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2010 Report Archive

 

JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC

 

 

 

December

 

12/31/10......SPY Liquidity Premium is near a high; S&P has one of the tightest six-day ranges in history

 

12/30/10......Pension fund asset allocations show a slight increase in stocks; AAII bulls continue to show extremes

 

12/29/10......[Data Brief] The S&P will last four months above its 50-day average, an historic sign of excellent momentum

 

12/29/10......The S&P forms a four-day range so tight it has rarely been matched

 

12/28/10......Commercial hedgers in the Nasdaq 100 drop to a new record net short position; Rydex traders near a new high

 

12/27/10......The smallest of options traders spent less than 15% of their volume on protective puts last week

 

12/23/10......[Data Brief] Individual investor bulls in the AAII survey surge to a five-year high

 

12/23/10......The CS Fear Barometer hits a high as the VIX hits a low; the Smart Money Index drops to a one-year low

 

12/22/10......S&P 500 has another unfilled gap; the Seasonality Index is positive

 

12/21/10......Smart/Dumb Confidence hits -50%; Rydex traders greatly favor growth; overbought breadth

 

12/20/10......Weekly VIX drops below its Bollinger Band; S&P 500 breadth is negatively diverging

 

12/17/10......Equity Hedging Index hits a record low; active investment managers are confidently bullish

 

12/16/10......NYSE Margin Debt minus Free Credits shows low "net worth"; Insiders continue their selling

 

12/15/10......Up Volume is overbought, but Up Issues are not; ISE Call/Put ratio hits new highs

 

12/14/10......Breadth (such as the Cumulative TICK) is horrible, despite new highs in the indexes

 

12/13/10......[Data Brief] The S&P is making new highs, but breadth is lagging badly

 

12/13/10......The ROBO and LOBO Put/Call Ratios show extremely bullish option sentiment

 

12/12/10......[Data Brief] The Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence spread is at an extreme level

 

12/10/10......Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull Ratio and the Rydex "All Index" Bull Ratio

 

12/09/10......Equity put/call ratio; STEM.MR Model; Arms Index (aka TRIN); AAII Bull Ratio

 

12/08/10......Our Indicators At Extremes is showing more than 30% at a bearish extreme

 

12/07/10......Mutual fund cash is at a deficit; OTC volume (i.e. penny stocks) is not rising much

 

12/06/10......Options Speculation Index is still high; NDX Down Pressure is now overbought

 

12/03/10......Active investment managers remain extremely bullish

 

12/02/10......[Data Brief] A 90% Up Volume Day followed by more upside tends to bode well going forward

 

12/02/10......ISE Call/Put Ratio; OEX P/C Ratio; AAII sentiment survey; InsiderScore.com Buy/Sell Ratio

 

12/01/10......[Data Brief] Large unfilled opening gaps tend to get filled and lead to mediocre performance

 

12/01/10......OEX options traders; oversold Down Pressure for the NDX

 

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November

 

11/30/10......Rydex sector fund update; "Best six months" when September/October were very mild

 

11/29/10......Small options traders reduce hedging; S&P 100 (OEX) put option volume spikes relative to calls

 

11/24/10......When the market drops hard right before a holiday, the day immediately before it tends to rise

 

11/23/10......S&P 100 (OEX) put trading is spiking higher

 

11/22/10......Pre-holiday seasonality is generally bullish...but not without risk

 

11/19/10......Quick drop in AAII bulls from a high level; seasonality from here to the end of the year

 

11/18/10......A spike in new 52-week lows near a high; largest IPOs in history; I.I. bulls jump long after a major low

 

11/17/10......The S&P 500 crossed below its 20-day average for the first time in more than 50 days

 

11/16/10......Large speculators are at a record high net long position in Crude Oil

 

11/15/10......Equity Hedging Index shows few are protected against decline; S&P 500 buying exhaustions rise

 

11/12/10......Rydex inverse assets and inverse ETF volume are extremely low; Rydex Precious Metals assets surge

 

11/11/10......Corporate insiders are selling at a torrid pace; AAII bulls hit a 5-year high

 

11/10/10......What happens when we get a reversal bar after a gap up and new high

 

11/09/10......The S&P 500 has enjoyed three straight closes outside its Bollinger Band

 

11/08/10......The Barron's Confidence Index shows that bond investors are just as confident as equity investors

 

11/05/10......NYSE new highs have reached 18% of all issues; what happens when the S&P has an unfilled gap at a high

 

