sentimenTrader archives 2006

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2006 Report Archive

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

December

12/29/06......We're short-term oversold heading into the New Year

12/28/06......Overbought in an uptrend calls for choppy conditions ahead

12/27/06......Our short-term model is the most stretched since 2004

12/26/06......Holiday trading should bring an overbought extreme this week

12/22/06......For the first time since July, indices did not rally from oversold

12/21/06......Another test of uptrend as NDX is oversold and on support

12/20/06......Tight, listless trading likely to become the norm this week

12/19/06......A morning gap to support gives bulls a perfect short-term setup

12/18/06......Typical post-expiration weakness triggers oversold signals

12/15/06......Gaps up on an expiration day make for a good short-term fade

12/14/06......A break to new highs should give us a rare "trend day"

12/13/06......Short-term range leaves a muddled mess with no clear edge

12/12/06......Watch for volatile, non-directional moves after Fed decision

12/11/06......S&P forming an intraday coil within a weekly range

12/08/06......Watching for increased volatility with extreme model readings

12/07/06......History of key reversal days suggests short-term downside

12/06/06......Our indicators are correcting without a change in price

12/05/06......Still dubious about the long side after yesterday's model extreme

12/04/06......STEM.MR model once again cycles into overbought territory

12/01/06......Peak in momentum, but buyers still coming after oversold dips

November

11/30/06......Our short-term guides have reached a momentum extreme

11/29/06......Corporate insiders sales have been swamping purchases

11/28/06......No confirmation yet that this pullback is going to be different

11/27/06......Today's trading triggered several outstanding readings

11/21/06......Small range typically means trouble after holiday

11/20/06......Looking for more choppy action with volume starting to drop

11/17/06......Commitments of Traders data becomes even more negative

11/16/06......Short- and intermediate-term extremes suggest dubious gains

11/15/06......Short-term model extremes suggest chop ahead

11/14/06......Short-term oversold leads to yet another new high

11/13/06......Expected weakness not to be, indices now forming bull flags

11/10/06......Reversal pattern and peak in momentum in the NDX

11/09/06......Cautious of a failed breakout due to signs of fading momentum

11/08/06......Down Pressure in the NDX has reached an overbought extreme

11/07/06......Peak in momentum means short-term rallies should falter

11/06/06......The indices showed classic trend-day behavior from the open

11/03/06......1700 NDX still a battleground; Big commercial short in futures

11/02/06......Given several factors, 1700 on the NDX should hold for now

11/01/06......Naz becoming short-term oversold - good test of uptrend

October

10/31/06......We're oversold...in an uptrend...with hyper-positive seasonality

10/30/06......Positive seasonals and oversold STEM.MR suggest back off shorts

10/28/06......Large speculators have pushed their short bets against the Yen and Precious Metals to an extreme

10/27/06......The failed breakout of RUT and NDX signal potential trouble

10/26/06......Watching for a failed breakout as short-term guides hit extremes

10/25/06......Should see a tight range prior to Fed, then 2-3 whipsaws

10/24/06......Expecting a tight range ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting

10/23/06......Tight range breakouts carry for a bit, but reversals are common

10/20/06......Commercial traders in index futures; Tight 2-day S&P range

10/19/06......Cumulative TICK remains stretched, but 1700 still strong on NDX

10/18/06......Overbought New NH/NL ratio; Failed SMH breakout

10/17/06......11 "up" closes in S&P futures; NYSE TRIN

10/16/06......Trend days; Smart Money Confidence

10/13/06......VIX under 11; Stock / Bond Ratio; STEM.MR Model overbought

10/12/06......Short-term looks OK to chase breakout

10/11/06......5-day range in the S&P is tightest in past decade; Jump in I.I.

10/10/06......Measured moves; Tight range in S&P

10/09/06......"Barbell" seasonality in October; Traders not buying into the rally

10/06/06......Commercial traders in index futures; AMG fund flows

10/05/06......Historic extreme in STEM.MR model; Oct. return after up Sept.

