All of the extremes in our indicators that we've been seeing over the past two days have helped to push the Intermediate-term Indicator Score to its most-stretched level in nearly 5 years.

The current reading has been matched or exceeded only four times in the 10-year history of the model.

Here are the dates, along with the S&P 500's performance going forward:

06/04/03:  The S&P rose 2.9% over the next 10 days.  The gains were all given back during the subsequent correction.

01/07/04:  The S&P rose 3.3% over the next 12 days.  The gains were all given back during the subsequent correction.

11/26/04:  The S&P rose 2.9% over the next 25 days.  The gains were all given back during the subsequent correction.

12/15/06:  The S&P rose 2.4% over the next 42 days.  The gains were all given back during the subsequent correction.

Each time, the S&P was able to keep chugging higher for 2 weeks up to 2 months, but the gains were relatively muted.  And also each time, which we have seen time and time again in these comments over the past two weeks or so, the additional short-term gains were given back during the subsequent corrections.

Something interesting to note is that the Nasdaq 100 fared significantly worse than the S&P beginning almost immediately after those dates, and lasting anywhere from a couple of weeks to a few months afterward.

The chart below is the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&P 500, with the dashed vertical lines representing the four dates mentioned above.  A rising line would mean the Nasdaq 100 is out-performing the S&P 500.

It's hard to make out on a couple of them, but in each case the NDX was either immediately or within days going to start rising less (or even declining) while the S&P trudged along.

This is what we often see at momentum peaks with excessive sentiment - the higher-beta stocks start to falter, and the rest of the stock universe might be able to keep it up for a while, but eventually it all comes back to Earth.

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