11/04/10......Historical volatility has dropped to an extremely low level; the CSFB shows institutions have slowed hedging

 

11/03/10......The Barron's Big Money poll shows investors are bullish on stocks and oil, bearish on the Dollar and bonds

 

11/02/10......S&P 100 (OEX) options traders are apparently extremely bullish

 

11/01/10......Volatility is exceptionally low; options traders are as bullish as any time in a decade

 

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October

 

10/29/10......The Stock/Bond Ratio hits its highest extreme in six months

 

10/28/10......Individual investor bears in the AAII poll dropped to the lowest level in three years

 

10/27/10......Seasonality ahead of the midterm elections has been very positive since 1922

 

10/26/10......The S&P has gone 38 days without closing more than 0.5% below its 10-day average

 

10/25/10......New highs on the NYSE have dropped precipitously; Rydex traders jump into the NDX

 

10/22/10......Copper is doing very well, but it doesn't have a good leading edge for stock prices

 

10/21/10......The correlation between the S&P and Dollar has reached historic proportions

 

10/20/10......The TICK hit one of its lowest levels in a decade; Rydex traders still love the NDX

 

10/19/10......Pension funds are fleeing stocks, and when they do it's good for stocks long-term

 

10/18/10......Small options traders are too enthusiastic; the divergence between banks and the S&P

 

10/15/10......The Composite Model has hit a rare extreme, which usually results in a correction

 

10/14/10......The Fed's POMO operations have seemingly had a positive impact on the 1-month returns in stocks

 

10/13/10......The ISE Call/Put Ratio hits an extreme; NDX performance after Intel earnings

 

10/12/10......The VIX formed an "island" below its lower Bollinger Band, usually a consistent sell signal for stocks

 

10/11/10......S&P performance when the VIX hits a low during early October; why the NDX looks bearish

 

10/08/10......Rydex traders love the NDX; S&P during earnings when trading at a high

 

10/07/10......Gold Bugs are doing well; individuals are using Bonds as a safe haven

 

10/06/10......90% of S&P stocks are > 50-day avg; the Economic Reaction Score

 

10/05/10......The best time to trade the Fidelity Select indicator

 

10/04/10......"Smart money" Nasdaq 100 hedgers are very short; Q4 earnings season

 

10/01/10......The stock market has rallied while breadth corrected from overbought

 

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September

 

09/30/10......95% of Fidelity Select funds have beaten the return on cash

 

09/29/10......The Nasdaq 100 has 7 unfilled upside gaps during the last 18 days

 

09/28/10......Hindenburg Omen failures; unchanged issues and extreme breadth

 

09/27/10......Small options traders are not buying into the rally

 

09/24/10......Looking at the S&P 500's "failed" breakout, 3 down days after a new high

 

09/23/10......Surge in Internet assets pushes Rydex technology holdings higher

 

09/22/10......Too much call buying on ISE exchange; Cotton traders are too bullish

 

09/21/10......Stock, bond, commodity, etc. performance after NBER peaks and troughs

 

09/20/10......Nasdaq Arms index gives a poor "sell" signal; speculators long CRB Index

 

09/17/10......Mutual funds suffer three straight outflows despite market gains

 

09/16/10......AAII Bulls hit a three-year high in optimism

 

09/15/10......The CSFB Fear Barometer is showing underlying concern

 

09/09/10......Individual investor bulls snap back; Trading ranges after a major rally

 

09/08/10......A VIX sell signal triggers again

 

09/07/10......Small options traders not too optimistic; Nasdaq 100 futures traders are

 

09/03/10......Equity mutual fund flows near an extreme; Good starts to a new month

 

09/02/10......Buying pressure leads to an extremely low Arms Index reading

 

09/01/10......Newsletter writers have given up; September seasonality

 

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August

 

08/31/10......Back-to-back opposite extremes in the NYSE Up Volume Ratio

 

08/30/10......"Smart money" Nasdaq 100 futures traders are bullish

 

08/26/10......AAII bulls are near a five-year low; a look at bond market sentiment

 

08/25/10......Bullish opinion on "fear trade" currencies (Franc and Yen) has spiked

 

08/24/10......Rydex traders are fleeing the leveraged long index funds

 

08/23/10......The Hindenburg Omen's record with Gold, Dollar, commodities, bonds

 

08/20/10......Investors flee equity funds (especially ETFs); the Hindenburg confirmed

 

08/19/10......Corporate insiders are starting to buy; Equity call buyers step up

 

08/18/10......S&P 500 performance during earnings off-seasons during recessions

 

