larger gains came when markets were stressed and traders reacted to ...

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2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The Dow Industrials are essentially unchanged from 350 days ago, with minimal upside and substantial downside, with a handful of precedents; The S&P 500 is within 1% of its old high, and we look at other times it approached a high with similar sector leaders and laggards; The index is likely to close at a high within a week; Everything rallied on FOMC day

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2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

Here's what's piquing my interest on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Everything RalliesTuesday provided some interesting cross-currents, allowing assets to rise that normally provide some balance to each other. It was a bad day to be short pretty much anything - stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, oil, whatever. They all rose, and by more than a little.There is some risk that activity like this is bubblicious, especially with stocks so close to their highs. But it hasn't been that much of a worry. ...

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2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Rush for the exitThe latest BofAML survey of fund managers showed one of the largest monthly declines in exposure in 20 years. That seems like it should be a contrary indicator, but has been decidedly not, with consistent declines in the months ahead and almost no rallies, which contrarians would expect. That is starkly different following months when managers aggressively increased their exposure.But exposure is now so low, it’s harder to rely on it as a negative.Third time’s the charmThe ...

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2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The latest BofAML survey of fund managers showed a near-record plunge in managers' equity allocations; The Dow is trying to claw back from at least a 5% pullback for the 3rd time in 9 months; Up Volume has been above 75% for 3 days since the low; Stocks jumped in anticipation of the FOMC meeting

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2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert | Study

As noted by the Wall Street Journal, prior to today, the S&P 500 hadn't moved more than 0.5% for 6 straight sessions. What’s especially notable about this streak is that the calm is occurring after a storm of buying pressure. In the prior week, the S&P had enjoyed a surge of more than 5% during only a week’s timeSee the June 17, 2019 report for more detail.

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2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert | Study

Typically, when we see more than 20% of stocks at new highs, fewer than 20% of the other stocks in the index are doing so badly that they’re in bear markets, roughly defined as being at least 20% off their highs. Yet this time around, more than 40% of stocks in the S&P are in bear markets.Split markets can be dangerous, as we saw at the end of 2017, but this is specific to the S&P 500 so far, and has been a positive sign over the longer-term. See the June 17, 2019 report for more detail.

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2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks jump on the latest hopeful headlines.Fund Manager PanicWe've already seen evidence that individuals have reached near-panic conditions over the past few weeks. They took out a massive number of hedges, they've said they're near a record level of pessimism during a relatively health market with breadth at a new high, and they've  pushed heavily into bonds and defensive sectors. Even hedge fund managers haven't been immune. Now there is some evidence ...

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2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Split indexWith the recent surge in stocks, more than 20% of them in the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high. But the percentage of stocks mired in a bear market, or at least 20% off their highs, hasn’t come down by much.This leaves a split index, with a lot of stocks at either a new high, or in bear market territory. Split markets can highlight dangerous market conditions, like we saw near the end of 2017. The broader the split, the more dangerous they tend to be, though, and so far we’re not seeing ...

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2019-06-17 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

More than 20% of stocks within the S&P 500 were recently at a 52-week high, but more than 20% were also mired in a bear market, more than 20% off their peaks, an unusual split; After surging more than 5% in a week, stocks have had a tiny range for 6 days; A new model has been posted to the site

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