10/04/06......Overbought extreme in STEM.MR model; Skewed put/call ratio

10/03/06......Unusually divided opinion among traders

10/02/06......"Air pocket" hits after unusual price action

10/01/06......Traders have been betting heavily against small-cap stocks

September

09/29/06......3-day range in the S&P; Waning momentum in semiconductors

09/28/06......Big jump in AAII bullishness, but still little reason to try to short

09/27/06......Overbought STEM.MR model; SPX/NDX divergence

09/26/06......Forced action gives impression of prices pulled up by a string

09/25/06......Small spec position bullish for market, should see buying interest

09/02/06......A review of our indicators concludes that the short-term looks dicey, but the intermediate-term should be OK

August

08/02/06......Our Liquidity Premium is drying up, showing a lack of broad- market concern short-term

July

07/16/06......The 1994 template is on track; a move to new lows in the Naz Composite might actually be a good thing

07/14/06

07/13/06

07/12/06

07/11/06......We have seen a rare TICK cluster which typically lead to a rising market

June

06/29/06......Two 10-to-1 up volume days in the past two weeks after seeing an oversold market has been bullish historically

06/13/06......Rydex traders have abandoned technology; The number of Fidelity Select funds beating cash has dropped to 0%

06/13/06

06/12/06

06/09/06

06/08/06......"Hammer bars" are not good predictors of a low; Liquidity Premium is at a point that has preceded lows

May

05/27/06......Implied volatility has dropped by 25%; Small specs are once again at their net longest

05/20/06......NDX momentum thrusts suggests a bounce, then retest; Small specs in index futures at their longest in a year

05/19/06

05/18/06

05/17/06

05/16/06......New lows on the NYSE expanding to more than 5% of all issues within a week of the DJIA at new highs

05/16/06

05/15/06

05/12/06

05/11/06......The risk of an intermediate-term decline has not dissipated much

April

04/29/06......Mutual fund inflows are extreme; A look at how various indexes perform after the Fed stops raising rates

04/20/06......Volume in penny stocks has exploded higher

04/20/06

04/19/06

04/18/06......Extreme breadth flip-flops and across-the-board large up days have often lead to future weakness

04/11/06......A broad review of our indicators shows likely short-term stabilization ahead

04/04/06......Extremely tight ranges in the S&P 500 have most often lead to a "false" initial breakout

04/04/06

04/03/06

04/02/06......Previous 10% declines in the Utilities average have caused problems for the broader equity market

March

03/31/06

03/30/06

03/29/06......Quarter-end markups are a market myth, even for the stocks most sensitive to them

03/29/06

03/28/06

03/27/06

03/26/06......Positions in the futures market is negative for equities; New highs in breadth do not prevent volatility spikes

03/20/06......Presidential approval ratings at lows while the DJIA is at highs; Penny stock volume is at a new record high

03/20/06

03/17/06

03/16/06

03/15/06......Stock/Bond ratio is at an extreme; SPX / NDX divergence; New Highs; Decreasing bulls during an up market

03/15/06

03/14/06

03/13/06

03/12/06......Volatile breadth readings in uptrends vs downtrends; A look at jobs report reactions in stocks and bonds

03/05/06......The S&P has gone three years without a 10% correction

03/03/06

03/02/06

03/01/06

February

02/28/06......The impact of yield curve inversions depend on the state of investor sentiment at the time of the inversion

02/23/06......Natural Gas finally showing signs of a low; Investor's Intelligence bulls have backed off

02/20/06......Emotional buying has taken control of SMH

02/09/06......The Olympics may exert some influence on specific stocks

02/07/06......Possibly exhausted sellers in MDT; Looking for 3% jump in XAU

02/05/06......An update of several of the studies we've gone over recently

02/01/06......Mutual fund cash levels are near record lows, despite rates

January

01/29/06......A broad review shows mostly neutral, some long-term negatives

01/24/06......Small-caps at new highs while other indexes 2% below theirs

01/22/06......2-to-1 breadth flip-flop; Extremely large one-day declines

01/18/06......Natural Gas is exhibiting a pattern that suggests a low soon

01/12/06......Small-cap versus large-cap assets have reached an extreme

01/10/06......The VXN is rising along with NDX; Up days on lower volume

01/08/06......Highly volatile starts to January; OTCBB volume

01/04/06......Recent momentum in gold is likely unsustainable

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