08/17/10......Short-term signals continue to point to higher prices

 

08/16/10......Large speculators in commodities have become extremely net long

 

08/13/10......A look at the Hindenburg Omen and its historical usefulness

 

08/12/10......The Arms Index (aka TRIN) spiked to an unusually high level

 

08/11/10......Stocks and bonds can rally together...and most often do

 

08/10/10......Rydex indicators are starting to enter overbought territory

 

08/09/10......Speculative penny stock volume has stagnated despite a market rally

 

08/06/10......A look at typical reactions to the payroll report

 

08/05/10......AAII bulls drop hard despite an up week in the market

 

08/04/10......What happens when the "death cross" gets reversed within three months

 

08/03/10......The advance/decline line made a new high while the S&P did not

 

08/02/10......A big one-day drop in Rydex Precious Metals assets, and bump in p/c ratio

 

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July

 

07/30/10......Mutual fund cash levels jumped 8% in June, a big increase

 

07/29/10......Rydex Utilities assets soar, as do the other defensive sectors at Rydex

 

07/28/10......July was the best month of the year so far...its record as a harbinger

 

07/27/10......The McClellan Oscillator has reached excessively overbought territory

 

07/26/10......Small traders are buying some of the fewest calls since the bull began

 

07/23/10......The 4-week AAII Ratio has dropped to an extreme (for a bull market)

 

07/22/10......Wall Street strategists moved to a one-year high in stocks as they fell

 

07/21/10......Sentiment on the Japanese Yen is overly optimistic...a positive for the S&P

 

07/20/10......With a choppy market and conflicting extremes, there isn't much edge

 

07/19/10......Extremely low Up Volume after a rally has been short-term bullish

 

07/16/10......A new all-time high NYSE TICK means short-term buying exhaustion

 

07/15/10......Newsletter writers become more bearish; AAII Bull Ratio jumps

 

07/14/10......NYSE Up Volume has shifted from oversold to overbought; Intel gaps

 

07/13/10......Intel earnings as a bellwether when stocks are not near a price extreme

 

07/12/10......S&P Down Pressure near an 8-year extreme low

 

07/09/10......Upside follow-through from a multi-month low

 

07/08/10......Arms Index thrust; AAII pessimism; OTC volume drop

 

07/07/10......Testing the Head & Shoulders pattern; daily Price Oscillator; Rydex traders

 

07/06/10......Almost no Fidelity Select funds have beaten the return on cash

 

07/02/10......The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day avg is extremely low

 

07/01/10......The AAII survey of individual investors drops to a notable extreme

 

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June

 

06/30/10......The Baltic Dry Index as a predictor; the S&P's imminent "death cross"

 

06/29/10......What happens when there's excessive pessimism heading into earnings

 

06/28/10......NDX vs. breadth; weekly bearish engulfing pattern; small option traders

 

06/25/10......Determining if the 150-day moving average is a good measure of trend

 

06/24/10......Looking at the 10-week / 30-week moving average crossover in the S&P

 

06/23/10......What happens when the Arms Index has spiked prior to other FOMC days

 

06/22/10......Monday's price reversal isn't a good predictor; FOMC-day biases

 

06/21/10......China's currency change caused knee-jerk moves similar to last time

 

06/18/10......The McClellan Oscillator has gone from deeply oversold to overbought

 

06/17/10......Bears in the AAII survey have dropped huge despite a tepid stock rally

 

06/16/10......We've now seen five 90% Up Volume days in the past month

 

06/15/10......The market's stuck in a range and our indicators are mostly neutral

 

06/14/10......The ROBO Put/Call Ratio shows small traders betting on the downside

 

06/11/10......The Arms Index hit a historically low level, coming soon after a high one

 

06/10/10......Assets in the inverse S&P fund at Rydex is very high, bull/bear ratio is low

 

06/09/10......A divergence between the SPX vs. NDX and RUT; US Dollar sentiment

 

06/08/10......Nasdaq Arms Index closes above 3 for two days in a row

 

06/07/10......Over-The-Counter volume drops after the May crash

 

06/04/10......One-month changes in AAII allocations; first double up days in a month

 

06/03/10......Up Volume surges, but volatility makes it less useful; AAII allocations

 

06/02/10......Double 1% down days may be bullish, but it's not a huge edge

 

06/01/10......Mutual fund cash levels tick higher; money market assets dip

 

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May

 

05/28/10......Thrust in Up Issues and Up Volume is bullish; big outflow in equity funds

