What:  We will remain Neutral for now.

Why:  The exceptionally overbought readings in some of our shortest-term guides, including the STEM.MR Models, took hold again as stocks weren't able to follow-through on the gains of the past couple of days.  The Nasdaq 100 was relatively stronger, which was enough to push its Cumulative TICK back into overbought territory.  With the weakness we're already seeing this morning, resistance and overbought readings have been met with selling pressure, which adds to the idea that we're not quite out of the woods on an intermediate-term basis.  Additional weakness, given what we went over yesterday, would also suggest that at a minimum, we'll likely make a fresh multi-month low before a longer-term rally takes hold.  For now, with this indicated gap down, I don't see much of a short-term edge, particularly was we head into the Payroll report tomorrow morning.  An extreme reaction to that may set up a "fade" trade, but we'll have to take that as it comes.

What:  We will remain Neutral for now.

Why:  On January 8th, the Dumb Money Confidence hit 75%, and nearly every time we've seen that kind of extreme in the past 15 years, any further short-term strength (over 2-4 weeks) was reversed longer-term (over 1-3 months).  Now that that's happened again, we're getting conflicting studies about whether the price action over the past two weeks is a sign of a larger trend change.  We don't have an overwhelming number of signs that we have seen a major market peak, and several sentiment measures have turned very quickly from where they were a couple of weeks ago.  Given the recent multi-month low and double 1% up days, how the S&P performs in the short-term should give us a good clue as to whether we've already likely seen another lasting bottom, per the study discussed in Wednesday's Report.