 

05/27/10......The ADX indicator says end of downtrend is near; AAII; Memorial Day

 

05/26/10......What the Smart Money Index says about early strength, late weakness

 

05/25/10......Dumb Money Confidence drops to a notable level of pessimism

 

05/24/10......Price reversals, Rydex traders and small options traders

 

05/21/10......First close below 200-day average; Int-term Score, other extremes

 

05/20/10......Recapping a few of the extremes we're seeing today

 

05/20/10......Inverse ETF volume surges; AAII bulls aren't phased by market decline

 

05/19/10......We take a look at earnings off-season following very bad earnings seasons

 

05/18/10......Yale's Buy-On-Dips Confidence shows a big gulf between pros and joes

 

05/17/10......Multiple days with an Up Issues Ratio under 10% during the past month

 

05/14/10......Mutual funds start to see big outflows; Rydex sectors vs. Precious Metals

 

05/13/10......Why the 62% retracement of prior "crashes" has been an important level

 

05/12/10......Rydex traders have abandoned the sector funds; I.I. bullishness drops

 

05/11/10......Breadth thrusts; large gaps up after making a multi-month low

 

05/10/10......A historic McClellan Oscillator reading; erasing two months' worth of gains

 

05/07/10......We take a look at other "shock days" and how the market acted afterward

 

05/06/10......AAII asset allocation shows little change; insider selling hits extreme again

 

05/05/10......What happens when selling pressure starts to ebb

 

05/05/10......The latest release from Investor's Intelligence shows an uptick in bulls

 

05/05/10......Penny stock volume increases; a look at Rydex sector assets

 

05/04/10......Watching for a violation of 1180 support on the S&P

 

05/03/10......Buying climaxes reach a 14-year high; small options traders still bullish

 

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April

 

04/30/10......Big price flip-flops; mutual fund cash levels drop to new record low

 

04/29/10......AAII bulls rise despite a down market; post-FOMC performance

 

04/28/10......Another largest loss in two months; surge in Rydex Nasdaq speculation

 

04/27/10......Total put/call ratio; Rydex Bull Ratio; NYSE New Highs; NYSE Arms Index

 

04/26/10......Barron's Big Money likes stocks, hates T-Bonds and Cash

 

04/23/10......Huge momentum - 31 up days over the past two months

 

04/22/10......Looking at the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day average

 

04/21/10......Historical market reactions to gaps up after Apple earnings reports

 

04/20/10......Apple carries a huge weight in the NDX, and options traders are bullish

 

04/19/10......Small options traders are extremely bullish; large one-day declines

 

04/16/10......The Intermediate-term Indicator Score gives a rare reading

 

04/15/10......We're seeing too many extremes to mention today, but go over a handful

 

04/14/10......The VIX gives a sell signal; how Intel trades after its earnings reports

 

04/13/10......Rydex Banking assets become extreme; Intel earnings as a bellwether

 

04/12/10......The S&P's streak without a 1% down day; options speculation nears high

 

04/09/10......Another look at junk bond issuance; seasonality during tax season

 

04/08/10......When the S&P is at a high into earnings season, it's hard to sustain

 

04/07/10......Smart/Dumb Money Confidence at multi-year extreme; OTC volume rises

 

04/06/10......Put/Call Ratios have reached historical extremes; Rydex sector assets too

 

04/05/10......Active investment managers are extremely long, as are large call buyers

 

04/01/10......The CSFB Fear Barometer is throwing off a very unusual reading

 

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March

 

03/31/10......Quarter-end seasonality belies the "window dressing" theme

 

03/30/10......Junk bond issuance hits a record; Equity put/call ratio enjoys a rare streak

 

03/29/10......Small options traders lack protection; NDX "smart money" turns bearish

 

03/26/10......Why the S&P 500 intraday reversal isn't necessarily a sign of a top

 

03/25/10......Rydex Nasdaq Bull/Bear Ratio spikes higher; AAII "wall of worry"

 

03/24/10......More than 80% of Rydex sector funds are enjoying above-average assets

 

03/22/10......A temporary end to the momentum; ROBO put/call ratio; Crude Oil

 

03/19/10......Investment managers jump on board the rally; so do Rydex traders

 

03/18/10......New highs surge to 20% of total issues; Dumb Money rises above 70%

 

03/17/10......S&P has gone 15 days w/o a 0.25% loss; put/call ratios suggest a pause

 

03/16/10......The VIX is at an 80% premium to historical volatility; FOMC days intraday

 

03/15/10......Options Speculation Index surges to the highest level since spring of 2000

 

03/12/10......Up Volume is historically overbought; STEM.MR oversold in an up market

 

03/11/10......S&P 500 is up for 9 straight days; Beta Chases suggests a rest for risk

 

03/10/10......Put/call ratios hit a one-day extreme; British Pound sentiment is terrible

 

03/09/10......Looking at the one-year change in mutual fund cash levels

 

03/08/10......The small-cap Russell 2000 index has been up 16 out of 18 days

 

03/05/10......Rydex traders go huge into inverse funds; Payroll report tendencies

 

03/04/10......Insider selling in the NDX; AAII bearish %; Rydex Value vs. Growth

 

03/03/10......The VIX has dropped 14 out of 15 days...that's a new all-time record

 

03/02/10......When the advance/decline line hits a new high and the S&P 500 doesn't

 

03/01/10......Consumer Confidence plunges; small traders reduce speculative buying

 

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February

 

02/26/10......Individual investors are the most neutral in four years; equity p/c ratio

 

02/25/10......What happens when the Russell 2000 breaks a 9-day up streak

 

02/24/10......Rydex Enthusiasm Index and pessimistic sentiment on the Swiss Franc

 

02/23/10......A look at Fed Chairmans' Humphrey Hawkins testimony

 

02/22/10......Extreme short-term momentum after oversold readings is inconclusive

 

02/19/10......What happens in stocks, bonds and commodities after first rate hike

 

02/18/10......The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 10- and 50-day averages

 

02/17/10......A spike in short-term overbought readings usually leads to a lapse

 

02/16/10......Small options traders and investment managers decrease their bullishness

 

02/12/10......Penny stock volume shows no sign of excessive speculation

 

02/11/10......Investor's Intelligence correction % may be more "smart" money than not

 

02/10/10......Rydex breadth indicator has reached oversold

 

02/09/10......Rydex sector assets; performance around Humphrey Hawkins testimony

 

02/08/10......Small options traders still not grabbing protection; S&P reversal days

 

02/05/10......Looking at failures of double 1% up days from a low

 

02/04/10......What happens when the S&P drops 2% ahead of Nonfarm Payroll report

 

02/04/10......Individual investors have reduced their equity exposure in favor of bonds

 

02/03/10......Short-term follow-through from the 1% up days is a key tell

 

02/02/10......Why consecutive 1% up days after a low doesn't always mean a bottom

 

02/02/10......Yesterday's bounce would mark an unlikely bottom

 

02/01/10......A surge in the Intermediate-term Score; oversold McClellan; Wheat futures

 

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January

 

01/29/10......The VIX / S&P divergence is an inconsistent predictor

 

01/28/10......Individual investors turning more neutral; seasonal pattern is changing

 

01/27/10......Newsletter writer optimism shows one of its biggest drops in decades

 

01/27/10......Rydex traders fleeing to the safest funds; Lumber begins a new uptrend

 

01/26/10......The Cumulative TICK dropped to its lowest level in 10 months

 

01/25/10......How the market performs surrounding State Of The Union speeches

 

01/25/10......An extreme in the Short-term Score; quick, large declines from a 52-wk hi

 

01/22/10......Consecutive 10% jumps in the VIX tends to lead to short-term bounces

 

01/22/10......Rydex traders have quickly abandoned the Precious Metals fund

 

01/21/10......A "top spotter" table shows we have few conditions seen at major peaks

 

01/20/10......We take a look at the divergence in a couple of OEX options indicators

 

01/19/10......Small options traders continue to disregard protective puts, but buy calls

 

01/15/10......Intel earnings reports tend to precede multi-week corrections

 

01/14/10......Market performance during earnings season when sentiment is optimistic

 

01/13/10......A VIX sell signal; Rydex traders hit speculative extreme

 

01/12/10......Inverse ETF volume remains extremely low; earnings season predictor

 

01/11/10......Last week traders bought more calls, and less puts, since 2000.

 

01/08/10......The Equity Put/Call Ratio signals caution

 

01/07/10......Individual investors' allocation to stocks surges, and to cash craters

 

01/06/10......Rydex traders go (very) long the NDX; a look at gold sentiment

 

01/05/10......We take a look at each months' ability to predict the next 11 months

 

01/05/10......A look at Rydex sector assets; hedgers are extremely net long the Euro

 

01/04/10......The Rydex Beta Chase Index has spiked to a multi-month high

 

 

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